.tv Thoughts and personal views needed about existing premiums .tv domains

[Makis.TV]

Its time to have a dedicated topic for this special matter.
Many of us registered .tv's with premium prices before the resent landrush, that leave us in an uncertain position because we don't know any of the following critical data:

1. Will they leave old premium prices as before, charging premium reg fee per yr?
2a. Will they offer us a buyout and if so how much will it be? Recent Landrush shows that many .tv's characterised as premiums before with mid $$$$ reg fee per yr, had a discounted reg fee during the landrush period, for example munich.tv from $5000 per yr dropped to $319 one time with name.com(Samit beat me over this :kickass
2b. If buyout is the case then when will this happen, since many of us have premiums expiring over a wide period of time, any delay will mean additional costs or even dropped domains and negative publicity(at least).
3a. Will they let us renew domains in normal reg fees since most of us paid already lots in renewals
3b. Like 2.a if this is the case then when will this be applied?

There is already open a conversation at watch.tv blog with Chris Sheridan from eno.com, take a look for yourself and why not add you comment too:
.tv Premium Announcement « Watch.tv Blog

- What do you think its more fair from this options?
- What do you think Verisign will finally decide?
- What will be your actions if Verisign leaves premium fees per yr or ask you for a buyout?

I d love to see your thoughts and personal views over this case, I d also love to see Jeff replying on subject as well.

 

[antonis12]

This isn't a point I've ever made. I've been saying for years these names make no sense for domainers. Never said endusers don't own premium names.


What matters is Verisigns total revenue from enduers on premiums. Personally I doubt it is peanuts.

Well, collectively, this group here has probably done 100 whois lookups on every possible good .tv domain.

What are these high renewal fee premiums that are in use by end-users?

Most of the high renewal premiums I have seen have been regged by domaineers.

(There are .tvs in use by large end-users but they are generally low renewal fee, perhaps because VSGN was trying to induce them to use .tv)

 

[snoop]

What are these high renewal fee premiums that are in use by end-users?

Most of the high renewal premiums I have seen have been regged by domaineers.

(There are .tvs in use by large end-users but they are generally low renewal fee, perhaps because VSGN was trying to induce them to use .tv)

Perhaps reread what I said, I did not claim anything about "high" premium renewals and endusers. I said if they don't convert premium names enduser are likely to keep renewing. So to convert it will be a revenue stream lost.

Your argument is that endusers tend not to have built on more expensive premiums but that doesn't say anything about the actual revenue stream Verisign would losing if they converted those endusers. If it is alot of $100-$500 renewals that is still 5-25 times what they would be getting if it were $20. I have no idea what the revenue stream is but my guess is it would be significant.

 

[antonis12]

Perhaps reread what I said, I did not claim anything about "high" premium renewals and endusers. I said if they don't convert premium names enduser are likely to keep renewing. So to convert it will be a revenue stream lost.

Your argument is that endusers tend not to have built on more expensive premiums but that doesn't say anything about the actual revenue stream Verisign would losing if they converted those endusers. If it is alot of $100-$500 renewals that is still 5-25 times what they would be getting if it were $20. I have no idea what the revenue stream is but my guess is it would be significant.

No, I get the point that you need to multiply by the number of premiums in use, but if it is correct that .tv has regged 1M regular fee domains, then unless the premiums are at high rates, they can't be a big part of the revenue stream.

I don't think there are more than a few thousand premiums that have been regged, of which a fraction are developed sites that have no choice but to renew.

I could be totally wrong here, but for a while a couple of years ago I used to monitor the daily new premium regs, and it would be measured in a few domains per week, not 100 domains per week so it would not shock me if in a 3-5 year period they regged 3,000 to 7,000 premiums, not 50,000 to 100,000.

Let's figure their wholesale price for regular registrations is $15. If there really are a million regs as someone mentioned (again, I would love to see that figured sourced), then they have $15M annual revenue from reg fee domains.

Let's say that there are even 2,000 developed sites on premiums (I highly doubt it). If the average renewal fee is $250, that is $625,000 per year in annual revenue. Meaningful, but if you are really trying to reinvent the TLD, could you put at risk 4% of your renewal income? Yeah, I think so.

Now, if the average developed premium site has a renewal fee of $5K to $10K, that is a different story.

NOTE-PROCEED WITH CAUTION. I am somewhat pulling numbers out of the sky, but I think i am in the right ballpark.

 

[snoop]

Let's say that there are even 2,000 developed sites on premiums (I highly doubt it). If the average renewal fee is $250, that is $625,000 per year in annual revenue. Meaningful, but if you are really trying to reinvent the TLD, could you put at risk 4% of your renewal income? Yeah, I think so.

