Hey guys, have been away for a while, hope all is well. Just wanted to say the quality of the posts in this thread have improved considerably over the past year, I’ve learnt a ton, so thanks. Secondly, given you’ve all torn the “VR Terms” and “what will apple do” debates to shreds I thought I'd throw my bullsh*t predictions on the pile. (meant to post this months ago).
Apple will launch iVR & iAR tech, apps and platforms in June, but the combination of the two worlds will be primarily marketed as iXR.
OR...
Apple will launch the following;
iAR for 'tech & apps' associated with 'MobileAR & Tablets'.
iVR for 'tech & apps' associated with 'MobileVR & HMDs'.
iXR 'tech & apps' used with 'XR Glasses that sync with the i8' (out in mid-2018).
The big question is whether iVR/iAR will be launched on a i7S or a new i8. Scoble might be onto something regarding iPhone's 10-year anniversary. Given the i7 still has another year in its cycle I can only see Apple doing one of two things in June/July;
...they'll either announce a new i8 (iVR/iAR/iXR compatible) with a partially transparent screen for their 10-year anniversary, one year early in the iPhone7 cycle (if iXR is revealed to be 'glasses' and not just an umbrella term, then iXR will be announced for release in mid-2018).
OR...
...they'll launch iVR/iAR/iXR on a new iPhone7S at the anniversary. The i8 won't be shown in 2017 as they'll want to maximise i7S sales. (again, if iXR is revealed to be 'glasses' it'll be announced for release in mid-2018). This means the i8 launch would probably coincide with the XR glasses launch and they would be launched as together in mid-2018.
My gut tells me such a radical shift in mobile tech is due in 2018, not 2017, so unless Apple's R&D is a year ahead of everyone else I don’t expect the i8 or XR glasses until early-mid 2018. In the meantime all you iPhone imbeciles will need to be happy with an update, a new app, and a new watch which will eventually sync with your XR glasses ; )
Regardless of release times, Apple will use 'XR' primarily because it is short, aesthetically pleasing, and it has sex appeal. IMO, Apple won't use the term 'mixed reality' or 'MR' (iMR?).
Microsoft will keep identifying it product range as Mixed Reality but will also release hardware and software primarily described as 'virtual reality' under the 'mixed reality' umbrella (MR will be portrayed as the superior product). MS won't adopt the term AR until they're ultimately forced to around mid-late 2018, but again it will be a sub-set niche under MR. MS will not officially use the term XR.
Hololens wont launch to the public until early-mid 2019.
Scorpio will be announced sometime June-Oct this year for an early-mid 2018 release. A wireless HMD for Scorpio will be announced late-2017 but other HMDs launching this year will be Scorpio-compatible so it won’t be required.
Zoon does not make a comeback.
PlaystationVR will release an upgrade to the PSVR by Oct-2018, but the big changes won't happen until mid-2019 with the release of the PS5.
HTC will release a wireless gen-2 Vive sometime between late-2017 and mid-2018.
Magic Leap will release dev kits in early-2018 with a launch date of early-mid 2019.
Google will release a wireless HMD in collaboration with HTC and Lenovo in late-2017 for an early-mid 2018 release. Google will primarily focus on expanding the Daydream platform and incorporating AR & AI into Chrome in 2018.
Facebook will launch a ‘VR Rooms’-like section on their platform at F8 2018, but it will take a while to roll out. Ultimately, VR will take a backseat to its AR operations for at least 18months as FB directs its resources towards merging AR with its user-experience. Zuckerberg's 10-year plan for VR won't really begin to gain momentum until mid-late 2018 when more HMDs are available and the VR marketplace is more settled. FB will attempt to cast itself as an all-inclusive AR/VR platform (eg, directions, shopping, VR rooms), and won’t officially promote MR or XR unless in a massive deal with MS or Apple. FB will also reluctantly support the release of a mediocre Rift 2.
Oculus. The Rift is in a little trouble. With a ton of new HMDs flooding the market in 2017/18, PSVR growing steadily and Scorpio to launch in early-mid 2018, Oculus will quite possibly be squeezed out of the HMD marketplace unless the price drops by 30% or the wireless Santa Cruz cements itself as a top-3 HMD. Regardless, something has to change, and a merger is a good option imo.
Intel announced it will release its Project Alloy in late-2017 but I think there is a good chance we won’t see it until early-mid 2018. I think it will initially be a failure but future big-name collaborations will allow for a gen-2 to be released under another name.
Lenovo will release one of the best HMDs in mid-2017 and then follow it up again in mid-2018. I wouldn't be surprised if they can create a top-3 HMD in one of these years (price and quality).
Random Predictions
Spielberg's Ready Player One in 2018 will be among the top-5 biggest marketing events for VR before 2019.
Scorpio will massively change the VR market-share and power balance in 2018. This will force at least one big name to pull-out of the market by 2019 and another to look for a merger (my money is on Oculus being one of them).
PCVR/WebVR will begin to gain traction with the flood of new VR HMDs in 2017. Google and Facebook developments in Social VR will be key to the rate of growth.
Terms
‘VR’ will sell 3-5 times as many domains as any other term.
‘AR’ will sell a lot but isn’t as well suited to domains as VR.
‘XR’ will sell (if Apple adopts the term) but given it’s a catch-all term specific keywords won’t generally apply. If Apple can cement the term into popular culture it will eventually become more applicable to domains.
‘MR’ will sell but given it’s a catch-all term specific keywords won’t apply to the same extent as VR or AR. If MS can cement the term into popular culture it will eventually become more applicable to domains.
'Holo' will eventually sell but demand won’t begin until 2019 at earliest, probably 2020. This is primarily dependent on the future of the Hololens.
'360' will sell initially but fade out by 2020.
‘WebVR’ will sell a few but not many.
‘Merged Reality’, ‘Hyper Reality’, ‘AVR’, ‘MVR’, ‘MobileVR’, ‘Augmented’ and ‘Virtuality’ won’t sell much.
Ok, thats enough rambling. If I'm way off on any dates or details, or am just forgetting something obvious or worth mentioning let me know, cheers.
PS: Bought my first XR last month..... XR///Communications
