question How much do you think the price of 4 letters .com domains go up in 10 years?

[AnyDemo]

Hi,

I am keeping two four letters .com domains for some years. I wish to sell them if the prices are good. I have no any idea how much can I sell now.

However I am also thinking if the prices of the domains will be going up if I keep them for longer (e.g. 10 years).

Could somebody help to take a rough guess how much the four letters .com domain will go up in 10 years?

Best regards

Alex

 

[DubDubDubDot]

I can't see how a handful of random LLLLs are a good long term hold.

IMO it is highly unlikely that they will increase in value over a 10 year period at a rate higher than the cost of renewal.

This is of course talking about reseller values. An end user could come along at any time (or never), but the people who play that game tend to have a large LLLL portfolio to increase the chances of hooking an end user that can pull the portfolio (or part of it) out of the red.

Don't forget that the LLLL frenzy was orchestrated by a group of domainers whose goal was to buy up all remaining LLLL, hype LLLL and then sell them to fellow domainers at a profit. There was no real substance to the increase in value. End user demand was exactly the same before and after the buyout. A company called Our Name Goes Here that wants ONGH doesn't care that HPQS, IWVZ, OWHJ, etc... are all gone. The status of every other LLLL is totally irrelevant to them. So "But LLLL is sold out!" held no water except among domainer to domainer sales, and domainers eventually woke up to realize this.

 

[labrocca]

Factor in your renewals costs and maybe you'll make $50 after 10 years.

 

[SiberForum]

I suppose the price will depend on the domain name first of all not on what how letters it consist of.

 

[snoop]

I think the return will be poor. The reg fees are significantly higher than what the bad ones are even worth.

 

[anne.lee]

I think different organizations have diverse packages for domain offer. This domain offer can be for 10 year or so on.

 

[AnyDemo]

Hi all,

Factor in your renewals costs and maybe you'll make $50 after 10 years.

Thanks for your comments. It seems that the return is very poor.

Here's my rough calculation:

Expect average domain renewal fee for the next 10 years: USD15.00

Domain domain renewal fee: USD150.00
Total domain renewal fee: USD150.00 x2 = USD300.00
Expected profit: USD50.00
-------------------------------
Total return (10 years): 17%
===============================

Annual return in Simple Interest Mode: 1.7%

If calculate in Compund Interest Mode, the annual return should be less than 0.8%.

Moreover I already keeping the two domains for 6 years. I already spent USD120.00 (USD10.00 x 6 x 2 = USD120.00). That is I will lost USD70.00 (USD120.00 - USD50.00) to invest the two domains for 16 years!!!

It seems that I should sell all domain immediately. Moreover I will never invest my money on any domains.

Luckily I sold one 3 letters domains at USD30.00 two years ago and sold many 4 letters domains at about USD25.00 last years. Otherwise I will lost a lot of money.

Best regards

Alex

 

[snoop]

It seems that I should sell all domain immediately. Moreover I will never invest my money on any domains.

Luckily I sold one 3 letters domains at USD30.00 two years ago and sold many 4 letters domains at about USD25.00 last years. Otherwise I will lost a lot of money.

The problem in my view is the domains chosen. Look for something with real capital value. With low quality LLLL.com's the odds are stacked against you because the holding costs are so high. $8 to renew a $500 domain is totally different to $8 to renew a domain worth $4.

 

[RicoShay]

Luckily I sold one 3 letters domains at USD30.00 two years ago and sold many 4 letters domains at about USD25.00 last years.

You mean 30,000 USD not 30.00 USD right? Or is that meant to 3,000?

I think I started domaining seriously around the time when the LLLL.com's were starting to gain momentum... I didn't buy any until just after the "buy-out" and even then I'd bought 15-20 and sold half within the first few months.

I held a few with the hope of prices rising again - but as many discovered before me, it wasn't worth holding them long-term.

Now, saying that... we don't know your names, maybe they are valuable and not just some average random letters?! Without knowing, I don't wanna say 'get rid of them'... but I'm sure you'll be able to find ways of gauging a rough idea of current prices by taking a wonder around the forum and sites like namebio.

 

[InternetMoney]

Seems some of you are pessimistic on domain values. 4L domains have some value do to the limited number of them, however, it really matters what the letters are. Its possible that any 4 letters can be in demand some day if it becomes a name of a business, a name of a product or service or an expression like TGIF.

It's true about the reg fees. Its best to have higher value domains so the cost of the reg means less. Reg fees are a low cost to hold a domain. You can also create a web site with it to gain some revenue from it. Be creative and make a site that sounds like it makes sense for your 4 letters.

Domains that make sense seem under valued to me and I think they will rise at a good rate for a number of years.

Before all the 4 letter domains were taken I looked at the ones left and took one that I liked and will keep it.

 

[wot]

I think it could be easily determined by how long a piece of string is. :gl:

 

[zero_haze_au]

Hi all,
Luckily I sold one 3 letters domains at USD30.00 two years ago

U are having us all on, right?

 

[kwdn]

If the four-letters are pronounceable, like CVCV.com, I'd keep them,
as I can develop/brand them for my own sites even if they're not sold.

If they'are just random 4-letters, they may not worth the renewal fees in the long run.


.

 

[matrigaldo]

As kwdn says, a pronounceable LLLL in VCVC.com or CVCV.com format worths the keeping.

Otherwise, i would try to sell them within the expiration.

 

[accent]

There are a couple (very long) LLLL.com threads in the short domain section that would have given a very different answer to you.

If you bought the LLLL.coms 6 years ago then they might be very nice ones. Domains containing only these letters: A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H,I,L,M,N,O,P,R,S,T
are called all-premium and start priced at $100 and go up from there. Pronouncable domains or names consisting of Consonants and Vowels in the pattern CVCV.com are worth hundreds, or often thousands of dollars.

Three letter .com domains are worth several thousand dollars each. If you sold one for $30 then you did not get market value. Mixed numbers and letters are worth much less - a couple hundred for three characters, no value for most four.

You should be paying about $8 for your renewals, although prices go up 50 cents July 1. See the Godaddy coupon thread for even better prices.

There has always been demand for LLLL.coms, stories of a domainer scam to buy out the sector are overblown. Those invested in other categories often line up to pan LLLL.com investments, usually concentrating on the lowest quality - names containing two or more J,K,Q,U,V,W,X,Y,Z. By slamming the lowest quarter of LLLL.com domains the nay-sayers try to smear the entire sector.

Fact is that much of this is opinion. Nay-sayer opinion is based on a domain industry formerly dominated by Pay-Per-Click advertising returns. My opinion is that the focus of the market has shifted to End-User sales, a very different animal.

The internet is rapidly growing, including mobile, and the growth is expect to continue for a long time - ten years is a good guess. And four letter domains are well suited to mobile computing. Short domains are easier to type on small keyboards.

In other words, the floor (lowest quality domains that get end-user sales) is rising rapidly and will continue to do so for quite a while. Domains of little value will be heavily sought after in a few years.

The supply of domains is almost infinite, certainly most worthless domains will not gain value, but there is a limit on the number of LLLL.com - and they are all currently owned, even in this recession. The "moving floor" of domain values will easily pass the bottom LLLL.coms in the next few years if the world economy improves.

I suggest that your six year old LLLL.coms are probably pretty good ones, and that regardless of their current value they are worth holding. Better domains are better to hold, of course, but I expect all LLLL.coms to outperform most traditional investments over the next ten years.


~~~~~~~~~~~~
Disclaimer - the above poster owns a number of LLLL domains, including a few that would currently be considered "low quality".

 

[owntype]

RegFee x 10 +

 

[mrjohn]

Inflation adjustment and no more. 4L .coms have been mined out for all the good ones. So, the remainders will stay relatively static in value after adjusting for inflation. And you never see the good ones on the market.

If I were to bet generically on any short domains, it would probably be brandable 6L.coms. Even then, I think the every domain purchaser is savvy enough explore other options besides paying for an over-priced .com. And most domainers don't have sense enough to come down on price.

 

[biggie]

Hi,

I am keeping two four letters .com domains for some years. I wish to sell them if the prices are good. I have no any idea how much can I sell now.

However I am also thinking if the prices of the domains will be going up if I keep them for longer (e.g. 10 years).

Could somebody help to take a rough guess how much the four letters .com domain will go up in 10 years?

Best regards

Alex

Hi

the best way to gauge the future of domains is to look in the past


the fact that you are looking 10yrs ahead is very good, as a GREAT majority of domainers only look at today's value.

which is why they typically undersell themselves.

if you take a llll.com that could sell for $80 today, means price should be at least$800 ten years from now

by example, look at the price of 3 character .com's. they went from from reg fee in 2000, and now prices range $$$ to $,$$$.

if you renew it for 10yrs today it may only cost you an additional $80.

so, if you paid $80 for the domain and renewed it for 10 yrs at a cost of $8 per, total cost is $160.

in 2020, if you sold it for anything above $160, it would be a profit.



this is called long term roi


imo...

 

[Archangel]

I like the thinking of ppl in this thread. A lot of these responses are pretty well thought out. But to answer your question: No one could possibly make a logical, educated guess, no matter how hard they tried or what data they use to justify their answers.

The trickiest thing about domains is their unpredictability. Some kinda of domain ie a LLL.com has an 'inherited' value, a minimum base that one considers to be the norm for the type. If you had a random LLL.com, for example, it's putative that the domain is worth at least around $3,500.

Was it foreseeable that they'd get to the $x,xxx mark? By most, no. This time 10 years ago, it wouldn't have been assumed to net the $8,000 they typically hovered around pre-Recession. I saw a thread here about 5 or so years ago that had a load of LLL.nets on sale for about $65 each. If the seller knew they'd have been worth so much today, I doubt he'd have sold them so cheap.

A few years ago, I saw a guy on eBay selling L-L.coms for ONE DOLLAR EACH! You read that right -- far under reg fee. Try getting one for reg fee now. I feel jaded like mad that I didn't buy the dozens he had for sale @ $1 each.

So you see, ten years is a long time to speculate on.

There are a few things you can keep in mind, however, that could give you an idea. There are more LLLL combination than there are LLL and thus there are more LLLL's in this world than LLL. Logic states that by sheer volume, there are many more valuable LLLL's than LLL's and the same for worthless LLLL's. This isn't to say there are higher-value LLLL's than LLL; I'm only speaking of the fact that there are more valuable LLLL's out there. Your definition of 'valuable' might differ from mine but I'm sure they're in he same vein: Yielding a high ROI.

There are 3 classes of letters: Premium, middle and anti-premium. Search the net if you want to verify this claim but the most used letters in English and the most sought-after:

A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, L, M, N, O, P, R, S, T

Letters that are used less and are NOT premium but are considered decent:

J, K, U, V, W

And the anti-premium letters:

Q, X, Y, Z

If your domain has all premiums or 3 premiums and a 'middle' domain, it would more than likely be worth holding on to. OR if your domain is grammatically pronounceable (something that can be pronounced according to English grammar) or if it has a consonant/vowel pattern, then you have a keeper.

Good domains:
DERO.com (Grammatically pronounceable and CVCV and quad premium)
ARES.com (Grammatically pronounceable and quad premium)
APIL.com (Grammatically pronounceable and quad premium)
RECK.com(Grammatically pronounceable and triple premium plus a 'middle' premium)

Bad:
XEWQ.com (2 anti-premiums, 1 middle)
SEQL.com (Some might say it is pronounced like see-cool but grammatically, it doesn't)

There are many factors into it but if you have a good LLLL.com, then you should definitely hold it; otherwise, drop it. Again, looking at proportions, there are many LLLL's out there and the odds that they'll all be bought out and STAY bought out (like the LLL.com's) aren't good. But will there be a LLLL.com buyout that holds? You don't know. I don't. NOBODY knows. No one believed CCC.com's would ever be bought out but look at what happened. Domaining is a fickle thing, an art form in itself. We can't say what'll happen in 10 years' time. All we can do is speculate and see what happens. But it's best to play the safest cards unless you have a grand budget and are not afraid of a potentially massive loss.

 

[snoop]

if you take a llll.com that could sell for $80 today, means price should be at least$800 ten years from now

by example, look at the price of 3 character .com's. they went from from reg fee in 2000, and now prices range $$$ to $,$$$.

Why should it be worth $800? that is just a guess rather than something based on logic.

With regard to 3 character.com's we had a huge boom in the domain industry since then. Even still to have registered a name in 2000 and held it till today the average domainer would have spent perhaps $100-$150 on renewals. Regaistrations were not $8 in the year 2000. They've made money but it is not as easy as is made out here.

 

[Archangel]

Agreed. $800 is just guesswork. LongUnsiightlyAndMisspelledDomain.net was worth reg fee in 2000 and is likely worth reg fee today.

Why should it be worth $800? that is just a guess rather than something based on logic.

 

[snoop]

The trickiest thing about domains is their unpredictability. Some kinda of domain ie a LLL.com has an 'inherited' value, a minimum base that one considers to be the norm for the type. If you had a random LLL.com, for example, it's putative that the domain is worth at least around $3,500.

Was it foreseeable that they'd get to the $x,xxx mark? By most, no.

Agree, I can't recall anyone expecting those gains, they were a nice positive surprise. For those who just think the same thing will repeat, that is very unlikely.

It is a bit like the people who went around saying LLL.com was recession proof a couple of years ago (early 2008) and would never fall because they never had previously. Things generally don't turn out as planned and as it turned out the market decided these names were grossly overpriced.

There is lots of alternatives for the future aside from the sharp rises that some expect,

eg

-moderate growth over the longer term
-no long term growth
-long term falls

There is no rules here. But I wouldn't want to be holding names than need to increase by 100% in a year just to beak even which is the situation with low quality LLLL.com. Personally though I think the days of really sharp rises in the domain market that we saw from 2002-2007 are over. If/when growth comes back it would be more moderate in my view because the market had matured alot. Each boom and bust seems to get more moderate, then again who knows.

 

[DomainTalker]

There is no rules here.

I agree with much of what you said in that post, snoop.

And four letter domains are well suited to mobile computing. Short domains are easier to type on small keyboards.

Good point about mobile....and the advantage of short domains, accent.


If we're in this game, we're all probably at least slightly a betting person....Despite all the metrics, and all the analysis, and all the experience, in the end, speculative investment is a large part of domaining. We place our bets. No crystal balls here.


Any random seletion of LLLL letters (premium, or not) would be shooting for a lucky end user break, imo.....Or, at best, a relatively small profit to a reseller, if the market moves up for them.


But, as has been pointed out, I'd say dictionary word LLLL.com's, and some selected pronouncables, would be a good hold over the next few years....These domains are even rarer...They're short, + they say something....Good profits may be a lower risk on these, imo.

.

 

[Chris Hydrick]

Bringing this oldie but goodie (2010) thread back to life, with one more year remaining, before the ten year mark is up, and we can see for sure which opinions held up.

Factor in your renewals costs and maybe you'll make $50 after 10 years.

Bad:
XEWQ.com (2 anti-premiums, 1 middle)

This one for instance, is currently for sale on nP, at $100 BIN.