The future of .COM after new gTLDs boom! Big DROP?!

dordomai said:

Agree with that and view this the same way. Some good word.word will sell but on overall there will not be that much development on these. Money will be made but it will be more like the .xxx or .mobi sales.

The number of good domains is limited and they are alternative choices not what the mainstream uses.

.web and .online and .xyz might survive and see some development. I don't think they will do better than .net simply because they aren't better and .net has the advantage of being the oldest and most established.

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Older and more established doesn't guarantee market share. This assumption would suggest Rome should have survived and the american indians would still have control of their land

slader23 said:

....
I don't know anyone who buys guns or owns guns or even thinks about guns but if I saw Gun.Shop was available for a decent renewal, I'd grab it in a heartbeat. Your logic states I shouldn't even bother. The amount of fallacious thinkers on this thread is incredible.

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I wouldn't buy the domain in that TLD personally. But in a more popular extension I would, even .us. Of course many people don't own guns, but there is a market for guns nonetheless. No question about it. What I am questioning is the size of the market for new extensions and whether it's big enough to bother (as an investor).
My experience is obviously 'biased' because I visit websites on legacy gTLDs and ccTLDs on a daily basis. I usually don't visit sites on new extensions, at least not repeatedly. On the other hand I see a lot of spam in new extensions. But my experience is not unlike that of other, normal people. People tend to trust extensions they are familiar with, and ignore the others.

168 said:

Something we can agree on. The possibility of domains being irrelevant in 20 years. Something we don't agree on.

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Now it's getting interesting. Some domainers are doubting domain names will still be relevant in 20 years. Why not. But at the same time, some domainers are thinking new extensions are the future, and obviously new registries think the same, or they are not in for the long haul. But we also know that new extensions will need a lot of time to mature and gain acceptance - if that ever happens. So the window of opportunity is between a few years from now on and 20 years... but should you even invest in domain names then ?
I am more confident than that in the DNS.
To put things in perspective I have been a member at NP for 11 years and domaining since 1999. I think the Internet will still exist in 20 years, and domain names will remain relevant as long as companies need to advertise and brand themselves online. Domain names were unimportant between 1984 and 1993 because the WWW wasn't still around. Global commerce is what made domain names become strategic tools in the online arena.

PS: sorry for the tit for tat

Shane Bellone said:

I would not be surprised if Google does away with search results entirely and instead sends you direct to the most helpful website. After all, a simple "next command" would suffice if that website does not help.

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“The point of I’m Feeling Lucky was to replace the domain name system for navigation,” Page said in 2002. Both Page and Brin hoped that instead of guessing what was the address of their web destination, they’d just “go to Google.”)"

Only used about 1% of the time.

If I want to buy cameras online, you want options. The internet isn't going anywhere, there's always going to be sites, they need an address/name. And then you have the whole offline world, marketing etc. Need direction, a url.

168 said:

Look at the totals 2015 vs 2016 about a 23% increase in use of something other than .com
Using a 2 month snapshot is weak
Cheers!

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What 23%?

168 said:

TO SAY THERE ARE NO START UPS USING NEW "G"'s IS A DIRECT INTENTIONAL MISREPRESENTATION.
Like i've said before your either a domainer or a .commie.
Cheers!

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Where did anybody say that, have a quote? Or you just ramble a lot? There are some, but very low percentage, many examples have been used showing that. I gave the most recent examples, less than 3%, I gave many examples before.

slader23 said:

I answered his question. Find the your answer above. Also even though I did use it, I think "not bothering" when you don't know people that do is how people miss opportunities. Its a way of thinking that lacks logic and curiosity, to put it bluntly its a very "Inside of the box" way of thinking. I don't know anyone who buys guns or owns guns or even thinks about guns but if I saw Gun.Shop was available for a decent renewal, I'd grab it in a heartbeat. Your logic states I shouldn't even bother. The amount of fallacious thinkers on this thread is incredible.

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I'm starting to wonder how much they are getting paid to post disinformation and crash peacefull gatherings they have no true interest in . For newbies it is good to consider opposing perspectives and decide what is true and works best for them. Just investing in .coms is a viable strategy for people who are risk adverse or don't possess the necessary sales skill.
Keep up the good factual posts that people can confirm and decide on their own.

