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Aged domains question

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Bob Hawkes

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I have a question that I hope someone more experienced in domain investing can provide insight on....

Very frequently I see mention in domain name sales that the domain is aged or how many years old it is, as though this is universally a good thing.

I understand completely how if the domain has been used in a website in a positive way, has received meaningful links from other websites, etc. that being aged is a plus that will make the domain more valuable.

However, what if the domain was first registered say 12 years ago, but has essentially sat parked for most or all of that period? In this case I don't see how being aged is positive, and maybe even it could be negative if an unsuccessful attempt has been made to sell the domain over years. Of course, you may have new ideas for promotion and hope to find success where others have not with the domain name, but I still don't see why per se being aged is always positive and meaningful.

Or am I missing something? Thanks for any insights.

Bob
 
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So, aged domains were more valuable in 90's and will be always more valuable. Even in bitcoin domains, the best ones are the oldest domains. The best domains are ALWAYS registered first, before the normal and bad domains.

Regarding all-time highlights and record-breaking domains:

1. The most valuable (at over 200 mil.usd) domain sold, Cars./dot./com, was registered in 1998, years after registration of domains was open to public without restriction. Many 'bad' domains have had a chance to see the light of the day, before the crown prince of all domains (up till now) was created.

2. The fifth most expensive domain sold (without adjusting for inflation),360/dot./.com, was registered even later, in 2000.

The explanation for the delay in foreseeing the extreme value was the difficulty of discerning value at at time when it's still slowly emerging and before there is exists as a consensus of value.

Concerning trends in general and bitcoin in particular, one of the most valuable domains sold for over 40k this year was Bitcoincash./dot/org, with a fresh registration date being just three months old at the time of the sale. By any standards, it wasn't the oldest of domains in the same category.

Does the statement that even with trends the best domains would always be registered first, provided 'always' is understood as 'usually' would be valid for trends in general ? Basically it's a question if the tendencies observed on the macro scale would apply to and still be valid for the micro level.

To answer this, let's take a double-letter trend for inspection, as one example.

The problem with trends is that it takes time for them to gain a momentum, which means that the highest values will start showing up by the time of the peak of the trend. Domain registrations will pick up pace in tandem with a trend gaining its speed. But for all trend watchers, following a trend is a learning process. As the trend develops, accumulation of knowledge defining the milestones of what works and what gets discarded on the way of the evolving trend, is absorbed to produce the final product closely matching the trend. With the double-letter trend, given the relative abundance of names that can be altered by addition of an extra letter and seemingly endless variations that result from it, one wont see uniformity in registrations leaning towards correlations of high age with the highest values. It’s more than likely for the finest specimens of the trend to be born in the summer-autumn season of the trend, blooming as late arrivals.

But this isn’t limited to trends that are without borders of constraints, with finitude or elements of scarcity hiding in its components, as we have seen in the bitcoin trend so far. For now, we should refrain from making the final judgement until it comes of age traveling a full circle as a trend or when it becomes a more permanent fixture of life if it's lucky enough outgrows the former.

As a conclusion, just as the trends break the mold, so can they break the rules of values being tied up to the bonds of primogeniture.

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I am sorry to inform you, @HotKey, but you are wrong, or rather, you can't draw any conclusions. As per @xynames, it can't be representative for general population since internet access at that time was limited to only a few.:)
 
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And that the domains that were available to hand reg YEARS ago, tend to be higher quality than what is available to hand reg. today.

To judge the domains registered in the past by today's standards is understandable, it brings one to dry land for a fast point of reference. Otherwise, if the domains from the past were to be judged by the standards of the past that surrounded them, their value back then, when they were first registered, would be almost non existent. However, to judge the domains of the past by today's standards and then use it to discredit the domains of the present judged by the same standards (of the present), is to overlook the potential values of the contemporary domains. Judge the domains of present, not by what they can give you today but the values they could develop tomorrow.
 
