I'm just curious what everyones opinion is on this...

[jasonmjt]

We all know that 3 letter domain names are so valuable because they all have been purchased, and because there were so few of them to begin with. With that being said, what do you guys think 4 letter (not character) domain names would be worth if they were all purchased?

 

[Ronald Regging]

Mathematically speaking... roughly 1/26th... but thats assuming all combinations of letters are treated equally, but I've seen LLLL.com go for more than LLL.com... All the premium letter domains and word/brandable LLLL.com are long since gone, so I think waiting for them all to be taken is rather irrelevant.

The second thing you have to consider is the end-user market. I think the majority of LLLL.com are held by investors, not by end-users, so there is no real indication that an end-user market even exists. So whether they all are taken or not, I believe it would take quite some time for the end-user market to grow to a point where the value of a random LLLL.com increased enough to bat an eye at...

 

[HcDomains]

too many LLLL.com drop everyday.

 

[jasonmjt]

slipxaway:

I completely agree with you regarding the fact that the end user may not see additional value in LLLL.com domains (ie, current and upcoming business owners. I assume that's what you mean by end user.). However, LLL.com domains were not worth their cirrent value couple years ago either. Right now, LLLL.com is basically worth Reg Fee unless it's an actual word, is pronouncable, or abbriviates a company name.

I guess the way I look at it is this; if all the LLLL.com domains are purchased today, it will create instant demand. Demand creates value, so logically the domains would be worth more tha day they are all sold out then they are today. And most domains are bought and sold between investors anyway. So, if an investor buys the remaining LLLL.com domains, I would assume we would see an increase in value of LLLL.com domains as a whole. I would pay more for an unpronouncable LLLL.com domain if I knew there were no LLLL.com domains to purchase through a registrar.

But that's just my opinion. I look forward to more posts.

infoicq:

I agree with that also, but I beleive that is also because people do not currently see the value in them. If they know they were worth more than what it costs to renew, I bet more people would make sure that they don't expire.

 

[accent]

Have you looked at what actually drops down to reg fee? (DYYO.COM) Pretty near everything has a "Q" an "X" or a "Z" these days.

1/26 of the LLL.com value would mean a starting price of over $100. I do think that is realistic - once they are gone there will be a period where those who want a quick profit will flip their names but soon those will be exausted and prices will rise. Once the base price hits say, $50 the investment groups will start accumulating them - I hear BuyDomains has a bunch now.

Unless there is a buyout the projected end of LLLL.COM in the wild, based on the current trend, is Fall of next year.

People let 3 letter .COMs drop all the time. Yes, some let their names (of any kind) go because they do not think they are worth renewing but many drop because the owners die and nobody else understands their value or even know they exist.

 

[jasonmjt]

Great points, accentnepal. I look forward to other peoples opinions.

 

[inspiration100]

No question that these will be worth something on coming years. I, as other people in this thread, use dyyo.com to see whats happening. I've seen a slowdown of registrations, but I would guess within 2 years they will be worth around $50. 3 years, $100+. My own opinion.

 

[tzsxc]

Even though there are alot of 4L.com dropping everyday, we must keep in context the percentage of drops. If you look at the raw number of drops it can be quite dauting. But if you think about it, the rate of drop is less than 1% per month(3000).

I'm not convinced about the fact that 4L.com is held more by speculators. It is much more difficult to hoard the same percentage of 4L.com as opposed to 3L.com. The upkeep is enormous and 4L.com traffic is sporadic. For someone to own 10% of 4L.com is an enormous risk IMO, while the 3L.com market has easily that much in speculators(namepros' thread?).

The 4L.com market is really interesting. On one hand there is definitely value which is undervalued but on the other hand there is just too many of them!

my 2c.

 

[cache]

I would imagine, initially it will be more than reg fee say $12. Then the second year would be $20. Then it will be $30.

 

[floatingworld]

The bottom line for bad combos must be still less than reg fee because if = reg fee then regging the remainder is a near no-brainer....however the value of average combos is now = or > reg fee and prices fetched range from $10 - $30. You need a needle in a haystack now to find any remaining or dropped names of value to reg at reg fee. IMHO there will always be some sludge in the corner of the pool and it is pointless waiting for them all to disappear one day. Some domainers are already paying a premium over reg fee to build their portfolio. The market has moved on.

 

[inspiration100]

The bottom line for bad combos must be still less than reg fee because if = reg fee then regging the remainder is a near no-brainer....however the value of average combos is now = or > reg fee and prices fetched range from $10 - $30. You need a needle in a haystack now to find any remaining or dropped names of value to reg at reg fee. IMHO there will always be some sludge in the corner of the pool and it is pointless waiting for them all to disappear one day. Some domainers are already paying a premium over reg fee to build their portfolio. The market has moved on.

Exactly, so I believe if I understand you are saying it will take a longer period for them to shoot up in price?

 

[Phronesis]

I would imagine, initially it will be more than reg fee say $12. Then the second year would be $20. Then it will be $30.

Add it all up and you have reg fee (assuming $0 revenue).

 

[floatingworld]

Exactly, so I believe if I understand you are saying it will take a longer period for them to shoot up in price?

If you believe that the shooting up in price is dependent on all the names 'disappearing' from straight reg fee then yes to to your question. IMHO the prices are moving up but not as a lowest common denominator. There will I think remain a tail below reg fee for some time to go....................

 

[cache]

yes,
I think now it is even point. Most random names are less than reg fee. The llll.com is better than most random names, you can not lose much if you buy them all.

Add it all up and you have reg fee (assuming $0 revenue).

 

[floatingworld]

yes,
I think now it is even point. Most random names are less than reg fee. The llll.com is better than most random names, you can not lose much if you buy them all.

The random sludge I think has a value of $4 each ie flip value, so you will lose ~ 40-50% of your original outlay if you were to hoover up what is remaining....(tho still a few sleepers of value if you stare hard enough....................)

 

[omnia]

My feeling is that, as in all names, some are more desirable than others. Known acronyms are more desirable than random combos.

 

[warnerms]

Excluding the random cruft that is not an acronym, or abbreviation of a company name?
i.e.
vrhd.com (virtual reality high definition) possible future commercial potential
hdvr.com (high definition virtual reality) future potential
iduq.com (I Don't Understand Quality) probably no present or future potential

Not seeing a lot of bids on 4 letter BIN names on tdnam.com