discuss The death of domaining?

[greggb]

There's no doubt that the internet has been the most exciting development for the human race since ~ 1990. It's opened all kinds of doors, and created many opportunities to make money. Domaining being a great example of such an opportunity.

But then, the printing press created many such opportunities. And so did radio. And so did television. And even though none are officially dead, the opportunities to make money in such mediums have been drastically reduced, because there's something way cooler in the 21st century: the internet.

The internet has been around for approximately 25 years (effectively more like 20). That's not very long on the scale of human history.

If you believe that history repeats itself (it does), you also have to believe that some other technology is going to come along and replace the internet (provided that we humans don't do something to set ourselves back many centuries, like have a nuclear war).

For fun, let's assume that for the next 50 years no launch codes will be entered, and no buttons will be pressed. And no super-virus will break out. And God won't inflict some kind of horrible disaster on the earth because he's so pissed-off at the creatures he created in his image.

Let's assume it will be business-as-usual for the next 50 years. Then, my questions are:

1) What is the chance that the internet will be deprecated by a newer technology? 50%, 75%, 100%? Or some other number, followed by a % symbol.

2) What might that newer technology be? 3-D, virtual reality, or something way more innovative?

3) If a newer technology comes along, what will that do to the value of domains that have no real value now...whose only value comes as the result of speculation?

I look forward to your answers. And I'll start by answering my own questions.

1) I believe the chances of a newer technology deprecating the internet within 50 years are 100%.
2) I believe the essence of such a newer technology will lie within brain interfacing, i.e. all you have to do is think to get what you want, because moving your fingers is so tiring, and not only that, but you can't do anything as quickly as you think, and there will be no limitations when the day comes that all you have to do is think (of course the real challenge then will be getting people to actually think).
3) As far as what a newer technology will do to the value of domain names you're holding now, in the hopes they will become valuable in the future...well obviously such a new technology will render them worthless. That logically follows.

So there you have it. Some hypothetical questions, to satisfy your need for hypothesis. "Hypothesis" being a noun. If what you need is more of an action or event than a substance or an entity, then perhaps my questions will satisfy your need for "hypothesizing".

Go ahead, and hypothesize. Everyone is doing it. At least all the cool people are.

 

[Sam Roy]

Great article. I must congratulate you first for it.
I dont think internet technology would be obsolete. It has become a sine quo non for our modern day living. In future we will see further improvement and refinement. I believe speech to text translation could be integrated into internet technology so that we don't have to type ourselves but merely speak.
As about domains, I agree with you. Even domains go into oblivion, we domainers will have something to earn our living and profit from.

 

[carob]

To actually use a domain it is mapped to a numeric address. So without domains how do you map things?

The names are a convenience for humans, but in future a lot of interactions will be M2M.

If Google's idea of a Physical Web becomes reality, every physical object will have a unique url. Will brands or classes of objects want their own domains? So some of those new TLDs could look better then - silverespressopot314159.coffee is a more human friendly url if any humans ever look at those IOT urls.

 

[Domainace]

From an investment point of view, 50 years is as good as 5000 years. It's fun to speculate about what might happen, but it has almost no relevance to domaining activities today. For "future" domains, I don't go for technologies that are more than 10 years out.

For the record, I think it's not likely that domains will have huge value in 50 years. However, I might be wrong, and they might be worth many multiples of what they are today.

Anyway, domain values are the least of my worries about things 50 years from now.

 

[BrandChimp]

The telephone is celebrating it's 140th Birthday and I still use a phone and make phone calls.

The internet is another way of communication.

It's just getting better!

No more physical mail, news paper, movies, music and the list is long.

The internet is the link between everyone in the entire world.

The internet is evolving and always will just like telephones.

Domains are necessary just like phone numbers.

 

[Templr]

2) iot iiot ioe

As far as domaining, anything beyond a holographic Internet, the address is still digital. Don't see the 'Internet of' omitting the use of a domain/site until/or with beyond future development.

This is the beginning! Users will want shorter names to suit the now culture...?(psychology)

 

[SpareDomains]

I look forward to your answers. And I'll start by answering my own questions.

1) I believe the chances of a newer technology deprecating the internet within 50 years are 100%.

And I believe I'll be dead within 50 years 99.999%

Like how your always thinking ahead though.

 

[Kate]

Domaining is dead again ? Oh well.

 

[indiegrind]

The internet = television
Domains = Channels

I see it being with us for the rest of our lives

 

[carob]

Hi Gregg the older media you mentioned are either broadcast media like tv or one to one like telephone. The internet is one-to-one and one-to-many and many-to-one.

1) What is the chance that the internet will be deprecated by a newer technology?

Do you mean the internet protocols, or the whole system? Telepathy would supersede it, whereas new protocols would just upgrade it. Like mobiles taking over from landlines.