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My view is that age is a great proxy for quality, but it doesn't actually contribute to value.

Most of us probably do this, as the odds of finding a really strong domain is significantly higher if you're looking in a pool of 20-year-old domains as opposed to a pool of domains registered within the past year. But there are plenty of garbage domains in that pool of old domains.

So there is a strong correlation between age and value, just as there is with length, number of TLDs registered, etc. But none of these factors actually determine value. Literally the only thing that determines the value of a domain name is demand; how many end users would want to buy it and how much could they afford to pay for it based on its potential uses.

If a domain like Cars.com deleted and had the creation date reset, its value would not be impacted in the slightest.
 
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Domain age is not valuable of domain value. Domain value parameters it's meaningful name and easily read
 
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The discussion is whether or not the age of the domain matters and it is absurd to argue that it does not.

Of course, age matters - to original owners of aged domains and whoever benefits from them most.. Aged domains are valuable, but only to those who managed to register them early in the game :)

But to the rest domains are just like gold.... No matter if you bought you gold bar ten years ago or just yesterday, when it comes to its selling date,there will be no escape from the judgement meted equally to both by the Bullion Market in the form of a fixed gold rate.
 
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This is incorrect. There are domains that have almost no value 20 years ago like virtual reality, bitcoin, eth, and so on. If they had value like cars dot com, they would be registered 20 years ago.

I was talking about a possibility of cars not being registered years ago purely hypothetically.While it’s very unlikely that cars would have remained unclaimed for much longer, it’s not entirely fictitious to imagine them being registered with a 2-3 year margin of error of the original registration date. The fact that there are domains, known to be hidden gems, that have avoided detection despite their apparent value is a proof that values can be overlook even if they are hiding in plain sight. Spotting such domains in the drop lists is another sign of existence of significantly under-priced assets whose value might have gone undetected by the original registrant or unnoticed by anyone else..

Regarding domains like bitcoin, etc heralding new technologies it’d' be almost impossible to predict a distant future, much less to learn the names by which it’ll be known. But as far as the example given above of eth, even though it didn’t have the potential value of the cars at the time of registration, it was actually registered 16 years ago. However, despite its advanced age, this domain (eth) was very unlikely to have been registered back then for the reasons that the registrant somehow could have predicted and foresaw its future value vis-a-vis it being rooted in introduction of a technology completely unknown at the time (otherwise, for example, eth would have been owned by the founder of the product/technology itself). Then the primary values resided in eth had to do with it simply being a 3L domain and as a potential acronym.
But cars dot com will be 40 years old after 20 years if it registered 20 years ago. Currently a 20 years old domain will be always older than 1-19 years old domains.

Percentually the age difference between domains is going to be minimized the older they become. While percentually the difference between a 20 yo and fresh domain is huge, in 20 years time, when they are 40 and 20 respectively, percentual gap between them will diminish, and in 100-200 years from now, with them turning into 120-220 and 100-200 yo veterans correspondingly it will be barely perceptible.
Your gold example doesn't fit because of this. Gold may be mined today but it was valuble before they mined.

We can replace gold with an example of bitcoin to illustrate a point given by an analogy clearer. A bitcoin bought at the time of its debut for pennies had very little value compared to the value of gold in the past tense by virtue of gold special properties and its being used as a recognized standard. So, had a bitcoin been bought for pennies in the beginning of the bitcoin era, it would still be worth as much today as a bitcoin acquired last year after having appreciated in value. As per your post:
For instance you could buy 1 bitcoin for $1 in the past. But today you have to pay almost $6,000 for the same 1 bitcoin.

Whether the bitcoin was bought for one dollar years ago or for a thousand last year, today their worth would be equal.
 
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Why do you think people are scrambles for expired domains?
Worthy domains are gold in domain industry no matter the age, but though aged ones add more values.

