What will the price be in January 2009 llll.com

[domainator1]

What are your estimates on the price guide of january of 2009
lowest crappiest llll.com

 

[filter]

possibly around the level of CCC.com -> $150 minimum

just doing straight extrapolation from percent growth to this point gives larger numbers - ie, an anti-premium LLLL.com sold for $12 in early November would be a quick sale at $48 today ... which corresponds to approximately 60% increase per month:

Nov: $12
Dec: $12 * 1.6 = $19.20
Jan: $19.20 * 1.6 = $30.72
Feb: $30.72 * 1.6 = $49.15
Mar: $49.15 * 1.6 = $78.64
Apr: $78.64 * 1.6 = $125.82
May: $125.82 * 1.6 = $201.32
Jun: $201.32 * 1.6 = $322.12
Jul: $322.12 * 1.6 = $515.39
Aug: $515.39 * 1.6 = $824.63
Sep: $824.63 * 1.6 = $1319.41
Oct: $1319.41 * 1.6 = $2111.06
Nov: $2111.06 * 1.6 = $3377.69
Dec: $3377.69 * 1.6 = $5404.32
Jan: $5404.32

I'm pretty sure it's unrealistic to expect a constant 60% growth per month though! More likely, as price gets above $100, the percent increase will attenuate as there are fewer buyers with budgets to support speculation in that range. Likewise with prices over $500 and $1000 ...

Considering that LLL.com prices now well over $5000 increase at a rate closer to 6% per month (ie, roughly doubling each year) ... that gives another parameter for the model - the rate of decrease for the percentage increase on the way up to $5000 and beyond.

Without getting tooooo precise now, but just guesstimating with that in mind .... here's one scenario with percent increase falling off by about 1/3 for each "psychological barrier" price point

Increase up to $50 at 60% per month
Increase up to $100 at 40% per month
Increase up to $500 at 27% per month
Increase up to $1000 at 17% per month
Increase up to $5000 at 12% per month
Increase up to $10000 at 8% per month

So, rolling that out from say $50 starting in March

Mar: $50 * 1.4 = $70
Apr: $70 * 1.4 = $98
May: $98 * 1.3 = $127.40
Jun: $127.40 * 1.3 = $165.62
Jul: $165.62 * 1.3 = $215.30
Aug: $215.30 * 1.3 = $279.89
Sep: $279.89 * 1.3 = $363.86
Oct: $363.86 * 1.3 = $473.02
Nov: $473.02 * 1.2 = $567.63
Dec: $567.63 * 1.2 = $681.16
Jan: $681.16

Toss a few flat months and even "20% market corrections" into this "WAG model" and it still looks like low-end LLLL.com may do a bit better than CCC.com over the next year.

But of course, :yell: "PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RETURNS" :yell:

Anyone have a more realistic model and maybe even a bit of data to support it, please do post it!

 

[leede]

i think around $400

 

[MadAboutDomains]

Probably about 30$

 

[snoop]

I think around $15. Strange that these (and lll.com) would be rising whilst the rest of the market is in decline. A sharp correction in prices is due in my view.

 

[filter]

no one still gunning for reg fee ...?

seriously, have to appreciate people sticking their necks out a bit to put a prediction out there. I guess we'll be seeing how the acronym market plays out this year, soon enough .....

 

[epasaport]

no one still gunning for reg fee ...?

..

:D :D

 

[notlikeyou]

$40
I think that we will start to see a bigger chasm between the lower end & the top end. The all premiums, pronounceable(the truly pronounceable, NOT the creative ones) will maintain/slightly increase from todays prices. Most of the low end is where the majority of new to the market, average joe, late to the party, money is going. With that being where most can afford to accrue multiple domains, & not break the bank. The market will cool & revert but not to the level of finding ones at $15-$20, but I do think a correction is on the way. If you look back that's a huge ROI if you picked up any before the sellout. I think a good barometer will be the number of bidders you see in auctions for the average/low end domains. Do I want to be correct? No.

 

[-REECE-]

I sure hope so!

Don't think it's going to happen though...

I think around $15. Strange that these (and lll.com) would be rising whilst the rest of the market is in decline. A sharp correction in prices is due in my view.

 

[italiandragon]

I think around $15. Strange that these (and lll.com) would be rising whilst the rest of the market is in decline. A sharp correction in prices is due in my view.

