LLLL.com evaluation thread

[italiandragon]

While the last LLLL.com are taken (you can check www.dyyo.com to know how many are left) , I really feel the need to have a sort of 4L price guide on the same sort of the 3L/ 3 chars price guide.

I asked to people to create a database of LLLL.com sales but it seems no one can do it so I`m going to create it myself as much as I can on just a forum thread. If I knew how to create a database I was doing it.

Keep in mind that this thread is still in the early stage and I`ll update it as much as I can. I will update this first post so it will be easier for everyone to know what`s going on in the LLLL.com aftermarket. It is going to take me a lot of my spare time but I hope that eventually soon , someone will create a software that will run by itself Till then , let`s hope I can have time!

So, just for the newbies , let`s see what we already know about the 3 chars.com price guide:

"The quality of the letter composition can play a significant role in determining 3-letter valuations. General concensus states that the letters A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T are considered premium letters. Other lesser high quality letters include: J, K, U, V, W. Lower quality letters include: Q, X, Y, Z. Domains selling for less than the above figures would represent a strong buy in today's market. Premium letter only domains tend to fetch a 500% to 600% premium (or more) over the Minimum Wholesale Price. Mixed letter quality domains have valuations somewhere in the middle of these two extremes."


I think we could adjust the same rules to the LLLL.com

Let`s play a little bit with the letters to find out what are the minimun reseller prices as for now , end of September 2007 (NOTE: THIS FIRST THREAD IS CONSTANTLY UPDATED WITH THE NEW INFO HIGHLIGHTED IN RED)

Obviously we should analyse in this thread ONLY the NON pronunciable ones to consider ONLY the quality of letters, so not even a very well known acronym but only 4 random letters.

For the "other" LLLL.com sales and evaluations based on pronunciability , then you may find useful this other thread:

http://www.namepros.com/domain-name-discussion/358387-the-llll-com-sales-report-thread.html

I`ll start with my opinion but feel free to add yours so we can get to a sort of price guide.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

A LLLL.com including 2 or more of "Q, X, Y, Z" (as long as they are not 2 of the same) I`d say less no more than $10 since there are still 12,000 of them left.

EXAMPLE: GXZH.com (no more than $10)

There is one example of these ones right now on ebay, ending in less than 3 hours:

http://cgi.ebay.com/hzxv-com-Origin...ryZ11153QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem


Obviously even with 2 "bad letters" , when they start to be pronunciable this is what happens:

ZAYM.com $201

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=300162205723&category0=&fvi=1

Double letters such as:

GXXH.com
ZZDC.com
FYYT.com
DRQQ.com

I`d appraise them at minimun $20-$30 depending on the letters. Double but not consecutives letters would just be below the above ones.


XSXT.com $20.50

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=170160241510&category0=&fvi=1



Triple bad letters such as:

QQQD.com
FZZZ.com
RXXX.com
YYYG.com

I`d appraise them at minimun $70-$100 depending on the letters.


Then we may analyse the ones with only 1 bad letter (always Q, X, Y, Z):

FGZS.com
EYDF.com
PXSE.com
TFQG.com

These kind of LLLL .com are still available so reg fee to $10 , must be for them.


UPDATED:

SOME AUCTIONS ON EBAY ARE GETTING ABOVE $10:


http://cgi.ebay.com/ZWTO-com-4-Lett...ryZ11153QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

http://cgi.ebay.com/FGXR-com-4-Lett...ryZ11153QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

UPDATE 13 OCTOBER: ON EBAY PRICES ARE CONSTANTLY ABOVE $10 FOR LLLL WITH JUST 1 BAD LETTER , SOMETIMES ABOVE $20 TOO.

ZATB.com $12.49

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=270170293855&category0=&fvi=1

RLYN.com $36

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=200159375608&category0=&fvi=1


RBYK.com $29.99

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=200163278990&category0=&fvi=1


HRHY.com $30.80

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=300162203800&category0=&fvi=1


YATG.com $23.95

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=300162885146&category0=&fvi=1


a double letter with 1 bad letter :

IIZP.com $42

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=300161869692&category0=&fvi=1




---------------------------------------------------------------------
Then we have the ones which include the group "lesser high quality letters": J, K, U, V, W.