Now, if the average developed premium site has a renewal fee of $5K to $10K, that is a different story.

NOTE-PROCEED WITH CAUTION. I am somewhat pulling numbers out of the sky, but I think i am in the right ballpark.

The numbers make sense to me. Not sure about the 1million reges though. If I remember previous discussion it seemed like 600k or something like that.

I'm not sure Verisign will just give up that revenue stream even if it was "only" $625k/yr.

 

[antonis12]

The numbers make sense to me. Not sure about the 1million reges though. If I remember previous discussion it seemed like 600k or something like that.

I'm not sure Verisign will just give up that revenue stream even if it was "only" $625k/yr.

Sure, fair enough. Though I think 2,000 x 250 is a generous estimate of 'developed premium .tv sites'

If I had to guess realistically, not conservatively, the real number is close to 500.

My guess is VSGN is hoping the non-developed guys hold on in the current model because they do have a decent revenue stream there; I doubt that happens...

 

[Makis.TV]

Snoop, we are all trying to predict verisign's policy and plans therefore I m going to remind you that these last 4-5 days they changed their policy.
Premiums were released as one time fee, if they liked what they were making from the current premium fees then I dont believe this change would ever have taken place.
Same can happen for existing premiums, maybe they chose to make money from more .tv's registered than a few premiums that each yr that passes get fewer and fewer.

ps: plz excuse my English, I m not a native english speaker/writer

 

[snoop]

Premiums were released as one time fee, if they liked what they were making from the current premium fees then I dont believe this change would ever have taken place.

The difference is they were making nothing from those names they released. Of course some would have been regged over time though it seems that was very sluggish at the old rates. The names already registered though is a very different scenario.

 

[Makis.TV]

They could make something by putting $500 price tag instead of $10000
I think is a holistic approach and not just for the new ones.
If not the old ones will drop and register as normal reg fees eventually.
Either way old pricing will fade away in 95% of total premiums domains registered.

 

[antonis12]

They could make something by putting $500 price tag instead of $10000
I think is a holistic approach and not just for the new ones.
If not the old ones will drop and register as normal reg fees eventually.
Either way old pricing will fade away in 95% of total premiums domains registered.

The old pricing system is, for all intents and purposes, dead. VSGN might or might not realize it yet, but it is over.

We will look at it more mathematically and comprehensively later this week. But trust me, whether VSGN makes a change or not, it is done. You now have clear market prices for erstwhile 'premiums' and the SEDO auction will reveal the market price for the handful of super-premiums and VSGN's new model for premiums allows the market price to reveal itself on an ongoing basis. If they are smart, they will accept it and get the advantage of finally having a clear pricing model which will easily pay for itself in general TLD improvement. Otherwise, it will just happen bit by bit.

I *think* I spend more annually on premium renewals than anyone on this board. (if not, I must be right at the top based on what I know about the portfolios of others). I am as bullish on .tv as anyone has ever been and I am more bullish today than I was yesterday.

But in this world, there are parts of my portfolio that no longer make any sense as the most cost-effective way to compete in .tv.

I don't see how the calculus will be any different for anyone else. The only difference would be: (1) developed sites on (2) high renewal premiums. But my hypothesis is that set of sites does not exist in a meaningful way.

 

[snoop]

The old pricing system is, for all intents and purposes, dead. VSGN might or might not realize it yet, but it is over.

We will look at it more mathematically and comprehensively later this week. But trust me, whether VSGN makes a change or not, it is done. You now have clear market prices for erstwhile 'premiums' and the SEDO auction will reveal the market price for the handful of super-premiums and VSGN's new model for premiums allows the market price to reveal itself on an ongoing basis. If they are smart, they will accept it and get the advantage of finally having a clear pricing model which will easily pay for itself in general TLD improvement. Otherwise, it will just happen bit by bit.

I *think* I spend more annually on premium renewals than anyone on this board. (if not, I must be right at the top based on what I know about the portfolios of others). I am as bullish on .tv as anyone has ever been and I am more bullish today than I was yesterday.

Good post. I agree that it is dead no matter what move Verisign makes. Either names will be converted or domainers will drop them, good outcome for the overall market either way. (ignoring endusers of course in relation to drops)

But in this world, there are parts of my portfolio that no longer make any sense as the most cost-effective way to compete in .tv.

I don't see how the calculus will be any different for anyone else.

Very realistic and I think most domainers will see it the same way.