Cheers

168 said:

I'm starting to wonder how much they are getting paid to post disinformation and crash peacefull gatherings they have no true interest in . For newbies it is good to consider opposing perspectives and decide what is true and works best for them. Just investing in .coms is a viable strategy for people who are risk adverse or don't possess the necessary sales skill.
Keep up the good factual posts that people can confirm and decide on their own.

Cheers

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It would more likely be people that have an interest in selling new gtlds, .com doesn't exactly need help. I imagine we have employees from these companies scattered throughout this forum. So you mentioned 23%, without any supporting links. It could be right, I just have no idea what you're referring to. Have links? When I post new startups are using these at a very small percentage, I back it up with links, with the information at hand. Apparently you have info that I haven't read?

slader23 said:

Remember kids born in 2000 will be salary earners in 2018, and will become a substantial part of the work force by 2020. They are the ones who "grew up" with NGTLD's and they will be the ones that big companies will be targeting to capture their disposable income.

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This deep fact based observation that today's 16 year old grew up with ngtlds causes me to doubt my blind faith in dot com. Whoever said “pioneers take the arrows and settlers take the land” was never faced with an opportunity like dot horse. Kids love ponies and nothing says family time like a day at the track. Your command of logic and economics is unlike any we have seen here in a long time. Thank you for debunk debugging the FUD about ngtlds.

I believe the focus of many investors on acquiring whatever available keywords they can grab in the latest new TLD launch has reduced the competition for Godaddy Auction and Namejet .Com domains.

Kate,
To put things in perspective, I have been domaining since 1999. I think the Internet will still exist in 20 years
I still have a hand full of 1999's/2000's simply out of nostalgia. I refer to them as my virgins. I'm not the only one that keeps them just for fun. In the chinese market, some trade/collect domains like baseball cards! Very few "care" if they are used or not, Corp. clients have hundreds just in case they decide they have a need for them.I have a client that has their own extension. It's nobody's business what they do with it . there is no rule that you have to use them in the way they were intended or you shouldn't buy them. That's why the "end user" drama is BS. People invest in lots of things and shelve them until they have a need to liquidate. It's not crime. It's not even a thought. Nor does it make it an illegitimate sale for statistical purposes. . yet that mindset exists in domains. No logic. Should a home sale not count because the owner uses it only once every 5 years? Should it be confiscated because it's not being used for it's intended use even thou there is no identifiable harm to a strangers claim they have superior rights just because your not using it? Absurd!

I bring out the brick phone once in a while. put it next to a smart phone and it's difficult to imagine it was once cutting edge, "state of the art". The internet of things wasn't even a thought in anyone's mind yet we're here now.

I don't believe the internet will operate in the same manner as it is today. Similar to : "Wireless" from"wired", one tap to connect vs dialing in.or a main frame to a device the size of your hand. Evolving to voice is a no brainer. How it will operate on the scale of the internet is the most exciting question. I most definitely believe in pondering the possibilities. The most important trait in "trail blazers" and advancing the human species. If one can believe that, it's not too much of a stretch to have a little faith in what the domain trail blazers are trying to accomplish regardless if other people believe they are just being self serving. More times than not it leads to insights others do not see. Most commonly referred to as scientific "breakthroughs" or "advancements" in many fields when really someone just took the time to think.
While Shane is a bit crass he certainly possesses the ability to think beyond today and appears to stay informed of advancements
that most people aren't even aware exist.
"So the window of opportunity is between a few years from now on and 20 years... but should you even invest in domain names then?"
Of course!
It's like asking if one should even participate in life knowing of an expiration date but not knowing the exact date. Probability suggests you would be missing out by not participating simply because you are "aware" of the possibility of expiring.