People are scrambles for expired domains because expired domain market is cheaper as there are less end users. Players in expired domain market are mostly resellers who buy cheap to sell for a higher price. So, once a domain drops it becomes cheaper. My point is still valid. When domain age becomes suddenly zero, its value and its market price are affected. Expired domain market is a proof of this.

However it's obvious market value of a domain doesn't consist of its age. Because there will always be some end users who don't care about age and their demand will affect overall domain prices.

Also a dropped domain might be sold between multiple resellers until it's sold to an end user. As each reseller will add their own profits to the price, end user price could be as high as before the domain dropped. Price can be same no matter if the end user cares about age (whether the domain drops or not). However this doesn't disprove your point as long as end users can't buy an expired domain as cheap as resellers.

So, you are right about the end result in the current market conditions.
 
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I can assure you it makes zero difference period. Suck ass names sell all the time that were registered mere minutes ago. People don't know to care.
 
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Gradient.com is on the auction block at GD expired. This is a grandaddy, DOB is 1990. Currently the highest bid sits just under 28k. Out of the 100 bidders, is it the age, the name quality, or a combination of both driving the bids?

To the majority, Gradient is a spectacular name that sells itself, whether it was registered yesterday or 30 years ago. To me, the 1990 birthyear would be a motivating factor :).
 
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Out of the 100 bidders, is it the age, the name quality, or a combination of both driving the bids?
**Bids, not bidders** doh. About 22 bidders.
This auction just went stratospheric. Generic 1 word, almost 30 yrs old. Jumped from 55k to over $120k in 2 minutes.
Wish it was going to my collection..
 
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Similar thing happened in 90's for domains. That's why age is a major factor. You can't turn back to 1995 to hand register dozens of 3L.

I think you are allocating the value of domain age to and by equating it with the engine of a time machine :)
Granted, if you were given a throwback line to the past by having the chance to relieve it once again -without the hindsight of the future- would it have turned the other way this time around or would you still be finding yourself missing the bandwagon ? Had you been placed into the magic chamber adorned with domain names instead of amber, would you have found yourself pulling name-containing slips off the wall paper or painting it over with the newest multi-color ? Remember, we have been given plenty of chances to lather, rinse, and repeat the .com gold rush on a smaller scale with crypto-currencies, but instead it led to many pupils repeating the class to get a barely passing grade. The question is: how well did many of us did it right after doing it wrong in the .com boom ? Because according to witnesses, yet once again,the majority was seen being left on the platform holding the tickets to the departing trains :)

Yes, there were great times for the most perceptive of minds to seize the moment of golden registrations, but if you weren't quick enough way back to the dinner table the dinner would have gotten cold or eaten by a dog. Not in the way of dog-eat-dog necessarily, but my dog ate my homework kind of a way:)
 
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I think you are allocating the value of domain age to and by equating it with the engine of a time machine :)

Exactly. It's a very big factor which we can't disregard.

Granted, if you were given a throwback line to the past by having the chance to relieve it once again -without the hindsight of the future- would it have turned the other way this time around or would you still be finding yourself missing the bandwagon ?

If you don't change any variable the result will not change by repeats.
"insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results"
If you had a chance to go back to the past with the exact same conditions, you would do the exact same things that you did in the past :) This is a bit out of the topic of this thread.
 
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@namelancer Exceptions don't break the rule in business. This isn't a natural science.
Another point is you can say "x" will be always "y", to emphasize a business-economics rule, while you mean "usually" by "always". Because when something is usual (if an event or pattern is observed more), it's a rule business. Business, as a science, dictates choosing what most likely will happen, is way different than math, physics where a single occurrence of incompatible outcome or event can break the rule . So, I still defend the rules I stated even after you showed me exceptions (eth, 8888888 ) . To break a rule in business, you should show (should logically prove) incompatible events are the majority or the effect of exceptions (amount of money involved in the exceptions ) are majority (more than 50%).


I realized my initial response left much to be desired by way of explanation. I'll now attempt to demonstrate to you whether you main premise could hold the ground if viewed from a changed perspective.

