analysis Why Ntlds will never work

[Revisiting]

Easy to discuss the almost hidden 'dot' and the market and users lack of awareness. So lets move on to the public mind-set that will ultimately reject Ntlds (except for maybe a very few)
I've mentioned in another post - how it actually took our introduction to the internet and it's many want to be users many years to be become comfortable with the 'No space between' two/three word presentation of a domain. Anybody under about 30 years of age won't connect with that these days .
So lets move on.

The internet awareness and value system is built on returns. The connection is built on a basic reward system and IT-WORKS. The reason .biz .info and the REST didn't find their mark is because there was nothing new or to be gained. Sure key word searchers would visit, but unless it was a very niche site or a business card website - there was no gain for a visit.

So lets get to the crutch - There is nothing to be offered in the Ntld space outside of the recognised TLD parameters - Sure, and I do appreciate Inventiveness, Creativity and WordArt which will take us all by surprise from time to time. But What you cant do - is reinvent the connectivity of what is already there

Ntlds will be seen as an opportunistic field by domain speculators - An unrecognised - So yet to be trusted 'Input/address field' by users . And finally totally oblivious for Marketing purposes (You can't make a miniscule dot stand out for connectivity/readability - unless it's intuitive)

Happy (and want to read the counters) I'm always eager to learn

 

[Henry Y]

Not really. My argument is the lack of reported sales reflects the reality that a lack of demand exists.

Brad

I disagree.

Reported sales only account for a very small proportion of all sales, are mainly domainer-domainer sales, and ignore domain registrations. They cannot reflect end user side and cannot show domain usages, and hence cannot reflect demand.

You should use the statistics about domain usages to show the demand.

 

[Henry Y]

Back on Earth 1....

Reported sales (from NameBio) in the last year -

All nGTLD -

1,627 Total Sales
$2.7m Dollar Volume

.COM only -

126,700 Total Sales
138.5M Dollar Volume

1000+ new extensions have yielded 1.9% of the dollar volume of just .COM in the last year.

Math. Empirical data. Not impressive.

The rhetoric does not match the reality.

Brad

It is a typical wrong application of math and statistics. Have you ever seen any investment analysts comparing revenue of a big company to that of a new startup? Never as it is meaningless and cannot conclude if the new startup performs well or not. They use ratios, such as asset turnover ratio, to do fair comparisons instead. Similarly, you should use ratios, such as the ratio of reported sales to total domain registrations, to do the comparison.

Also, you better do a trend analysis to see the performances of .com and ngTLDs over the past few years in order to have a bigger picture of the reality.

 

[bmugford]

There are endless unreported .Com sales as well.

There is no reason there would be a higher % of ntlds unreported.

Low reported sales = low overall sales.

Brad

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

Aftermarket sales can't happen - if it is available for registration (because domainers ignore it).

I work with WHOIS daily for years and I see TONS of endusers there...
From individuals and up to fintech companies like SunFinance.group

 

[jmcc]

Also, you better do a trend analysis to see the performances of .com and ngTLDs over the past few years in order to have a bigger picture of the reality.

Building a model of NGT and .COM performance is actually a lot more complex than building a model for a startup. The .COM is a much older gTLD than any of the NGTs. The renewal rate and registration years are also quite different as are the renewal rates. Some of the heavily discounted NGTs have low renewal rates. That's simple enough to understand. What isn't widely understood is that the .COM gTLD is actually a composite of a lot of country level markets with a much smaller global market. Renewal rates and sales prices vary according to the economics of these markets. Some of the NGTs are incredibly geographically focused to the extent that they are pseudo-ccTLDs. (The geo NGTs are good examples of this.) NGT sales are typically high-value keywords or large companies taking a gamble. There are smaller sales but the problem most of the NGTs face is that there is not much of a primary market let alone a secondary market.

Regards...jmcc

 

[Henry Y]

Building a model of NGT and .COM performance is actually a lot more complex than building a model for a startup. The .COM is a much older gTLD than any of the NGTs. The renewal rate and registration years are also quite different as are the renewal rates. Some of the heavily discounted NGTs have low renewal rates. That's simple enough to understand. What isn't widely understood is that the .COM gTLD is actually a composite of a lot of country level markets with a much smaller global market. Renewal rates and sales prices vary according to the economics of these markets. Some of the NGTs are incredibly geographically focused to the extent that they are pseudo-ccTLDs. (The geo NGTs are good examples of this.) NGT sales are typically high-value keywords or large companies taking a gamble. There are smaller sales but the problem most of the NGTs face is that there is not much of a primary market let alone a secondary market.

Regards...jmcc

It is already incorrect to group ngTLDs for analysis because each ngTLD has distinct niche markets and pricing models.

 

[jmcc]

It is already incorrect to group ngTLDs for analysis because each ngTLD has distinct niche markets and pricing models.

Most people doing any serious analysis of the NGTs do not group them as a single gTLD.

Regards...jmcc

 

[Jurgen Wolf]

People buy what they see...
When they see .xyz banners almost everywhere - they buy it regularly and even in 5F range...

 

[Jim H]

Some of the companies that manage them don't have good credibility, but some are slowly gaining people's trust.