"But we also know that new extensions will need a lot of time to mature and gain acceptance"
Do we know? It's an erroneous assumption that doesn't take into account "breakthroughs" or "advancements"
Most people today are "aware" and use the technology as if they were born with it attached.. It's not at all necessary for them to understand how it works. Most don't know how any of the technology they use works let alone have the desire to know how a domain works. To suggest a need to gain acceptance is also erroneous. When I tell people what is available today the most common answer I get is cool ! great idea! because they have tried to obtain a domain useful to them and failed or settled like dordomai suggests people do. I wouldn't think of recommending .com just because when there are great alternates. The increase in start up use of "others" supports this. There is plenty of .coms to choose from yet they don't. there is renewed enthusiasm and interest to try again. Not once has anyone asked are they safe? will people be able to find us? The mood cools a bit when I go into a lengthy explanation of why some cost more to reg.
People have the same reaction as domainers. it's BS The good thing is they are still willing to look into it.

" my experience is not unlike that of other, normal people. People tend to trust extensions they are familiar with, and ignore the others."
How is it people ignore extensions that you and dordomai previously claimed "they don't even know they exist"
People are aware of bogus sites and emails. Yet it is most common people get ripped off via legit business hacks.
Do they stop going there ? NO Most people I know are "aware" to be more vigilant with their trust they are not
just ignoring everything that isn't blue.

What's better wn.media or wnmedia.com ? For a company that calls themselves wn media ?

Or cannabis.online verse cannabisonline.com ?

Phgauge000 said:

What's better wn.media or wnmedia.com ? For a company that calls themselves wn media ?

Or cannabis.online verse cannabisonline.com ?

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cannabis.online at $1200 per year renewal, no thanks.

Godaddy just acquired another 30K domain mainly .com portfolio today.

I know many here want to believe based on their present day purchases of GTLD's, but the man made demand is not strong enough to support it today.

Grandfathered $8 registrations still reign supreme, nobody is interested in 4-5 figure premium renewal fees, just a suckers game. I see many who keep throwing money into GTLD's, yet sell none. It is only a matter of time before they get slaughtered.

The registry wins, domainers lose, 97% of the people investing in GTLD's have no clue what they are doing.

I agree $1,200.00 per year is expensive to hold but it's peanuts for an online business. If you can't budget less than $4.00 per day for your online space you don't have much of a business.

wwwweb said:

cannabis.online at $1200 per year renewal, no thanks.

Godaddy just acquired another 30K domain mainly .com portfolio today.

I know many here want to believe based on their present day purchases of GTLD's, but the man made demand is not strong enough to support it today.

Grandfathered $8 registrations still reign supreme, nobody is interested in 4-5 figure premium renewal fees, just a suckers game. I see many who keep throwing money into GTLD's, yet sell none. It is only a matter of time before they get slaughtered.

The registry wins, domainers lose, 97% of the people investing in GTLD's have no clue what they are doing.

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It all depends on the risk appetite and preferences of the end user/investor buying the domain. Its wrong to throw out random numbers like 97% simply because we cannot quantify scenarios with infinite possibilities. In some cases renewals are a problem, in others it isn't...you can't even say "most" because there is an incredible amount of variance since no one trade scenario is the same when selling/acquiring domains. Still...you point out a relevant issue that I'm sure is taken into consideration, thanks for the post.

slader23 said:

It all depends on the risk appetite and preferences of the end user/investor buying the domain. Its wrong to throw out random numbers like 97% simply because we cannot quantify scenarios with infinite possibilities. In some cases renewals are a problem, in others it isn't...you can't even say "most" because there is an incredible amount of variance since no one trade scenario is the same when selling/acquiring domains. You still point out a relevant issue that I'm sure is taken into consideration.

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The only people who have made money in GTLD's are the guys with deep pockets who grabbed the top quality stuff before the premiums got jacked, or the registries who got suckers to pay up for high premium domains.

There are tens of thousand good premium domains sitting unregistered.

97% comes from people who have made money with GTLD's if they price in what they have invested, paid in renewals, and got out of it, including their time, and effort. It is just not happening.

I know you guys want to think you came along in 2015, and found gold, but it is just not the case.

You will continue to make the odd sale, but you will pile it all back in, along with paying above average, and premium renewals, the business plan just does not work across a broad spectrum.

They aren't giving any good names on the cheap, and cheap, look at what .blog just did.

They have taken you out of the game, before it even started.

There are guys here who say what is $1200 to a big company, who have never talked to a person who makes the call on that, just because you want to believe it doesn't make it true. First off you want to be paid a end user price for the domain, then you want to pass the buck on a $1200 premium, get real, across the board that will equal failure.

If you got the right keywords in 2014, and maybe scalped a few in 2015 off the reserve lists with low enough premiums, you might have a chance to grind out some profit. All the guys registered every scenario .company or whatever without wondering why the .com sits unbought for $988 from buydomains for past few years, and all other extensions are unregistered are part of the 97% that just want to believe what they want.

These guys are great for the industry, because they throw stupid money at everything, and make everyones portfolio worth more.

Lots of people theorizing about what businesses do. Can't believe so many people have MBAs.

wwwweb said:

The only people who have made money in GTLD's are the guys with deep pockets who grabbed the top quality stuff before the premiums got jacked, or the registries who got suckers to pay up for high premium domains.

There are tens of thousand good premium domains sitting unregistered.

97% comes from people who have made money with GTLD's if they price in what they have invested, paid in renewals, and got out of it, including their time, and effort. It is just not happening.

I know you guys want to think you came along in 2015, and found gold, but it is just not the case.

You will continue to make the odd sale, but you will pile it all back in, along with paying above average, and premium renewals, the business plan just does not work across a broad spectrum.

They aren't giving any good names on the cheap, and cheap, look at what .blog just did.

They have taken you out of the game, before it even started.

There are guys here who say what is $1200 to a big company, who have never talked to a person who makes the call on that, just because you want to believe it doesn't make it true. First off you want to be paid a end user price for the domain, then you want to pass the buck on a $1200 premium, get real, across the board that will equal failure.

If you got the right keywords in 2014, and maybe scalped a few in 2015 off the reserve lists with low enough premiums, you might have a chance to grind out some profit. All the guys registered every scenario .company or whatever without wondering why the .com sits unbought for $988 from buydomains for past few years, and all other extensions are unregistered are part of the 97% that just want to believe what they want.

These guys are great for the industry, because they throw stupid money at everything, and make everyones portfolio worth more.

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There are premium names out their with non premium renewals that were dropped in 2015 and remained unretained by the registry for regular premium pricing. I own a few of those types of names and recently got one accepted to the ROTD auction. If you read my posts I've already stated that the large percentage of premium ngtlds are being held by registries for ridiculous prices because they are trying to recoup a percentage of their initial investment. I don't understand how you can assume the investment strategy of every ngtld investor, that is completely illogical. Everyone has their own view of the market and they will operate according to their own set of ideals. Personally I only own a very thin portfolio 12 ngtlds but it took a lot of research into each particular ngtld for me to even consider spending a dime. The amount of effort it takes to get a good ngtld goes beyond looking at reserve lists, on numerous occasions I spent several hours looking at nearly a million available word.word combinations just to register one ngtld. I'm also very rigid in my budgeted renewals and will not pay more than $60 per year for an ngtld regardless of how good it is. If you want to operate and sell ngtlds at a basic level than yea you could try to pass on a $1200 renewal but the best guys in this niche are very meticulous in their methods and, like you, would laugh at anyone paying that much for an ngtld(unless it was some ungodly combination). You again state some very relevant things but honestly that only applies to people who aren't actually serious, those are the guys who reg shit and quite frankly that only helps my new gtlds look better.

Shane Bellone said:

Lots of people theorizing about what businesses do. Can't believe so many people have MBAs.

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For the record I've been self employed most of my life, have had / sold several successful brink and mortar businesses. My current one has been going strong since 1998, yes no MBA.

wwwweb said:

There are guys here who say what is $1200 to a big company, who have never talked to a person who makes the call on that, just because you want to believe it doesn't make it true.

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If you're referring to my comment above I talk to decision makers on a daily basis, from mom and pop businesses to corporations. Currently managing a portfolio within the financial industry of around 700 customers.

I can assure you many of them would not have an issue with a domain costing them 3 to 4 dollars per day.

If @Phgauge000 owns cannabis.online, which he probably does it's a fantastic domain and I'm sure he has the means to back and register it among others.

mad409 said:

I agree $1,200.00 per year is expensive to hold but it's peanuts for an online business. If you can't budget less than $4.00 per day for your online space you don't have much of a business.

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This money is nothing for good business!

At Summer 2015, I was thinking to register domain "x.digital" it just $220, but didn't do this.
And look at this now, they made a nice brand and website!

There is a lot of concentration on the domainer view of the domain name business in this thread at the expense of how businesses and end users look at domains. There is also an extrapolation of the idea that what was successful in .COM would be successful in the new gTLDs either as keywords or as domain hacks (that's actually what some of these "premium" new gTLDs are in reality).

What is worrying is how registries withold premium domains or try to auction them later in a drip feed. Many of the new gTLDs are still relatively unproven gTLDs so there's no real floor values for premiums and the premiums are based on prior data from other gTLDs.

It does take a few years, typically three to five, for a newly launched TLD to stabilise. The first two years or so of a new TLD are always abnormal in terms of registration and renewal patterns (yes, I have the data and study this kind of stuff) and web development and usage (I also run periodic web usage analysis surveys of all the new gTLDs and other gTLDs and ccTLDs.)

The domain footprint for most developed country level markets is dominated by the local ccTLD and .COM TLD. Together, they can occupy over 80% of that country's domain marketplace. The remaining 20% or so is filled with the legacy gTLDs (NET/ORG/BIZ/INFO/MOBI/ASIA) and ccTLDs from adjacent countries (.EU in the EU for example). This is the market segment in which most new gTLDs are trying to succeed. Some of the geo gTLDs have a large enough target market to make them pseudo-ccTLDs.

Some new gTLDs have become regional market TLDs in that they are dominated by countries from a region. This means that if you are pitching an English language keyword in a new gTLD that has an overwhelmingly non-English speaking registrant base, then you are out of luck. You would be better spending your time trying to sell a two or three word .COM to a market you understand.

The Mom and Pop section of the web development market is a crucial one for any new TLD. That's where a lot of development and promotion orginates. But despite being innovators and entrepreneurs, it is a conservative group in that it is more likely to use a .COM or a .ccTLD. The reason for this is that most of these businesses are local not global. And their target market is generally more familiar with .COM or the local .ccTLD. But some of them do develop websites and businesses on newly launched TLDs.

The .COM has gone legacy in some countries with a strong local ccTLD. That means that it is not the first choice TLD in these markets. The first choice TLD is the local ccTLD followed by .COM. To people in the USA, where .COM is the de facto ccTLD, that can be shocking. But .COM isn't really a single market. It is, like many other TLDs, a small global market with a large set of country level markets.

Rather than arguing about which new gTLD will be a .COM killer and whether new gTLDs will replace .COM, it might be better to focus on understanding where the registrant base for these new gTLDs is located and the kind of domain names that they are buying in other TLDs rather than applying the old "if it is valuable in .COM, it is valuable in every TLD" methodology.

Regards...jmcc

Phgauge000 said:

What's better wn.media or wnmedia.com ? For a company that calls themselves wn media ?

Or cannabis.online verse cannabisonline.com ?

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BOTH

mad409 said:

I agree $1,200.00 per year is expensive to hold but it's peanuts for an online business. If you can't budget less than $4.00 per day for your online space you don't have much of a business.

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If I were a cannabis business I would choose something else.
If I were a cannabis business and really wanted it I would buy it
because my "store" could net that amount in about 60 minutes.
bam done.

mad409 said:

For the record I've been self employed most of my life, have had / sold several successful brink and mortar businesses. My current one has been going strong since 1998, yes no MBA.

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So that's the "secret" No MBA
I'm in !

What's better wn.media or wnmedia.com ? For a company that calls themselves wn media ?

Or cannabis.online verse cannabisonline.com ?.

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for practical stuff in the real world (advertising, marketing, emails) the answer is simple: .com
That is what people can immediately recognize, there are no technical problems(extensions longer than 4 chars are not recognized or supported by some software systems), this will likely give you the best ROI in SEO and advertising

What is prettier? That is subjective and people will have different opinions on this I guess.

New.Life said:

This money is nothing for good business!

At Summer 2015, I was thinking to register domain "x.digital" it just $220, but didn't do this.
And look at this now, they made a nice brand and website!

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I like.digital WoW one of the best
If it happened again would you go for it?

-bookmark for later-