discuss The death of domaining?

greggb · Jul 17, 2015

There's no doubt that the internet has been the most exciting development for the human race since ~ 1990. It's opened all kinds of doors, and created many opportunities to make money. Domaining being a great example of such an opportunity.

But then, the printing press created many such opportunities. And so did radio. And so did television. And even though none are officially dead, the opportunities to make money in such mediums have been drastically reduced, because there's something way cooler in the 21st century: the internet.

The internet has been around for approximately 25 years (effectively more like 20). That's not very long on the scale of human history.

If you believe that history repeats itself (it does), you also have to believe that some other technology is going to come along and replace the internet (provided that we humans don't do something to set ourselves back many centuries, like have a nuclear war).

For fun, let's assume that for the next 50 years no launch codes will be entered, and no buttons will be pressed. And no super-virus will break out. And God won't inflict some kind of horrible disaster on the earth because he's so pissed-off at the creatures he created in his image.

Let's assume it will be business-as-usual for the next 50 years. Then, my questions are:

1) What is the chance that the internet will be deprecated by a newer technology? 50%, 75%, 100%? Or some other number, followed by a % symbol.

2) What might that newer technology be? 3-D, virtual reality, or something way more innovative?

3) If a newer technology comes along, what will that do to the value of domains that have no real value now...whose only value comes as the result of speculation?

I look forward to your answers. And I'll start by answering my own questions.

1) I believe the chances of a newer technology deprecating the internet within 50 years are 100%.
2) I believe the essence of such a newer technology will lie within brain interfacing, i.e. all you have to do is think to get what you want, because moving your fingers is so tiring, and not only that, but you can't do anything as quickly as you think, and there will be no limitations when the day comes that all you have to do is think (of course the real challenge then will be getting people to actually think).
3) As far as what a newer technology will do to the value of domain names you're holding now, in the hopes they will become valuable in the future...well obviously such a new technology will render them worthless. That logically follows.

So there you have it. Some hypothetical questions, to satisfy your need for hypothesis. "Hypothesis" being a noun. If what you need is more of an action or event than a substance or an entity, then perhaps my questions will satisfy your need for "hypothesizing".

Go ahead, and hypothesize. Everyone is doing it. At least all the cool people are.

kemjika11 · Jul 19, 2015

Domaining is dying? These are the types of comments I read and just move on. Factually off. Sdsinc nice comments

.

JB Lions · Jul 19, 2015

="DNVantage, post: 4942239, member: 959605"As contextual search advances, the need to remember domain name will reduce, ... less the need to remember the domain name, less the need to have a domain name that matches exactly your business name, .... less the need to match, less the demand, ... less the sales.

It seems we have a lot of people here that just think search engines and nothing else. I don't know how many times I've read that the name really doesn't matter, just that you show up in the SERPS. It's really thinking small, when most businesses want to grow. As if search engines are the only way to get traffic. Completely forgetting all the offline marketing, TV, print, radio, vehicles, events, just saying your name out loud etc. As time goes on things just get more competitive, a good name is just going to help. Even with contextual search, a name that is more on point is going to stand out, get more clicks. There will always be a demand for good names that can function everywhere, not just search engines.

HeyNow · Jul 19, 2015

dotbay said:
The telephone is celebrating it's 140th Birthday and I still use a phone and make phone calls.Domains are necessary just like phone numbers.

Not only that, just try obtaining a prime 800 number. You'd have to pay a king's ransom for the best ones and somehow finagle it.

deflee79 · Jul 20, 2015

Foresight will keep you on top no matter what happens. You can predict the future if you pay attention to the clues.

Chris Wright · Jul 21, 2015

Domain names are all about clear communication.
How do you tell your friend to find your unique icon?
"It's the one that has a stylized rolling plain, made up of flag stripes. Then there is a sun rising up from the horizon..."
Is that clearer / easier than a domain?
How do you tell your client how to find you, if it's search only?
"OK, Fred... do a search for 'forensic tax accountant in Seattle' then look at the 3rd page. Currently, we are #1 on the 3rd page."

