Garbage in - Garbage out! Chips crashing

[Recons.Com]

So, where do we start?!

Well, for the beginners, why don't you have a look at the attached screenshot?

The so called Chinese Premium letter 4L.com are at the lowest for last 90 days and this time no excuse of Chinese new year.

This so called big Chinese investors have zero interest in playing it decent.

After grabbing tens of thousands names at $20-200, they pumped it to 3,000$ then lost interest in it letting it to crash to $1,800$ and counting, they, like bunch of locusts, moved to other asset classes for new pump and dumps, including 2-3-4 L, N .ws, 5L, 7N. They did not care how much they hurt 4L.com chips by starting new rumor of LNQRP being semi-premium (the whole point of premium is not being semi-premium), as long as they could bring some value to first 15 letters they could buyout first, now they need more suckers to grab those unwanted letter domains, about 350,000 remaining and once they'll find them (and they will find them), they'll pump up the prices, sell the premiumer ones they hold (patterns, 15 uber premiums etc.), then the locusts are off to the next field and you can hold your babies.

 

[DomainVP]

If anyone is bewildered by this development, then they weren't paying attention.

It's sad, but remember last month when every was saying, 'Its a bull trap', and that 'smart investors were trying to buy cheap'.

Then the price when up shortly... and then there was 'the return to normal'... yet the price was still lower than the peak.

and now... ladies and gentleman... the fall.

This is exactly why I have been saying that these chips will normalize at a price somewhere above their 'takeoff' price of $300 - $500. However, you will have to account the overall continued growth of domaining and .COMs which I think will leave these chips at the $800 level.

Woe to anyone who bought at $2k+... you should just reg it out until 2020 and hope for a solid end user sale to recover your investment.

If you want a cheat sheet for all of this, here it is - the rise & fall of Bitcoin.

 

[campout]

So 4L will plummet while 5L will rise in value? A little dip over a month or two and that is the end of it all??

 

[geek80]

Well what a coincidence, i just posted this question yesterday

https://www.namepros.com/threads/has-the-bubble-burst.927255/

 

[Shams]

Yuppy.. I sold Chips at right time and at right price. Now i only have one Chip .com remaining. Which i'll hold because that chip also have English word in it.
But i also have many 4L .net chips which i should hold otherwise i'll get loss by selling them because i bought most from aftermarket.

 

[Lionel Cohen]

Why 5N.com has not been a pump and dump?
Why 6N.com has not been a pump and dump?
Why 4L.com has not been a pump and dump?

 

[Name Trader]

Those holders could be part of few groups:

- Got caught up on the way up, bought closer to peak, now don't want to sell at $1,800 hoping for rebound. Remember this is not China against West. This is group of Chinese that will first and foremost engage their own countrymen.
- Bought 100 names at average of $100 for about $10K, sold about 20 at average of $2.5K, made 40K$ net profit, still has 80 names, doesn't mind holding them/was hoping for further increase.
- Has too many of those, made a lot of money already, can't release the names to market, as that would certainly crash it in short term. Has to either keep them or do slow exit.

So, "they" is domainer-investor group that have colluded to play the market and other domainer-investors that know how to ride the waves...

Where did you sell those 20 domains? As 1 lot? Or individually?

 

[TMarkus]

Hey, don't panic

As I feel there is differentiation bad chinese letter ))

We have seen that only 5L.com without NRLQP have good price. and We all be surprised that there is no difference in 4L with these letters.

now we will see creation of "0,4" within letter space.

 

[Name Trader]

@DomainVP- So where are we exactly now on that graph for LLLL.COM

 

[NameAgency]

Just 1 week ago I've received a $2400/each offer via email for 17 4L chips. Not from China.

 

[Wannabean]

Renewal fees made the whole cyber currency theory look a bit hopeful to me.

 

[Prometheus]

You better read this: An overview about the typical investment behavior of Chinese people.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-property-idUSKCN0W6001

 

[Lionel Cohen]

Renewal fees made the whole cyber currency theory look a bit hopeful to me.

With negative real interest rate in many countries, you pay to keep liquidity nowadays.

 

[Wannabean]

With negative real interest rate in many countries, you pay to keep liquidity nowadays.

I guess but in the case of 4L.biz .org .co etc the renewal fees account for 20-30% of the asset value. So the penalties are higher and there isn't really as much liquidity in a lot of domain classes as people would have you think.

 

[Lionel Cohen]

I guess but in the case of 4L.biz .org .co etc the renewal fees account for 20-30% of the asset value. So the penalties are higher and there isn't really as much liquidity in a lot of domain classes as people would have you think.

In those cases you must expect high price on exit price

 

[kemjika11]

I think people are "impatient" with 4L.coms. remember there are ALOT of them, even though supply is thining out over time. Domainers need to keep up their patience. This is the same way many thought 3L.com some years ago were not that great. but they were,just that short sighted people couldnt wait till they matured and showed their real value. If u want quick cash with domains usually you totally undersell possible ROI in the mid to long term. if you have 4L.com just hold. ALL the experts interviewed on that blog this year about the 2016 outlook are optimistic about 4l.com and i think they are right on that.

 

[Recons.Com]

I think people are "impatient" with 4L.coms. remember there are ALOT of them, even though supply is thining out over time. Domainers need to keep up their patience. This is the same way many thought 3L.com some years ago were not that great. but they were,just that short sighted people couldnt wait till they matured and showed their real value. If u want quick cash with domains usually you totally undersell possible ROI in the mid to long term. if you have 4L.com just hold. ALL the experts interviewed on that blog this year about the 2016 outlook are optimistic about 4l.com and i think they are right on that.

4L.coms are great. But no reason for XJZK.com to be better than random good LLLL.com

The whole underlying narrative is flawed and wrong, not mentioning that it keeps changing...

 

[djum]

Absolutely!

They had me for couple of weeks back in Nov-Dec believing the narrative that 4L.com is not about end users, it is about keeping the money away from the banks/government. But then, again, all their actions reminded of locusts. One field depleted, off to the other one. Each next step made less and less sense. 4L.nets for 1/4 of 4L.com chips and double the price of good pronounceable 4L.com! Depleted, dropped 2 times in time, buyout of 4L.org, 4L.biz, 4L.co, 4L.info (who needs 4L.info random chips???), 4L.ws (!!!!!! - about thousand of those here) etc, etc.

Plus 7N-10N.com, plus 5L.com and then new narrative with 5L.com 15 letters, bitcoin comparisons (bitcoins don't have renewals, 3%-20% transaction costs, bad combos etc.) etc.

And "the talking heads" (you know who you are) got more and more irritating. It is very distracting from business itself, although, I must admit, I have had much less competition for good names and did restock very well during the craze.

As W.Buffet suggested, always do the opposite of what the crowd does...

It's a nice theory, but overall your conclusions are premature.
Market fluctuates and I want to see what you going to say if it goes up again next week.

What's important, my opinion on market is not based on my own investment, like yours
"Pronouncable, meaningful 4L over gibberish, chinese 4l.com was wrong all last year, one bad week can't change this. Chinese investors are here to stay.
If this situation will continue to develop for a month then we can reconsider what we know now, but now it's just too early to yell that sky is falling, unless you want to bring the prices down and stock up cheap.

 

[brindle123]

, unless you want to bring the prices down and stock up cheap.

I want prices to come down so I can stock up cheap!

I think there are so many investors in the market now, that we won't be seeing cheap prices ever again. Yes the market will have corrections due to the fast rise in prices and demand, but higher prices are here to stay.
We won't be seeing the cheap prices of the past unfortunately.

Corrections yes
Cheap prices no

 

[djum]

no reason for XJZK.com to be better than random good LLLL.com

What is "good.com"?

I assume you mean "premium Western letters here".

But for Chinese this letters are not premium at all, they have more words starting with XJZ than from PLN.

What you consider good, Chinese consider not so good or even garbage.

And amount of buyers (end-users and investors) in China is growing every year with population. With 1,3 bln. of population and over 300 mln. middle-class the market in China is at least same size or even bigger than Western market.

I hope it's enough reasons for XJZK.com to be valued more than random LLLL.com from western letters that are not popular in part of the market that responsible for 90% of sales (according to some famous brokers in 2015).

 

[NameAgency]

I recently published a post at Linkedin about this topic.

You can read it --> here <--. Main post is in spanish, but you can find the english translation (courtesy of Joseph Peterson) in the first comment.