poll How much longer will we see big sums being paid for domains?

[domain invest3r]

All,

I have been doing some research recently, particularly on the future of domaining. I have come into this game late and what with the exponential progression of technology I am sure this is a question many of you will have also already pondered on. "How much longer will be see big sums being paid for domain?"

Whilst it is clear that the internet will be an integral part of our lives almost indefinitely (unles you know otherwise!), the value of domains is certainly an area for discussion. Granted they will never cease to exist but their usefulness in the face of emerging tech is a question. How much of an effect on future pricing will the below have for example:

• China and other countries/markets joining
• The infinite multitude of alternative domain extensions now available, watering down the market
• Artificial Intelligence- I recently watched a video by an "internet founding father" who seemed to know his stuff although I am not entirely sure of his credentials, which basically suggests domain names will trend towards being obsolete over the course of the next 5-10 years

Grateful for your thoughts.

I hope the poll works!

DI

 

[Eckhart]

I still think .com for the win

Haha change your shirt before you say that

 

[offersity]

The way I look at this is more or less like the car market.

Gasoline powered cars are here to stay for years to come, but their market is definitely challenged by the growing 'new' tech like hybrid and electric and also hydrogen.

Long time ago they tried to push electric car to the market and they failed. These days they come up with better offerings and the market is definitely readier.

They did the same thing within the domain industry, they introduced info, biz and us just 15 years ago and all failed terribly.

I guess if the dotcom had the staying power of the tire industry, than investing in new tlds would probably be a waste of time.

 

[BrandChimp]

Haha change your shirt before you say that

.XYZ will beat .net :p

and it's a great competitor to .com
When you can't get the .com you want you can still afford a .XYZ

 

[bigbagofbricks]

But your users will need to go on facebook every time they want to access your site. Also, you don't truly own your website if it's in facebook. You must own your website and address to be the master of your online business.

It was just an example.. I'm not saying it will happen, just that it could. I only browse about 15 sites daily. That could drop in the future.

 

[james haw]

Are domains gong to be gone? Will apps (or Facebook app) or something else replace them?

No!

I'll come back to that statement in 30 years and bet it's still accessed via "NamePros.com"!


The internet is vastly bigger in complexity than what is being suggested and discussed. And neither Facebook nor Google or anyone else as a single entity will "take over" this global and shared structure. They do not define it, even by marketing and providing some amazing option, they are still just a part of it.


It's this simple:
We will always need a unique identifier to access devices and resources on the internet.

Currently we use IP address, and domain names to map to IP addresses for our comfort.

This could be changed, it could be replaced by something else. However, factoring in the absolute necessity for unique identifiers, essentially to be able to say "I want that one", what could such a simple identifier be?

Is there anything better or more simple to easily identify something than "words" - aka domain names? No, I don't believe there is

(Well, numbers if you are Chinese, but that's still a domain name :D)


And I believe, therefore, that "big sums" will always be paid for domain names. More businesses start up every day. I don't think this venture is going anywhere at all

For example, I can make a website display inside a Facebook app. Negating the need for a url.. Just one example.

How would (eg) Asda/Walmart's entire product catalogue (tens of thousands of items) go through a 3rd party (Facebook) app? It's not practical. Facebook do not have access to the company's database so they'd essentially just be a forwarder. What is the point or benefit of a forwarder? Even with Facebook APIs, wouldn't Asda/Walmart have their own app?

Smaller, tiny business might use this instead of a website/domain name of their own, but I doubt this will affect much domain name trade.


As for a takeover and remove the need for URLs, this isn't going to happen even in Facebook's wildest wettest dreams.



Can apps take away our need for domain names

Moving on from Facebook and just "apps in general":

Apps have less functionality than browsers, and always will based on their nature.
Apps link directly to the apps owner, such as Asda/Walmart app, Dominos app (hmm...), with no where to type in a domain name, if you could type a domain name into an app, then it's a browser not an app.

So if apps took over there would be no domain names, but then, to be able to state "I want that one", we'd need the app from the website we want to browse, right?

So, instead of domain names to state which resource we want, we'd have an app for every website, in the world? Nah.

We only use apps for the major sites or ones we frequent, they cannot replace browsers, and browsers need some kind of unique indentifier/URL, and again, domain names/words seem to be better than anything.

Domain names are safe!

Artificial Intelligence- I recently watched a video by an "internet founding father" who seemed to know his stuff although I am not entirely sure of his credentials, which basically suggests domain names will trend towards being obsolete over the course of the next 5-10 years

And be replaced with what? Can you tell us the name of the video or some info so we can see it?

