NameSilo

Misinterpreting Data, Twisting Facts & Baseless Conclusions

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"Made-up" domain sales are heating up.

I have been picking up on a recent sales trend that I'd like to share. Over the past few months, or so, I have made thousnds of dollars selling made-up, brandable domain names. I have had over 100 name sales, primarily, in .com but, interestingly enough, sales have, also, been good in the other tld's and .us- somewhat, surprising considering the name group- and an encouraging sign for the potential of this category. Sales in this category have, significantly, outperformed all other name categories. In fact, my income from sales in this category more than tripled the profits that I realized from all of my LLL, 3Char and prime keyword domain name sales *combined* and my sales in those groups haven't been too shabby. So, all of you domainers out there who have been registering "made-up" domains, take heart. If my, real world, success and several of the recent sales I've seen at Sedo and Afternic are indicators, than it looks like the market is picking up some speed and I project that there is a very bright future ahead for the category.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Before, I list some of the names that I've sold, reveal my methods for creating and locating good "made up" names and outline the techniques that I use to locate and target the right endusers, I have a secret to disclose. The paragraph above is a hypothetical example of an unsubstiated claim that presents the appearence of being backed up by facts and figures. Here is a breakdown of one of the, several, possible scenarios that this claim,"accurately" represents:

1) "Over the past few months, or so..." - What does this mean? 4 months? 7 months? 11 months? Let's interpret this as 11 mos.
2) "thousnds of dollars" - $2000, $5000, $50,000 ? Let's go w/ $2000.
3) "over 100 name sales"- how many over 100? Let's go w/ 101.
4) "primarily, in .com but, interestingly enough, sales have, also, been good in the other tld's and .us, - somewhat, surprising considering the name group... ". This could mean that there was one .net sale one .us. and 99 .Com sales. What is surprising is that there were any non-.com sales in this category, at all.
5) "sales in this category more than tripled the profits that I realized from all of my LLL, 3Char and prime keyword domain name sales *combined*'" Hmm... What, than, were the profits that were realized from LLL, 3 char and keyword name sales and how many names were sold? Profits could have been anywhere from $0 on up. Lets go w/ just under 1/3 of the $2000 we assigned to the total income of made-up name sales or $665. Let's interpret this statement as a $665 sale of a .us LLL.

All of the values assigned remain true to the parameters of the description and are, therefore, "accurate". If our interpretation is correct, the claim being made would mean that during the past 11 mos, our hypothetical domainer sold 101 "made up" domains for $2000, (roughly, $1.98/name) and had a $665 sale of an LLL .us name. Of the 101 names, 99 were .com, 1 was a .Net and 1 was a .US. I am willing to bet that this is not the picture that came to your mind, after reading the opening paragraph of this post.

Although this "real world" example is based upon "fact" there are so many possible ways that the information can be interppretted that tthe "facts" are, essentially, useless. For the purpose of analysis, my breakdown of our hypothetical domainer's claims went to the extreme end of possibility and it is doubtful that anyone would twist their facts to support their conclusions in such a blatant manner. It's not, usually, the big, black lie that will deceive and mislead you. It's all of those liitlle white ones.

There isn't a day that goes by that I don't see an opinion or an assertion that has been drawn from a conclusion that is based upon the dubious interpretation of information and is, than. proclaimed to be, unequivocal, fact. Questioning, challenging or requesting a poster to expand on their assertion is, more often than not, met with a cry of, "Foul!" or with no answer, at all. There are dozens of examples of this in threads that I have been active in this week, alone. I would provide you with links but, because the practice is so widespread, it would be unfair to single out any, one, particular member. Once you know what to look for, it won't be difficult for you to find your own examples or, if necessary, drop in on some of the threads I have been participating in, take a look around and draw your own conclusions. You might, even, be able to find an example that exposes me slipping up, as well. :hehe:
 
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"History is the lie men agree to believe" Napoleon

