Trends and Illusions for 2008: Predictions

[Spade]

Much has been hyped about many new trends in domain investing. In this thread Im going to explore the trends that I think are real, and the ones that are superficial or illusions. I invite discussion and debate on this topic.

Trends: The Rise of the LLLL.com

The LLLL.com is an interesting monster in itself. Representing hundreds of thousands of domain names. It has become the domainers currency as of late and the truth is that it will continue to gain ground on its older cousin, the LLL.com.

What LLLL.com's are worth investing in? Primarily ones which form an easily pronounceable base or have premium lettering and good patterns. These names are solid for acronyms and new brand names. These type of domain names are easy to recall and quick to type - making branding much eaiser, and requiring less work.

Which LLLL.com's will turn out to be busts? LLLL.com's with random poor lettering. Domains containing x, z, q - ect. These names although should gain some ground - not enough to make the hold worth it. There are substancially better investments then this class of domain.

Illusions: The hot streak of .mobi

Earlier in 2007, Apple released the iPhone. A cell phone with a built in browser that allows for reasonable download speeds, and easy browsing. This phone also has built in wifi to connect anywhere there is a hot spot. Making mobile websites no longer limited to small bits of data.

.mobi came too late. In 2008 expect to see more hot spots, and more cell phones on the market that emulate that browsing technology and wifi connections.

In addition, without solid development and marketing of this extension, consumers will continue to never hear of it. Most of those large domain purchases at Sedo were from domain investors not developers or those "end users".


Trends: More Live Auctions

Expect 2008 to be a great year for new domain companies and new live auctions. More and more domain investors are becoming disenfranchised with their current options and their is room for vast improvement.

Many of the companies who were only doing online auctions in 2007 - will be opening the doors to live auctions in 2008 because there is plenty of room for growth.

Trends: Expect more international investments

As domain investing continues to become more and more acceptable, watch as international groups (outside the US) take advantage of a weak dollar and invest in generic domain names.

The dollar continues to under perform, and its a perfect time for European investors to take advantage and start buying from US portfolio holders. Some excellent value can be purchased at a steep discount.

Illusions: The End of Parking

Domain parking is far from dead. With click fraud running rampant, and advertisers demanding better results - domaining is changing. The current model of advertisers buying visitors will continue through 2008 although expect revenue to decrease.

Domain Parking firms are learning that type in traffic is nice - but so is SE traffic. They will be working hard in 2008 to release better SEO pages and more unique content. Expect imrpoved parking this next year.


Agree? Disagree? Always want to hear your thoughts. Please share your expectations for 2008....

Thanks,
Justin

 

[sashas]

Thanks for the link Bricio.
I never knew so many were developed.
maybe they are good choices for smaller businesses. I do agree that LLL.coms have gone virtually out of reach of any but the biggest of business. Domainers won't sell to an end user for anything less than 30k - an amount that your average business owner can't afford.

But still, i don't own any L-L-L.coms, so I can't say about their demand. I just stated my opinion that I don't understand them, because honestly, I don't understand hyphenated domains. They do seem like good investments though, especially for the ones who got the premium letters. I can't see any use for the ugly lettered ones, however, since these names are primarily end user based, and very few companies have the initials XQZ.

 

[mhdoc]

I just stated my opinion that I don't understand them, because honestly, I don't understand hyphenated domains.

I don't expect anyone to EVER actually type in most of my domains. All the traffic comes from search. Search engines seem to like keyword domains and don't seem to care about hyphens or TLD. So if I want to do a site on some subject and have to take keyword-keyword-keyword.biz that's OK.

Keep in mind I work mostly with very low traffic niches. It's child's play to outrank a parked page and, while the dot com would be nice, I don't think there is enough income potential in the niche to justify paying more than registration fee for the dot com. I would rather buy 10 "Bad" domains for reg fee and get the #1 search position for all 10, then buy one "better" dot com and only rank for one.

I think the "conventional wisdom" on NamePros is based on what works with high traffic, competative, terms with lots of advertiser interest. Much of it is clearly irrelevant in other corners of the web

 

[Alex]

Illusions: L-L-L.com's will continue with large gains

The issue with L-L-L.com's is a simple one. This market exists only as speculators drum it up. Pretend your a company - If your choice was to buy an L-L-L.com domain name or keep looking - what would you do?

I dont believe any company in their right mind would spend the time to market and build a brand around that kind of domain name. They would "bleed" traffic, and eventually HAVE to buy the LLL.com (which they would have helped build additional value to).

Justin

While I am not in investor in L-L-L domains, and personally don't like hyphenated domains, I think many companies would consider this as an alternative for themselves.

I am not talking about big bucks paid for L-L-L's. No way they will reach an astronomical price. but there are too many businesses with a 3 letter acronym, who cannot afford $xx.xxx for a domain. Simple as that.

And I am very surprised that many european businesses have hyphenated domains. I talk to many so called "end users" who register their domains. And many of them prefer the hyphenated version because it separates words as they say. So the hyphenated market exists, there is no need to argue. A question is whether this market is that strong so that it will lead to buying domains in the aftermarket.