These ones have lately bought totally so the minimun reseller price must be above reg fee , let`s say $10 - $20 depending from the letters. Some people tend to include J, K and U in the premium letters. I`d definitely include the vowel U but I guess this is a personal point of view.
Even here at NP , LLLL including just the letter U tend to outperform this category:

FGUB.com $32 (October 2007)

http://www.namepros.com/domains-for-sale-auctions/383276-fgub-com-1-start-great-4letter.html

It may be also useful to consider that K and W were sold out earlier than J and V.



There is one example of these ones right now on ebay, ending in 3 hours:

http://cgi.ebay.com/UMGV-COM-4-Lett...ryZ11153QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem


UPDATE 25 OCTOBER:

Things are getting hotter (at the moment less than 7000 LLLL are left) and U and this category is quickly raising its reselling value on EBAY:

DPTU.com $54.51 now

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=300162512206&category0=&fvi=1


RWEO.com $78.00

http://cgi.ebay.com/RWEO-com-LLLL-4...ryZ11153QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem


The letter U and W obviously are not that bad

The letter V in Italian is very much used , while in China is not so a lot depends from your background.

J is not my favourite in this group (as in the Italian alphabet there is no J-K-W-X-Y ) but certainly is getting attention by someone else:

RCEJ.com $30

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=120172045546&category0=&fvi=1


Then we have 2 of the group J, K, U, V, W such as:

GJJA.com
FVVO.com
KKTR.com

I`d say $30 to $50 as they are all gone and the double letter will increase their rarity.


FNKK.com $52

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=300162204984&category0=&fvi=1

2 of them but not the same 2 (double) are less valuable:

http://cgi.ebay.com/VWTP-com-4-Lett...ryZ11153QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

VDUZ.com $26

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...from=R8&satitle=200159969339&category0=&fvi=1


WPEJ.com $23.15

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=200163499690&category0=&fvi=1


With 3 of them , like :

GJJJ.com
FVVV.com
KKKT.com

I`d say $100 -$150

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Then we have the best of the best: ALL PREMIUM letters:


A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T



Names like CLFO.com or FGTR.com or ATFI.com are going to get $$$.

I can`t find any of these LLLL.com for less than $100 , sometimes not even $200 buy them.
So I`d say a really minimun of $100 to easily $200 each.
At places like Snapnames.com, the all premium letters even if they are non pronunciables , are going already for above $400 and the market is getting hotter day by day.

If the name appears to have 2 of a kind like:

SSFO.com or GBBT.com then we should be at minimun $200 to $300

3 of a kind such DDDF.com or TLLL.com will get over $300 to $500

SPECIALS​

Anything like this is an added value.

In my daily observation of LLLL.com sales I noticed that any of the following abbreviations and/or suffixes are more valuable:

- IT (Information Tecnology or Italy)

- MY

Examples:

IMYO.com $449

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...from=R8&satitle=300158326938&category0=&fvi=1

BMMY.com $350

http://sedo.com/auction/auction_detail.php?language=us&auction_id=18688&tracked=&partnerid=


HFMY.com $37.50

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=300162885558&category0=&fvi=1


- UK

UKIX.com ended on TDNAM.com @ $146

- DE

- US

- CA

- OZ (Australia)

- NZ (new Zealand)

- GO

- HI

Examples:

HIXV.com $59 (October 2007)

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...from=R8&satitle=120169750537&category0=&fvi=1

- OK

- KG

- CV (Curriculum Vitae)

- DR (Doctor)

- DJ

Examples:

DJBX.com $45 (October 2007)

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=170158507650&category0=&fvi=1


And more that I`ll add as soon as I can think of them!

Also,some letters add value because of their very common use.

The letter E , I and O add value usually because can mean E-lectronic , I-nternet and O-nline.

Other nice letters are:

C for Corporation or Company , L for Limited , A for Association.