Nice post Michael, I agree there are a lot of agendas propagated around. To be honest I don't pay attention to any of it because I look at in the end your on you're own in this business and can make it so many different ways. Only buy traffic names, Develop .60 .info's into content rich pages that make $1 a day or more in adsense (barefoot kicks booty doing this), Typos, Building generic .coms into businesses GolfCourses.com as an example. So I think its good to ask questions of trusted members here and then make your own moves. Data will always be twisted its the way of the world in the information age, Can local news get anyone to tune in without saying "if this is in your medicine cabinet you could be in danger" I think being here you have some of the best non agenda people in this business RJ is one of the bestIMO he could espouse an agenda to benefit himself but rather provides a place where no new person would have a chance in this business without. IMO I think you,DB,Mark,Chris,Scott and Badger do a good job of keeping things real and newbies should know they can pm you for the real story. I think DN Journal is another great resource and Ron is certainly a professional Journalist. The beauty of this business is anything can work.
 
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An honest, clear, clean and realistic perspective, equity. Thanks for the feedback.
 
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When considering statistics, consider these quotes:

โ€œIt ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.โ€ - Mark Twain

โ€œGet your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.โ€ - Mark Twain

โ€œThe most interesting information comes from children, for they tell all they know and then stopโ€ - Mark Twain

"Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures." - Evan Esar

"Statistics: the mathematical theory of ignorance." - Morris Kline

"There are lies, damned lies and statistics." - Mark Twain

"Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable." - Mark Twain

"An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - for support rather than for illumination." - Andrew Lang

"There are two kinds of statistics, the kind you look up, and the kind you make up." - Roy Stout

"Statistics: The only science that enables different experts using the same figures to draw different conclusions." - Evan Esar

"Statistician: A man who believes figures don't lie, but admits that under analysis some of them won't stand up either." - Evan Esar

"36.6% of all statistics are just made up, 83.5% are distorted, and the other 6.7% just don't add up." - Me :)
 
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AdoptableDomains said:
When considering statistics, consider these quotes:

โ€œIt ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.โ€ - Mark Twain

โ€œGet your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.โ€ - Mark Twain

โ€œThe most interesting information comes from children, for they tell all they know and then stopโ€ - Mark Twain

"Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures." - Evan Esar

"Statistics: the mathematical theory of ignorance." - Morris Kline

"There are lies, damned lies and statistics." - Mark Twain

"Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable." - Mark Twain

"An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - for support rather than for illumination." - Andrew Lang

"There are two kinds of statistics, the kind you look up, and the kind you make up." - Roy Stout

"Statistics: The only science that enables different experts using the same figures to draw different conclusions." - Evan Esar

"Statistician: A man who believes figures don't lie, but admits that under analysis some of them won't stand up either." - Evan Esar

"36.6% of all statistics are just made up, 83.5% are distorted, and the other 6.7% just don't add up." - Me :)


=================================================================


Grrilla - interesting article... are you now or have you ever been - a professional writer ??


AdoptableDomains - or anyone that knows the answer to this:
Wo is Ray Stout, Evan Esar and Morris Kline ??
What are they famous for ??

~DomainBeLL (Patricia)


.
 
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Interesting that 41.67% of those quotes were from a man, Samuel Clements, who used a pseudonym.

(And who had more wisdom than just about anybody else, then or now)
 
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DomainBELL said:
AdoptableDomains - or anyone that knows the answer to this:
Wo is Ray Stout, Evan Esar and Morris Kline ??
What are they famous for ??

~DomainBeLL (Patricia)

I don't know. I just found their quotes about statistics. I guess they are famous for saying those things. ;)

accentnepal said:
Interesting that 41.67% of those quotes were from a man, Samuel Clements, who used a pseudonym.

Wow, we all have something in common with Samuel Clemens! 96.35% of us are going by pseudonyms here too.
 
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I misinterpreted the title

When I read the thread title I thought you had started a Political discussion in the wrong forum.


:) Grilla




Best wishes,
Kimmy
 
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slaughterbeck said:
When I read the thread title I thought you had started a Political discussion in the wrong forum.