2) I believe the essence of such a newer technology will lie within brain interfacing

And voice, eye, gesture, sensor, and context controls that know or anticipate what you mean and what you want.

3) As far as what a newer technology will do to the value of domain names you're holding now, in the hopes they will become valuable in the future...well obviously such a new technology will render them worthless

I think domains have more than technical value as paths - they are also, like real world addresses and brand names, status markers and memory aids. Until people get used to other ways to find and mark things - they won't care as domains fade in importance.

Actually as people type less domains will be less significant as precise references - if your voice activated assistant gets a query from you it can see your location and your history so you could say "the bulb I bought last week" and it sees you are in the garden so it takes you to the garden shop site you bought plants from last week, not your favourite lightbulb seller. That's two less domain names to remember. Or none at all, if you just buy everything from Amazon.

 

[DNVantage]

Domaining will be GONE. poof, 20 years, more like in 15.

( OK, domainers, really please don't freak out, even 10 years is a long time! )

EMDs are no longer as important in SEO. How many years before business name as domain name no longer matters? Few months ago there was a mention about Google not showing domain name in mobile search. The way we use tech + ui (search engine, voice input, photos/icon's) to find information or go to sites, in couple of decades, domain names won't matter at all. Before we reach ignore-the-domain-name phase, maybe more shorter the name, better it is, even if it does not resemble the business name. 3L/4L/5L, xN .com's are already used for sites, even if they don't match the biz name. If the search engine can find the site for you, does domain name matter?

 

[Nerevar]

iPhones will likely be dead in 10 years, substituted by some other modern devices. Still, they are a good business now
The same could be true about domains.

 

[domainpizza]

In 50 years the address bar may be a botique or a gin joint where clothes are required but domains will still be adnano 'the nanotechnology of advertising'.

 

[disaac81]

It's all about how to get to where you want to be, or view what you want to view. With DNS and IP so embedded in everything it is unlikely that any change will be fast.

 

[BrandChimp]

Domaining will be GONE. poof, 20 years, more like in 15.

( OK, domainers, really please don't freak out, even 10 years is a long time! )

EMDs are no longer as important in SEO. How many years before business name as domain name no longer matters? Few months ago there was a mention about Google not showing domain name in mobile search. The way we use tech + ui (search engine, voice input, photos/icon's) to find information or go to sites, in couple of decades, domain names won't matter at all. Before we reach ignore-the-domain-name phase, maybe more shorter the name, better it is, even if it does not resemble the business name. 3L/4L/5L, xN .com's are already used for sites, even if they don't match the biz name. If the search engine can find the site for you, does domain name matter?

I don't know anyone that uses the search voice input. Think about security. You won't mind givin your payment information to a non .com site?

Brands need their matching.com to own their brand and bring trust to the customers.

They at least need their brand name .atrustedtld.

 

[BrandChimp]

In 20 years from now, I will no longer have a phone number, street address and a name.

 

[disaac81]

20 years, domains will be as ripe as ever, you have to look at the technology stack that runs the internet, and soon to be IoT, IoE - IP and DNS. There will always be a domain name, even if eventually it is in the background via some other input \ retrieve method.

 

[BrandChimp]

20 years, domains will be as ripe as ever, you have to look at the technology stack that runs the internet, and soon to be IoT, IoE - IP and DNS. There will always be a domain name, even if eventually it is in the background via some other input \ retrieve method.

The return of .net? Haha

 

[Kate]

Domaining will be GONE. poof, 20 years, more like in 15.

Domain names already are 30-year old. Just saying.

However, one possible outcome is that they become less relevant for advertising and branding purposes. But the Internet is a network and it needs locators, just like the telephone system has relied on numbers for over a century.

When the end is nigh, you will know. In the meantime, there is money to be made or will you jump off the ship now ?

 

[JB Lions]

Yeah, they're not going anywhere, regardless how technology advances, simply because everything needs direction. This has all been touched on above.

Phones, you need a number. You might not have to remember it, just save it once and put it under a name, but it's still a number.

We all have names, that's not going to change. You can't say I'm ........... nothing.

Wherever you live, has an address. Always.

Yes, tech advances but I'm still watching a TV at home. That isn't going anywhere, it just gets better over time. From black and white to color. Sets have been getting bigger and better, clearer etc. Same with the internet, not going anywhere, just going to continue to grow. And there will always be websites, it's just somebody's presence online. And it's going to need a name.

 

[Asfas1000]

50 years ? I can't see even 2 years ahead with any certainty...

 

[S-B]

The Internet is simply a series of connected computer networks.

The truth is devices will always be connected to each other unless North Korea takes over the world.

And if that's the case, I do indeed agree that domaining will be dead.

 

[Fancy.domains]

And if that's the case, I do indeed agree that domaining will be dead.

