When a domain enters pending delete it will drop and become available after 5 days. About 50.000 dot com domains drop every day. If I remember correctly about 16 domains drop every second when they start dropping.
Domains drop in the order they were created. Dropcatchers like snapnames and namejet canculate the exact time a domain is going to drop in milliseconds. This calculation is complicated and requires to compare yesterdays zone file with 90 million com domains to todays zone file. Because the exact dropping time calculation is so complicated and requires working with huge lists, only few companies can do it. Then they assign 30 to 60 different registrars to try to register that domain in the millisecond it drops.
Dropcathing is far more complicated then it looks. For instance Godaddy backorder can't beat snapnames or namejet because either they don't correctly calculate the exact time of each dropping domain or they don't assign enough registrars for trying to register the domains simultaneously.
Except dropcatcher sites there are also a few thousands domainers who run their own scripts. These scripts continuously try to register the domain during the drop window which lasts about two hours.
You have zero chance of hand registering a domain if any dropcather or any domainer with a script is trying to catch the domain.
However, I'm not suggesting that you should backorder pending delete domains. I'm not even suggesting that you should be interested in pending delete domains. I suggest that you focus on pre release domains. You can get a pre-release domain for as cheap as $13 USD from Godaddy closeout section. This is where expired godaddy domains go 40 days before they even reach pending delete and 45 days before they drop.
Let's assume %2 of all expired domains are worth re-registering. This makes 1000 domains 50.000. Because 64% of all pending delete domains were already auctioned once during pre-release it means 640 of those quality domains will be bought during the first auction (the pre-release auction). Only the remaining 360 quality domains will enter pending delete.
Here are a few dropcatcher sites that I know:
1. snapnames.com
2. namejet.com
3. pool.com
4. goaddy.com
5. name.com
6. intrustdomains.com
7. global.gabia.com
8. hexonet.net
9. premiumdrops.com
Let's say there are also about 2.000 domainers who run their own dropcatching script.
The question is do you want to compete with 9 different sites and 2000 domainers to get one of the 360 quality domains among 50.000 that drop today or do you want to buy one of the 640 quality domains among the 50.000 from a single pre-release auction site where the domain is already in their system and doesn't need to be caught?
Pending deletes are very overrated.
Here are a few pre-release auction sites:
1. snapnames.com (they call "pre-release" domains "expiring")
2. namejet.com
3. dynadot.com
Expired Domain Auctions - Dynadot.com
4. godaddy.com
https://auctions.godaddy.com/?ci=13335 (Godaddy has two pre-release sections, expiring and closeouts. Closeouts domains are those that are not sold in the auction and are now available to with buy now option.)
5. name.com
Expiring Domains - Name.com
The first four categories out of these five are available on my site in case you are looking for a place to search multiple sources at once.
Erdinc