:) Grilla




Best wishes,
Kimmy
C'mon, now, slaughterbeck. You know that I'm not one for controversy.
Actually, this post was very cathartic, for me. (Political discussions have, quite, the opposite effect.) It's, as if, I isolated and corraled the problems that have given me the most grief in discussion threads, tied a ribbon around them and put them into a tidy, pretty, little package- like you. :red: (the package, that is- not the problematic contents.) :hehe:
 
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And after the adoption of helmets, more people had head injuries in a war.......of course, they would have died otherwise.

Statistics are great. When I first starting reading your post it made sense to me...with so many names taken, new businesses will make up words. Alas, that was not the case.
 
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dan_Vt said:
And after the adoption of helmets, more people had head injuries in a war.......of course, they would have died otherwise.

Statistics are great. When I first starting reading your post it made sense to me...with so many names taken, new businesses will make up words. Alas, that was not the case.
The first draft of the post used LLL domains as the centerpiece. I switched to keyword domains because I didn't want to give the impression that I was singling out the LLL folks. (I've been engaged in an ongoing debate w/ them in another thread.) I switched to keyword domains and, finally, landed on "made-up" domains figuring I was in safe territory if there were any objections because I believe in the category and am one of it's biggest supporters. What, particular, name category I inserted was immaterial to the point I was making. Sorry, if you feel were deceived. I agree w/ the conclusion that you arrived at, when you finished reading the first paragraph. -> http://www.CQmics.com
 
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Grrilla said:
The first draft of the post used LLL domains as the centerpiece. I switched to keyword domains because I didn't want to give the impression that I was singling out the LLL folks. (I've been engaged in an ongoing debate w/ them in another thread.) I switched to keyword domains and, finally, landed on "made-up" domains figuring I was in safe territory if there were any objections because I believe in the category and am one of it's biggest supporters. What, particular, name category I inserted was immaterial to the point I was making. Sorry, if you feel were deceived. I agree w/ the conclusion that you arrived at, when you finished reading the first paragraph. -> http://www.CQmics.com

No, don't feel deceived at all, sorry if I came across that way. I completely agree with what you are saying.

I've asked questions to those selling sites and domains and have gotten half-answers and generally just then stay away from those sales. Without background and details, numbers hold no meaning because there is no real context to place them in.
 
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Hi Grrilla,

FANTASTIC post.

I would say it sums up so much of internet business these days ( not just domain trading ) that people fall for.

Having said that is is very difficult for people to tell who is telling the truth and who is a politician/accountant ( with deepest appologies to both ).

One number is a fact ..... Two or more and you can make what you want of them :)

All the best.

Richard
 
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dan_Vt said:
No, don't feel deceived at all, sorry if I came across that way. I completely agree with what you are saying.

I've asked questions to those selling sites and domains and have gotten half-answers and generally just then stay away from those sales. Without background and details, numbers hold no meaning because there is no real context to place them in.
Agreed. If I'm buying a computer and I don't know the vendor, I'm not going to hand him over my money based upon what he tells me is inside of a brown box with "Apple" written on it. I'm going to take a look inside, make sure it is what he says it is, and verify that it runs.
This applies to domain name and website sales, as well as, claims that have the ability to sway public opinion, influence purchase patterns and, ultimately, impact the market place. Unsubstantiated claims that end up to be false can also leave someone, who bought into them, all alone, holding the bag.
 
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Grrilla said:
This applies to domain name and website sales, as well as, claims that have the ability to sway public opinion, influence purchase patterns and, ultimately, impact the market place. Unsubstantiated claims that end up to be false can also leave someone, who bought into them, all alone, holding the bag.

That is something I find more rampant in this industry. Because of the nature of the net (don't take this as an arguement to change it) anyone can say anything. One gullible (or the more kindly "uninformed") visitor and the "swayor" can make some money.

We used to think "if it's in print it's true" and some still have that tendency (though we all probably do to a certain extent).

Just one of those things we have to deal with.
 