We all will be

 

[DNVantage]

There will always be a domain name, even if eventually it is in the background via some other input \ retrieve method.

there is money to be made or will you jump off the ship now ?

And it's going to need a name.

unless North Korea takes over the world.

And if that's the case, I do indeed agree that domaining will be dead.

After reading the responses, I had to re-read my post, did I make a mistake, Did I say, domains will be gone? No, I did not!

Technically you don't even need domains in the strict format as they are now, but that is another view for another post. For now, I will stick to, "Domaining will be gone."

Domaining will be gone, not domains. Everyone here is right, we need domains. It is domaining which will fizzle out...

From DomainSherpa site , domainer:
"A domainer is an individual or company that actively engages in the buying, selling, marketing, monetization and publishing of internet domain names and other related web and or internet-based properties."

Domains will be around for lot longer. Buying and Selling of domains is what will fizzle out! As contextual search advances, the need to remember domain name will reduce, ... less the need to remember the domain name, less the need to have a domain name that matches exactly your business name, .... less the need to match, less the demand, ... less the sales.

• When content is the king,
• and domain name starts to matter less and less in search results,
• and users bookmark sites
• and contextual search gets better and better in finding a site,

How does nice easy to remember domain name add lot of value?!

Some value yes, lot? no. Enough to pay a lot for? no. Enough to be a Domainer???​

As for new tlds, would you be really surprised, if in 10 years, any word, even your last name, your business name, or anything you fancy, is allowed as tld? Haven't we crossed 1000 new tld? Maybe after 10 years, everyone will be allowed to get their own unique tld for an annual fee. We will have tld registrars to manage our pTLD (personal-TLD).

Will you really want a .com or any gTLD/nTLD for business name, when you can have your own pTLD. Registrars will still make money, with domains or pTLD. So, I guess there will be some TLDing along with some Domaining!

Even if pTLDs don't happen ..... sure, it will always be nice to have a easy to remember name, but the more powerful the search engines gets, the less the need to remember the domain name. Then why pay for one, why not have a name that sort of matches your name with a reasonable tld?

Why have only text based domain name in search results? Search engines could easily show a schema based designmarked graphics/icon/favicon instead of domain name. Mobile friendly update? Why not a "website graphics/icon/favicon" freindly search engine update. Use your unique design-mark, which will be shown left of your search result! So which is easier to recognize? The unique icon or domain name? Sure this would take years to be come a standard but this will lead to less demand for easy to remember domain name.

Here an old NP post : Google eliminating domains from search results , please extrapolate and see what will be the scenario in couple of decades, though at the rate which, search/user-input is becoming smarter, I think 20 years is too long.

P.S. I think even 15 years is too long, but the domaining tail will be there after a decade or so, and domainers know how much the long tail matters .... Domaining is still good be in for a decade or bit more.

 

[Kate]

Domaining will be gone, not domains. Everyone here is right, we need domains. It is domaining which will fizzle out...

...

Domains will be around for lot longer. Buying and Selling of domains is what will fizzle out!

The fundamental idea around domaining is very easy to understand: domain names are valuable as advertising tools. Before the WWW, domain names were not valuable.
As long as businesses advertise their domain names, put them on business cards etc, domain names will continue to be relevant. Therefore, good, brandable, memorable domains will remain desirable.
As simple as that.

The doomsay about the death of domain names is very old. You know, domain names are no longer relevant because google, SEO, this or that. I've been hearing this stuff for fifteen years. But it's not true. Or it's only part of the truth.

What is the reality ?

• Global demand for domain names continues to grow at a fast pace. How can domain be less relevant, not fashionable when there are more and more being registered every day ?
  
• Aftermarket still going strong, record sales.

As contextual search advances, the need to remember domain name will reduce, ... less the need to remember the domain name, less the need to have a domain name that matches exactly your business name, .... less the need to match, less the demand, ... less the sales.

I don't want to rely on google alone for people to find us, and hope we will be on top of search results.

As for new tlds, would you be really surprised, if in 10 years, any word, even your last name, your business name, or anything you fancy, is allowed as tld? Haven't we crossed 1000 new tld? Maybe after 10 years, everyone will be allowed to get their own unique tld for an annual fee. We will have tld registrars to manage our pTLD (personal-TLD).

I think that the cost of having one's own TLD will decrease in the next few years. But for practical reasons, we probably cannot have millions of strings. Private TLDs are not for everyone. On the other hand the amount of possible domains under a given TLD is unlimited.

I don't believe in pTLDs for a simple reason, even in 2015 the vast majority of people don't see the point of owning their own domain name. They just use free mail (like gmail) + a facebook page. While some Internet-savvy people get their own domain for E-mail or for their blog, domain names are generally bought for business purposes.