filter said:
interesting analysis of speculator psychology, thanks for articulating your thoughts Ken!
Thanks, Dan. Appreciate the rep attempt ... it's the thought that counts, after all.
filter said:
How long would it take to see 10,000 sales of LLLL.net domains to end-users at $100 each ...? If there were 30 such sales every day, would take a bit less than a year. That's a big if ...... Likewise imagine 1000 new domainers coming in with $1000 each to speculate. As for established players - I suspect many already bought their share prior to the February premium buyout - if a handful still see the "vacuum and flip" end-stage play worthwhile that may accelerate the final phase of a buyout, but just by a few weeks ....
I'm guessing it will be a combination of the above. I also see the possibility that some old school domainers and/or others who sat out the LLLL.com buyout - veteran domainers, that is, who have not already stocked up on high grade LLLL.nets (for the same reasons they did not "buy in" to the whole LLLL.com thing) - will "see the light" and come to make substantial investments in the LLLL.net market (since you can still get in big for cheap, whether w/hand regs - still good ones left - or low priced aftermarket premiums). If that happens - and like you said that is a big IF - the more optimistic predictions of an earlier, rather than later, LLLL net buyout may turn out to be the more accurate. Of course, as all things LLLL.net, the probability of this occurring is in direct proportion to the market valuation of LLLL.coms.
I'm also beginning to see the very real possibility that standard prices on premium LLLL.nets getting up to $50 or even $100 per may not require a total LLLL.net buyout. The premiums could very well reach those levels imho with 30% of the worst LLLL.net unregistered. In other words, if/when prices for LLLL.com reach $100 minimum, with the worst premium LLLL.com no longer available for under $500, premium LLLL.net ought to be fetching $50 minimum, possibly more. This would not be due to a buyout but simply to their attractiveness as an increasingly accepted alternative to their much more pricey dot com counterparts.
I sometimes think too much is made of comparisons between the LLLL.com and LLLL.net trajectories. There are points of similarity to be sure ... but history does not
always (nor all that often, really) repeat itself.
:imho:
