poll How much longer will we see big sums being paid for domains?

[domain invest3r]

All,

I have been doing some research recently, particularly on the future of domaining. I have come into this game late and what with the exponential progression of technology I am sure this is a question many of you will have also already pondered on. "How much longer will be see big sums being paid for domain?"

Whilst it is clear that the internet will be an integral part of our lives almost indefinitely (unles you know otherwise!), the value of domains is certainly an area for discussion. Granted they will never cease to exist but their usefulness in the face of emerging tech is a question. How much of an effect on future pricing will the below have for example:

• China and other countries/markets joining
• The infinite multitude of alternative domain extensions now available, watering down the market
• Artificial Intelligence- I recently watched a video by an "internet founding father" who seemed to know his stuff although I am not entirely sure of his credentials, which basically suggests domain names will trend towards being obsolete over the course of the next 5-10 years

Grateful for your thoughts.

I hope the poll works!

DI

 

[hookbox]

Three quick points:

(1) You're confusing branding with domain names.
(2) I carry an instant memorization device with me at all times (almost).
(3) Most of the dealings I have with companies on a local basis have ZERO dependence on their website (I had a job done by a plumber last month and I don't even know if they have a website)



Yes. Many Companies advertise their brands. The relationship of brand to domain varies VASTLY depending on the type and scope of their needs. More often than not, the need is vastly overstated by domainers who tend focus their attention to national/international brands which biases their understanding.



Yes and no. What you say is true; however, the brand is often greater than domain and they are NOT the same thing.

To answer the question in the OP.
Domains will always have value dependent on the same three factors that exist today:

1) Marketing return on investment
2) Vanity
3) Whether you can find idiots with more money than sense.

The likelihood is that (1) will reduce over time but (2) and (3) sometimes seem to have limitless potential.

1. Hate to tell you but anything that helps us remember a company is a form of branding.

2. Rarely when I see something I may need at some point in time do I write it down on my "Memorization Device" but my memory recalls that domain name pretty easily 99% of the time.

3. Not sure how you find local companies, I threw out my Yellow Pages years ago. When I do look I find them online and if they don't have a website I find a company that does. It is part of the narrowing down process of who I want doing my plumbing. I want someone who is extremely professional and some of what helps me narrow down the hundreds of options is their website. If they don't have an online presence then I find someone that does. I can tell from their website 9 times out of 10 if I want them in my house or not.

 

[ttfan]

I want someone who is extremely professional and some of what helps me narrow down the hundreds of options is their website. If they don't have an online presence then I find someone that does. I can tell from their website 9 times out of 10 if I want them in my house or not.

Yes I agree you can tell from their WEBSITE, but not neccesarily from their domain, which is what we're discussing here.
If their website looks professional, I would not care too much about their domain (or the extension), as long as the domain name is not too bizarre.

 

[21x20]

It wasn't related to domaining, just how things could change online.. For example, I can make a website display inside a Facebook app. Negating the need for a url.. Just one example.

No one said it, so let me point out what a horrible idea to build a website inside a facebook app. While it's certainly an alternative, it doesn't mean it's a good one.

 

[XKUK]

1 WORD and short .COM'S WILL ALWAYS BE KING.

how are you going to compete with domains like Cars.com, Z.com, Insurance.com.

the new extensions will have value but nothing in comparison to the best .com domains.

 

[korganian]

Three quick points:

(1) You're confusing branding with domain names.
(2) I carry an instant memorization device with me at all times (almost).
(3) Most of the dealings I have with companies on a local basis have ZERO dependence on their website (I had a job done by a plumber last month and I don't even know if they have a website)



Yes. Many Companies advertise their brands. The relationship of brand to domain varies VASTLY depending on the type and scope of their needs. More often than not, the need is vastly overstated by domainers who tend focus their attention to national/international brands which biases their understanding.



Yes and no. What you say is true; however, the brand is often greater than domain and they are NOT the same thing.

To answer the question in the OP.
Domains will always have value dependent on the same three factors that exist today:

1) Marketing return on investment
2) Vanity
3) Whether you can find idiots with more money than sense.

The likelihood is that (1) will reduce over time but (2) and (3) sometimes seem to have limitless potential.

Thanks for your personal opinions, but I'm afraid your personal habits are unusual as surveys are showing something like 85% of the U.S population is mainly using the internet to find even local businesses.

If you read some of the many success stories from companies which have paid huge sums for great domain names, you will learn that the domain they purchased often saved so much in marketing cost that it paid for itself in only a few months and now provides additional FREE marketing benefits FOREVER for their company.

 

[hookbox]

Yes I agree you can tell from their WEBSITE, but not neccesarily from their domain, which is what we're discussing here.
If their website looks professional, I would not care too much about their domain (or the extension), as long as the domain name is not too bizarre.

I know what we're discussing here. I was referring to what DU said in point #3 below. That is why I mentioned the website.

(3) Most of the dealings I have with companies on a local basis have ZERO dependence on their website (I had a job done by a plumber last month and I don't even know if they have a website)

 

[21x20]

I know what we're discussing here. I was referring to what DU said in point #3 below. That is why I mentioned the website.

(3) Most of the dealings I have with companies on a local basis have ZERO dependence on their website (I had a job done by a plumber last month and I don't even know if they have a website)

But to the point of the discussion.... a local plumber certainly doesn't need to own "plumbers.com" or any high priced domain for that matter. If they wanted a site, joebobsplumbing.com would be just fine, or any slight variation to find a unique name.

On the other hand, a company that helps people find plumbers in various locals would definitely pay big bucks for plumbers.com ... or a major plumbing brand... Or a plumbing company servicing a large metro area (like NYC) could easily afford to pay big bucks to save tons on ads because the number of times you need to see "plumbers.com" to remember it vs "johnsnycplumbing.com" is vastly different and a market the size of NYC, this quickly works out. (Surely they'd expand elsewhere after success in NYC.)

 

[hookbox]

But to the point of the discussion.... a local plumber certainly doesn't need to own "plumbers.com" or any high priced domain for that matter. If they wanted a site, joebobsplumbing.com would be just fine, or any slight variation to find a unique name.

On the other hand, a company that helps people find plumbers in various locals would definitely pay big bucks for plumbers.com ... or a major plumbing brand... Or a plumbing company servicing a large metro area (like NYC) could easily afford to pay big bucks to save tons on ads because the number of times you need to see "plumbers.com" to remember it vs "johnsnycplumbing.com" is vastly different and a market the size of NYC, this quickly works out. (Surely they'd expand elsewhere after success in NYC.)

I agree that you don't need to own a category killer but you do need to own a memorable domain and memorable domain names will always be in demand.

 

[Eckhart]

All,

I have been doing some research recently, particularly on the future of domaining. I have come into this game late and what with the exponential progression of technology I am sure this is a question many of you will have also already pondered on. "How much longer will be see big sums being paid for domain?"

Whilst it is clear that the internet will be an integral part of our lives almost indefinitely (unles you know otherwise!), the value of domains is certainly an area for discussion. Granted they will never cease to exist but their usefulness in the face of emerging tech is a question. How much of an effect on future pricing will the below have for example:

• China and other countries/markets joining
• The infinite multitude of alternative domain extensions now available, watering down the market
• Artificial Intelligence- I recently watched a video by an "internet founding father" who seemed to know his stuff although I am not entirely sure of his credentials, which basically suggests domain names will trend towards being obsolete over the course of the next 5-10 years

Grateful for your thoughts.

I hope the poll works!

DI

It's difficult to not have doubts about an industry if you're just beginning to know it. My perspective is this:

1 - Most people on Earth don't have Internet access yet. Only 40% of people have access to internet TODAY, so the web has huge development room, think about how many more domain names will be needed by the time we reach 50%.. then 60%... and so on. The more people, the more demand.

2 - New technologies are not likely to change EVERYTHING in 5-10 years. Let's compare with bitcoin. Amazing technology, transfer money instantly anywhere in the world for insignificant fees, many believed it will take the world by storm, cash will become obsolete in a few years and banks will disappear, but after 6 years since its inception the number of people using bitcoin is still VERY small. Bitcoin is accepted in a lot of places but that doesn't mean it's mainstream, it's just another alternative, we like to use btc but also cash, credit cards etc. Finally, any new technology that can replace domain names will most likely become just another alternative, and replacing it completely will take many more decades of transitions.

3 - If you're a good domainer you are also a good entrepreneur and sales person. Domaining is amazing for getting sales skills fast, opposed to other industries. You don't have to risk much, you can start small and grow from there. The "product" is digital, fast, you're not selling real estate or whatever has a big sales cycle, you can have many sales in a short time-frame which accelerates your learning process. After you learn a few lessons you can become profitable quick too, buy for $1, sell for $5. Rinse and repeat! With time you'll get more and more quality domains and pay less and less for mistakes. Gotta love the industry margins too. And finally, even if domains become obsolete in 10 years (not gonna happen), you'll be an awesome entrepreneur and sales person, you'll be able to sell anything you like, start any business venture that tickles your fancy.

 

[DU]

I know what we're discussing here. I was referring to what DU said in point #3 below. That is why I mentioned the website.

(3) Most of the dealings I have with companies on a local basis have ZERO dependence on their website (I had a job done by a plumber last month and I don't even know if they have a website)

I'm odd because I don't buy books based on the cover either

To be clear - I'm not suggesting that companies should neglect their website. I am saying that consumers should be more educated than to rely on a website for their information. Basically, you're relying on non-core competency to tell you something about their business.

That said, what domainers define as a need for what they defined as a high quality website domain is vastly overstated for the majority of businesses that are simply small scale. What matters is that you have an effective digital marketing strategy. A domain is a piece of that - the relative size of that component dependent on the overall strategy. A decent social presence is often far more important.

1. Hate to tell you but anything that helps us remember a company is a form of branding.

2. Rarely when I see something I may need at some point in time do I write it down on my "Memorization Device" but my memory recalls that domain name pretty easily 99% of the time.

3. Not sure how you find local companies, I threw out my Yellow Pages years ago. When I do look I find them online and if they don't have a website I find a company that does. It is part of the narrowing down process of who I want doing my plumbing. I want someone who is extremely professional and some of what helps me narrow down the hundreds of options is their website. If they don't have an online presence then I find someone that does. I can tell from their website 9 times out of 10 if I want them in my house or not.

My "memorization device" is simply my phone. It can record phone numbers, websites, company names.. it can even take a photo that gives me the perfect record of what / where to contact. It also lets me know, for example with landscapers, which house they were working on at the time. I have offloaded the need to remember

You search online and pick a name that has a website... then what? You rank them on quality of website?

Quick example for me. If I want to have my boat cleaned in Fort Lauderdale... who should I call based on a quick analysis?

1 WORD and short .COM'S WILL ALWAYS BE KING.

how are you going to compete with domains like Cars.com, Z.com, Insurance.com.

the new extensions will have value but nothing in comparison to the best .com domains.

Who is trying to compete with Cars.com, Z.com, Insurance.com? WTF is z.com? It's 1 letter but so what?

Thanks for your personal opinions, but I'm afraid your personal habits are unusual as surveys are showing something like 85% of the U.S population is mainly using the internet to find even local businesses.

If you read some of the many success stories from companies which have paid huge sums for great domain names, you will learn that the domain they purchased often saved so much in marketing cost that it paid for itself in only a few months and now provides additional FREE marketing benefits FOREVER for their company.

Again it depends vastly on who and what you are. A national company, an international company is very different from a small and local business. Whether a domain pays for itself in a small scale market is a different set of equations than whether a million dollar domain pays for itself. Regardless, it all needs to fit into a budget that is created for a business' economic circumstances and goals and performance capacity. It's a constant re-evaluation process.

The reality is that most people on domain forums are not dealing with these types of one word killed names names. A lot of companies are not dependent on a domain as first point of contact. The sales and marketing channels are diverse and domainers tend to focus on one and claim that businesses just "don't get the internet" when more often domainers "don't get the economics of small business".

Domainers look at sales of Z.com and think it's relevant to their holdings picked up for $10-$1000 last week when it's night and day. The value of my house is largely unaffected by the fact that Petra Stunt spent $85 million of her Daddy's money on her home.

Also - FOREVER is a very long time.

I agree that you don't need to own a category killer but you do need to own a memorable domain and memorable domain names will always be in demand.

Define memorable

 

[Templr]

You make some fair points.

• Large sums for top names should start seeing a reality check, with not-com alternatives that yield good SEO becoming more visible. The price of the not-com could rise from the 2-5% of the .com with the fall? IMO

• Virtual Reality 2015 is virtually here. To be the great encompassing force surrounding our Internet, I would give it 30 years.

• The domain is the digital address required to locate, at best branded resources, etc.

• The App, of course was never to replace the domain, and it never will. The App is developed for mobile because mobile technology is behind laptops/desktops and an application is required to use online.

The App is useful on mobile but there are too many. On can't have 100-200 Apps on you phone so what is next? Cards?

Deep usage of the Internet via Mobile has many draw backs and as mobiles are becoming bigger (again) and as technology develops, the App could disappear!

 

[hookbox]

I'm odd because I don't buy books based on the cover either

To be clear - I'm not suggesting that companies should neglect their website. I am saying that consumers should be more educated than to rely on a website for their information. Basically, you're relying on non-core competency to tell you something about their business.

That said, what domainers define as a need for what they defined as a high quality website domain is vastly overstated for the majority of businesses that are simply small scale. What matters is that you have an effective digital marketing strategy. A domain is a piece of that - the relative size of that component dependent on the overall strategy. A decent social presence is often far more important.



My "memorization device" is simply my phone. It can record phone numbers, websites, company names.. it can even take a photo that gives me the perfect record of what / where to contact. It also lets me know, for example with landscapers, which house they were working on at the time. I have offloaded the need to remember

You search online and pick a name that has a website... then what? You rank them on quality of website?

Quick example for me. If I want to have my boat cleaned in Fort Lauderdale... who should I call based on a quick analysis?




Who is trying to compete with Cars.com, Z.com, Insurance.com? WTF is z.com? It's 1 letter but so what?



Again it depends vastly on who and what you are. A national company, an international company is very different from a small and local business. Whether a domain pays for itself in a small scale market is a different set of equations than whether a million dollar domain pays for itself. Regardless, it all needs to fit into a budget that is created for a business' economic circumstances and goals and performance capacity. It's a constant re-evaluation process.

The reality is that most people on domain forums are not dealing with these types of one word killed names names. A lot of companies are not dependent on a domain as first point of contact. The sales and marketing channels are diverse and domainers tend to focus on one and claim that businesses just "don't get the internet" when more often domainers "don't get the economics of small business".

Domainers look at sales of Z.com and think it's relevant to their holdings picked up for $10-$1000 last week when it's night and day. The value of my house is largely unaffected by the fact that Petra Stunt spent $85 million of her Daddy's money on her home.

Also - FOREVER is a very long time.



Define memorable

In any search for a viable company to do business with there has to be somewhat of a narrowing down process of a long list of candidates. Professionalism is one of the top things I look for in any company and the way to help determine that is starting from the top and working my way down. So I naturally would put my top candidates as those that have a web presence because this in my opinion is what professionalism is all about.

When you want to get your boat cleaned and don't have someone that can give you a really good recommendation then I would assume you don't stand in front of your house and yell for one but would logically go online and do a search. When you do a search I would also assume you wouldn't pick one from yellowpages.com but would search and analyze those that have a web presence because it is a very good indicator most of the time of the type of business they are. If you can give me a better starting point then I would love to hear it because I'm always looking for a good company to do all sorts of work.

We judge a book by it's cover more times then not. When I want a new car, a new boat or a new house I always judge the book by the cover first until I have a chance to understand all the other fine details. If there are ten girls all smiling sitting at bar what determines their ranking order if you have not met anyone yet?

 

[domainventure]

As long as you ask for it. Of course subject to it being a good domain, and so forth

"
How much longer will be see big sums being paid for domain?"
DI

 

[Recons.Com]

1. Business/projects/people need a way to show specific address to their content/info and URL is the only proper way to do it.
2. .com and few other extensions will have their premium designation for either whole world or specific market or both and their desirability and prices will go up faster than the rest. The rest will get some of the benefit of "trickling down".
3. apps, seo etc. cannot replace good name for your business, they can only compliment it. They depend too much on third parties (android/appstore/google/bing blocking/downgrading your content could mean an end of that channel

 

[Tytus]

The only way domain prices are going down is global collapse / recession or WWIII

 

[Domain Lead Finder]

I do not buy in to stories that domains will become obsolete and that everybody will use facebook or the likes.

Just like they said tablets will replace computers, they did not, they just gave us more options to surf. Tablets are just 25% of the total market by sales. I use my phone, I use my tablet, I use my laptop and I use my desktop.

Apps will not replace domain names any time soon. And by that I mean in the next 50 years.

 

[Eckhart]

I use my phone, I use my tablet, I use my laptop and I use my desktop.

Just as I was saying in my previous post, new technologies are more likely to become alternatives rather than replace domains.

 

[DOMAIN ILLUMINATI]

How much longer will we see big sums being paid for Domains?

As long as the (open) internet will exist.

 

[Eckhart]

"How much longer will be see big sums being paid for domain?"

Another point I'd like to make is that this question sounds like the big sums are somehow unreasonable or inflated, which cannot be further away from the truth. This is not a bubble. The bubble ended in 2001-2002, right now we are dealing with the real value of domain names.

 

[Kate]

Apps will not replace domain names any time soon.

It's obvious that nobody wants to install an app for every site, especially a first (and possibly last) visit.

It is actually funny that tablets have '.com' on their keyboards whereas it was once speculated that mobile phones would have a .mobi button. Sweet revenge.

 

[Recons.Com]

.mobi would have had a chance if
1) it was .mob
2) it priced itself just under .com
3) it provided for free some software/designs/interface etc. for mobile version of normal website

And it should have acted quick to get critical mass before m.website.com became default instead of website.mobi and later on website.com just detected mobile device and changed the look to render .mobi completely obsolete.

 

[domain invest3r]

There are less than 50% of Earth population connected to internet, also internet is still young, so domain prices will go only higher at least for next 20 years.

Hmm this is true but that 50% which is already there is trending towards moving away from .com dependence whilst the other 50% may join them and jump past using .com. This is my fear...

DI

 

[BrandChimp]

It wasn't related to domaining, just how things could change online.. For example, I can make a website display inside a Facebook app. Negating the need for a url.. Just one example.

But your users will need to go on facebook every time they want to access your site. Also, you don't truly own your website if it's in facebook. You must own your website and address to be the master of your online business.

 

[BrandChimp]

I see an opportunity to invest a lot of money in this market. I don't think it is the time to sell yet. Maybe in 2 or 3 years.

 

[BrandChimp]

1 WORD and short .COM'S WILL ALWAYS BE KING.

how are you going to compete with domains like Cars.com, Z.com, Insurance.com.

the new extensions will have value but nothing in comparison to the best .com domains.

I remember the war between AMD and intel. Gamers used to say AMD will always be the king for playing pc games. I still think .com for the win