"When will it drop?" game

[soggyindo]

hi all,

i wonder if anyone can work out an accurate time when this name will drop?

Created: 2006-10-04
Expires: 2008-10-04
Updated: 2008-11-14
Registrar Status: Redemption Period

Many, many thanks to the person who can give me the best clue!

:tu:

 

[JoshuaPz]

Since the domain was last updated on 11/14, that's probably the day it entered its redemptionPeriod. redemptionPeriod (usually) lasts 30 days and the pendingDelete phase 5 days. The domain will drop on the the 6th day following its entering pendingDelete. Plugging this all in:

11/14 <= enters redemptionPeriod
12/14 <= enters pendingDelete
12/20 <= domain drops (between 2pm EST and 4pm EST)

 

[soggyindo]

Since the domain was last updated on 11/14, that's probably the day it entered its redemptionPeriod. redemptionPeriod (usually) lasts 30 days and the pendingDelete phase 5 days. The domain will drop on the the 6th day following its entering pendingDelete. Plugging this all in:

11/14 <= enters redemptionPeriod
12/14 <= enters pendingDelete
12/20 <= domain drops (between 2pm EST and 4pm EST)

hey josh, thanks so much for the calcs.

i went to rep you but it seems i have to much already. if anyone else finds this useful, if they could rep josh i'd be thankful!

 

[Michael]

If it is pending delete on the 14th it'll drop on the 19th. Pending delete is 5 days, not 6. Also, different registrars have different redemption periods, so knowing the registrar would help make the estimate more accurate.

 

[Len]

Your best bet, if you really want this domain, is to check the whois every day until the status changes to Pending Delete. The redemption period of 30 days cannot be relied on, infact it can be anything from 30-45 days.

 

[JoshuaPz]

If it is pending delete on the 14th it'll drop on the 19th. Pending delete is 5 days, not 6. Also, different registrars have different redemption periods, so knowing the registrar would help make the estimate more accurate.

I could be wrong, but I could have sworn the domain deletes on its 6th day after entering pendingDelete. The idea behind this is to ensure domains always drop within that 2pm-4pm ET window. If a domain enters the pendingDelete stage on 12/15 @ 11pm, it will drop on 12/21 between 2pm & 4pm. So the actual duration of pendingDelete is no less than 5 but no more than 6 days.

You are also correct that redemptionPeriod is usually 30 days but can very depending on the registrar. Can you tell us who the domain's registrar is?

 

[Chef Patrick]

Your best bet, if you really want this domain, is to check the whois every day until the status changes to Pending Delete. The redemption period of 30 days cannot be relied on, in fact it can be anything from 30-45 days.

Even one step further, if you want the domain name back order it with GoDaddy. They will send you emails throughout the process.

 

[soggyindo]

what a smart bunch! thanks guys, it'll be good to see who's closest!

sorry i should've added the registrar - it's Tucows.

 

[Michael]

I could be wrong, but I could have sworn the domain deletes on its 6th day after entering pendingDelete. The idea behind this is to ensure domains always drop within that 2pm-4pm ET window. If a domain enters the pendingDelete stage on 12/15 @ 11pm, it will drop on 12/21 between 2pm & 4pm. So the actual duration of pendingDelete is no less than 5 but no more than 6 days.

You are also correct that redemptionPeriod is usually 30 days but can very depending on the registrar. Can you tell us who the domain's registrar is?

Yea, but I'm pretty sure the first day counts.

Day 1 - Dec 14th - pendingDelete
Day 2 - Dec 15th - pendingDelete
Day 3 - Dec 16th - pendingDelete
Day 4 - Dec 17th - pendingDelete
Day 5 - Dec 18th - pendingDelete
Day 6 - Dec 19th - drop

So it spends 5 days pending delete, and drops on the 6th day (19th). Knowing Tucows they'll probably just warehouse it or try to sell it in their aftermarket before letting it drop though.

 

[JoshuaPz]

So it spends 5 days pending delete, and drops on the 6th day (19th). Knowing Tucows they'll probably just warehouse it or try to sell it in their aftermarket before letting it drop though.

You're right. My bad.

I don't think Tucows warehouses all dropping domains -- only ones it judges to be premium. I've compiled a list of all the domains they're offering at YummyNames.com and came up with 21,288 names; that seems to me like only a small percentage of Tucows domains that have dropped over the past few years given they're the 4th-biggest registrar.

I think I also recall reading Tucows has long grace / redemption periods, so we're probably talking closer to 45 days (or more). I agree with Chef Patrick: Just backorder it with GoDaddy and you won't need to get your hands so dirty.

 

[Archangel]

Your best bet, if you really want this domain, is to check the whois every day until the status changes to Pending Delete. The redemption period of 30 days cannot be relied on, infact it can be anything from 30-45 days.

Some ext & registrars have like, a 14-day window. I know this from bad experiences

 

[Michael]

Some ext & registrars have like, a 14-day window. I know this from bad experiences

I thought ICANN requires a minimum 30-day redemption period.

 

[soggyindo]

You're right. My bad.

I don't think Tucows warehouses all dropping domains -- only ones it judges to be premium. I've compiled a list of all the domains they're offering at YummyNames.com and came up with 21,288 names; that seems to me like only a small percentage of Tucows domains that have dropped over the past few years given they're the 4th-biggest registrar.

I think I also recall reading Tucows has long grace / redemption periods, so we're probably talking closer to 45 days (or more). I agree with Chef Patrick: Just backorder it with GoDaddy and you won't need to get your hands so dirty.

this name definitely isn't premium -- just a brandable that would suit a personal project.

it's great hearing everyone's analysis. if people post their bets i'll let everyone know when it did drop - and whose strategy was the closest

:bingo:

 

[Archangel]

I thought ICANN requires a minimum 30-day redemption period.

I've names at namesbeyond.com (horrible registrar) that gaave me a 14-day grace period. I hate them and will never use them again.

 

[wussadotcom]

Nice info. Unlucky for me I didn't get the domain I wanted as the registrar auctioned it off their drop market. Jezzz..

 

[Weber]

I've been watching a name that expired on 9/27/2008. Status is still: Pending Delete Restorable.

 

[Keith]

You could always attempt to contact the current owner. This way they can renew it and sell it to you. It may cost a little more but ensures that you get the name and it does'nt go to auction. Depends on the quality and if multiple people backorder it I guess.

I just did this with a name that I really wanted and I knew it would have multiple backorders. I figured their cost was around $100 to renew it and then I gave an extra $100 for the name. Not a bad deal for buyer or seller!

Oh man, should I be telling you this