Garbage in - Garbage out! Chips crashing

[Recons.Com]

So, where do we start?!

Well, for the beginners, why don't you have a look at the attached screenshot?

The so called Chinese Premium letter 4L.com are at the lowest for last 90 days and this time no excuse of Chinese new year.

This so called big Chinese investors have zero interest in playing it decent.

After grabbing tens of thousands names at $20-200, they pumped it to 3,000$ then lost interest in it letting it to crash to $1,800$ and counting, they, like bunch of locusts, moved to other asset classes for new pump and dumps, including 2-3-4 L, N .ws, 5L, 7N. They did not care how much they hurt 4L.com chips by starting new rumor of LNQRP being semi-premium (the whole point of premium is not being semi-premium), as long as they could bring some value to first 15 letters they could buyout first, now they need more suckers to grab those unwanted letter domains, about 350,000 remaining and once they'll find them (and they will find them), they'll pump up the prices, sell the premiumer ones they hold (patterns, 15 uber premiums etc.), then the locusts are off to the next field and you can hold your babies.

 

[N-A]

I'm was just trying to find the "peak" where this name was a minimum of $2,600. You said 30 days ago, but not based on the sales I found. I also posted data from December, November, September... I mean, "when" was this peak where no LLLL chip sold for under $2,600? I very literally can't find it.

I'm basing sales of $2600 with fees covered on personal experience. Maybe that's why you can't find it...

 

[21x20]

I'm basing sales of $2600 with fees covered on personal experience. Maybe that's why you can't find it...

Ok so when you first stated that it would have sold for a "minimum", I was thinking we'd not be able to find sales that were no less than $2,600 for similar chips in the public sales data for that to hold true.

But from your response here, I *think* you're actually saying that "you" (personally) could have sold it for a minimum of $2,600 ... and you (personally) would not be able to do that now. You're not suggesting this would have happened at the peak on the open market (since the data doesn't back that up) -- you're just relating it to a peak in your own personal sales.

... Am I having a better understanding "now"?

 

[N-A]

(Personally) I could have sold at $2600, just like (everyone) else when the price floor was ~15888 Yuan / $2438. “Now“ it's very unlikely (anyone) will get close to those prices unless they have an exceptional domain.

 

[21x20]

(Personally) I could have sold at $2600, just like (everyone) else when the price floor was ~15888 Yuan / $2438. “Now“ it's very unlikely (anyone) will get close to those prices unless they have an exceptional domain.

Doh. Ok, so we ARE back to this "price floor" and "everyone else".
I posted sales from various periods. 30 days ago. December. November. September. July.

Can you give me an actual timeframe when I would NOT be able to find an LLLL sale under $2,438? I mean isn't that the definition of a "price floor" and a time when "everyone else" would be able to get at least $2,438? Shouldn't there then be NO reported CHIP LLLL sales LESS THAN $2,438?

That's what I'm looking for -- "when" this actually happened.
I don't remember it happening.
I can't find data to support it having happened --> See also the actual "data" I shared above.

What is the magic floor price date? #holygrailofdates

 

[N-A]

You don't have a working understanding of what a "floor" is. It's an average of the sales and should represent the lowest price an LLLL should get. However, as it's an average, there are both extreme lows and highs that make this number.

The magic floor date you're referencing is most likely on Chaomi for 2/9. I don't know how you can miss it. Also remember these are updated every 20 minutes throughout the day and the actual highs may not be recorded.

 

[21x20]

You don't have a working understanding of what a "floor" is. It's an average of the sales and should represent the lowest price an LLLL should get. However, as it's an average, there are both extreme lows and highs that make this number.

The magic floor date you're referencing is most likely on Chaomi for 2/9. I don't know how you can miss it. Also remember these are updated every 20 minutes throughout the day and the actual highs may not be recorded.

"However, as it's an average, there are both extreme lows and highs that make this number."

Ok, bingo.

Can we at least agree that you can't actually say "$2,600 at a minimum"? Sure, you can say it could have come in closer to the average at the time of $2,600. But meanwhile I showed you a comparable name sold in mwdr.com on 2/4 @ $1,700 and it certainly, on the same day or around abouts, could have come in there.

You're definitively and very clearly stating $2,600 as a minimum and even so far as to say a "staggering" $800 less than it sold today.

 

[N-A]

You're definitively and very clearly stating $2,600 as a minimum and even so far as to say a "staggering" $800 less than it sold today.

Which is a true statement. I don't know what you're reaching for... the contacts of the people who were purchasing at that price? Do you need irrefutable proof that you could have also received a minimum of $2600, regardless of what the floor and reported sales suggest? I don't understand what you're arguing; really.

 

[21x20]

Which is a true statement. I don't know what you're reaching for... the contacts of the people who were purchasing at that price? Do you need irrefutable proof that you could have also received a minimum of $2600, regardless of what the floor and reported sales suggest? I don't understand what you're arguing; really.

I'm arguing that "Never said anything to that effect. But, it should be noted that the aforementioned name would have garnered a minimum of $2600 just 30 days ago -- a staggering decline of $800."

... is not an accurate statement when mwdr.com sold on 2/4 for $1,700.

 

[N-A]

You keep mentioning 1 name over and over as if that 1 name set the price for every other exchange that happened that day.

Edit: I see what you're saying. It's faulty to say that the name would have gotten $2600 when it in fact got $1700. Well that's true. I can't argue that. You're right, 100% right, you win: The name could have never gotten $2600 because it got $1700.

 

[Domain Galleria]

A chart is only as good as the data behind it. You could draw a chart based on no data or selective data. Would you really trade based on that?

We are not analyzing a chart based on no data here. If you are a forex trader, you will understand me better. Trades are taken based on either fundamental or technical analysis. I belong to the latter and I can affirm that my analysis based on that chart is not bias. Buy the deep, sell the rally is a common slogan within trading parlance and if that is true, whoever is buying now is taking too much a risk. What market makers do is to pull out their initial investment and create turbulence in the market thereby leaving the underdogs trading based on hope. All the best.

 

[.NJ]

Yet.





I would probably be angry, too, if I sold early and missed a ton of upside, but I'd like to think that I wouldn't then feel the need to go knock down others who were either smarter or luckier than me. That is a bad look.

Again.

I'm not knocking down anyone.

I chose not to invest in the hype because I chose to invest in other domain areas, which was a smart move.

I think it's great that people made alot of money.

And yes, there are 100% people still pumping "chips" to dump what they have before the bottom falls out.

That in turn creates newbies to follow what some are preaching and money is then lost.

And let's be clear here....

I'm not specifically citing anyone on this thread for falsely promoting domains for their personal gain. But it def is going on.

Thread topic: Garbage in, garbage out.

 

[DU]

You don't have a working understanding of what a "floor" is. It's an average of the sales and should represent the lowest price an LLLL should get. However, as it's an average, there are both extreme lows and highs that make this number.

How can one have a working understanding of a floor when domainers reinvent terms and expect everyone to know what it means. Typically, a floor price is the lowest value that a commodity can be sold. Not an average, not a median. It's slightly more complicated in that the floor price has to be above the natural lowest price of the commodity (hence the purpose of the floor price).

It can also represent the lowest price that a seller would/should accept and I imagine that this is what everyone else thinks a floor price is. If it's an average with highs and lows then it would be an "average price" or something else... but not a floor price.

Just imho, of course.

If the floor price is $2500 I understand that some people would undersell that (because they aren't market aware/need cash/volume sales etc.) but you would expect the vast majority to be over a floor price. Otherwise, it's just an average price

 

[frank-germany]

http://domainpayout.com/4lcomchips.php

 

[frank-germany]

charts of domain name sales lack one most import factor:

the timeline
- will never be correct -

 

[N-A]

charts of domain name sales lack one most import factor:

the timeline
- will never be correct -

Chaomi isn't a platform though. If you want it corrected, the trades are: 西数 west.cn; 易名 ename; 爱名 22.cn; and 金名 4.cn.

 

[Recons.Com]

Why I believe prices of even $1,500 for chip LLLL.coms are not sustainable based solely on fundamentals:

- Chinese market or not, 4L.com chip has a chance of selling for an average price of $4,000 of around 1-2%. Let's say optimistically 2%.

If you acquire 100 4L chips, you'd invest $150,000. You'd make 2 sales in a year for $8,000 income. You'd spend $1,000 on renewals and that would leave you with $7,000 income.

That is return of around 4.5% and that is not a rate of return that makes anyone happy, especially given that it requires optimistic assumptions as sales at $4,000 and 2% sales. Domain investment is high risk/high return type of industry and that is not sustainable.

In addition, from my experience of owning LLLL.coms for 15 years, you don't get many end user offers above $1,000-2,000, unless it is very nice pronounceable, so sales at $4K to end users are quite rare too.

Anyone is welcome to share their experience with end user sales on LLLL.com chips, % of sales and average price.

 

[frank-germany]

Chaomi isn't a platform though. If you want it corrected, the trades are: 西数 west.cn; 易名 ename; 爱名 22.cn; and 金名 4.cn.

yes but its my source of information in this case

 

[TRY]

Like any casino, you need to buy chips to gamble. I bought in low enough that prices can still drop and I will still be able to sell at a profit albeit small. My chip investment is small enough where it won't affect me too negatively even if I don't get anything for them (you will always get something though), but big enough where I can realize some nice profits. P.s. I have a few llll western/chinese chips with meaning, those I will hold onto for much more than the floor price.

 

[JayT]

of course i don't think chips are useless. I do agree that they are right around where they should be right now (~1800) I also think that western premiums should be higher too, not to create a bubble again lol. I am not buying them myself, but it's a better investment than chips if you really want to play the short LLLL game.

 

[Recons.Com]

The price level supported by fundamentals for CHiP, WP, Good quality pronounceables (excluding great quality VCVC, CVCV, VCCV etc. that can make them 2-10 times more valuable) is in $800-1,200 range based on expected return of at least 6%-9% from end user sales and 2% sales annually at $4K level.

Anything beyond that is speculation on a) future end user sales prices multiplying within few years; b) increased demand from end users at very high levels; c) some weird new theories regarding Chinese psychology and behavior.

At current wholesale prices of WP, you can still make return in 10%-12% range per year. At current prices of CHIPs (after they lost 1/4-1/3 from their peaks), you can make return of below 4% per year, which still an investment, albeit with minimum returns, differing from some other classes of assets like 2L-4L .ws where the whole idea is based on passing the torch along at higher price than you bought until nobody wants the torch.