LLL.coms LLLL.coms have we hit the floor??

[betthelot]

Just trying to get a read on the market. I think of 4L.coms as the 'canary in the cage' for short dot coms, enough traded and liquid to give a very good real time read.

The bottom for 4L.coms Chips is now $1,100 - argue as much as you like about an odd $50 but that is what it is.
The bottom for 3L.coms Chips is now $38,000.

You can look at those figures from two angles, awful over last 4 months or fantastic over the last 18 months.

Both categories are supported by enduser demand so they both will have a floor but have we hit it. Not interested in the pure speculation categories such as 6N.coms LLLL.ws and new gTLDs LLLL.club with no underlying enduser support and the floor is what the next biggest fool will pay.

My feeling is that we are near the bottom because there now is meat on the bone at these levels to sell to endusers. Any thoughts observations?

 

[Silentptnr]

I think 4L.coms will go lower than you mentioned...unfortunately.

 

[HotDomainSales]

More decline yet to come imho.. the CHIP boat has all but sailed

 

[johnn]

The Pump is over - The Dump is in progress.
Below the floor is the basement.

I posted many times about the Pump & Dump but many people still believe that the price will go up!!!

There is no real demand
There is no real market
The price is ridiculous high

Don't listen to anyone but yourself. Do your own research. It's your money and you don't want to be the bag holder. The CHIP prices are not cheap and you can use the same amount of money to invest into something else safer.

 

[betthelot]

There is no real demand
There is no real market
The price is ridiculous high

But there is real demand for LLLL.coms, if you go to China you see many companies using acronyms both 3 and 4 letters, especially the internationally facing ones, the internal facing companies use mainly 3N.coms.
It follows there is a floor, as there is real demand, real market. I accept if you think the floor is much lower but how low for both 3L and 4L?

 

[johnn]

I believe in LLLL.com but not at ridiculous price. As a matter of fact I own quite a few LLLL.com names and sold them all during the hype.

I will buy them back when the price is stable and back to normal.
For now I buy LLLL.org LLL.us LLL.org and LLL.net - safe investment and great potential to resell.

 

[Silentptnr]

I believe that analysis of the performance of domain names as an asset class is still very unreliable. I genuinely appreciate the efforts being made by those who attempt to analyze sales and trends. However I believe that it will take years of data to establish "floors, ceilings, and absolute risk". Right now, the market is just too volatile to establish those numbers with any reliability.

What is clear is that the Chinese buyers that created an "asset class" in domain names, had huge impact not only their preferred types of domains, but the domaining industry as a whole. The excitement and profits made by some brought more people into domaining, and more universal exposure to the potential value in domain names.

What has also been clear is the investing disciplines used by wealthy investors is not a sensible discipline for the industry in general. For most average people (chinese or otherwise), responsible, careful, investing with low risk is the key. Understanding that today, nearly, if not all, highly valuable domains are already registered and investing now is most speculative.

There is some value in the analysis of market movement, however, in my opinion, the value of those analysis is mostly helpful in determining possible resale values day by day. Meaning, if I buy a domain today, what can I immediately sell it for.

JMO (just my opinion)

 

[Silentptnr]

Honestly, if the domain name system remains the primary addressing system used in the future, then, even less than ultra premium domain names, will some day be worth many, many times more than they have ever been.

When a domain name becomes as important as a phone number, it will be awesome for domain collectors.

 

[betthelot]

Honestly, if the domain name system remains the primary addressing system used in the future,

I think its a good bet that the domain name system his here to remain. Even a better system now will be difficult to get adopted. In a similar way postcodes, zip codes have not replaced house and street names that are 200 years old or the 100 year old keyboard layout designed to stop mechanical typewriters from jamming by slowing typing speed have remained, when other more quicker typing keyboard layouts have died instantly.

 

[Recons.Com]

Value supported by fundamentals for good chips (good meaning globally usable, not just Chinese market) is in $600-900 range, for bad ones (exceptionally Chinese use) I am going to say $250-500 depending on the meaning of the acronym for Chinese. And the reason they have lower fundamental value is that China is economically just single digit % of global economy and 1/4 of world population, plus it has .cn and plenty other options that compete with .com

 

[Silentptnr]

I think its a good bet that the domain name system his here to remain. Even a better system now will be difficult to get adopted. In a similar way postcodes, zip codes have not replaced house and street names that are 200 years old or the 100 year old keyboard layout designed to stop mechanical typewriters from jamming by slowing typing speed have remained, when other more quicker typing keyboard layouts have died instantly.

I was referring more to "apps". There have been articles which have suggested that domain names could be less important if mobile apps became a standard. I will say that seeing more companies like Facebook, Google and others entering the domain industry as registrars, is a good sign that domain names are just getting started. Once the big guys start putting big money into awareness and advertising, it is inevitable that more resales will occur.

As more and more end users look for great domains, they will undoubtedly find that the domains are already registered. They will naturally visit those domains and, if the domains are for sale, and have compelling landing pages, those visits could become sales.

While some domainers are concerned about chip values, I see alot of really good signs for the future of the domain industry. I really don't see anything, outside of the chip market, that is not continuing to appreciate, albeit slowly.

 

[Silentptnr]

As a side note, I find it interesting that Google removed PR from the public right about the same time it started selling domain names. Now PR is no longer a factor in the value of a domain name.

 

[Dorkside]

As a matter of fact I own quite a few LLLL.com names and sold them all during the hype.

Lucky you. Unfortunately for me, my story was more along these lines:

As a matter of fact I owned quite a few LLLL.com names and sold them all shortly before the hype.

 

[Silentptnr]

I made some money, but sold before prices peaked...this time.

 

[DomainVP]

Both categories are supported by enduser demand so they both will have a floor but have we hit it.

I think there is about $300 - $500 more to fall when it comes to 4L.com chips.

End users aren't as glamoured by 4L.coms as domainers are. A random 4L is a hard sell at the prices they are being acquired for.

Yes you can buy some, and hold them for a long time; for a hefty ransom. Do you really want to spend $1100 and hope for an offer to eventually come at a price point that justifies the $1100 spend.

Keep in mind that not too long ago most domainers didn't even want these, and they could be bought for $20 - $60. That was before the 'chip' game was being played.

So when the game is over, just where will these end up?

I can see a $500 price being realized before the end of the year; at best for 4L.com chip holders.

 

[Recons.Com]

As a side note, I find it interesting that Google removed PR from the public right about the same time it started selling domain names. Now PR is no longer a factor in the value of a domain name.

I have had domains with Google for couple of years now.