To this effect, two major shape-shifters must be isolated to identify the core weaknesses :

1. Indeed, exceptions don't break the rule understood within the context of always having the meaning of usually, e, reaching and exceeding the 50 percent threshold of observed events. However, it can not be excluded from the realm of the possible, that by some fluke of design or human nature, there couldn't be accumulation of irregularities to the extent that they, en mass, would tip the scales of the reign by majority. Again, it's not probable, nor is it entirely impossible, given that we operate within the limited range of available options, ie. the constraints of registrations are limited to 63 characters in any given extension. Historically, we have had experience where certain extensions got their market valued altered by all sorts of restrictions, as was the case with Australian country code extension where for a long time people couldn't resell the registered domains in a straight-forward fashion (the loopholes were used instead where domain purchases came bundled with acquisition of a company owing the domain to circumvent then valid rule).

Another example is the ever changing ebbs and flows in movements regulating registration of some of the most desirable single and double digit extensions, with registries first allowing registration of rarities at the dawn of internet to discontinue the practice of new ownership for drops, unless it's done by mutual consent prior to expiry, with registries lining up at potentially appropriating deleted domains (the domains who have done their life-time of service) without legacy of passing the torch forward to the next generation.

A third example would be a particular flair gaining traction for booking domains with the number of digits corresponding to postal indexes or company registration numbers, etc.

Finally, one sees the rule-bending irregularities among 5L vs 6L .coms, with the latter selling for higher sums than their lesser counterparts in the pronounceable category. We could, with computational resources, further extrapolate similar data on dictionary/invented words in adjacent locations to look for pattern there..

To sum it up, evolution or restriction of utility for particular digits could bring about deflation in values. Should the number of irregularities reach a critical mass, they would be a force to be reckoned with in overcoming the default rule as stipulated in the source post. .

2. This point will be made in the spirit of making an appeal both to the law of large numbers and infinitely small numbers respectively.
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Currently, the maximum domain length is 63 characters, while the minimum varies according to extensions (emoji excluded). Starting with comparison of 2N.com vs 3N.com and going on not ad infinity, but stopping somewhere under the 10N.com, the rule may very well hold (except for the real or hypothesized exceptions as noted above or in case of change in circumstances with regards to fluctuation in utility). But move out of the comfort zone, and out of the existing 63 possible N-ed digits, what would be the value of, let's say, 44N.com vs 47N.com ? Well, statistically speaking, 44 N is more scarce than 47 N, and so it's going to be attributed more gravitas. But in real terms of market valuations, would there be a discernible difference in value between these two domains in so far that one is going to be valued higher ? The answer is no, because while mathematically values among the two would be barely distinguishable, since they are separated by infinitesimally small fractions of numbers, their respective (market, e.g.) values would be just as infinitesimally small to make any difference to be perceptible (unless it's an all-seeing algorithm) to the bare eye . Because if the values are close to or are around zero, in market terms they would translate into the rounding up to zero as the financial windfall, or, if we are generous enough, amounting to a registration fee in the best of cases.

Total supply of 3N domains are 10 times of 2N
Total supply of 3L domains are 26 times of 2L (number of letters in English alphabet is 26)

Statistically, randomly chosen 2L will be more expensive than 3L. This is the rule I defend. There might be more exemptions than you showed. But the exemptions don't break this rule.


Actually, in your original statement, you argued for this tendency to be observable across the whole spectrum (from 1N(L), to 2N(L), to 3N(L),, to 4N(L), to 5N(L), etc up to the upper limit, which is now set at 63N(L), or presumed to be even valid for all potential increases in the number of characters) of domains available for registration. This increase in the number of characters, be it specifically numbers or, by implication, letters, is evident from your earlier post, as per :

There are 100 2N.com's, 1,000 3N.com's, 10,000 4N.com, 100,000 5N.com and so on. It's obvious 2N.com will be always more expensive than 3N, 4N, 5N ... domains.
 
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