poll How much longer will we see big sums being paid for domains?

[domain invest3r]

All,

I have been doing some research recently, particularly on the future of domaining. I have come into this game late and what with the exponential progression of technology I am sure this is a question many of you will have also already pondered on. "How much longer will be see big sums being paid for domain?"

Whilst it is clear that the internet will be an integral part of our lives almost indefinitely (unles you know otherwise!), the value of domains is certainly an area for discussion. Granted they will never cease to exist but their usefulness in the face of emerging tech is a question. How much of an effect on future pricing will the below have for example:

• China and other countries/markets joining
• The infinite multitude of alternative domain extensions now available, watering down the market
• Artificial Intelligence- I recently watched a video by an "internet founding father" who seemed to know his stuff although I am not entirely sure of his credentials, which basically suggests domain names will trend towards being obsolete over the course of the next 5-10 years

Grateful for your thoughts.

I hope the poll works!

DI

 

[alcy]

i dunno what youve been reading but prices of now valuable domains are not going down to any extent that would be worth mentioning in future

 

[garptrader]

I have seen numerous businesses and online channels operating without a domain name but merely using social accounts at either Facebook, Youtube or even Twitter to promote their online presence. However, my largest sale this year (in one of my worst years since I started in domaining) was to a company which merely redirected the domain to their Youtube channel.

 

[hookbox]

Why would you need to memorize either?

Branding is everything. If I see a company on the road with great branding I would choose them over hundreds of others in the exact same business. If that company has a generic company name like Bobs Plumbing and I searched for them on Google how would I know which Bobs Plumbing I saw? Reason being there is BobsPlumbing.com, Bobsplumbingandheatinginc.com, BobsPlumbingServices.com, BobsPlumbingInc.com, BobsPlumbing.net, BobsPlumbingandHeating.biz, BobsInstantPlumbing.net and on and on........

No confusion if they have a memorable domain name that can easily be recalled.

 

[hookbox]

Yes I agree you can tell from their WEBSITE, but not neccesarily from their domain, which is what we're discussing here.
If their website looks professional, I would not care too much about their domain (or the extension), as long as the domain name is not too bizarre.

I know what we're discussing here. I was referring to what DU said in point #3 below. That is why I mentioned the website.

(3) Most of the dealings I have with companies on a local basis have ZERO dependence on their website (I had a job done by a plumber last month and I don't even know if they have a website)

 

[Templr]

You make some fair points.

• Large sums for top names should start seeing a reality check, with not-com alternatives that yield good SEO becoming more visible. The price of the not-com could rise from the 2-5% of the .com with the fall? IMO

• Virtual Reality 2015 is virtually here. To be the great encompassing force surrounding our Internet, I would give it 30 years.

• The domain is the digital address required to locate, at best branded resources, etc.

• The App, of course was never to replace the domain, and it never will. The App is developed for mobile because mobile technology is behind laptops/desktops and an application is required to use online.

The App is useful on mobile but there are too many. On can't have 100-200 Apps on you phone so what is next? Cards?

Deep usage of the Internet via Mobile has many draw backs and as mobiles are becoming bigger (again) and as technology develops, the App could disappear!

 

[Recons.Com]

1. Business/projects/people need a way to show specific address to their content/info and URL is the only proper way to do it.
2. .com and few other extensions will have their premium designation for either whole world or specific market or both and their desirability and prices will go up faster than the rest. The rest will get some of the benefit of "trickling down".
3. apps, seo etc. cannot replace good name for your business, they can only compliment it. They depend too much on third parties (android/appstore/google/bing blocking/downgrading your content could mean an end of that channel

 

[Tytus]

The only way domain prices are going down is global collapse / recession or WWIII

 

[DOMAIN ILLUMINATI]

How much longer will we see big sums being paid for Domains?

As long as the (open) internet will exist.

 

[Eckhart]

"How much longer will be see big sums being paid for domain?"

Another point I'd like to make is that this question sounds like the big sums are somehow unreasonable or inflated, which cannot be further away from the truth. This is not a bubble. The bubble ended in 2001-2002, right now we are dealing with the real value of domain names.

 

[Recons.Com]

.mobi would have had a chance if
1) it was .mob
2) it priced itself just under .com
3) it provided for free some software/designs/interface etc. for mobile version of normal website

And it should have acted quick to get critical mass before m.website.com became default instead of website.mobi and later on website.com just detected mobile device and changed the look to render .mobi completely obsolete.

 

[BrandChimp]

1 WORD and short .COM'S WILL ALWAYS BE KING.

how are you going to compete with domains like Cars.com, Z.com, Insurance.com.

the new extensions will have value but nothing in comparison to the best .com domains.

I remember the war between AMD and intel. Gamers used to say AMD will always be the king for playing pc games. I still think .com for the win

 

[Eckhart]

I still think .com for the win

Haha change your shirt before you say that

 

[offersity]

The way I look at this is more or less like the car market.

Gasoline powered cars are here to stay for years to come, but their market is definitely challenged by the growing 'new' tech like hybrid and electric and also hydrogen.

Long time ago they tried to push electric car to the market and they failed. These days they come up with better offerings and the market is definitely readier.

They did the same thing within the domain industry, they introduced info, biz and us just 15 years ago and all failed terribly.

I guess if the dotcom had the staying power of the tire industry, than investing in new tlds would probably be a waste of time.

 

[BrandChimp]

Haha change your shirt before you say that

.XYZ will beat .net :p

and it's a great competitor to .com
When you can't get the .com you want you can still afford a .XYZ

 

[Recons.Com]

When I posted "negating the need for a url", I meant negating the need for a very good one.

And I certainly never suggested that Walmart would be inside Facebook. But the world is moving faster and faster towards a web where a few big websites dominate.

In Vietnam, people use "vatgia" and "tnhvietnam" for products. The businesses they link to don't need to pay for a premium domain since people just click a link. More and more companies here are only using facebook as well.

But even in New York, a hotel won't really need a good domain. Tripadvisor and Yelp give a link. So I guess I don't see much of a future where "manhattanhotel dot com" has any value. An example on Sedo.. spamanhattan dot com for $79k. How much will that be worth when none of their traffic comes from having those keywords in their domain and all of their business comes from SEO and sites that rate recreation / businesses. As for business cards, Spa Manhattan is a pretty awful name for a business catering to luxury.

I see the value for those keyword domains names falling. One word domains, good brandables and whatever is happening with China will always be valuable but things like "londonrestaurant dot com" or "hotelinlondon dot com" ($55k on Sedo) will never be bought for big premiums by end users in a future where nobody types the link and Google doesn't care what your site is called. When I google stuff, I glance at the domain to see if I recognize it but it's mostly irrelevant to me.

A business that relies only on tripadvisor/yelp/fb etc. for its traffic and lets its clients to find it and its content only via third parties has no future.

 

[DU]

If I need hotels in Prague, I'll go to marriott.com, hyatt.com, hilton.com...

You'd also be paying more than you should.

Has anyone even seen the 'premium' registration and renewal prices on good ntlds?
It seems $30 minimum annual renewals are the new norm.
And domain prices, even from registrars are $x,xxx PER YEAR.
And in this world you expect prices to come down?
If anything I'd say prices on premium .coms will only go higher.

Seems you've lost your .TV hat ! You know the one where everyone in .TV land talked about how Premiums held everything back

You also know that these prices are listed because they are listed. You also know that these are likely negotiable. You also can't ignore the fact that some TLDs are free, under $2 etc.

I don't think there's a lot of difference between a registry wanting X,XXX and a domainer wanting X,XXX if it was freely available. If renewals continue to increase I'm sure the relative number of investors would decrease making names more available... it's all a very weird supply / demand situation and will probably get weirder.

You can see changes in a micro level with GoDaddy coupon changes. One of the .com arguments is the contractual price controls that are in place that run counter to the gTLDS. It's going to just get weirder imho.

 

[domain invest3r]

Sorry- could a mod please help me insert a poll on this (I thought clicking submit would take me to a further page to choose poll options)

DI

 

[bigbagofbricks]

i dunno what youve been reading but prices of now valuable domains are not going down to any extent that would be worth mentioning in future

It wasn't related to domaining, just how things could change online.. For example, I can make a website display inside a Facebook app. Negating the need for a url.. Just one example.

 

[domain invest3r]

i dunno what youve been reading but prices of now valuable domains are not going down to any extent that would be worth mentioning in future

Thanks for the input alcy. It is not so much something I have read but more a look at the logical progression of things.

Do you not think perhaps there is a chance that the need for a good domain name will be superseded by the willingness of a search engine to grant domains the prevalence they currently have on search results? For example, won't .COMs fall in value the moment wider acceptance of the extensions occur?

Whilst we are seeing action, it is numeric and short domains, pointing towards a shift in paradigm. Or maybe I am just talking loopy?!

 

[domain invest3r]

Could someone help me put a poll on this thread. Would love to get a rounded view from the whole forum. Options would be:

• 1-5 years
• 6-10 years
• 10-15 years
• forever

 

[alcy]

Could someone help me put a poll on this thread. Would love to get a rounded view from the whole forum. Options would be:

• 1-5 years
• 6-10 years
• 10-15 years
• forever

uneed to create new posrt with poll
cheers

 

[DU]

Next time you're driving down the road and see a plumbers truck try to memorize the phone number and the website address. Later on try to recall both. .

Why would you need to memorize either?

 

[domain invest3r]

There are less than 50% of Earth population connected to internet, also internet is still young, so domain prices will go only higher at least for next 20 years.

Hope so!

 

[domain invest3r]

I believe the biggest challenge the domain investor faces is that generally speaking the potential buyers of domain names (small business owners, developers, executives with purchase authority) do not place much value on branding via a domain name. So while these businesses will spend thousands and thousands of dollars on online marketing, travel, professional services, website development and other IT costs, executive bonuses, the thought of spending more than $XX for a domain name seems like extortion. Attempts to market a domain name to a targeted end user are often viewed as spam. Since there are more than 100 million .COM registrations, the end user attempts to add extra words or abbreviations or hyphens or numbers or maybe use an alternative extension to come up with something which is available. The launch of hundreds of new TLDs will give such tight-fisted end users more options. That does not mean investing in those new extensions will generate favorable results. As long as the potential buyer can still get creative to avoid having to pay more than $30 for a domain, they are not as likely to open their wallet for an aftermarket domain.

That is until there is a seismic shift in end user value placed on branding via domain names.

Will we see a massive shift in the value placed on branding using domain names in the next few years (given it has not happened as of 2015)?

Thanks- completely agree with all of this. There are many variables to the question of whether .COM will remain king or indeed whether domains in general will remain a holder of value for some time to come. Would be interested to hear more views on this.

DI

 

[ttfan]

Three quick points:

(1) You're confusing branding with domain names.
(2) I carry an instant memorization device with me at all times (almost).
(3) Most of the dealings I have with companies on a local basis have ZERO dependence on their website (I had a job done by a plumber last month and I don't even know if they have a website)



Yes. Many Companies advertise their brands. The relationship of brand to domain varies VASTLY depending on the type and scope of their needs. More often than not, the need is vastly overstated by domainers who tend focus their attention to national/international brands which biases their understanding.



Yes and no. What you say is true; however, the brand is often greater than domain and they are NOT the same thing.

To answer the question in the OP.
Domains will always have value dependent on the same three factors that exist today:

1) Marketing return on investment
2) Vanity
3) Whether you can find idiots with more money than sense.

The likelihood is that (1) will reduce over time but (2) and (3) sometimes seem to have limitless potential.

Fantastic post DU, I agree completely!!!