We've already had the OLED discussion here:
http://www.namepros.com/dot-mobi/332147-oled-displays-may-closer-than-we.html
Consensus is that OLED will be HUGE when it does arrive. However I agree that it's realistically 10 years away from being mainstream.
That doesn't mean OLED names won't have considerable value sooner... They'll probably be mainstream in MP3 players, cell phones, digital cameras, etc within 5 years. But 40' OLED tv's are a long, long ways from being affordable.
I regged my first OLED domain names before most of you started domaining, so pardon my "know it all" attitude here, but what evidence honestly suggests that they'll be in mainstream tvs within 5 years?
It costs Intel pennies to put together top of the line desktop and notebook CPUs. It also costs them billions of dollars getting the necessary technology to produce the very first chip. Would it be sensible for Intel to charge a low price for their chips just because they can produce them cheaply? What about recovering their investment?
Some of the companies (eg. Eastman Kodak) have patents on many OLED manufacturing processes/applications. They could seriously prevent many competitors (and hence price wars) if they wanted to.
It amazes me how many people think OLED in new... It's been around for a long, long time (just like LCD and plasmas...). Here's a good site for OLED info (it's not mine:
http://www.oled-info.com/history ).
I'll let some of you newer tech fans in on a little secret... Sometimes
hype is better than actual products. Just because Intel said they'd have a terahertz 70 core CPU here within a few years does not mean they will... Nor does a manufacturer saying they'll have OLED televisions of a certain size in a certain year suggest that they will...
Those of us who've been following OLED for years know of the many setbacks there have been along the years.
I can give you source here:
1.
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,118852-page,1/article.html
Remember Apple's 3ghz Power Mac promise? Well, it fell short at the time. Weren't we supposed to see 5ghz Pentium 4's half a decade ago? That cool
OQO was supposed to be nearing production in April 2002... I know because I was working as a WM at the time and wanted one of these sooooo badly. Well, by the time the bloody thing hit the market, (2+ years in vaporware later) it wasn't so special anymore.
I'm not saying OLED is vaporware, that OLED won't succeed, etc. All I'm saying is that it'll be far more than 5 years before it hits the market... And like I said earlier, as someone who's been following OLED for what's going on 4 years now, I think my opinion is worth more than someone who just found out about OLED a few days ago and doesn't know 1/4 of the facts surrounding OLED technology, the history of OLED, etc.
If OLED is to be as big as some of you hope -- why do you care when it hits the market? Whether oled.com is worth $1mm+ 5 years from now, 10 years from now, 15 years from now... One thing is clear... If what is expected of oled holds true, those of you with premium oled-related names will be
very, very happy you chose to invest. Isn't that all that really matters?
I'd like to add that companies will use them in mp3 players, cameras, and other small battery operated devices much sooner since the lifespan factor doesn't matter much on battery operated devices since the screens aren't used that long continuously. Also the screen size is less than 3" on those devices so it wouldn't affect the price of the product as much.
