poll How much longer will we see big sums being paid for domains?

[domain invest3r]

All,

I have been doing some research recently, particularly on the future of domaining. I have come into this game late and what with the exponential progression of technology I am sure this is a question many of you will have also already pondered on. "How much longer will be see big sums being paid for domain?"

Whilst it is clear that the internet will be an integral part of our lives almost indefinitely (unles you know otherwise!), the value of domains is certainly an area for discussion. Granted they will never cease to exist but their usefulness in the face of emerging tech is a question. How much of an effect on future pricing will the below have for example:

• China and other countries/markets joining
• The infinite multitude of alternative domain extensions now available, watering down the market
• Artificial Intelligence- I recently watched a video by an "internet founding father" who seemed to know his stuff although I am not entirely sure of his credentials, which basically suggests domain names will trend towards being obsolete over the course of the next 5-10 years

Grateful for your thoughts.

I hope the poll works!

DI

 

[ttfan]

I want someone who is extremely professional and some of what helps me narrow down the hundreds of options is their website. If they don't have an online presence then I find someone that does. I can tell from their website 9 times out of 10 if I want them in my house or not.

Yes I agree you can tell from their WEBSITE, but not neccesarily from their domain, which is what we're discussing here.
If their website looks professional, I would not care too much about their domain (or the extension), as long as the domain name is not too bizarre.

 

[domainventure]

As long as you ask for it. Of course subject to it being a good domain, and so forth

"
How much longer will be see big sums being paid for domain?"
DI

 

[Eckhart]

I use my phone, I use my tablet, I use my laptop and I use my desktop.

Just as I was saying in my previous post, new technologies are more likely to become alternatives rather than replace domains.

 

[Kate]

Apps will not replace domain names any time soon.

It's obvious that nobody wants to install an app for every site, especially a first (and possibly last) visit.

It is actually funny that tablets have '.com' on their keyboards whereas it was once speculated that mobile phones would have a .mobi button. Sweet revenge.

 

[domain invest3r]

There are less than 50% of Earth population connected to internet, also internet is still young, so domain prices will go only higher at least for next 20 years.

Hmm this is true but that 50% which is already there is trending towards moving away from .com dependence whilst the other 50% may join them and jump past using .com. This is my fear...

DI

 

[BrandChimp]

It wasn't related to domaining, just how things could change online.. For example, I can make a website display inside a Facebook app. Negating the need for a url.. Just one example.

But your users will need to go on facebook every time they want to access your site. Also, you don't truly own your website if it's in facebook. You must own your website and address to be the master of your online business.

 

[BrandChimp]

I see an opportunity to invest a lot of money in this market. I don't think it is the time to sell yet. Maybe in 2 or 3 years.

 

[bigbagofbricks]

But your users will need to go on facebook every time they want to access your site. Also, you don't truly own your website if it's in facebook. You must own your website and address to be the master of your online business.

It was just an example.. I'm not saying it will happen, just that it could. I only browse about 15 sites daily. That could drop in the future.

 

[mwzd]

Has anyone even seen the 'premium' registration and renewal prices on good ntlds?

It seems $30 minimum annual renewals are the new norm.

And domain prices, even from registrars are $x,xxx PER YEAR.

And in this world you expect prices to come down?

If anything I'd say prices on premium .coms will only go higher.

 

[bigbagofbricks]

When I posted "negating the need for a url", I meant negating the need for a very good one.

And I certainly never suggested that Walmart would be inside Facebook. But the world is moving faster and faster towards a web where a few big websites dominate.

In Vietnam, people use "vatgia" and "tnhvietnam" for products. The businesses they link to don't need to pay for a premium domain since people just click a link. More and more companies here are only using facebook as well.

But even in New York, a hotel won't really need a good domain. Tripadvisor and Yelp give a link. So I guess I don't see much of a future where "manhattanhotel dot com" has any value. An example on Sedo.. spamanhattan dot com for $79k. How much will that be worth when none of their traffic comes from having those keywords in their domain and all of their business comes from SEO and sites that rate recreation / businesses. As for business cards, Spa Manhattan is a pretty awful name for a business catering to luxury.

I see the value for those keyword domains names falling. One word domains, good brandables and whatever is happening with China will always be valuable but things like "londonrestaurant dot com" or "hotelinlondon dot com" ($55k on Sedo) will never be bought for big premiums by end users in a future where nobody types the link and Google doesn't care what your site is called. When I google stuff, I glance at the domain to see if I recognize it but it's mostly irrelevant to me.

 

[artstar]

Are domains gong to be gone? Will apps (or Facebook app) or something else replace them?

No!

I'll come back to that statement in 30 years and bet it's still accessed via "NamePros.com"!


The internet is vastly bigger in complexity than what is being suggested and discussed. And neither Facebook nor Google or anyone else as a single entity will "take over" this global and shared structure. They do not define it, even by marketing and providing some amazing option, they are still just a part of it.


It's this simple:
We will always need a unique identifier to access devices and resources on the internet.

Currently we use IP address, and domain names to map to IP addresses for our comfort.

This could be changed, it could be replaced by something else. However, factoring in the absolute necessity for unique identifiers, essentially to be able to say "I want that one", what could such a simple identifier be?

Is there anything better or more simple to easily identify something than "words" - aka domain names? No, I don't believe there is

(Well, numbers if you are Chinese, but that's still a domain name :D)


And I believe, therefore, that "big sums" will always be paid for domain names. More businesses start up every day. I don't think this venture is going anywhere at all






How would (eg) Asda/Walmart's entire product catalogue (tens of thousands of items) go through a 3rd party (Facebook) app? It's not practical. Facebook do not have access to the company's database so they'd essentially just be a forwarder. What is the point or benefit of a forwarder? Even with Facebook APIs, wouldn't Asda/Walmart have their own app?

Smaller, tiny business might use this instead of a website/domain name of their own, but I doubt this will affect much domain name trade.


As for a takeover and remove the need for URLs, this isn't going to happen even in Facebook's wildest wettest dreams.



Can apps take away our need for domain names

Moving on from Facebook and just "apps in general":

Apps have less functionality than browsers, and always will based on their nature.
Apps link directly to the apps owner, such as Asda/Walmart app, Dominos app (hmm...), with no where to type in a domain name, if you could type a domain name into an app, then it's a browser not an app.

So if apps took over there would be no domain names, but then, to be able to state "I want that one", we'd need the app from the website we want to browse, right?

So, instead of domain names to state which resource we want, we'd have an app for every website, in the world? Nah.

We only use apps for the major sites or ones we frequent, they cannot replace browsers, and browsers need some kind of unique indentifier/URL, and again, domain names/words seem to be better than anything.

Domain names are safe!




And be replaced with what? Can you tell us the name of the video or some info so we can see it?

Head & Shoulders have been telling us all for years we should use their product or we'll get dandruff - "Hey, you don't have dandruff" - "Exactly".

But, I don't use Head & shoulders, and don't have dandruff... Just because I'm a blazing mad rebel.

Sorry, but I need to have some info before even contemplating what this might be about. Especially "within 5-10 years". This is nonsense. Such mammoth things do not change that quickly these days as too much depends on it all.

Seriously, imagine right now telling every business, web designer, developer, server admin, registrar, forum, blog owner, search engine, and many more, that "In 5-10 years you won't use a domain name".
Do you have any idea the sort of planning that would take, and how many people would be involved across the globe?

Hell, it took many years to even begin to get business to go over to IPv6, and that was an infinitely simple operation compared to "no more URLs or domain names".


Domain names are going nowhere.


Some scientist or philosopher is always going on about "something" that's going to come along and change the world, the planet, or the internet, and let's face it, the millions of huge predictions people churn out never happen 99.999% of the time.
It's mostly marketing hype, or someone trying to make/remake a name for themselves. That said, it would be interesting to know the source of this "everything is going to change and domains obsolete".





Ranking order? I see we have different ideals. I'd be hoping for 20 shoes strewn around my bedroom

Who created the internet ?? Who created google? Who created Facebook? The same entity controls it all!

 

[james haw]

Who created the internet ??

What do you mean by "internet" specifically? The original protocols? The idea of packets or their transfer between two points?

The current internet is a humongous global network which exists due to hundreds of thousands of people, companies, and governments. No-one person, group, or company created what we have today.

Who created google?
Who created Facebook?

These questions are also ambiguous. The original idea, scripts, company?

The discussion is about future value of domain names and the potential replacement of them. I don't see how two websites have any bearing on that

The same entity controls it all!

Which entity is that?


No-one owns the internet as it's not "one single thing". However there are bodies and groups who govern its progress and propose and plan changes and improvements. But, there are many.

And none of this matters. The internet is a network with devices which needs a unique identifier, and as said, what better identifier for us is there than words or domain names? Which is the discussion. I cannot see how a collection of devices like the internet could ever not need unique identifiers of some kind.

I cannot predict the future, and something may come up which changes everything, and I'll say "Oh, that's interesting". But I'm not sure what, as there will always need to be identifiers when there are a choice of resources to be obtained.

 

[bigbagofbricks]

A business that relies only on tripadvisor/yelp/fb etc. for its traffic and lets its clients to find it and its content only via third parties has no future.

If you needed to get dry cleaning done tomorrow where you live, how would you decide where to go?

Or if you were going to visa Prague.. Would you type "hotels dot prague", "hotels in prague dot com" or "tripadvisor dot com"?

I don't think businesses that survive of tripadvisor or yelp have no future.. I've been to a lot of places in the last five years and always use sites like tripadvisor etc. I know not to google and get stung by a bad hotel or restaurant with the best SEO.

 

[Recons.Com]

If I need hotels in Prague, I'll go to marriott.com, hyatt.com, hilton.com...

 

[bigbagofbricks]

Well you should start looking at tripadvisor and you're in the minority. The Hilton and Marriot come in well down the list for best 5 star hotels in Prague.

 

[mwzd]

How does any of what you say make you think domains will become cheaper?

In fact the gist of what you're saying is that prices - reg and renewal will increase, which is what I'm saying.

As for .tv, I never bought anything with a premium renewal, wouldn't in a ntld either.

 

[alcy]

there was atime internet did not exist, there will be a time when internet will not exist.

like every other single thing in history. especially tecchnologically speaking.

it's just called progress and evolution.

but ... it's not going to be tomorrow.

 

[RU]

1 WORD and short .COM'S WILL ALWAYS BE KING.

how are you going to compete with domains like Cars.com, Z.com, Insurance.com.

the new extensions will have value but nothing in comparison to the best .com domains.

vine.co
Rank in United States

553

 

[DU]

How does any of what you say make you think domains will become cheaper?

In fact the gist of what you're saying is that prices - reg and renewal will increase, which is what I'm saying.

As for .tv, I never bought anything with a premium renewal, wouldn't in a ntld either.

I didn't say they would become cheaper. I was just saying that the registration costs of nTLDs have little comparative value for the .com market. The OP is talking about BIG SUMS so we can presume he means .COM in general (right?). Premium fees are fundamentally no different to "investor fees" or "squatting fees" (if you're not nice).

I don't see that a $30 renewal will suddenly mean that a current $50,000 name won't be worth $30,000 or $100,000 in 3 years... the factors I think are involved are very simple and clear. It's based on ROI, Vanity, or Foolishness. The immediate ROI will mostly be impacting on the spending power of, well, fiat money.

I think the fabric of the internet will fundamentally change in the next 10 years. I can't predict if naming will be an issue but I can't help wonder if the requirement for a unique name will work in the same way. One of the changes that I can see happening is a transition to management system that spreads the cost more equitably and builds more management into a "DNS" system while operating in a more transparent and decentralized way.

The old hierarchical system is arguably fine at the moment but the "left of the dot" principal is tired and antiquated and a mismatch with how people interact in real life.

Do I know the answer? No. Will I be wrong? Probably =)

 

[RU]

If I need hotels in Prague, I'll go to marriott.com, hyatt.com, hilton.com...

I type "hotels" or "booking" into google and click on the first result.

 

[domain invest3r]

I didn't say they would become cheaper. I was just saying that the registration costs of nTLDs have little comparative value for the .com market. The OP is talking about BIG SUMS so we can presume he means .COM in general (right?). Premium fees are fundamentally no different to "investor fees" or "squatting fees" (if you're not nice).

I don't see that a $30 renewal will suddenly mean that a current $50,000 name won't be worth $30,000 or $100,000 in 3 years... the factors I think are involved are very simple and clear. It's based on ROI, Vanity, or Foolishness. The immediate ROI will mostly be impacting on the spending power of, well, fiat money.

I think the fabric of the internet will fundamentally change in the next 10 years. I can't predict if naming will be an issue but I can't help wonder if the requirement for a unique name will work in the same way. One of the changes that I can see happening is a transition to management system that spreads the cost more equitably and builds more management into a "DNS" system while operating in a more transparent and decentralized way.

The old hierarchical system is arguably fine at the moment but the "left of the dot" principal is tired and antiquated and a mismatch with how people interact in real life.

Do I know the answer? No. Will I be wrong? Probably =)

Thanks for your input DU, your posts are very insightful and helpful. Can I ask what you mean by the left of the dot principal?

Also, I completely agree with your point on the need for a unique name gradually dissipating. For me the question is when/how and not so much if to be honest.

DI

 

[DOMAIN ILLUMINATI]

How much longer will we see big sums being paid for domains?
As long as there are big domains!

 

[domain invest3r]

How much longer will we see big sums being paid for domains?
As long as there are big domains!

Agreed but how much longer will that demand last?

DI

 

[Omar Negron]

I'm not sure when big sums won't be offered for domain names. Honestly, no body really knows. What you should focus on is what is selling now, what is valuable now and what could potentially be valuable in the future.

Artificial Intelligence- I recently watched a video by an "internet founding father" who seemed to know his stuff although I am not entirely sure of his credentials, which basically suggests domain names will trend towards being obsolete over the course of the next 5-10 years

This is interesting and I am actually working on an interview on this exact topic (artificial intelligence that is)....good stuff

-Omar

 

[domain invest3r]

I'm not sure when big sums won't be offered for domain names. Honestly, no body really knows. What you should focus on is what is selling now, what is valuable now and what could potentially be valuable in the future.



This is interesting and I am actually working on an interview on this exact topic (artificial intelligence that is)....good stuff

-Omar

Thanks for the reply Omar. This is true, but the impact on the 'long term hold' domains are what I am particularly looking at.

Re the AI interview- cool, I look forward to this. I think that it is only diligent to anticipate the next moves in the domain industry and a consideration of the impact AI will have on it will be key...

DI