The best positions are usually in the first or in the 4th spot depending from the letter. For example E will be better in the first spot while L for Limited will be better in the 4th spot but all of these letters can add value.


Other special categories that attract a bonus are based on the numbers of vowels.
There are only 5 vowels so the LLLL.com with 4 vowels are extremely rare and even the ones with 3 vowels perform very well as their demand is high.

Some recent examples:

OEOV.com $56

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=110183807446&category0=&fvi=1


EOAJ.com $52

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=110183814160&category0=&fvi=1

CVCV & VCVC​

Let`s start from the TOP this time:

CVCV.com

all premium letters Like BIFE.com or DAGO.com

minimun......well here it is hard since prices increase quickly ....maybe $1,500 ?


CVCV.com with 1 bad letter like BIZE or DAQO.com about $800

CVCV.com with 1 bad and 1 average letters like NUQE.com or VAXO.com about $500

CVCV.com with 1 bad and 2 average letters like WUQA.com or ZOVU.com

about $300

It was right WUQA.com that made me realize that I forgot the 1 bad + 2 average ones. People reported that WUQA.com ended on TDNAM.com at $315 (end of October)

CVCV.com with 2 bad letters like QEZI.com or ZIXO.com about $400

CVCV.com with 2 bad letters and 1 average letter like QUZI.com or ZUXO.com about $300

CVCV.com with 2 bad and 2 average letters (MUST BE DOUBLE U) like QUZU.com or ZUXU.com about 300



Now let`s see the VCVC.com

all premium letters Like IFEB.com or AGOC.com about $1,000 ?

VCVC.com with 1 bad letter like IZEB or AQOC.com about $500

VCVC.com with 1 bad and 1 average letters like OZUD.com or AXUF.com about $300 - $350 (I sold OZUD.com on SEDO in August for $330)

VCVC.com with 2 bad letters like AXEZ.com or IQOX.com about $200

VCVC.com with 2 bad letters and 1 average letter like UXEZ.com or UXOQ.com about $100

VCVC.com with 2 bad and 2 average letters (MUST BE DOUBLE U) like UZUQ.com or UXUZ.com about 100



I`m currently taking input on the CVCV and the VCVC where Y is the last vowel.

The first recent example is this one:

OGYZ.com $57.99

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dl...sid=m37&satitle=200157925898&category0=&fvi=1


I leave the CVVC and VCCV to others as I did not have much experience with them yet.


SALES OF RANDOM (NON PRONUNCIABLE) LLLL.COM AT OTHER VENUES:

SEDO.com​

Interesting Sedo Auctions show many crappy LLLL.com with bids

UPDATE: CHECK THE AUCTIONS BELOW THAT ARE NOW ALL ENDED....PRICES ARE GETTING SHOCKING!

zekh.com $120

http://sedo.com/auction/auction_detail.php?language=us&auction_id=18336&tracked=&partnerid=

zeow.com $300

http://sedo.com/auction/auction_detail.php?language=us&auction_id=18360&tracked=&partnerid=

ucnk.com $120

http://sedo.com/auction/auction_detail.php?language=us&auction_id=18468&tracked=&partnerid=

ahlq.com $243

http://sedo.com/auction/auction_detail.php?language=us&auction_id=18528&tracked=&partnerid=


hobf.com 100 Eur= $140

http://sedo.com/auction/auction_detail.php?language=us&auction_id=18576&tracked=&partnerid=


jvbb.com 100 Eur=$140

http://sedo.com/auction/auction_detail.php?language=us&auction_id=18693&tracked=&partnerid=

yvze.com 70 Euros=$105

http://sedo.com/auction/auction_detail.php?language=us&auction_id=18730&tracked=&partnerid=


Are we already starting to see a minimun price of $100 for each LLLL.com ?


Please share your opinions on the one of the hottest niches of the domain market

Thank you

 

[duceman]

I remember buying 20 or so last year that are at some obscure registrar. I'll have to search my Gmail account to try and find out where/what they are.

 

[mwzd]

Filter's got it figured out.

Build a private anti premium collection, Hook the kids onto LLLL.com, Teach them mandarin and voila... all anti-premiums are now premiums.

Great thought process Dan...

 

[italiandragon]

Filter's got it figured out.

Build a private anti premium collection, Hook the kids onto LLLL.com, Teach them mandarin and voila... all anti-premiums are now premiums.

Great thought process Dan...

Indeed! :sold:

 

[filter]

Filter's got it figured out.

Build a private anti premium collection, Hook the kids onto LLLL.com, Teach them mandarin and voila... all anti-premiums are now premiums.

Great thought process Dan...

well ... it's been a process, to be sure - but most of the thinking involved has been well after the fact!

Damn lucky with this one. (And with my kids too ... twins!)

Knowing languages other than English definitely would be a major benefit for finding under-valued LLLL for the "long term growth" play ... But I just took the vacuum-cleaner approach!

well, to be honest - not exactly vacuumng - since I don't have the budget for mass acquisition, I must have some selection process - but it seems to be mostly pre-cognitive.

oh yeah ... now I get it - a good quote from the late 90's bubble era ... "in a bull market, everyone thinks they're a genius!"

right.

so, fellow einsteins of the early LLLL bull run ... here's something maybe worth evaluating: WHAT WOULD IT TAKE TO DERAIL THIS TRAIN ???

we've all been thinking about all the things driving it, and how long it's going to take to get to $1000 for QVXZ ... every now and then might hear some incoherent heckling from the WTF crowd ... and rarely any really thoughtful "well, here's what could go wrong" from anyone not heavily invested in cognitive dissonance avoidance futures.

So, as a thought exercise for the LLLL bull market geniuses - in a parallel universe (okay, maybe this one) - what might signal an upcoming loop for this rollercoaster ?

(Wondering if this is actually the right thread for this, or would it be derailing the "pls appraise my line noise" and more generally random discussion ...?)

Well, just thinking out loud a bit ... have been meaning to do some more thorough analysis of possibilities of different outcomes - but it's hard to stop and sniff around for BS when everything has been coming up roses so far ...

I've always tried to maintain a bit of a skeptical "probabilistic" outlook just on general principles, but really now starting to feel a bit giddy with expectations at this point.

so, just for fun - try to think of a scenario where all LLLL.com do not reach prices of $100+ by June.

Drops?

Dumping?

Major economic collapse?

Normal market dynamics?

What will it take to stall this train? :yell:

 

[Pred]

took the vacuum-cleaner approach!

lol :hehe:

we don't have our own gordon gecko,
but we do have 'johnny the hoover' and 'vlad the inhaler'

they are our hoover kings :sold:

also 'reece the nailer' :sold:

 

[champ_rock]

completely in agreement. i think even a large scale sale of LLLL.com domains by some big investors at a single time might bring the market crashing with more peopl following. if we see the past values of LLL.us etc, they have all reached a high point and then fallen definately. You can call it normal market correction. Therefore I think that once LLLL.com domains reach a peak they will definately come down to some extent. The trick is to estimate what is the peak and what is the time to sell ur domains.

 

[italiandragon]

completely in agreement. i think even a large scale sale of LLLL.com domains by some big investors at a single time might bring the market crashing with more peopl following. if we see the past values of LLL.us etc, they have all reached a high point and then fallen definately. You can call it normal market correction. Therefore I think that once LLLL.com domains reach a peak they will definately come down to some extent. The trick is to estimate what is the peak and what is the time to sell ur domains.

1) that one should be a very silly "big investor"


2) so you think that if someone sells 1,000 3 letters .com , all of suddenly we may be able to buy LLL.com for just $500 ?


3) eventually, the market will re-gain value like it happens in the stock market after some big shareholder , sells his share suddenly, if the stock is good, it goes back up pretty fast.

 

[duceman]

A little profit taking is always best. Its better to have 50 4l.com's with zero debt than to have 75 4l.com's with debit.


But right now the market is so strong that even if 5k were to hit the market they would get snapped up. A lot of the 4L investors aren't looking to flip or for a short term investment. They are looking several years out and that will keep the market stable IMO......


I think I said the opposite a while back :hehe:

 

[jido]

so, just for fun - try to think of a scenario where all LLLL.com do not reach prices of $100+ by June.

Dumping?

I believe there are chances that big chunks of the less palatable LLLL.com get dumped at some point. Maybe LLLL.com owners that did not hear of Namepros? :hehe:
Which should be a great buying opportunity for those who can find hidden gems...

Major economic collapse?

Definitely something I would consider. Though if the dollar continues its descent $100 then may not be much more than $50 today... In which case they will sell for $100 anyway :lol:

 

[champ_rock]

1) that one should be a very silly "big investor"


2) so you think that if someone sells 1,000 3 letters .com , all of suddenly we may be able to buy LLL.com for just $500 ?


3) eventually, the market will re-gain value like it happens in the stock market after some big shareholder , sells his share suddenly, if the stock is good, it goes back up pretty fast.

1. you cannot comment on the rationality of the BIG investor! There is recession looming in US. So what if one biggie who probably has got a lot of domains decides to sell his domains for the sake of running his slowing business ? THere are quite a lot of things possible. I am not saying that it WILL happen but it might happen. Biggies selling is just one possibility.

2. Suppose if one person owning 1,000 LLL.com domains decides to sell and many others follow suite (remember herd behaviour?) and there is excess supply of LLL.com domains? Such things have happened in past and can happen again (atleast in stock markets). Again, I am not saying that this will happen. This is just a possiblilty.

3. you are forgetting that if one person sells his stocks and many follow him then the markets crash. They might recover but the damages are felt for a long long time.

I think it would be appropriate to think of the domaining business as slow motion stock markets (atleast for random characters like LLLL, CCC etc) Stock markets are much more volatile and they have so called a uniform platform for trading. In case of domains there is difference. But nevertheless , it should not affect the comparison,

And lastly, I am not recommending that ppl should not invest. I myself have invested in LLLL.com domains but I am just saying that being TOOO aggressive might be a mistake.

 

[italiandragon]

1. you cannot comment on the rationality of the BIG investor! There is recession looming in US. So what if one biggie who probably has got a lot of domains decides to sell his domains for the sake of running his slowing business ? THere are quite a lot of things possible. I am not saying that it WILL happen but it might happen. Biggies selling is just one possibility.

2. Suppose if one person owning 1,000 LLL.com domains decides to sell and many others follow suite (remember herd behaviour?) and there is excess supply of LLL.com domains? Such things have happened in past and can happen again (atleast in stock markets). Again, I am not saying that this will happen. This is just a possiblilty.

3. you are forgetting that if one person sells his stocks and many follow him then the markets crash. They might recover but the damages are felt for a long long time.

I think it would be appropriate to think of the domaining business as slow motion stock markets (atleast for random characters like LLLL, CCC etc) Stock markets are much more volatile and they have so called a uniform platform for trading. In case of domains there is difference. But nevertheless , it should not affect the comparison,

And lastly, I am not recommending that ppl should not invest. I myself have invested in LLLL.com domains but I am just saying that being TOOO aggressive might be a mistake.

I`m sorry but disagree on this extremely negative scenario.

The difference is a big one: who`s the buyer of the domains? ENDUSERS.....WORLDWIDE ENDUSERS so, honestly if the Usa crash or even become what Africa is now, there are still many many Other millions of endusers around the world.

I have seen plenty of "panic selling" in the stock markets ( Sep 12 2001 was one of the biggest ones where sharks made a hell of money with short options and call options on oil prices).

The only way for the LLLL.com to collapse would be in my opinion that all domain industry collapse.

 

[mwzd]

1) that one should be a very silly "big investor"

Zigackly, even if someone wanted to unload in bulk, he'd give it to a broker to sell piecemeal rather than get pennies on the dollar for his lot.

And Dan, don't see a 'crash' happening.

Am sure there are still people waiting for LLL.coms to reach sub $1k levels

 

[champ_rock]

The economies are linked up so US crash causes the Hong Kong markets to crash as well. So it would be wrong to say that the slow-down in US will not affect other parts.

And regarding the end-user sales, I do not think they were any way in line with normal market prices which domainers buy/sell. For end-users it does not depend on what we call as LLLL CCC domains. They simply do not bother/care as long as the domain is a good acronym. It is true that end-users will find it difficult themselves to get good domains but as such increase in prices in LLLL.com domains will be a negative signal to most end-users who are not aware of the domainers prices. So the point is that you can still sell a LLLLLLL.com domain to some end-user who finds value for it but u cant sell a LLL.com domain saying that this is worth X,XXX$$ in domainers markets. They will simply not bother. Just try to get a lay-man to buy a a random LLL.com domain for even $100 and i am quite sure that he will reject the offer. There is a saying in my language which translated says- Only the jeweller knows the true value of gold.

 

[-REECE-]

I`m sorry but disagree on this extremely negative scenario.

The difference is a big one: who`s the buyer of the domains? ENDUSERS.....WORLDWIDE ENDUSERS so, honestly if the Usa crash or even become what Africa is now, there are still many many Other millions of endusers around the world.

I have seen plenty of "panic selling" in the stock markets ( Sep 12 2001 was one of the biggest ones where sharks made a hell of money with short options and call options on oil prices).

The only way for the LLLL.com to collapse would be in my opinion that all domain industry collapse.

I agree.. But let's not forget that the entire domain industry collapsing (or at least temporarily falling considerably in value) is perfectly plausible... We've seen it once already (or at least those of us who've been around a decade or so).

As for the big buyers selling out, most of us know how to sell without raising much suspicion :hehe:

Most of the big buyers are very confident in the future of LLLL.coms and that's the reason they made their big investments in the first place...

I'm currently offloading another $40k worth of LLLL.coms between a couple big buyers and a handful of smaller ones... I'll buy more LLLL.coms with it though, so it's not like I'm really having any impact on supply/demand. If anything, I'm further reducing supply because most of the people I'm selling to aren't interested in quick flips and hence I'm actually decreasing the available supply at current prices... When I turn around and take the money I receive to buy additional names, this will only further propel prices upwards... Just imagine if every big holder did what I'm doing! There'd be not a single bargain LLLL.com left in no time!

 

[Andrei P.]

i think even a large scale sale of LLLL.com domains by some big investors at a single time might bring the market crashing with more peopl following.

If big investor.... (who is big invester how many LLLL.coms he is to own to be considered big? 1000 LLLL.com? I don't think it will be big investor 10000 - I think it's already big investor)... So if big investor is selling 1000 LLLL.coms at once (for example 100$ each - this is just 100.000$) then I think there will be another big investor who will buy them for this opportunity. There are enough people that ready to invest 100k to LLL.coms that have much lesser growth. But still... imagine that big investor is ready to sell 10000 LLLL.com domains. Then I think he tries to sell them to influence on the market to make LLLL.com prices lower so that to buy them later again for lower price. Anyway, just hold to your LLLL.coms and you will not loose. Don't sell them when there's a panic just buy them if they are cheaper

 

[DotCN]

They're also learning to speak Mandarin (language elective) in school now ... so maybe they can help me with my anti-premiums one day too! Good kids!

:lol:

:hi: If they want, they could write to me in Chinese. I could teach them

 

[filter]

Long term - 10 years out - I'm pretty sure that LLLL.com prices will end up straddling LLL.com (high-end CVCV passing low-end QVX) and CCC.com (low-end QVXZ maybe competing with Z9Q) ...

Looking at more of a short-term "flippers" perspective ... how long can prices keep rising at 50% to 100% per month ?

Here are a few "normal market dynamics" scenarios ->

8 days ago I won FUHJ on eBay for $56
Right now, maybe an easy sale at $100
Now rolling it out at about 50% per month ->
March ... 150 ?
April ... 225 ?
May ... 335 ?
June ... 500 ?
July ... 750 ?
August ... 1000 ?
September ... 1500 ?
October ... 2250 ?
November ... 3350 ?
December ... 5000 ?!

At some point, price is going to go past the "reseller margin comfort zone" - ie, if a domainer buys FUHJ for $5000, can they expect to sell it to an end user in a reasonable amount of time for at least $10,000 ? Or are they just hoping for some "greater fool" reseller to come along in a month and pay $7500 for it just because "these LLLL always go up 50% per month ever since I can remember, that's just what they do."

Well, I dunno ... but would expect FUHJ to slow down a bit as it climbs to $5000 ... and I don't think it's all that likely to keep climbing 50% rungs on the ladder to reach $5000 by this December either ... (Though that sure would be nice!)

Well ... so will it slow down gradually, or suddenly, or go in reverse for a while to correct some "irrational exuberance" ...

Gradual slow-down scenario:
March ... 150 (+ 50%)
April ... 200 (+ 33%)
May ... 250 (+ 25%)
June ... 300 (+ 20%)
July ... 350 (+ 17%)
August ... 400 (+ 14%)
September ... 450 (+ 13%)
October ... 500 (+ 11%)
November ... 550 (+ 10%)
December ... 600 (+ 9%)

That seems a bit more realistic ... notice it goes up a steady $50 per month - but not a steady 50% per month! I think monthly return of about 10% per month is generally sufficient to make most long-term investors happy enough to hold onto their assets for a while longer, even in the rocket-fuel drinking domain markets ...

But right now - or in the very near future - there are probably going to be quite a few people jumping on board expecting 50% returns every month, and nothing less.

So skipping the "sudden slowdown" scenario (which also deserves to be examined - will get to that) - and now looking at a "correction" path:

March ... 150 (+ 50%)
April ... 225 (+ 50%)
May ... 300 (+ 33%) ("hmmm ... okay, just wait til next month, should pick up again!")
June ... 375 (+ 25%) ("hey - where's my 50% - that's 2 months in a row - everything I thought I knew was wrong - I'm outta here!")
July ... 375 (+ 0%) ("where did all the buyers go? has it peaked?")
August ... 300 (- 20%) ("the sky is falling! the sky is falling!")
September ... 250 (- 17%) ("drops start next month! October surprise around the corner!")
October ... 200 (- 20%) ("how low can it go? I'm waiting to buy in again, maybe ... but where are the drops?")
November ... 250 (+ 25%) ("no drops! some buyers are back sniffing around for deals! better get my inventory stocked again!")
December ... 300 (+ 20%) ("steady as she goes ... don't overpay this time!")

Sudden stall scenario w/o correction (due to anticipating the previous scenario, which thus doesn't actually happen!)
March ... 150 (+ 50%)
April ... 225 (+ 50%) ("hmmm ... I might be able to just wait and buy cheaper in October.")
May ... 225 (+ 0%) ("hey - maybe this isn't the ride to the peak then crash scenario after all!")
June ... 225 (+ 0%) ("well, may as well buy some more while they're still cheap - for the long term")
July ... 250 (+ 11%) ("better buy more now while still relatively cheap - guess it's not going to crash")
August ... 275 (+ 10%) ("Hmmmm guess it's not going to take off like a rocket either - I'll take my time buying, got some other hotter investment options now anyway")
September ... 275 (+ 0%) ("drops start next month! October surprise around the corner!")
October ... 275 (+ 0%) ("where are the drops?")
November ... 330 (+ 20%) ("no drops! no point in waiting much longer to buy for my long term plan")
December ... 400 (+ 20%) ("hey ... 20% a month is pretty good - hope it stays that way!")

 

[Shenron]

Very nice post...

I prefer to put it in a very simple way...

"How much would 100 of my relatives, friends, companies I know pay for a LLLL.com?"

Average that and you get to the point now...

I average this at $150 atm.

Why? Is this guy nuts?

Well, maybe yes, but they will never understand paying more for a quad premium, 'cause they just don't know what that is.

We have to rely on companies and large family biz and rich individuals... this is what I think.. (in a very simple way that is)

 

[mwzd]

Honestly speaking.. assuming $33 is a the floor price for 'any' llll.com now.

I'd think that even if it comes upto $250 min. by jan 2009, we're all on easy street.

But then again, what do I know...

 

[topdaytrader]

Where can you get one for $33? I can't even find LLLL.com under $100 now.