The LLLL.org countdown

[vlad74]

On Nov. 02, 2007 all LLLL.com were bought out.

On Feb. 05, 2008 all premium LLLL.net were bough out.

Its time to start LLLL.org countdown.

 

[rocky123]

Does non -chip LLLL.org will hold some value? Prices for non -chip LLLL.net is not moving at all.

 

[Recons.Com]

that is for you to decide.
Again, beyond the non-chip, there are also western quadprems.
how are LLLL.net quadprems doing?

 

[rocky123]

Not good.Rate of rise of price is slow.

 

[Recons.Com]

Are there any left?

edited: checked random 2000 quadprem, nothing. So what are they trading for now?

Even if they trade at $20, you should not complain ) Doubled the investment in a month or so )

 

[djum]

how are LLLL.net quadprems doing?

About $30 at Chinese auctions and obviously nothing left.

 

[Recons.Com]

Well, that is great. Triple of investment. So chinese auctions also don't mind western quadprems?

 

[Dominium]

Another 772 available Western Premium 4l.orgs

 

[main]

The original post is in this thread is from 2008. That's quite a long countdown!

 

[Andrei P.]

About $30 at Chinese auctions and obviously nothing left.

This is not enough. If there will be no significant price increase (I think we will not see) then we will see massive drop of non-chip llll.nets in a year. Unless new level of frenzy on China markets happen

 

[Recons.Com]

Why do you need significant increase from $30 not to drop? Even with +10$, you sell 1/4 of your holdings, if you have to, to renew the remaining 3/4. That is assuming you don't monetize your traffic at all.

 

[djum]

This is not enough. If there will be no significant price increase (I think we will not see) then we will see massive drop of non-chip llll.nets in a year. Unless new level of frenzy on China markets happen

This is in 2 weeks.
Price went from regfee to $30 and volume from 20-30 a day to:

11-08 304
11-09 103
11-10 274
11-11 235
11-12 651
11-13 737
11-14 2819
11-15 2696
11-16 1243
11-17 456

With net Chips market wasn't moving that fast, may be because total amount of money spent was 1-1,5 mln yuan daily. Then it moved to 3mln. And lately to 20 mln. per day. It's enough money to cover all types of domains and more money will be moving in. I'm not surprised if we see 100 mln. per day volume by January.

Price of non-chip .net will go to $50-100 that's my opinion. If someone want's to drop at that level, ow well, I'll backorder.

 

[Andrei P.]

Why do you need significant increase from $30 not to drop? Even with +10$, you sell 1/4 of your holdings, if you have to, to renew the remaining 3/4. That is assuming you don't monetize your traffic at all.

Demand/supply if you sell 1/4 of your holdings... let me guess all large llll.net owners will be selling their llll.net holdings there will be unprecedental supply of crappy llll.nets. These are hot potatoes. Lowest end of the market. Once there will be large supply of crappy llll.nets their price will be down to about 1$. What is the sence to renew 1$ domains? ))))

We already saw this with too-early LLLL.com buyout, when after reaching 60$ minimum price in a year worst of them didn't cost a regfee. You could buy them for 1-5$. From 60$ to regfee! They were easily intercepted after drop. Some of them existed several hours LOL.

30$ for qkvu.net? It's not enough for survival. They become hot. They will be hotter hotter potatoes the closer they are to renewal time. It would be wise to quickly flip them at current prices with discount. I would do this.

 

[djum]

Look at this volume!

Date Volume Money Spent

2015-11-17 47383 14,441,032
2015-11-16 67070 22,443,902
2015-11-15 54413 22,348,325
2015-11-14 40045 21,876,113
2015-11-13 24075 12,560,337
2015-11-12 32748 11,928,611
2015-11-11 10774 8,402,891
2015-11-10 9963 8,100,855
2015-11-09 14310 5,377,225
2015-11-08 12227 5,182,405

More and more people in China hear cool stories about domainers making big money trading digital assets and joining the market too. They need more domains to trade, old categories is not enough already and they buy more, even TLDs that wasn't popular before like .org.

 

[Andrei P.]

Look at this volume!

Date Volume Money Spent

2015-11-17 47383 14,441,032
2015-11-16 67070 22,443,902
2015-11-15 54413 22,348,325
2015-11-14 40045 21,876,113
2015-11-13 24075 12,560,337
2015-11-12 32748 11,928,611
2015-11-11 10774 8,402,891
2015-11-10 9963 8,100,855
2015-11-09 14310 5,377,225
2015-11-08 12227 5,182,405

More and more people in China hear cool stories about domainers making big money trading digital assets and joining the market too. They need more domains to trade, old categories is not enough already and they buy more, even TLDs that wasn't popular before like .org.

Sooner or later new money inflow will be not enough to support large package sales. Remember soon 5L buyout will be. And it requires more money than 4L.net and 4L.org Good niches will survive, bad - will be dropped. End user sales don't produce needed money. It is pure speculation. Only chips will survive

 

[djum]

Demand/supply if you sell 1/4 of your holdings... let me guess all large llll.net owners will be selling their llll.net holdings there will be unprecedental supply of crappy llll.nets. These are hot potatoes. Lowest end of the market. Once there will be large supply of crappy llll.nets their price will be down to about 1$. What is the sence to renew 1$ domains? ))))

We already saw this with too-early LLLL.com buyout, when after reaching 60$ minimum price in a year worst of them didn't cost a regfee. You could buy them for 1-5$. From 60$ to regfee! They were easily intercepted after drop. Some of them existed several hours LOL.

