Estimating traffic using overture with extension

[melmunch]

As I have learned over the last few months, the overture score of a keyword with extension is a good way to gauge the level of traffic that a domain may have.

Obviously, there is no exact formula to figure out how much traffic a domain gets based on the overture score, as there are many confounding factors. For example, I assume that children's sites, or humor and celebrity sites are frequented by a population that is more likely to use yahoo in general and to type a domain name in a search bar instead of the browser. The population for more tech and educational keywords would be less inclined.

That being said, does anyone have a formula that they use to predict type in traffic to a domain based on overture? perhaps 1 overture with extension = 5 or 10 or 100 regular type-ins per month?

Very rough estimates are welcome!

 

[Mark]

Good Topic

I don't think a formula can be trusted too much for it , But using the right type Generic domains - You could get something rough enough for you to add "Human Factors" to after the fact.

Lets assume everyone knows this figure can be Tainted or Faked first off ... So make sure the Ovt w/extension makes sense somehow.


Anyone know a good place to Check to see what Search market share Yahoo holds atm ?




Useful factors (IMO) :

* Percentage of Market Yahoo Holds (Overture is based from their network)
* I'd say testing it on domains with the least amount (if any) of incoming (backlinks) links would be the easiest and most fair.
* Standard Generic domains Should only be used for testing obviously (Google.com Namepros.com etc .. get Ovt w/ext - But are developed sites using a Branded name)


I'll try to go dig some more stuff up

 

[melmunch]

Hey Mark,

Thanks for your help.

I only own one domain personally that has an untainted overture with extension score, and according to its metrics, the score with extension is 29 and it gets about 55 unique type ins a day with no back links. Accordingly, each overture with extension equals about 57 regular type ins. However, this is confounded by the fact that most of the type ins do not come from the united states and are not counted in the us overture score.

I currently have a situation where I am negotiating to buy a domain name that is a very generic keyword and has a decent overture with extension. I am trying to predict revenue, so that I can base my high offer on a reasonable multiple. I can estimate the revenue per click and I have a good handle on how it will convert, but I have no idea how to predict the traffic based on the overture score.

 

[Midano]

I only own one domain personally that has an untainted overture with extension score, and according to its metrics, the score with extension is 29 and it gets about 55 unique type ins a day with no back links. Accordingly, each overture with extension equals about 57 regular type ins.

Hello Melmunch. Welcome to NP.
This is an interesting observation, but one domain is not enough to make such assumption. I'd like to see more data for other domains with OVT score. Only then any relatively reliable predictions could be made.

 

[gazzip]

I currently have a situation where I am negotiating to buy a domain name that is a very generic keyword and has a decent overture with extension. I am trying to predict revenue, so that I can base my high offer on a reasonable multiple. I can estimate the revenue per click and I have a good handle on how it will convert, but I have no idea how to predict the traffic based on the overture score.

Interesting topic - I'd love to know how people estimate the amount of traffic a domain gets in order to value it - During the recent Moniker auction I tried checking the OVT of alot of the generic names that were going for big bucks - Most of them had 0 OVT ???

An example right now at snapnames is Woodblinds.com - O OVT with ext and currently at $33,750.00 ! Just how long would it take to earn that back in PPC - 5 years - 10 years - 20 years....never ???

Considering most of these bigger dollar names are going to people who just buy to park them for PPC how the hell do they know how much traffic it will get ?

......What am I missing here ?

.