Dominion.Domains

John Colascione says .com market in 35% decline

Labeled as sales in Domain Industry News started by Rhythm8, Jun 11, 2017.

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  1. Rhythm8

    Rhythm8 Established Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Top 100 .com Domain Name Sales in 2015 Verses 2016 Shows 35% Decline

    Top 100 .com Domain Name Sales in 2015 Verses 2016 Shows 35% Decline

    June 9, 2017 By John Colascione

    The top 100 .com domain sales in 2015 (left) accounted for a total of $37,670,400.00 in sales while the top 100 domain name sales in 2016 (right) accounted for $24,427,430.00. A 35% Decline in overall sales value.

    Have an opinion on what’s causing the decline? Put it in the comments below.



    Related:
     
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  2. Kuffy

    Kuffy Name Stag VIP

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    Every domain name is unique, so it is difficult to compare sales figures. Maybe the top 100 names haven't been sold in the last 20 years, or only a few of them. porno.com isn't comparable with hg.com, and neither are we.com and vivo.com.
     
  3. dordomai

    dordomai Active Member VIP

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    meaningless due to small sample size and outliers (porno.com)

    that being said it would not surprise me if there is less activity. China had a large part of the market but this year they are investing less in domains and more in other assets.
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2017
  4. Kate

    Kate Domainosaurus Rex VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Really ? Very distorted sampling.
    What happens if we the top 20 or top 50 ? Or maybe the top 333. Let's screw the numbers even more.
    Let's look at the whole volume of sales, and average prices if you want. Then we can talk.
     
  5. 4pm

    4pm namejitsu™ VIP

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    there's a slowdown indeed... at least in the number of sales

    as per Namebio
    (number of reported $1K+, $10K+, $50K+ sales for .com & all extension including .com)

    dn_sales.png

    i have not calculated $$$ amounts though..
     
  6. Asfas1000

    Asfas1000 Active Member VIP

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    Thanks for the graph although I think YTD and 2017 are reversed and >50,000 doesn't look right for 2017.
     
  7. 4pm

    4pm namejitsu™ VIP

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    sorry, YTD was actually meant to be last 365 days.
    all data is correct for 2017

    here's attempt to filter out Chinese stuff - only names with no numbers and longer than 5 letters:

    Screenshot 2017-06-11 at 18.25.26.png

    * YTD should be read as last 365 days (TTM). Sorry for the confusion
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2017
  8. urlurl

    urlurl Active Member VIP

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    the one thing Namebio doesn't capture very well are sales to end users. none of my end user sales are reported as they are done through non reporting market places, buy now pricing or private sales.

    namebio does a very good job capturing auction sales - usually to resellers and investors.
     
  9. 4pm

    4pm namejitsu™ VIP

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    sure. but there's no ground for assuming that % of unreported sales was lower in 2017 vs 2016 vs 2015. hence the trend is clearly downhill.

    i'd even call it a collapse :)
    lets take $10K+ .com sales: 387 in the last 12 month vs 1,281 in 2015 = 70% drop (!)

    looks quite alarming to me...
     
  10. Rhythm8

    Rhythm8 Established Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    \

    vol and avg in com are both in decline

    still want to talk?
     
  11. Rhythm8

    Rhythm8 Established Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    funny how .commie cartel perfectly fine using data and stats when it suits their agenda (e.g. ngtld reg no. falling)

    then when .com myths gets exposed suddenly data is meaningless because there goes the pyramid scheme....

    not saying .xyz is any better, I agree xyz will never replace .com

    I do not agree that .com will never be replaced or displaced
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2017
  12. urlurl

    urlurl Active Member VIP

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    If someone could get the sales and dollar volume from Brand bucket over the past 3 years - that would be a better indicator of the enduser market.
     
  13. ValleyRock

    ValleyRock Sales and Outreach

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    Market fundamentals will always prevail.

    Is their any real proof that the price of a domain ".com" has risen or fallen - permanently ?

    You buy when the market is down.
     
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2017
  14. loano1

    loano1 Established Member

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    I guess, if you add all the sales of ntlds to the list, the total market volume has grown. With so many options available, the sales are now more spread.
     
  15. promo

    promo Member ★★★★★★★★★★

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    I personally had the most profitable year in domaining ever in 2016.. And thats only from selling legacy extensions. 70% .com.
     
  16. Loxline

    Loxline Account Auto-Closed

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    Maybe the bubble indicator interfering with the sales. Mostly affecting micro-regional economies. Small to mid businesses slowing down with the expansion.

    fred.stlouisfed.org
     

    Attached Files:

  17. DzAH

    DzAH Established Member

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    seems like 2017 is better then last 365 days... u can 2x (+a little more) 2017 numbers and compare with "YTD"...

    not so much a decline then... :)
     
  18. Michael

    Michael NameBio.com NameBio Staff PRO ICA Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Yea, obviously we can't capture sales that happened in private, and weren't reported by the venue or one of the parties involved. People should feel free to email us screenshots though, we're happy to add your private sales. Just takes a second to send it and helps everyone else quite a bit. A majority of sales in our database are wholesale, but there are lots of retail records from Uniregistry, Sedo, DomainMarket, etc.

    I don't think you searched correctly, those numbers aren't right for sales $10k+. Past year is 910 sales not 387, you might have searched just 2017 although your number seems too low for that as well.

    2017: 437 (extrapolated out would be 979 - but probably higher as start to the year is slower)
    2016: 1,346
    2015: 2,329
    2014: 1,220
    2013: 1,354
    2012: 1,414

    Total dollar volume of $10k+ sales is:

    2017: $23,899,664 (extrapolated to $53,517,652)
    2016: $54,013,113
    2015: $94,212,855
    2014: $65,763,226
    2013: $53,763,852
    2012: $46,344,736

    So 2015 was a banner year as we all know due to the Chinese market, which also bled a little into 2016, but all the other years are pretty close to each other. Many people were cashing out at the top so sales were more frequent, which is why both quantity and dollar volume were almost double in 2015. The correction leveled out some time ago though.

    Now people are bag holding domains they overpaid for in late 2015 and early 2016 so sales are less frequent, but the dollar volume is still in line with previous years and average price of $10k+ sales are actually higher this year (even compared to 2015). It's just that less people are willing to sell and actually realize the loss, not an alarming sign of a crash.
     
  19. urlurl

    urlurl Active Member VIP

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    thanks for sharing the info, looking at pre 2015 figures you can see that the numbers aren't off from 2012-2014.

    Looks like 2015 was a banner year and should be excluded from trending.

    "numbers don't lie, but you can paint a different picture with the numbers one uses"

    DP
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2017
  20. 4pm

    4pm namejitsu™ VIP

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    in the second table all names shorter than 5 chars or having numbers in them are excluded to filter out "Chinese" markets.

    could you please post dollar amounts for these domains (no short & numerics)
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2017
  21. Michael

    Michael NameBio.com NameBio Staff PRO ICA Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    I will if I have time later today, but I don't really think this would lead to a good analysis. I understand your motivation in trying to filter out the Chinese hype, but you have to remember that short domains have always been more valuable (there is and has always been an overall correlation between length and sale price).

    Look at the top sales charts for previous years, we have them going back to 2004 on the side and you'll see they have always been totally dominated by short domains:

    https://namebio.com/top-100-domain-name-sales-all-time

    Take 2014 for example, 71 of the Top 100 sales are five characters or less. Should sales like Power.com, Check.com, Malls.com, Munch.com, etc. be excluded as Chinese hype? Certainly not, especially considering it was before the hype started. So by trying to filter out the insanity, I think what you're actually doing (for the most part) is filtering out quality.

    That leaves you with longer domains that are still valuable, like DataCenter.com, BitcoinWallet.com, etc. A decrease in volume for these types of sales doesn't, in my opinion, point to a crash. I think it shows a shift away from longer and/or descriptive types of names, and a flight to short/memorable/brandable words. Or maybe even a scarcity in these types of names going on the market, since the set of "longer" names that can still command high prices is pretty small.

    Fewer sales doesn't even always mean less interest (a negative sign), it could mean people are holding out for higher prices or are letting them expire less often (a positive sign). Hard to do this kind of market analysis, especially from 30,000 feet. I think it is better to take certain buckets (short dictionary, acronyms, numeric, Geo, etc.) and compare average sale prices year over year to see how the market is trending.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2017
  22. Michael

    Michael NameBio.com NameBio Staff PRO ICA Member VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    Also worth noting that a majority of sales $10k+ are end user sales, especially when you get up into the $50k+ range. So only looking at this segment could point to a lot of things, like there not being as many deep-pocketed domain investors in buying mode. The wholesale market could be strong while end user sales are on the decline. Could just be that more high-end sales are being put under NDA or people simply aren't reporting them as often. Or any combination of the above and probably other things I'm forgetting. Very difficult to say with this approach.

    But it's pretty easy to, say, look at 4L CHIPS and see where things are trending. Or look at dictionary sales of six or less characters and see where the average is headed. That sort of thing. Some segments could be crashing while others are thriving. And so on.
     
  23. Ategy.com

    Ategy.com NameCult.com Gold Account VIP

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    I'm not 100% sure .. but hasn't GoDaddy stopped sharing completed sales information at some point in the last year? I'm thinking that would certainly skew any year to year comparison to the point where no real comparison could be done (of overall sales).
     
  24. rhakim

    rhakim Established Member

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    Great article with statistics. Thanks for sharing.
     
  25. Brandingtheweb.com

    Brandingtheweb.com 123Capital.com VIP

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    If people value their good .com's more now that means less aftermarket sales (majority get reported) and more end-users sales (rarely reported).

    The more the people value their domains the less apt they are to sell for cheap, hence the lower aftermarket sales volume imo.
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2017

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