Head & Shoulders have been telling us all for years we should use their product or we'll get dandruff - "Hey, you don't have dandruff" - "Exactly".

But, I don't use Head & shoulders, and don't have dandruff... Just because I'm a blazing mad rebel.

Sorry, but I need to have some info before even contemplating what this might be about. Especially "within 5-10 years". This is nonsense. Such mammoth things do not change that quickly these days as too much depends on it all.

Seriously, imagine right now telling every business, web designer, developer, server admin, registrar, forum, blog owner, search engine, and many more, that "In 5-10 years you won't use a domain name".
Do you have any idea the sort of planning that would take, and how many people would be involved across the globe?

Hell, it took many years to even begin to get business to go over to IPv6, and that was an infinitely simple operation compared to "no more URLs or domain names".


Domain names are going nowhere.


Some scientist or philosopher is always going on about "something" that's going to come along and change the world, the planet, or the internet, and let's face it, the millions of huge predictions people churn out never happen 99.999% of the time.
It's mostly marketing hype, or someone trying to make/remake a name for themselves. That said, it would be interesting to know the source of this "everything is going to change and domains obsolete".

If there are ten girls all smiling sitting at bar what determines their ranking order if you have not met anyone yet?

Ranking order? I see we have different ideals. I'd be hoping for 20 shoes strewn around my bedroom

 

[mwzd]

Has anyone even seen the 'premium' registration and renewal prices on good ntlds?

It seems $30 minimum annual renewals are the new norm.

And domain prices, even from registrars are $x,xxx PER YEAR.

And in this world you expect prices to come down?

If anything I'd say prices on premium .coms will only go higher.

 

[bigbagofbricks]

When I posted "negating the need for a url", I meant negating the need for a very good one.

And I certainly never suggested that Walmart would be inside Facebook. But the world is moving faster and faster towards a web where a few big websites dominate.

In Vietnam, people use "vatgia" and "tnhvietnam" for products. The businesses they link to don't need to pay for a premium domain since people just click a link. More and more companies here are only using facebook as well.

But even in New York, a hotel won't really need a good domain. Tripadvisor and Yelp give a link. So I guess I don't see much of a future where "manhattanhotel dot com" has any value. An example on Sedo.. spamanhattan dot com for $79k. How much will that be worth when none of their traffic comes from having those keywords in their domain and all of their business comes from SEO and sites that rate recreation / businesses. As for business cards, Spa Manhattan is a pretty awful name for a business catering to luxury.

I see the value for those keyword domains names falling. One word domains, good brandables and whatever is happening with China will always be valuable but things like "londonrestaurant dot com" or "hotelinlondon dot com" ($55k on Sedo) will never be bought for big premiums by end users in a future where nobody types the link and Google doesn't care what your site is called. When I google stuff, I glance at the domain to see if I recognize it but it's mostly irrelevant to me.

 

[artstar]

Are domains gong to be gone? Will apps (or Facebook app) or something else replace them?

No!

I'll come back to that statement in 30 years and bet it's still accessed via "NamePros.com"!


The internet is vastly bigger in complexity than what is being suggested and discussed. And neither Facebook nor Google or anyone else as a single entity will "take over" this global and shared structure. They do not define it, even by marketing and providing some amazing option, they are still just a part of it.


It's this simple:
We will always need a unique identifier to access devices and resources on the internet.

Currently we use IP address, and domain names to map to IP addresses for our comfort.

This could be changed, it could be replaced by something else. However, factoring in the absolute necessity for unique identifiers, essentially to be able to say "I want that one", what could such a simple identifier be?

Is there anything better or more simple to easily identify something than "words" - aka domain names? No, I don't believe there is

(Well, numbers if you are Chinese, but that's still a domain name :D)


And I believe, therefore, that "big sums" will always be paid for domain names. More businesses start up every day. I don't think this venture is going anywhere at all






How would (eg) Asda/Walmart's entire product catalogue (tens of thousands of items) go through a 3rd party (Facebook) app? It's not practical. Facebook do not have access to the company's database so they'd essentially just be a forwarder. What is the point or benefit of a forwarder? Even with Facebook APIs, wouldn't Asda/Walmart have their own app?

Smaller, tiny business might use this instead of a website/domain name of their own, but I doubt this will affect much domain name trade.


As for a takeover and remove the need for URLs, this isn't going to happen even in Facebook's wildest wettest dreams.



Can apps take away our need for domain names

Moving on from Facebook and just "apps in general":

Apps have less functionality than browsers, and always will based on their nature.
Apps link directly to the apps owner, such as Asda/Walmart app, Dominos app (hmm...), with no where to type in a domain name, if you could type a domain name into an app, then it's a browser not an app.

So if apps took over there would be no domain names, but then, to be able to state "I want that one", we'd need the app from the website we want to browse, right?

So, instead of domain names to state which resource we want, we'd have an app for every website, in the world? Nah.

We only use apps for the major sites or ones we frequent, they cannot replace browsers, and browsers need some kind of unique indentifier/URL, and again, domain names/words seem to be better than anything.

Domain names are safe!




And be replaced with what? Can you tell us the name of the video or some info so we can see it?

Head & Shoulders have been telling us all for years we should use their product or we'll get dandruff - "Hey, you don't have dandruff" - "Exactly".

But, I don't use Head & shoulders, and don't have dandruff... Just because I'm a blazing mad rebel.

Sorry, but I need to have some info before even contemplating what this might be about. Especially "within 5-10 years". This is nonsense. Such mammoth things do not change that quickly these days as too much depends on it all.

Seriously, imagine right now telling every business, web designer, developer, server admin, registrar, forum, blog owner, search engine, and many more, that "In 5-10 years you won't use a domain name".
Do you have any idea the sort of planning that would take, and how many people would be involved across the globe?

Hell, it took many years to even begin to get business to go over to IPv6, and that was an infinitely simple operation compared to "no more URLs or domain names".


Domain names are going nowhere.


Some scientist or philosopher is always going on about "something" that's going to come along and change the world, the planet, or the internet, and let's face it, the millions of huge predictions people churn out never happen 99.999% of the time.
It's mostly marketing hype, or someone trying to make/remake a name for themselves. That said, it would be interesting to know the source of this "everything is going to change and domains obsolete".





Ranking order? I see we have different ideals. I'd be hoping for 20 shoes strewn around my bedroom

Who created the internet ?? Who created google? Who created Facebook? The same entity controls it all!

 

[james haw]

Who created the internet ??

What do you mean by "internet" specifically? The original protocols? The idea of packets or their transfer between two points?

The current internet is a humongous global network which exists due to hundreds of thousands of people, companies, and governments. No-one person, group, or company created what we have today.

Who created google?
Who created Facebook?

These questions are also ambiguous. The original idea, scripts, company?

The discussion is about future value of domain names and the potential replacement of them. I don't see how two websites have any bearing on that

The same entity controls it all!

Which entity is that?


No-one owns the internet as it's not "one single thing". However there are bodies and groups who govern its progress and propose and plan changes and improvements. But, there are many.

And none of this matters. The internet is a network with devices which needs a unique identifier, and as said, what better identifier for us is there than words or domain names? Which is the discussion. I cannot see how a collection of devices like the internet could ever not need unique identifiers of some kind.

I cannot predict the future, and something may come up which changes everything, and I'll say "Oh, that's interesting". But I'm not sure what, as there will always need to be identifiers when there are a choice of resources to be obtained.

 

[Recons.Com]

When I posted "negating the need for a url", I meant negating the need for a very good one.

And I certainly never suggested that Walmart would be inside Facebook. But the world is moving faster and faster towards a web where a few big websites dominate.

In Vietnam, people use "vatgia" and "tnhvietnam" for products. The businesses they link to don't need to pay for a premium domain since people just click a link. More and more companies here are only using facebook as well.

But even in New York, a hotel won't really need a good domain. Tripadvisor and Yelp give a link. So I guess I don't see much of a future where "manhattanhotel dot com" has any value. An example on Sedo.. spamanhattan dot com for $79k. How much will that be worth when none of their traffic comes from having those keywords in their domain and all of their business comes from SEO and sites that rate recreation / businesses. As for business cards, Spa Manhattan is a pretty awful name for a business catering to luxury.

I see the value for those keyword domains names falling. One word domains, good brandables and whatever is happening with China will always be valuable but things like "londonrestaurant dot com" or "hotelinlondon dot com" ($55k on Sedo) will never be bought for big premiums by end users in a future where nobody types the link and Google doesn't care what your site is called. When I google stuff, I glance at the domain to see if I recognize it but it's mostly irrelevant to me.

A business that relies only on tripadvisor/yelp/fb etc. for its traffic and lets its clients to find it and its content only via third parties has no future.

 

[bigbagofbricks]

A business that relies only on tripadvisor/yelp/fb etc. for its traffic and lets its clients to find it and its content only via third parties has no future.

If you needed to get dry cleaning done tomorrow where you live, how would you decide where to go?

Or if you were going to visa Prague.. Would you type "hotels dot prague", "hotels in prague dot com" or "tripadvisor dot com"?

