Chinese LLLL.com bubble!?

[freezer]

Is it a somewhat good estimate that
chinese LLLL.com premiums are at at least $1billion value today?
Unlike Number .coms chinese premium LLLL.com boomed in value in a very short period.
Will they hold their value or is it the biggest BUBBLE ever seen in domains?

Share your thoughts please

 

[Nile Patel]

Sellers may be having a hard time pricing their 4n.com with all of this movement, if I had LLL.com or NNNN.com Id have a really hard time letting go with all of this LLLL and 5N 6N movement. Just a guess.

Why 4N.com has way high valuation which are as equal as 3L.com, when no western buyer want that name.

 

[JayJay]

Why 4N.com has way high valuation which are as equal as 3L.com, when no western buyer want that name.

I would ask the same exact thing. Other than novelty from being scarce I see no other value to the west, at least in usa a 5N could be a zip code. Not near as valuable imo as a 3L...

 

[JayJay]

Example:
tbqd.com sold today for $2653
rqnd.com is almost identical and is sitting at ~$1k for almost a day now.

This puzzles me unless the buyer of tbqd was an end user which I guess is a definite possibility.

 

[rpanella]

Could you explain your reasoning between a 26-36 range?

It's simple, I'm surprised you never heard of this before.

There's 26 times less LLL combinations. So price for LLL must be 26 times higher, because of rarity. But I give it even bigger coefficient of 36, because nowadays it's harder to find LLL.com, then LLLL.com.

Using the ratio of rarity to compare prices between different niches can be a useful metric, but it becomes less useful at very low or very high prices.

One thing I never see mentioned along with the ratio is the effect of renewal fees. If a hypothetical LLL is worth $260, it might seem that a LLLL is worth $10. But the cost of renewing the cheaper name is 100% of its price vs <5%. Investing in the LLL, to double your money in a year prices have to increase by 103.8% (roughly double in value), while investing the LLLL to double your money prices must increase 200% (triple value). If prices on $10 names do any less than double value annually you're losing money.

On the high end there's the issue of liquidity. A domain worth $1000 has many buyers with budgets in that range so it's easy to move quickly. $26k domain has many less buyers, and $676k even less so.

Just some food for thought.

 

[Nile Patel]

That's why i think if Chinese start loving 4L.com that would be as equal or half value as 4N.com which are average 20k.
I tried to buy and started offering 5N.com around $500 even with 0, no one willing to sale me some bounce back and laugh on me and told do your research we have bought this names for way higher then your offer.
I tried to buy 5N.com on sedo with BUY now few weeks ago i paid we waited 2 to 3 week and sedo canceled 3 transaction( 2 for .com and one for .net) above $500 and told me the seller not willing to sale now , guess what all was Chinese seller.

So all this crazy love for number name slowly moving toward 4L.com and then 4L.net and then other categories , lets cheer for this Chinese love for next couple year.

 

[Nile Patel]

Using the ratio of rarity to compare prices between different niches can be a useful metric, but it becomes less useful at very low or very high prices.

One thing I never see mentioned along with the ratio is the effect of renewal fees. If a hypothetical LLL is worth $260, it might seem that a LLLL is worth $10. But the cost of renewing the cheaper name is 100% of its price vs <5%. Investing in the LLL, to double your money in a year prices have to increase by 103.8% (roughly double in value), while investing the LLLL to double your money prices must increase 200% (triple value). If prices on $10 names do any less than double value annually you're losing money.

On the high end there's the issue of liquidity. A domain worth $1000 has many buyers with budgets in that range so it's easy to move quickly. $26k domain has many less buyers, and $676k even less so.

Just some food for thought.

You right the game is Liquidity, like stock market if domain market has same response and if it is more liquid, it able to attract many more investors.

 

[forge]

As others are going off topic, I'll add that as for 3L .com the risk is exponentially higher compared to 4L due to the acquisition cost and lower ROI in many cases. A lot of money tied up for possibly a very long time.

Entry is often cost prohibitive.

 

[djum]

As others are going off topic, I'll add that as for 3L .com the risk is exponentially higher compared to 4L due to the acquisition cost and lower ROI in many cases. A lot of money tied up for possibly a very long time.

Entry is often cost prohibitive.

Lower chances to find end-user too, if you have 30-150 LLLL.com you have 30-150 strikes vs 1.
And end-user price can be 3-5K and increase ROI significantly.

 

[forge]

While everyone is playing around in PinYin play land, I guess nobody noticed that domains with AEIOUV are just about the only 4L's that are selling for $3k+.

Oh well...

Show me all the "big" V domain sales. I'll be waiting for the chirping cricket sounds. Even the rest is doubtful. Not denying the sales happen, just don't believe they're in any disproportionate number. V is the universal deal killer, however. Yes, outliers happen... yatta yatta

 

[Nile Patel]

Show me all the "big" V domain sales. I'll be waiting for the chirping cricket sounds. Even the rest is doubtful. Not denying the sales happen, just don't believe they're in any disproportionate number. V is the universal deal killer, however. Yes, outliers happen... yatta yatta

What he missed is CVCV or VCVC which are easily pronoucable in western market and has high value compare to even chinese premium.

 

[forge]

ldyx.com expiring auction ending at Pheenix.com today - already at $1450 (102 bids)

The floor seems to be moving up.

Yeah, everywhere except NamePros.

 

[Nile Patel]

Look like now the game is in big hand who do not have time for chit chat in forums and to want secure and easy buy out process from auctions.

 

[forge]

There you go, the 3 letter nets still are at $1k each or so. its hard to get even 1k.
noone wants them

Again, your misconception and simply not true as far as "noone wants them". Plenty of $1.5k range sales within the past months, and of course plenty higher.

 

[forge]

Please you guys explain me why 4N.com has more value many are equivalent to 3L.com this is fact check all recent auctions, I m complete new in this number game , please someone explain me since how many year this 4N.com has this value or it is sudden rise like 4l.com

Basic math, there are only 10,000 4N.com, or less available now. But didn't you know that already?

Compare to 160,000 Chinese premium 4L.

 

[forge]

LLLL in China used as acronyms for 2 words, not 3, that's why they more like LL.
BJKJ.com = BeiJingTechnology

Excellent point, thanks for underlining it.

Ok, I'm done posting for awhile, hopefully.

 

[domeen]

Again, your misconception and simply not true as far as "noone wants them". Plenty of $1.5k range sales within the past months, and of course plenty higher.

I am not saying you can`t sell some for $1000+ You can. But if you want to move large protfolio, no reseller is going to pay you $1000+ each!!

 

[Dean]

Honestly anyone saying there isn't a bubble is either clueless or is just looking out for their own interests.

There is a bubble for sure. There is no denying it.

But the existence of a bubble is irrelevant. What matters is trying to figure out when the bubble will burst and how badly prices will fall. Because even though there is a bubble these $1k domains could be $3k+ domains in a few months. Just because there is a bubble, it doesn't mean don't invest. What other investment has such a high potential for return? And obviously that level of return also comes with a risk, that the bubble could burst tomorrow and the prices fall significantly.

So instead of debating whether there is a bubble or not, we should be debating at what price will it peak and how far and fast will it fall.

My opinion is that there is still a while to go, I think we will see at least a $2k minimum. I don't think we will see a $5k minimum, not in this current boom anyway. So somewhere between $2-5k for the minimum price of the worst chips is my guess for the peak price. And if it falls I think they won't fall further than $400 as a minimum price for the worst chips. That's just my opinion based on other bubbles I've seen (previous LLLL bubble, bitcoin, etc) and what I believe the true value of these LLLL to be (and there is a real value to these domains, they're not worthless, just currently in a bubble that has pushed their price too high for the domainer/reseller market)

 

[domeen]

Honestly anyone saying there isn't a bubble is either clueless or is just looking out for their own interests.

There is a bubble for sure. There is no denying it.

But the existence of a bubble is irrelevant. What matters is trying to figure out when the bubble will burst and how badly prices will fall. Because even though there is a bubble these $1k domains could be $3k+ domains in a few months. Just because there is a bubble, it doesn't mean don't invest. What other investment has such a high potential for return? And obviously that level of return also comes with a risk, that the bubble could burst tomorrow and the prices fall significantly.

So instead of debating whether there is a bubble or not, we should be debating at what price will it peak and how far and fast will it fall.

My opinion is that there is still a while to go, I think we will see at least a $2k minimum. I don't think we will see a $5k minimum, not in this current boom anyway. So somewhere between $2-5k for the minimum price of the worst chips is my guess for the peak price. And if it falls I think they won't fall further than $400 as a minimum price for the worst chips. That's just my opinion based on other bubbles I've seen (previous LLLL bubble, bitcoin, etc) and what I believe the true value of these LLLL to be (and there is a real value to these domains, they're not worthless, just currently in a bubble that has pushed their price too high for the domainer/reseller market)

The question is.
It looks like the max for resellers is in the $1000 range. at least here in forums. noone wants to pay more then that for 4 letter Chinese premium. Ok there are some domains they pay more. But you get my point.

And I am thinking to myself, would I really invest more then $100k into 100 4 letter Chinese premiums? Domains that make no money parking and end-user sales 1-2 in year if lucky.

Now think, would really someone pay $200k for that same domains, that is crazy.

I could see some here and there sell for $2000 or so, maybe so.

But I can be totally wrong, but thats what I think.

and all other .ext is simply stupid.

 

[Federer]

floor seems to be crawling up slowly - may be at $1300-$1400 by end of next week at this rate....

Yesterday closed sales:

mxkc.com - $1450
tqtx.com - $1319
gmsd.com - $1301
xccs.com - $1450
plbp.com - $1411
clfw.com - $1250
pmhf.com - $1525
wqbm.com - $1002 (great deal)
lijr.com - $7400 (end user no doubt)

mkjb.com - now at $1525 at GD
ltbh.com - at $1400 at Sedo

Prices at NP and DNF are usually a notch under for obvious reasons - these are great places to buy in the 1K-1.1K range (have already purchased various over the past 2-3 days).

 

[Federer]

Another just sold, this time over at Pheenix.com

ldyx.com - $1680.