DAN.com

I don't believe MORE number domains is the answer.

Labeled as opinion in Niche Domain Discussion, started by JayT, Mar 4, 2016

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  1. JayT

    JayT Restricted (85-100%)

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    I have never invested in numbers myself. For what it's worth, I saw opportunity in numbers over 1 year ago! I would of never expected 6N.coms to sell for 1000+ on occasions, or 4N being bought out in practically every extension. I even talked to my dad about domains and he said so himself, numbers looked like an opportunity. He knows practically nothing about domains. He simply said "I'm too old for that *expletive*. I had a similar attitude. I want to enjoy myself, and numbers just didn't interest me, not my MO, leave it at that.

    Domaining is a hobby for me. I'm here to enjoy it. Don't get me wrong though, failure isn't an option. Which is exactly why I'm writing this post for you. I think everyone should re-evaluate what's happening before reg even more numbers.

    I can only rationalize one reason that the hand-reg of numbers MIGHT still be a good idea: If you believe domains will trade like a currency...a way to move money around in a liquid manner. You might hear in the news that a lot of people are really trying to move their money either out of their country or the whole system for that matter. I consider all of this, and still, disagree that domains will be used as such in any remotely mainstream way. There are far better options, which I won't get into.

    I have a long history of studying financial markets going back to my childhood. It is another one of my passions. Because of that I know that one of the most important qualities of money is that: "It retains value without much fluctuation". Money is not an investment, it is a store of value. IF you buy into the "domains as currency", ask yourself: 'When does the market become saturated? When do 7N.com, 5N.ws (or whatever) become the pennies that people don't even bother to pick up?'

    I think domains are best used for what they were designed for: websites. I don't think domains can efficiently serve both purposes. I can't say when or how fast the numbers will fall out of demand, but I see signs already. Just as the numbers momentum right now is driven by a heard mentality, they fall out of style as such, quickly. There are many funny metaphors to describe this phenomena :) It is very easy for you to look at present and assume that the status quo will continue, most people do this, change is scary to them. The reality: when sentiment shifts valuations change erratically rather than than your linear expectations (The herd stops running together and 'scatters').

    Seeing as you hardly know me, you probably want me to answer "WHY will numbers stop going up"... I have answers to that question too, but in the spirit of the internet: "Just trust me:)"
     
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  2. inforg

    inforg Established Member

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    I don't know what the future holds for them, certainly some people will make money with them, but it just isn't something I can get excited about either.

    I view domains a lot like one of my other interests, collectibles. There are a lot of similarities between numerical domains and new extensions and collection crazes like beanie babies or pogs.

    I view keyword .com's as the collectible that has some basic worth and utility and will always come out on top and attract the money when other things crash and burn.

    Things that are hyped or made to be collectible rarely survive the test of time. Like gold age comics, classic stamps, ancient coins or early baseball cards, I'll stick with meaningful .com domains and leave the day trading type stuff to others.
     
  3. JayT

    JayT Restricted (85-100%)

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    There is no way a start-up or personal user is going to pay a 1000% premium for a string of numbers that can be interpreted 10 different ways when there are 100's of extensions to choose from and reg their own! They are not going to get any keywords, seo, or type-ins with a 6N! They are not going to STAND out among millions of other similar domains. Let's not forget, we are domainers because we understand the value of a GOOD domain name. The most valuable collectibles are just that, rare, unique, and MEANINGFUL.

    I'm dying to see how long these "Investors" keep up with renewals while they seek out the 50million end-users needed to buy their snake-oil. Pure speculation! IS this what will save us??? China Traders.JPG
     
  4. brindle123

    brindle123 Top Contributor VIP ★★★★★★★★★★

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    I see value in the the short and easy to remember numeric market, but other than that, it's just . collector/speculators.

    Eventually 7N will be needed in .com like a phone number. That will be a long time off before we need random hard to remember 7n or 8n domains.

    5N domains in other extensions other than .com is a very hard sell and only get bought up due to the numeric .com market being bought out into the 7N and 8n markets.
     
  5. HUKU

    HUKU Established Member

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    Well this may answer part of the question. You do not appear to be interested in them and you have stated above that you do not own them. Where, then, is the incentive for you to understand them?

    The numerics are quite complex because there are certain numbers that are attractive in numerology. Other numbers that have meanings and can have different meanings depending on positioning and placement. Then there are lucky numbers, unlucky numbers, preferred numbers, memorable patterns and so on...

    I think this was predictable and why wouldn't it be? You have end use already for numerics so its easy project forward. If you take out 0, 1 & 4 you have:

    6N: 7 x 7 x 7 x 7 x 7 x 7 = <118k combos
    Far less availability than 4L CHIPs Dot Coms <160k combos

    However, you have to temper that with the fact that:

    (1) 4L CHIPS have potential global application, whereas;
    (2) End Use of numeric CHIPs seems to be a primarily Chinese thing (that may change in the future).

    Agreed but this is an issue of the extension. I have always said that Dot Com should be the focus and one can *maybe* consider Dot Net. I also say that ANY ccTLD is better than any of the new gTLDs by a huge margin.

    Now we're seeing even 7N being registered in many gTLD extensions and there is no end use in sight and that's all about newbies and domainers. It's another bubble and it's predictable that it will crash.

    Well in my opinion, to minimise risk, one should draw the line at 6N CHIPs which is the length of an average Chinese PIN with a limited supply as per above and still shorter than most IP numbers. And if you will participate, then acquire them only in Dot Coms.

    Well I think you're talking about gTLDs and in that case I would say 99% of those are just going to expiry heaven.

    The fact is that they are being used and have been for years (in China) in a mainstream way. Hundreds of millions of chinese are used to numbers since most QQ email addresses are numbers and there is considerable end use for numerics in websites for Chinese and, in the future, potentially in Chinese populated countries. It started from the top of the chain, so billions in marketing money are propelling numerics from the top down in the same way that 2L dot coms started things out for 3L and 4L.

    No-one can predict the future but if we're talking about Dot Coms, CHIPs and we're talking about anything of 6N or less, I don't see that happening for a very long time. There will be bumps along the way, though.

    Well there are a lot of inexperienced newbie domainers out there and too many of them are true believers and "very hopeful". My guess is that they'll hang on and collectively throw tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars down the drain only to leave the industry and swear never to return to domain names. That'll be a shame because it's so easy to make the right decision.
     
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2016
  6. JayT

    JayT Restricted (85-100%)

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    I read that 7 was the longest string of numbers an average human could remember. I do have ONE 8N, which is my only pure number domain...so my first post isn't totally true in saying I have none. I think that letters express more than numbers though, I regret ever registering an 8N, even if I can explain the meaning. I have another number domain, letters mixed in, and don't like that domain neither.

    I think that letters expresses thought more accurately than a sequence of numbers can. I can speak many thousands of words. We learn language a lot earlier than the rationalization of numbers. 1 will never be as specific as I.
     
  7. JayT

    JayT Restricted (85-100%)

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    There are a few 6N/7N 'good pattern' selling for very high, near 10k each. Now, it might sound cynical, but I have doubts on the legitimacy of most these sales. Ideas like this are not taken easily by believers, they'll think I'm some sort of conspiracy theorist, but hear this out...

    It is not beyond reasoning that a group of domainers might have 100,000+ number domains, maybe much more (mostly 6N/7N). Obviously a lot of their domains wouldn't be such 'great' patterns as 8888234 or similar, but they'd have some. They could bid these 'better' domains up to very high amounts among themselves. They stand to gain a lot more on ALL of their domains if they created a false sense of value like this. If 100k domains go up by just $1 each time they'd be making a ton. They would make a few high sales like this everyday with the 'good patterns' while offloading the 'lesser' ones at the same time.

    I know this is a vague explanation and does take some thought to see my point. Most commonly people would argue 'the prices are going up' or 'Chinese love numbers' or 'you don't understand'. To that I say...

    'prices are going up': greater fool theory

    'Chinese love numbers': in reality most Chinese sites are not numbers. I see no reason why numeric domains will become more popular to end-users, but contrary.

    'you don't understand': yes, I don't, which is why this is suspicious.
     
  8. deez007

    deez007 The More I Learn The Less I "Know" VIP

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    I do understand what you are saying but I have some suspicion that domains are going to be used as a second currency sort off... basically to move money around in and out of a country. If or when it gets to a point where domains can be bought and sold with bitcoins...then basically when u sell a domain and have the money stashed in your bitcoing wallet..you basically have money that the taxman wont know about and moving large amount of money out your country will be easier if you doing it via bitcoin.... I mean lets say I sell a domain for $50 000 ... you could tell the buyer to pay you $1000 via Paypal and $49000 into bitcoin... the $1000 into paypal will just be for accounting purposes so you can show the taxman that u sold ur domain for $1000... IF you ever get audited that is... and the other $49 000 would be sitting safely in your bitcoin wallet, tax free...
     

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