I don't think businesses that survive of tripadvisor or yelp have no future.. I've been to a lot of places in the last five years and always use sites like tripadvisor etc. I know not to google and get stung by a bad hotel or restaurant with the best SEO.

 

[Recons.Com]

If I need hotels in Prague, I'll go to marriott.com, hyatt.com, hilton.com...

 

[bigbagofbricks]

Well you should start looking at tripadvisor and you're in the minority. The Hilton and Marriot come in well down the list for best 5 star hotels in Prague.

 

[DU]

If I need hotels in Prague, I'll go to marriott.com, hyatt.com, hilton.com...

You'd also be paying more than you should.

Has anyone even seen the 'premium' registration and renewal prices on good ntlds?
It seems $30 minimum annual renewals are the new norm.
And domain prices, even from registrars are $x,xxx PER YEAR.
And in this world you expect prices to come down?
If anything I'd say prices on premium .coms will only go higher.

Seems you've lost your .TV hat ! You know the one where everyone in .TV land talked about how Premiums held everything back

You also know that these prices are listed because they are listed. You also know that these are likely negotiable. You also can't ignore the fact that some TLDs are free, under $2 etc.

I don't think there's a lot of difference between a registry wanting X,XXX and a domainer wanting X,XXX if it was freely available. If renewals continue to increase I'm sure the relative number of investors would decrease making names more available... it's all a very weird supply / demand situation and will probably get weirder.

You can see changes in a micro level with GoDaddy coupon changes. One of the .com arguments is the contractual price controls that are in place that run counter to the gTLDS. It's going to just get weirder imho.

 

[mwzd]

How does any of what you say make you think domains will become cheaper?

In fact the gist of what you're saying is that prices - reg and renewal will increase, which is what I'm saying.

As for .tv, I never bought anything with a premium renewal, wouldn't in a ntld either.

 

[alcy]

there was atime internet did not exist, there will be a time when internet will not exist.

like every other single thing in history. especially tecchnologically speaking.

it's just called progress and evolution.

but ... it's not going to be tomorrow.

 

[DU]

In any search for a viable company to do business with there has to be somewhat of a narrowing down process of a long list of candidates. Professionalism is one of the top things I look for in any company and the way to help determine that is starting from the top and working my way down. So I naturally would put my top candidates as those that have a web presence because this in my opinion is what professionalism is all about.

When you want to get your boat cleaned and don't have someone that can give you a really good recommendation then I would assume you don't stand in front of your house and yell for one but would logically go online and do a search. When you do a search I would also assume you wouldn't pick one from yellowpages.com but would search and analyze those that have a web presence because it is a very good indicator most of the time of the type of business they are. If you can give me a better starting point then I would love to hear it because I'm always looking for a good company to do all sorts of work.

We judge a book by it's cover more times then not. When I want a new car, a new boat or a new house I always judge the book by the cover first until I have a chance to understand all the other fine details. If there are ten girls all smiling sitting at bar what determines their ranking order if you have not met anyone yet?

The first option is looking for recommendation. Some small businesses get 90+% of their work through referrals and the remaining through indirect referrals (i.e. Angies List). The reason I asked specific question was to see what you would do from Google.

This is a typical approach if you have no starting point.
The "red" is paid ads.
The "blue" is local ads that don't even show a website name but just a button.
The "green" are the first page of results

For a search "Fort Lauderdale Boat Cleaning"

The best "name" on the paid ad? MyYachtManagement or DetailDaddy (wtf?)

First two entries in blue? Same company with a Facebook page.
The 3rd entry does look professional - xtrememarinedetail.com - a bit of a hack but prominently displayed a referral bonus

Next in order for me:

www.yellowpages.com › Fort Lauderdale, FL
www.yoloyachtservices.com/
www.fort-lauderdale-marine-directory.com/categories/66.php
www.xtrememarinedetail.com
miami.craigslist.org/search/brw/mas
www.aplusmarinedetailing.com/
debbiesboatdetailing.com/

Two directories, one ad site... and 4 companies... with domains that you consider to be bad, good, excellent? Or do you hunt down on to page two or change your search.

I actually would recommend someone not even on this list

So how do you think the above companies would benefit from a large investment in a domain name? I had a pool remodel done and the number one factor for me was no subcontractor and personal choice of plaster type - the main decent names were larger companies, none of which meant that basic criteria

But that's my opinion and I'm happy for everyone to have their own opinion, their own method for searching and doing research. My advice to small /medium business will still always be to approach naming their company and domain as part of an overall digital plan and not focus too much one thing or the other - with a heavy focus on social platforms. People say that companies relying on third parties will fail.... I say those that don't will fail! You still need your "own home" but it just needs to be just a bit more professional than the next guy... and ahead of them where it matters (which is often Facebook, Angies List and BS sites like that).

I actually advise some people to "dress down" when meeting clients in the service industry. No one wants their lawn cut by a guy traveling around in a brand new $90,000 truck

 

[RU]

1 WORD and short .COM'S WILL ALWAYS BE KING.

how are you going to compete with domains like Cars.com, Z.com, Insurance.com.

the new extensions will have value but nothing in comparison to the best .com domains.

vine.co
Rank in United States

553

 

[DU]

How does any of what you say make you think domains will become cheaper?

In fact the gist of what you're saying is that prices - reg and renewal will increase, which is what I'm saying.

As for .tv, I never bought anything with a premium renewal, wouldn't in a ntld either.

I didn't say they would become cheaper. I was just saying that the registration costs of nTLDs have little comparative value for the .com market. The OP is talking about BIG SUMS so we can presume he means .COM in general (right?). Premium fees are fundamentally no different to "investor fees" or "squatting fees" (if you're not nice).

I don't see that a $30 renewal will suddenly mean that a current $50,000 name won't be worth $30,000 or $100,000 in 3 years... the factors I think are involved are very simple and clear. It's based on ROI, Vanity, or Foolishness. The immediate ROI will mostly be impacting on the spending power of, well, fiat money.

I think the fabric of the internet will fundamentally change in the next 10 years. I can't predict if naming will be an issue but I can't help wonder if the requirement for a unique name will work in the same way. One of the changes that I can see happening is a transition to management system that spreads the cost more equitably and builds more management into a "DNS" system while operating in a more transparent and decentralized way.

The old hierarchical system is arguably fine at the moment but the "left of the dot" principal is tired and antiquated and a mismatch with how people interact in real life.

Do I know the answer? No. Will I be wrong? Probably =)

 

[RU]

If I need hotels in Prague, I'll go to marriott.com, hyatt.com, hilton.com...

I type "hotels" or "booking" into google and click on the first result.

 

[domain invest3r]

I didn't say they would become cheaper. I was just saying that the registration costs of nTLDs have little comparative value for the .com market. The OP is talking about BIG SUMS so we can presume he means .COM in general (right?). Premium fees are fundamentally no different to "investor fees" or "squatting fees" (if you're not nice).

I don't see that a $30 renewal will suddenly mean that a current $50,000 name won't be worth $30,000 or $100,000 in 3 years... the factors I think are involved are very simple and clear. It's based on ROI, Vanity, or Foolishness. The immediate ROI will mostly be impacting on the spending power of, well, fiat money.

I think the fabric of the internet will fundamentally change in the next 10 years. I can't predict if naming will be an issue but I can't help wonder if the requirement for a unique name will work in the same way. One of the changes that I can see happening is a transition to management system that spreads the cost more equitably and builds more management into a "DNS" system while operating in a more transparent and decentralized way.

The old hierarchical system is arguably fine at the moment but the "left of the dot" principal is tired and antiquated and a mismatch with how people interact in real life.

Do I know the answer? No. Will I be wrong? Probably =)

Thanks for your input DU, your posts are very insightful and helpful. Can I ask what you mean by the left of the dot principal?

Also, I completely agree with your point on the need for a unique name gradually dissipating. For me the question is when/how and not so much if to be honest.

DI

 

[DOMAIN ILLUMINATI]

How much longer will we see big sums being paid for domains?
As long as there are big domains!

 

[domain invest3r]

How much longer will we see big sums being paid for domains?
As long as there are big domains!

Agreed but how much longer will that demand last?

DI

 

[Omar Negron]

I'm not sure when big sums won't be offered for domain names. Honestly, no body really knows. What you should focus on is what is selling now, what is valuable now and what could potentially be valuable in the future.

Artificial Intelligence- I recently watched a video by an "internet founding father" who seemed to know his stuff although I am not entirely sure of his credentials, which basically suggests domain names will trend towards being obsolete over the course of the next 5-10 years

This is interesting and I am actually working on an interview on this exact topic (artificial intelligence that is)....good stuff

-Omar

 

[domain invest3r]

I'm not sure when big sums won't be offered for domain names. Honestly, no body really knows. What you should focus on is what is selling now, what is valuable now and what could potentially be valuable in the future.



This is interesting and I am actually working on an interview on this exact topic (artificial intelligence that is)....good stuff

-Omar

Thanks for the reply Omar. This is true, but the impact on the 'long term hold' domains are what I am particularly looking at.

Re the AI interview- cool, I look forward to this. I think that it is only diligent to anticipate the next moves in the domain industry and a consideration of the impact AI will have on it will be key...

DI