Just as a last note, I have only one L-L-L.com. It is m-z-s.com I bought it just for fun. Then I entered a google search and I found that both m-z-s.eu and m-z-s.de are developed. M-z-s.nl is taken but undeveloped, and the .org is parked. M-z-s.ru is also developed.

And doing a little research on google for mzs, will take you to
www.mzs-electronics.nl/
www.mzs-zaunbau.de/
www.mzs-recht.de/
www.mzs-swieradow.org.pl/

Four results from the first page of google. While MZS is written without hyphens all these domains have hyphens.

I currently doing some research on the European market and end user expectations. And again, I am not talking about the big corporate world, but the smaller businesses.

And again, this is a pov from somebody not involved financially in the L-L-L.com's (well if you don't take into consideration that $7)

Alex

Just did a bit more research on mzs hyphenated domains. And found some. This does not proove anything about L-L-L.com's, just that hyphenated domains are used massively in Europe.

www.mzs-vb.cz/
www.autobazar-mzs.sk/
www.mzs-tech.co.yu/
www.pso-mzs.ru/
www.buero-mzs.de/

As anyone can see, five more domains with mzs (a random three letter) and a hyphen dot European cctld.

 

[.X.]

Only the premium LLLL.coms will rise significantly, Imo, All the other LLLL.coms will be selling from domainer to domainer.

I don't think .Mobi has a future of any kind, Just my opinion though.


I think Domain Parking, As we know it right now will change, I think many companies may shut down, Those that don't, will go to a private platform, Being extremely cautious whom they let in. This is already happening, Via NameMedia companies.

I agree, More live auctions will be happening in 2008.

I also agree International Investors, Will be seeking nice domains, for investments.

L-L-L.com , No future in it, Imo, Although search engines are friendly with hypens, End User buyers are not, especially three hyphens.

 

[KingDon]

To me, when I think about LLLL’s, it seems that, what looks like trash today, could be treasure tomorrow. When I first started buying LLLL’s years ago, I was told that names like ~anaz and ~dojy and ~axza were trash, not worth a reg fee; at that time they would have fallen into your illusion category.

This is a big planet, and .com is king. As more people come onto the internet, the demand for domain names will increase. I don’t think the argument should focus on dwindling resources, I believe it’s more about world wide uses. What might seem like garbage here to an English speaking American could be gold in a foreign land; crummy letter combinations and all.

For what ever strange reason, all LLLL’s are holding their own. It’s an opportunity to buy something that could be worth a lot more, but also retains its value. I only have 45 of these LLLL’s, but they seem to have been sleeping giants; I’m glad I made the investment and moved on.

I agree with the large majority of what you posted Justin, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

alexsimon - you're on the right path.

 

[hugegrowth]

Nice to see lots of different viewpoints, it's helps make domaining more interesting. Here are a few of my thoughts for 2008:

1 - Agree with more domain auctions and more aftermarket activity. It will get easier for people visiting registrars to either reg a new name, or buy on the aftermarket. Right now many people looking for a domain just don't know all the options - I think companies have already started this but it will get bigger.

2 - Country code domains will pick up as they are a good alternative to .com if you market mainly within a specific country. Already seeing this with .de and .co.uk and the trend will continue and get bigger.

3 - Mobile use and mobile internet will keep growing and .mobi will be seen as the extension to have for a mobile website if you want to be 'cool'. I think there is enough happening to get the general public to equate mobile with .mobi, and this will be a big shocker to many domainers in 2008. Expect more .mobi development and more public awareness of the extension. Also expect more mobile text ad options and affiliate programs.

4 - Online advertising and sales will continue to grow by double digits, fueling the overall domain market. Whether there are recessions or not, 'old' media will continue losing out to the internet. More businesses and individual investors will be scrambling to get a piece of the domain market.

5 - Parking pages will look more like actual websites, with more control by the domainer over the look of the page. Expect more options like video ads and pay per action ads. This maybe in the latter half of 2008.

6 - More domainers developping their websites, and easier tools to do so.

 

[DomainLobe]

Excellent post Justin and great comments.

I think all of these predictions are valid but that many of the 'sector' (LLL.com/LLLL.com/LLL.in/L-L-L.com) valuations fluctuate based on investor psychology.
Volatility is Human & "Greed>Hope>Fear" cycles are predictable.
Remember that, unless there is a catastrophic alteration in the internet/domain name universe, all ships will continue to rise albeit at different rates and times.
When we discuss these type of 'limited resources' values will rise with demand.
Thanks again for the thought provoking thread.

 

[Nattydomain]

In particular, I totally agree with you on the above point. I also can't see much gains in value in those LLLL.com full of crap letters in them like qzxq.com. That's why I didn't waste my money buying any of them when they were the only ones left even though people were snapping them up.

I disagree: Reason beign is we dont know what is out there. Mainly LLLL.com has its purpose for a few things. Short 1 word words, Acronymns, or brandable easy to say made up words.

When you say that names like QZXQ are crap well that may be to someone only looking at the most obvious reason behind buying the domain (speaking as a domainer) but to a Company somwhere around the globe THIS is their business name ready to be sold.

