information How many domain names are needed globally?

[Bob Hawkes]

I find the question "What is the total number of domain names needed (globally)" interesting, and also it is important in guiding how much growth potential our community has. Therefore, I decided to do a little math exercise to try to estimate it, along the way researching some component numbers. I partly just did this for fun, but I think it has some value, so wanted to share it with my domain friends here.

Here is a summary of my results:

• We estimate the number of businesses globally currently at about 100 million.
• If on average each business utilizes 10 domain names, this suggests a business domain need for about 1 billion domain names.
• Domain name needs of organizations that are not businesses might require about 200 million domain names, bringing the total to 1.2 billion.
• The growing tendency for personal domain names may add another few hundred million to the potential market.
• The use of domain name expressions or phrases will increase, but not add significantly to global domain name needs.
• Future uses, not specifically predicted, related to advanced science, technology and commerce may add another few hundred million domain names.
• This analysis suggests total domain name requirements of about 1.8 billion domain names when projected needs are realized.
• There are currently about 330 million domain names registered, but probably only about 2/3 of those are potentially useful.
• The analysis suggests the need for about 1.6 billion new domain name registrations.
• If the figures in the analysis are valid, the number of domain names registered can increase from current levels by roughly a factor of 5 before saturation is reached.

Clearly several parts of this have uncertainty, in particular what is the correct average number of domain names per business, and also how many domain names will be used personally (not related to a single person company). If we accept the assumptions in this paper, it appears there is still room to grow the domain name community by 5 or 6 times current registrations, and that the majority of these will be business related.

I 'published' the analysis as a freely available white paper yesterday, and there I give some references and explain the assumptions that went into the calculations. I don't know if I am allowed to direct people to the actual paper but if you go to namesthat.win (on web) and then click the top left icon (White Papers) you can link to the entire article.

Happy reading, domain friends!

I of course welcome discussion, comments and corrections!

Bob

 

[bmugford]

I don't think the average business really needs 10 domain names. If they have their brand in .COM often (1) is enough.

Regardless, demand for domains in general will grow over time as more companies and people come online.

Brad

 

[pokainc]

Welcome Bob since I see it's a new account, but I don't think there's a proper really quantifiable answer to the question asked in your thread title...

there's tons of new businesses, some that get dissolved, some that are split into many smaller companies, others that merge. Some businesses need online presence, others not so much. Some like to act defensively and buy many domains, others don't care...

There's no real answer to the question you're asking in my opinion... as long as businesses are free to register the amount of domain names they want, there's no real answer..

 

[Bob Hawkes]

I don't think the average business really needs 10 domain names. If they have their brand in .COM often (1) is enough.

Regardless, demand for domains in general will grow over time as more companies and people come online.

Brad

Not sure if you went to the actual article, where I talk about what 'need' means, but will provide some of the justification here. I pointed out that many businesses operate in multiple jurisdictions, and use, possibly just for protection and redirection, a number of cc domain names. Also, some businesses use (ether actively or redirection) multiple domain names for different aspects of the operation or product lines. The big tech companies such as Apple do this on huge scale, but even smaller companies may register a few. I do point out that the majority of small businesses will use a single domain, but when the average is computed including those that register many thousands, and considering use of cc, I came up with the 10 figure. It is also unclear the degree to which the new gTLDs will contribute to businesses choosing to register more for redirection marketing. As the report points out, the average number of domain names per business, is one of the more uncertain numbers going into the calculation. I would argue strongly that the number is more than 1, although agree it might be well less than 10.

 

[Bob Hawkes]

Welcome Bob since I see it's a new account, but I don't think there's a proper really quantifiable answer to the question asked in your thread title...

there's tons of new businesses, some that get dissolved, some that are split into many smaller companies, others that merge. Some businesses need online presence, others not so much. Some like to act defensively and buy many domains, others don't care...

There's no real answer to the question you're asking in my opinion... as long as businesses are free to register the amount of domain names they want, there's no real answer..

Thank you for your comment! I agree (and say in the full paper) that there is no precise one calculated answer possible. However, I think that by using reasonable estimates for the numbers that go into it (e.g. how many businesses registered worldwide, what ranges in domain names per business we see, how many organizations there are compared to commercial businesses, etc.) we can estimate the value in a way that has more support than simply pulling a number out. By the way the model I used was based on a type of analysis popularized by physicist Enrico Fermi, who used it effectively in several ways.

 

[anantj]

I think you're being too generous in your assumptions. While some assumptions and projections always need to be made, this is highly unrealistic at this time unless you have basis for the assumed figures.

Not sure if you went to the actual article

Uhh, you've not linked to TFA to be able to read it through unless you're used some font coloring to hide the actual hyperlink. Nor is it attached to your op

Found it. For the rest (Since OP is a new account, I think they can't post links): http://namesthat.win/misc/wp17001.html

 

[Asfas1000]

I think all the domains that are needed today have been registered, and then some.

 

[Kuffy]

I suspect that keyphrase names may become more important. Google seems to be shifting towards selling its own products and those of its friends to surfers, and it is becoming harder to get an accurate results for a search. The addition of auto-play videos may accelerate this shift. We could try to educate surfers and business users into using direct navigation, but Google is attempting to avoid this with its omni-box. Direct navigation via alternative browsers may be the way that we can expand the market for the consumption of domain names.

 

[Bob Hawkes]

Thank you so much for posting the link Anantji (yes the system does not, yet, allow me to post links is the reason it was not included in my original post)! I certainly accept that one might argue that the estimates are too generous. I may try a series of scenarios in a follow up analysis, ranging from conservative to optimistic. Thanks again, I really appreciate you posting the link for me!