Only universal telepathy will replace domains. Then we may not need money for anything...

dordomai · Jul 21, 2015

JB Lions said:
It seems we have a lot of people here that just think search engines and nothing else. I don't know how many times I've read that the name really doesn't matter, just that you show up in the SERPS. It's really thinking small, when most businesses want to grow. As if search engines are the only way to get traffic. Completely forgetting all the offline marketing, TV, print, radio, vehicles, events, just saying your name out loud etc. As time goes on things just get more competitive, a good name is just going to help. Even with contextual search, a name that is more on point is going to stand out, get more clicks. There will always be a demand for good names that can function everywhere, not just search engines.

as competition increases and SEO becomes always more confusing and unpredictable, adwords increasingly expensive, businesses will gravitate towards other advertising channels, TV, Newspapers(Online and Offline), Magazines, Radio, Streaming ads ect.

When you have only a few seconds to grab the viewers attention a short domain is useful. I don't think that will change. Even when streaming sites kill TV, online magazine replace magazines, and traditional print newspapers become extinct that will not change.

The ads will be where the viewers are and a good domain will work equally well for branding online or offline.

No one will want to visit or remember an obscure 3 word domain.

dordomai · Jul 21, 2015

HeyNow said:
Not only that, just try obtaining a prime 800 number. You'd have to pay a king's ransom for the best ones and somehow finagle it.

how much are they?

HeyNow · Jul 21, 2015

dordomai said:
how much are they?

You can't just "buy" them. If you drop your 800 number, it supposedly goes back into the pool and "arbitrarily" handed out to the first entity to request that particular number, or if no one request it, then randomly distributed. http://judithoppenheimer.com/ She's the 800 number guru.

Omar Negron · Jul 21, 2015

dotbay said:
The internet is the link between everyone in the entire world.

The internet is evolving and always will just like telephones.

Domains are necessary just like phone numbers.

Great point. Well said.

Of course non of us know what's going to happen in the future but I think looking to much into it "worried" about it isn't something to really dwell on. It's a fun topic to play around with but I continue to see domain names literally everywhere around me. More than ever, so not to sure what's going to happen in 50 years but right now, domains are hot.

-Omar

Paul · Jul 21, 2015

As someone who is quite familiar with the internal workings of the internet, I would argue that the internet is still in its infancy. By the time it's a mature technology, it'll be very different from the internet we know today.

A lot of the technologies that we predict will replace the internet--such as input devices that read thoughts rather than keystrokes--wouldn't be all that useful without the internet. They're more likely to compliment and/or revolutionize the internet.

When it comes to domain names, however, the future is much less certain. DNS is old and not up to par with the rest of the internet, in large part because of its centralized nature. The only reason it hasn't been replaced is because no competing technology has presented a reasonable mechanism for transition. Home networks often use mDNS in place of DNS, but for now that's only a LAN technology that doesn't pass between subnets. However, it does show the sort of innovation and backwards-compatibility that will be required of whatever ultimately replaces DNS. Will domaining still exist in this new system? Probably in some form, but it'll work a bit differently.

Skyvisum · Jul 22, 2015

I disagree in BLOCK LETTERS.We know stores investing heavily in their online business and buying more names to boost their business .Domaining is the starting point and link to a business.Be it EMD,brand names and whatever will lead customers to your business,it needs to be registered.Let's see what happens 10 yrs from now and then come back on namepros to leave our feedbacks once again on this same thread.

4better · Jul 22, 2015

I think domaining will always be part of the technological industry. 50 yrs from now, domaining will be more sophisticated and will keep in line with whatever advancement the human race will invent. It's all about names, identities, addresses. Unless our names are phased out in the future then domains too would be gone.

tomcarl · Jul 22, 2015

Bah, another one of these threads

I think there's been a couple of these posted every year since 2009ish or further.

No matter what trends come with web addresses, there will always be Good names, there will always be Crappy names and there will always be the desire for the shortest and best options available, these aren't unlimited, I don't see how this industry can die as long as domains exist.

And worst case scenario, you move on to website sales.