Yes absolutely, very sharp, I`m actually thinking to drop them all.

Think that yestarday I bought REX.com for just $1,000 ....panic selling....God domains are worthless.....this morning also I received an answer from the owner of GHJ.com that scared by your comment offered the domain for $200 , what do you think, should I buy it or price will reach reg fee for 3 letter .com too?

Please, spread more negative and pessimist opinions around all the forums and blogs so these people will start getting scared and you and I may get great bargains.....but please do not say this to anyone, it will our little secret...





:yell:

I`m itchy to yell.

:yell: :yell: :yell:

 

[netklick]

Yes absolutely, very sharp, I`m actually thinking to drop them all.

Think that yestarday I bought REX.com for just $1,000 ....panic selling....God domains are worthless.....this morning also I received an answer from the owner of GHJ.com that scared by your comment offered the domain for $200 , what do you think, should I buy it or price will reach reg fee for 3 letter .com too?

Please, spread more negative and pessimist opinions around all the forums and blogs so these people will start getting scared and you and I may get great bargains.....but please do not say this to anyone, it will our little secret...





:yell:

I`m itchy to yell.

:yell: :yell: :yell:

I'm itchy to yell... :yell: Now I know your secrets I am going to wait for LLL.com to reach reg fees! You should pass on that $200 LLL.com and wait for it go to reg fee too. :hehe: Wow it feels like 1990s!

 

[thebutler]

Buyout one year later

One big factor will be the large number of low quality ones that are up for renewal around November. Post buyout one year later factor.

 

[italiandragon]

One big factor will be the large number of low quality ones that are up for renewal around November. Post buyout one year later factor.

that`s right , they did not worth reg fee 1 year ago, so why they should worth reg fee now.

LLLL.com worth nothing.

 

[jacal1]

Think that yestarday I bought REX.com for just $1,000

Nice!

 

[italiandragon]

Nice!

Hi Alan, how are you doing?

I have not see you for a while bashing LLLL.com after you declared last year that they would never run out....what is your feeling right now? ( so I`ll do the opposite )

 

[snoop]

Yes absolutely, very sharp, I`m actually thinking to drop them all.

Think that yestarday I bought REX.com for just $1,000 ....panic selling....God domains are worthless.....this morning also I received an answer from the owner of GHJ.com that scared by your comment offered the domain for $200 , what do you think, should I buy it or price will reach reg fee for 3 letter .com too?

Please, spread more negative and pessimist opinions around all the forums and blogs so these people will start getting scared and you and I may get great bargains.....but please do not say this to anyone, it will our little secret...


:yell:

I`m itchy to yell.

:yell: :yell: :yell:

lol Talk about a drama queen, I don't know why people sometimes go on these silly rants when it is suggested certain domains might fall in value. Some people, like above carry on as though you've just suggested all names are near worthless and the suggestion that certain names are ovepriced actually means in their mind "let the names drop".

 

[accent]

One big factor will be the large number of low quality ones that are up for renewal around November. Post buyout one year later factor.

It just ain't so.

http://dyyo.com/analysis_remaining.php

The buyout was as straight-line as any graph you will ever see - it was based on the growth of the internet. There was only a slight acceleration at the end.

I believe the "natural" price of LLLL.coms - now that they have the "premium domain" moniker - is 1/26th of the price of similar LLL.coms, probably somewhat higher than that, as Italian Dragon has pointed out. The only real question in my mind is how long it will take to get there. There still are lots of LLLL.com holders who are willing to sell at lower prices than the $250+ minimum that would be the target under that theory. There also is sticker shock, someone presented with LLLL.coms priced higher than he is used to paying resists at first, however much he wants them.

Someone mentioned in another thread that at least one big company has been buying up LLLL.coms. This is a very small market for the kind of money such buyers can bring to bear.

 

[dezinerite]

I only just saw this thread ~oops~ I'm predicting the LLLL.com with the worst letter combinations ever to be at about $200 by Jan 2009.

The price of the LLLL.com will obviously continue to increase but will remain stagnant every once in a while.

 

[chimaera]

$30. The hype will die down when people realise that xqzv.com is never, ever, going to sell to an end user.

 

[italiandragon]

Mind you, but with LLL.com already going for minimun $10,000, prices are starting to look too cheap to be true now:

$10,000 /26 = $384

:ghost: