Verisign is increasing prices of domains for the next few years. There is no new news in that. However I was trying to predict costs / revenues out past 2012 for our own domains. However, I have no idea what to expect past 2012. Can anyone help shed light and or speculate? If prices go up, our strategies should change. If prices go down – that is a different story as well. But to me, there isn’t even the slightest indication if prices will continue to go up, or possibly fall sharply.
It’s almost written in stone that the costs of .com domains will go up by 7% a year for the next few years. However, I have a hard time believing Verisign could be granted price increases beyond that time. Lets be realistic – technology, computers, web hosting, servers, bandwidth and the Internet as a whole has all gotten MUCH CHEAPER in the past 5 years, not more expensive! These things will continue to get cheaper as well in the next 5 years. I can’t believe that there would not be a huge push for a bid to operate the .com registry! I can hardly believe it would not be done by many large companies for only $2.00 to $4.00 per domain per year!!!! I would not be shocked if the right company could not make it all happen for less than $1.00 per domain per year!!!!! $1 per .com domain per year will shortly mean $100 MILLION dollars a year to operate the .com registry! You honestly telling me a hundred different companies can’t make it happen for $100 million dollars a year? We have ONE very cheap $1000 server that gives us instant access to the entire .com / .net domain database, lets us pull records to and fro in sub-millisecond timing. (We’re talking bulk queries of 10,000 domains in less than 100 milliseconds) This is on one measly 1u rackmount server. Give me $100 million (which again is $1 per domain per year when we hit 100 million .com domains) and I’ll make it happen. That’s enough to pay for ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND servers ALONE at TODAYS price. This is near Google size from the guaranteed revenues from just ONE YEAR, at $1 per domain per year. Upfront the cash for the 2nd year – and you have the manpower to connect all of those servers and make it happen! (or only use 50,000 servers which should be more than plentiful, then pay 250 extremely brilliant engineers $200,000 a year to make the software work!) Though I expect in 2013 you can get 100,000 servers that are all more than twice as powerful for half the price. So you are talking in the range of 200,000 of “today”s servers, and 250 extremely talented people powering the software, hardware, networking, bandwidth, backups, security, etc. All in just the first year of operation. I’m inclined to think it could all happen for $0.25 per domain per year. Or, just do one year at $6.42 and you are looking at $642 million the first year which is plenty to power 10 times what is needed. That will easily pay for your infrastructure, then drop prices down to $1.00 per year following that!
I would hope in the next few years big domain owners band together to push for Verisign to be forced to bid to operate the .com registry – if that’s even possible. In my mind their profits right now seem pure gluttonous. Imagine 50 companies that each owns over 100,000 domains (pure guess)! If these domain companies can work together to get prices dropped in 2012 from $8.42 to even $4.00 the following year – that means almost a half a million in savings a year PER company! That is some serious motivation when you multiply that out over 5 years – these companies could each save $2.5 million by having $4.00 .com domain registrations for the following 5 years. Which loosly translates to $2.5 million MORE profit for those companies over 5 years.
Now, I’ve heard something about Versign possibly having control of .com forever? I can’t speak much to that but am very interested in more information and discussion on this. I know far less when it comes to the details on how Verisign / ICANN works and the deals currently in place for operating the .com registry.
Please share your thoughts and insight. Will Verisign be given exclusive rights to operate .com forever? Will prices increase past 2012? Or could it be possible that Verisign is forced to give .com up to someone that can make it happen at a much more realistic rate? I mostly ask because this does change our direction today as domainers. If prices on .com domains will be over $10.00 per year soon, our direction must adapt a little bit to plan for the future. If prices could go DOWN due to an open bid for operating the .com registry – we’re more likely to get more aggressive and buy even more domains today!
Finally – I would hope people would start thinking and discussing this NOW. If a change were possible and ever to happen, you can’t just in 2012 make it happen overnight. It would take a lot of careful planning to transition and build the systems at least a few years in advance before the actual transition. Maybe I’m a dreamer hoping for lower domain costs, but I think it is more than feasible to expect a registry to offer sub $1.00 .com registrations. Especially at the volume the .com registry has today. I’ve never worked inside Verisign, nor know exactly how they work or operate. So don’t take my thoughts as fact. All speculation and thoughts.
It’s almost written in stone that the costs of .com domains will go up by 7% a year for the next few years. However, I have a hard time believing Verisign could be granted price increases beyond that time. Lets be realistic – technology, computers, web hosting, servers, bandwidth and the Internet as a whole has all gotten MUCH CHEAPER in the past 5 years, not more expensive! These things will continue to get cheaper as well in the next 5 years. I can’t believe that there would not be a huge push for a bid to operate the .com registry! I can hardly believe it would not be done by many large companies for only $2.00 to $4.00 per domain per year!!!! I would not be shocked if the right company could not make it all happen for less than $1.00 per domain per year!!!!! $1 per .com domain per year will shortly mean $100 MILLION dollars a year to operate the .com registry! You honestly telling me a hundred different companies can’t make it happen for $100 million dollars a year? We have ONE very cheap $1000 server that gives us instant access to the entire .com / .net domain database, lets us pull records to and fro in sub-millisecond timing. (We’re talking bulk queries of 10,000 domains in less than 100 milliseconds) This is on one measly 1u rackmount server. Give me $100 million (which again is $1 per domain per year when we hit 100 million .com domains) and I’ll make it happen. That’s enough to pay for ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND servers ALONE at TODAYS price. This is near Google size from the guaranteed revenues from just ONE YEAR, at $1 per domain per year. Upfront the cash for the 2nd year – and you have the manpower to connect all of those servers and make it happen! (or only use 50,000 servers which should be more than plentiful, then pay 250 extremely brilliant engineers $200,000 a year to make the software work!) Though I expect in 2013 you can get 100,000 servers that are all more than twice as powerful for half the price. So you are talking in the range of 200,000 of “today”s servers, and 250 extremely talented people powering the software, hardware, networking, bandwidth, backups, security, etc. All in just the first year of operation. I’m inclined to think it could all happen for $0.25 per domain per year. Or, just do one year at $6.42 and you are looking at $642 million the first year which is plenty to power 10 times what is needed. That will easily pay for your infrastructure, then drop prices down to $1.00 per year following that!
I would hope in the next few years big domain owners band together to push for Verisign to be forced to bid to operate the .com registry – if that’s even possible. In my mind their profits right now seem pure gluttonous. Imagine 50 companies that each owns over 100,000 domains (pure guess)! If these domain companies can work together to get prices dropped in 2012 from $8.42 to even $4.00 the following year – that means almost a half a million in savings a year PER company! That is some serious motivation when you multiply that out over 5 years – these companies could each save $2.5 million by having $4.00 .com domain registrations for the following 5 years. Which loosly translates to $2.5 million MORE profit for those companies over 5 years.
Now, I’ve heard something about Versign possibly having control of .com forever? I can’t speak much to that but am very interested in more information and discussion on this. I know far less when it comes to the details on how Verisign / ICANN works and the deals currently in place for operating the .com registry.
Please share your thoughts and insight. Will Verisign be given exclusive rights to operate .com forever? Will prices increase past 2012? Or could it be possible that Verisign is forced to give .com up to someone that can make it happen at a much more realistic rate? I mostly ask because this does change our direction today as domainers. If prices on .com domains will be over $10.00 per year soon, our direction must adapt a little bit to plan for the future. If prices could go DOWN due to an open bid for operating the .com registry – we’re more likely to get more aggressive and buy even more domains today!
Finally – I would hope people would start thinking and discussing this NOW. If a change were possible and ever to happen, you can’t just in 2012 make it happen overnight. It would take a lot of careful planning to transition and build the systems at least a few years in advance before the actual transition. Maybe I’m a dreamer hoping for lower domain costs, but I think it is more than feasible to expect a registry to offer sub $1.00 .com registrations. Especially at the volume the .com registry has today. I’ve never worked inside Verisign, nor know exactly how they work or operate. So don’t take my thoughts as fact. All speculation and thoughts.
