A fellow member here on the forum runs a service that advertises to show you the drop time of names.....I have never used the service and can't comment but perhaps the owner will stumble on the thread:
Registrars are given a full list of drop times. It's meant for internal purposes but some obscure registrar owners have services that offer these lists, or 3rd parties that are privy to the list make them available.
I subscribed to one of theses lists before and it was +-10 minutes accurate to the actual drop time.
The best way to catch names is still through a dropcatch service.
You could know the drop time down to the millisecond... and you won't get the name because hundreds of registrars are firing off thousands of registration requests through their API.
I don't know the criteria on how they decide what drops when, but I had a custom script set to check whois on dropping names according to the list of times, and the times were accurate +-5 to 10 minutes.
The domains were in no specific order other than by drop time.