Recent NamePros sales vs Appraisals

[estibot.com]

Hi All,

I entered a number of names from the "recent sales" thread into my automated appraisal system. Here are the results, which are quite interesting.

I'm working on setting this system up on my website for all to use for free, and to make this tool as useful as possible I would greatly appreciate your input/advice/comments.

Take a look at the list below and see what you think. There are some instances where there is a clear discrepancy between the appraisal and the sale price - do you think the appraisal is wrong, or did the owner sell the domain name at the wrong price??

All the names are dotcom unless otherwise stated. The first number is the estimated value, the second number is the actual sale price as reported.

I've added my own comments here

domain appraisal reported sale price
qusa $1 049 $4 500
gomainstream $1 726 $1 200
04z $977 $125
maxzine $133 $800
encentra $848 $5 000
dayjob.mobi $35 $600 ---nice sale! my system does not like .mobi too much
jebbe $319 $150
usdrunk $564 $200
www.bo $4 030 $6 200
paylesssofts $3 $499 --- really nice sale
mondaynfl $229 $150
channel10.tv $608 $900
pettube $431 $3 500 -- nice end user sale!
ascensionisland.org$238 $100
thebankersexchange$71 $600
avid.org $3 410 $13 500 -- system underestimates a bit IMO
hairlosscare $250 $250 --
thehill.tv $10 182 $4 000 --system maybe overestimates a bit
0-6 $1 127 $5 000 --- nice sale
justfatties $44 $100
7o.net $533 $1 000
iphone.cc $1 300 $315 -- sold below real value IMO
termlending $1 161 $52 -- system overestimates? maybe $xxx
grillzlyric $101 $12
opti.us $275 $160
tricks.net $7 016 $4 000
xxxchannel.tv $2 $165 -- system undervalues a bit IMO
god.nu $2 918 $530 -- sold at below real value IMO
forumburst $64 $14
radmo $337 $50 -- brandable - could have sold higher for enduser
islandowner $413 low-mid xxx --would be interesting to know the exact sale price
missionspam $28 $2 -- sold below real value
doublebenefit $917 $1 500
1os.org $216 $100
ngpv $105 $250
luxcraft $53 $120
efft $1 001 $250
mxba $390 $500
madbytes $11 $250 -- nice sale
keot $471 $250
gvdg $316 $250
fxfi $100 $250
surefile $76 $184
lpjn $171 $63
ekjn $81 $20
b7t.net $56 $79
webcampage $1 055 $36 -- sold at below real value IMO
luckyedge $117 $45
shewon $3 157 $45 -- system looks at end user potential more here
kjbp $719 $78
wikipal $252 $104
superbuyers $119 $40 -- sold below real value
profitabledeals $296 $60 -- ditto
vendorreviews $814 $24 -- ditto
stylegel $0 $20
wholesalekit $102 $100
nationalprotest $576 $21 -- system overvalues a bit IMO
polishplanet $82 $150
isex.tv $47 $1 650 -- system undervalues somewhat. brandable.
fo3.net $81 $200
pix.cc $371 $80 -- sold at less than real value
ruby.sc $1 024 $30 -- sold below real value. system does not punish for extension enough though

The system is still in development, but the appraisal method/formula will probably not change much. It's statistically so good that in fact I don't think it's possible to create a much better automated appraisal system. I can still work on extensions, numbers and hyphens. I'd be interested to hear your opinions.

Thanks!
Josh

 

[mktgmark]

I wish you luck with your system but I've never yet seen an automated appraisal that works. For that matter, I don't hold appraisals done by some of these appraisal sites online in high regard either. There are really only two appraisals that matter to me, what do I think it's worth... and what does the buyer think it's worth.

As I said, good luck with your system.
-Mark

 

[estibot.com]

Thanks for your comments Mark. I do know that there are severe limitations to any appraisal system, especially automated systems, but, as you said, human appraisals are far from perfect, too. My aim is to develop the best possible automated system. With proper human interpretation, I believe my system will provide value to its users. Once I go online with it, it will be available for use free of charge.

At this point I am open to suggestions - how can I make this even better? - and would very much appreciate more comments.

Food for thought, here are some of the most valuable domains as appraised by my system. I have optimized the system to be as accurate as possible at the low-mid price range, as this will probably be the area of interest of most domainers. As a result, the accuracy at the top-end price range has suffered a bit. Still, considering that the system needs to handle a huge range of 0 to $15,000,000 and above, the overall accuracy is satisfying.

first number is appraisal, second number is reported sales price

sex $16,190,174 $14,000,000
diamond $464,059 $7,500,000 -system lacks understanding of the value of the keyword and the huge value of the industry
vodka $55,453 $3,000,000 - this was a massive end-user sale - I would personally have put this domain in the $xxx,xxx range. System underestimates a bit. Buyer is a bit of a sucker - not using the website to its full potential, either
cameras $1,366,311 $1,500,000 - pretty much spot on. probably not an end-user sale. end user would have paid more probably.
topix $23,432 $1,000,000 - system knows it's a valuable name, but cannot predict such a huge end-user sale
on $337,343 $635,000
macau $54,726 $550,000 - huge sale price. system lacks understanding of emerging travel market
antispyware $34,677 $550,000 - higher than expected sale price IMO
shemale $573,957 $520,000
blue $325,165 $500,000
bike $362,908 $500,000
wrestling $407,221 $500,000
gays $1,278,083 $500,000 - maybe sold at too low a price?
templates $110,953 $450,000 -- let's hope they can turn a profit...or maybe they have no money left for development
wirelessphone $13,873 $355,000 - domain is not that great, IMO system is on right track. overpriced.
fungames $67,547 $350,000 - I wouldn't have expected such a huge sale price
jasmin $31,666 $310,250 - again huge end user sale
cafe $431,040 $300,000
brown $129,195 $300,000
cd $427,366 $277,750 - valuable name, but maybe value will come down somewhat when CD becomes obsolete media....not sure if a good reseller investment at this price. I think system overestimates slightly
pos $106,263 $252,500