30$ for qkvu.net? It's not enough for survival. They become hot. They will be hotter hotter potatoes the closer they are to renewal time. It would be wise to quickly flip them at current prices with discount. I would do this.

I bet you they selling already, but here's one little thing.
It won't affect our market in the West whatsoever. Because out of last 145000 .nets between 125000 - 130000 was registered by Chinese and not available for us anymore. All this domains are in China, at Ename, HangZhou, BizCn, etc. People who were buying I dunno, if they are individuals or big companies, but they had at least 1000 domains in posession. Some had 5-6K.

And one guy from New York, who bought at least 5000 at GD promo have 72000 domains now. He's probably the biggest investor in the West. I don't think any of them big investors will be dropping, at price level of $30 where we at or if it moves to $50-100. If they had $30000 to buy them in first place, they will find the same money to pay renewal.

 

[Andrei P.]

We are already in Chinese market. So it is not important who will face huge renewals in 1 year. Unless they are ready to increase investments more and more in progression some niches will collaps IMO. Are they ready in increase investments in progression? I don't know. If I new I would take a credit in a bank and would invest in each and every niche )))

 

[djum]

Sooner or later new money inflow will be not enough to support large package sales. Remember soon 5L buyout will be. And it requires more money than 4L.net and 4L.org Good niches will survive, bad - will be dropped. End user sales don't produce needed money. It is pure speculation. Only chips will survive

5L is not the only buyout that's happening right now. At least 5-6 more going on. It just different people buying different domains. End-users are not relevant anymore, they don't control market, or influence it more than 5-10%.
I sold net Chip to end-user for $300 in September. Right now the reseller price on the Chinese auctions is $450. If you buy chips at $400, like many domainers here do, what will you quote to end-user? 3-5K, right. That's for .net
And buyin .com chips for 2-2.5K makes end-user quote closer to 15-20K.
Will they buy at this level? Very unlikely. That's why end-users out of game now, it's resellers market.

 

[djum]

If I new I would take a credit in a bank and would invest in each and every niche )))

Not the worst idea, looking in reversal, but needed to be done in March.
Then buy whatever you can for $150-300 and sell now. Then go shop for private island

 

[Recons.Com]

qkvu.net is neither CP, nor quadpremium.

Only 214960 domains are either CP or QP or both.
242016 are neither.

Quite possibly CP/QP half is with end users and/or small holders who have them for future use and don't care about renewals.

So actual pool is around 100K. With the same logic, 300K only accross .com, .net, .org field.

 

[djum]

If you trying to calculate pool of names available to end-users I would suggest, run Whois check and deduct all the names residing at Chinese registrars, because they are not going back to Western end-users. Ever. Unless someone will be ready to pay 3-5K for LLLL.net and 15-25K for LLLL.com.
Either or this situation is very favourable for us, domainers. The rest of the shrinked now market after Chinese invasion will shoot to the moon.
If they don't like to buy LLLL.net for couple K from you, send them to Mr.Li who sells for 25K

 

[Recons.Com]

I don't want to speculate on Chinese psychology, etc.
I just roughly estimate the available pool to get an idea. Plus/minus 30% is not important for this.

 

[djum]

I don't want to speculate on Chinese psychology, etc.
I just roughly estimate the available pool to get an idea. Plus/minus 30% is not important for this.

Don't speculate, run experiment. Try to buy 10-20 LLLL.nets or .coms that owned by Chinese, try to contact them by whois email or at Ename. And you'll see what happens, what price you'll be offered if get any response at all.

 

[Recons.Com]

Djum, if the bottom of the floor were to come off, their attitude would change. Hence I don't factor in their attitude during hype.

In Norway houses are sold via bidding. They show it to buyers on one day and take bids during next 24 hours with sales happening higher than quoted. Well, guess what, when the crisis happened few years ago, everything changed, no more arrogant sellers, ready to show you house at any day etc.

 

[pablohc86]

today godaddy org chips ending price
+ reg fee (+ vat for the unlicky like me)


tmrw.org $245 (28 Offerte)
xtty.org $160 (31 Offerte)
tqlc.org $51 (9 Offerte)
zmtw.org $46 (9 Offerte)
pslg.org $51 (10 Offerte)
dmtp.org $84 (13 Offerte)
lpqc.org $76 (16 Offerte)
jdgf.org $70 (12 Offerte)
tmlg.org $48 (8 Offerte)
qfrj.org $48 (9 Offerte)
tgfd.org $92 (14 Offerte)

 

[Andrei P.]

today godaddy org chips ending price
+ reg fee (+ vat for the unlicky like me)


tmrw.org $245 (28 Offerte)
xtty.org $160 (31 Offerte)
tqlc.org $51 (9 Offerte)
zmtw.org $46 (9 Offerte)
pslg.org $51 (10 Offerte)
dmtp.org $84 (13 Offerte)
lpqc.org $76 (16 Offerte)
jdgf.org $70 (12 Offerte)
tmlg.org $48 (8 Offerte)
qfrj.org $48 (9 Offerte)
tgfd.org $92 (14 Offerte)

I wish I could have a time machine then I could have Nissan GTR...