I bought good and bad LLLL.com's to hold for a while. I mean lets be honest what does 7QX.com mean? Or 7y2.com mean? Or H4X.com mean? But yet everyday they get sold for a min of $150 and up....Dont ever underestimate what someone else thinks of the name that may fit THEIR own business purpose.

So with that said I would buy any and ALL LLLL.com I think is fair to hold. The worst thing that could happen in 2-3 years time is no offers were made but you could still resell to get your original money back. :imho:

 

[Spade]

So with that said I would buy any and ALL LLLL.com I think is fair to hold. The worst thing that could happen in 2-3 years time is no offers were made but you could still resell to get your original money back. :imho:

My point was more along the lines that LLLL.com's with poor lettings are bad investments, not necessarily total losses. The issue here has more to do with return on investment. I believe that with a premium domain purchase, you'll see a substantially better return.

Investing money which has a a good chance to see no gain in 3 years is simply not an appropriate business strategy. Premium LLLL.com's can still be had a reasonable prices (if you hunt for them) and I think thats part of the issue. Spend a little extra time and bargain shop for the right domain names and your ROI will be substancially more.

Justin

 

[buckshotdots]

L-L-L.com , No future in it, Imo, Although search engines are friendly with hypens, End User buyers are not, especially three hyphens.

With 25% developed and LLL's having such a huge price tag I totally disagree (the future is already happening) with L-L-L's not having a future. Plus in my short time holding L-L-L's I already have one sale of XXXX to a major world bank.

The L-L-L thread here at namepros is a wealth of knowledge. Listing developed sites, past sales etc etc. Everyone should check it out.

Thanks, Gary.

 

[cache]

Just want to know whether other people here would agree that typo parking is not
going to well in the future?

 

[jacal1]

illusion: domain leasing (sounds loike a great idea, unlikely in practice)

trend: .info for truly informative names that people want info about and are commercial products or services

trend: Namepros will finally rename itself LLLLpros :hehe:

 

[doggyowner]

I see CVCV.'s and clearly pronounceable LLLL's doing well for a long time!

Watch out for the Sleeper........ .org! I let My Secret out, but this extension is already well known to people, and they get the warm and fuzzy feeling from the extension. I am seeing more companies using the extension for business reasons and not just for organizations! Mainly One Word .org's will do very well. Some strong two worder's will some damage as well. I have been investing for sometime now, so we will see. I have a gut feeling about this one, and the fact about people Knowing the ext, and the Safety feeling people already have is a Huge Plus!

Agree with the oneword orgs Yofie, with an org you know its "quality". I also think infos, especially oneword, will get more recognition and get stronger over time.

 

[Pound]

Watch out for the Sleeper........ .org! I let My Secret out, but this extension is already well known to people, and they get the warm and fuzzy feeling from the extension. I am seeing more companies using the extension for business reasons and not just for organizations! Mainly One Word .org's will do very well. Some strong two worder's will some damage as well. I have been investing for sometime now, so we will see. I have a gut feeling about this one, and the fact about people Knowing the ext, and the Safety feeling people already have is a Huge Plus!

Totally agree as well. .ORG is ridiculously undervalued in the reseller market at the moment (in my opinion) and things can really only go up within the next 12 months.

 

[filter]

I try not to stick my neck out too far with predictions, though maybe safe to say that the "anti-premium" LLLL.com will continue to be under-valued in 2008 (only question is whether they will be "permanently" under-valued, in which case they will have been accurately valued, so nevermind! Still comfortable with my estimate of 50/50 chance that prices will exceed $40 for XJVQ.com etc by the end of next year, supporting a minimum price of $20 by April 1st of 2008.)

 

[DnEbook]

illusion ....... my names are good ....... trend .tv continues upwards

 

[hugegrowth]

It's starting now, but in 2008 the 'dash' or 'hyphen' will be more embraced by domainers and end users, simply because they are a good alternative in a world where premium domains are becoming scarcer every day.

 

[InvisionTech]

Any future for .Pro domains? :D

 

[Alex]

It's starting now, but in 2008 the 'dash' or 'hyphen' will be more embraced by domainers and end users, simply because they are a good alternative in a world where premium domains are becoming scarcer every day.

Very good point. They are getting accepted by end users already. Don't know if 2008 will be a boom for hyphens or later, but I definitely see them getting more popular.

 

[snoop]

Predictions,

-Parking to remain largely stagnant for another year.
-3 letter .com to hit 10k minimum value by the end of 2008.
-12 or more million dollar sales reported for the year.
-Another "annus horribilis" for .tv buyers despite likely increased usage of the ext by media co's, increased usage won’t translate into increased profits due to high reg fees, large losses for many premium names buyers as many of the demand media premium landrush names get dropped.
-Another year of below average gains for .info and .biz. .info to perform better than .biz though once again.
-.mobi to see continuing high prices, though without seeing any real rises (ie stagnant prices/underperforming of market) might be a couple of years before the market as a whole realises the name is a dud in terms of end-user usage.
-Market generally to rise by a good %, but not as big a % as years gone by.
-Big potential wildcard a US reccession which could be a major drag on the market. (not sure how likely this is and just how much of an effect it could have on the domain market)