DnEbook · Jul 23, 2015

Ho Hum .........we still have phone numbers ........History

J9 · Aug 3, 2015

greggb said:
2) I believe the essence of such a newer technology will lie within brain interfacing, i.e. all you have to do is think to get what you want, because moving your fingers is so tiring, and not only that, but you can't do anything as quickly as you think, and there will be no limitations when the day comes that all you have to do is think (of course the real challenge then will be getting people to actually think).

I agree with your this point that all we will have to do is think of information we want, and we will get it in front of us. But how will you/search engine/some new technology decide, from where to get it from? Obviously an address is needed. And that address is a domain.

Let's say you want to buy a book. You think about it and many options comes in front of your eyes. Now you will decide from where to buy it from? Amazon, Ebay etc.

OR

You directly think to get the book from Amazon.com and the book is displayed in front of your eyes and you buy it.

In both the cases, domain is involved. So I don't think Domains are going to be worthless anytime before 100 years at least.

Keep Domaining.... and be Happy... :D:D:D and Make

NVI · Aug 3, 2015

greggb said:
There's no doubt that the internet has been the most exciting development for the human race since ~ 1990. It's opened all kinds of doors, and created many opportunities to make money. Domaining being a great example of such an opportunity.

But then, the printing press created many such opportunities. And so did radio. And so did television. And even though none are officially dead, the opportunities to make money in such mediums have been drastically reduced, because there's something way cooler in the 21st century: the internet.

The internet has been around for approximately 25 years (effectively more like 20). That's not very long on the scale of human history.

If you believe that history repeats itself (it does), you also have to believe that some other technology is going to come along and replace the internet (provided that we humans don't do something to set ourselves back many centuries, like have a nuclear war).

For fun, let's assume that for the next 50 years no launch codes will be entered, and no buttons will be pressed. And no super-virus will break out. And God won't inflict some kind of horrible disaster on the earth because he's so pissed-off at the creatures he created in his image.

Let's assume it will be business-as-usual for the next 50 years. Then, my questions are:

1) What is the chance that the internet will be deprecated by a newer technology? 50%, 75%, 100%? Or some other number, followed by a % symbol.

2) What might that newer technology be? 3-D, virtual reality, or something way more innovative?

3) If a newer technology comes along, what will that do to the value of domains that have no real value now...whose only value comes as the result of speculation?

I look forward to your answers. And I'll start by answering my own questions.

1) I believe the chances of a newer technology deprecating the internet within 50 years are 100%.
2) I believe the essence of such a newer technology will lie within brain interfacing, i.e. all you have to do is think to get what you want, because moving your fingers is so tiring, and not only that, but you can't do anything as quickly as you think, and there will be no limitations when the day comes that all you have to do is think (of course the real challenge then will be getting people to actually think).
3) As far as what a newer technology will do to the value of domain names you're holding now, in the hopes they will become valuable in the future...well obviously such a new technology will render them worthless. That logically follows.

So there you have it. Some hypothetical questions, to satisfy your need for hypothesis. "Hypothesis" being a noun. If what you need is more of an action or event than a substance or an entity, then perhaps my questions will satisfy your need for "hypothesizing".

Go ahead, and hypothesize. Everyone is doing it. At least all the cool people are.

carob · Aug 3, 2015

greggb said:
2) What might that newer technology be? 3-D, virtual reality, or something way more innovative?

I think we all agree you will still need some definitive address mapping for the internet.

But that does not really have to stay human-friendly domains as we know them. You can already edit the hosts file on your pc to send urls where you want them - why not give everyone their own domain system? So I can map the word house to my house and go to heating.house to control my thermostat.

People have mentioned images and that is already happening - people just take photos of items into shops to ask for a product and send emojis instead of longer text messages. Soon phones will just recognise anything from a photo, maybe no need for any sort of beacon, chip or tag.

I agree for the time being domains are wanted for brands but they can buy their own TLD. Also when everything has a digital context as it soon will the context determines a lot - wanting to find Hitachi could mean any one of their products, not the company, and the products might be deduced from my activity, location, spending history, friends, property.

Coca Cola had a funny campaign using emoji domains on .ws, the only extension they could find to support the emoji as names so far.

This is going to get interesting when you need addresses for all the physical things that connect to the net if humans want to find them.

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