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We used to think "if it's in print it's true"

And look at how much money that made the 'medicine men' in the old Wild West :)

Advertising ( e.g. lying ) has been around for as long as records go back ... The problem now is that it is being exposed to a much wider audience, and with a bigger access to money ..... Notice I did not say 'Disposable Income'.

Our society is getting too much that it is always someone elses fault and people are not willing to take resposibility for their own actions that a lot of folks no longer think they have to think.

I'm not defending the fraudsters ... But even when I was a kid if someone came up to me and said they could quadruple my money I would have told them where to go.

I have on occasions been asked by friends about making money on the net ( usually in the pub after a few beers :) .... This is how I always respond....

' So, how would you like to be able to double your money in a few minutes ? I'll show you how and guarantee the results if you follow what I say, of it does not work I'll give you your money back .... So no risk'

Invariably ( for those that had not seen this before, and were usually giggling to themselves ) the unwitting fall guy would agree .... So it goes on :

' Right give me ten pounds out of your pocket, don't panic, I've told you that if you follow my instructions you will get 20 back or I will give you your money back.'

They ALWAYS give the money ( I must admit the talk has been shortened here a bit :)

The I just tell them to go and do exactly what I have done to them to two other people :)

That is basically how a lot of money making schemes work, others are just people trying to levitate their stake in a certain 'stock' ( either domains or anything else ) by saying how well they are doing.

Basically ... You have a brain, so use it :)

All the best.

Richard
 
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A very interesting thread. I am a statistician by trade and found the use of percentages etc most enlightening. :)
 
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Treacle said:
A very interesting thread. I am a statistician by trade and found the use of percentages etc most enlightening. :)
Wow. I would love to pick your brain. It would be interesting to get a pros-eye view of statistical analysis and the influence of "framing" the parameters and shifting the weight of values, (in my layman words) can influence the results. Manipulating statisics to make them say what one wants them to say in support of one's argument is a popular topic of discussion here and it would be enlightening to hear from someone who has had formal training and who works in the field.

In the past, was advertising more truthful or, at least, less slanted than it is in the present. Today, it has become normal- almost, a second nature reflex- for people to tune out and not believe the bulk of an advertiser's message. Granted, individual's are exposed to more, have a broader frame of reference and are less naive than in generations past but I get the impression that I am living in a, particularly, cynical age. People have become more jaded, advertisers have become more sophisticated in their deception and the advertiser who is follows the path of truth and attempts to make truthful claims about his product or services, often, gets lost.
Perhaps I am seeing things, too, one dimentionally, here.
 
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This was from another thread titled "The "real" value of LLLL.com domains" started by member accentnepal:
http://www.namepros.com/domain-name-discussion/207497-the-real-value-llll-com-domains.html

Member wow! states:

wow! said:
If some speculators would want, they'll reg all LLLL .com names and sell each other for $xxx-$xxxx
Now the worth of LLLL.coms will be higher.
Thats what happened to the LLL .coms.
1-2 years ago LLL .coms value were $1k
No reason for them to worth these days $5k-50k.
Demand could be a creation of fake sales...

Just my 2cents opinion...
My reply then:

~ Cyberian ~ said:
I have wondered that myself. This would be the same as stock manipulation.
If this is in fact the case, we (the small players) are in real trouble.

When you see a sale of $10,000-$20,000 for a name and 6 months later it still sits
on a Reg House parking page, or worse, Page Not Found, you have to wonder about
the agenda of both buyer and seller.

This is not only LLL .com sales that could be suspect under this scenario... hmmm.

Your 2cents opinion is scary, wow!, but worth much more if true.

Peace,
Cyberian
How does this relate to this thread?
Grrilla is talking (I believe) about manipulation of perceived values by people with an agenda.

As I said, wow!'s 2cents opinion is scary, and under different scenarios... a horror movie beyond belief.

Peace,
Cyberian

ps, It's not that I'm paranoid, it's just that everyone is out to get me.
I mean seriously, how many times can Tide be new and improved? :hehe:
 
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