Future Price of LLLL.coms

[Kevin A]

I couldn't find a thread on this so I figured I'd start one. What do you think the minimum price will be in a year or two? for an LLLL.com I've heard $500-$1000 in 2010 and $100-$150 in 2009 that seems outregious to me!

What is your opinion?

 

[labrocca]

Considering how they were hyped before and are now back at more realistic prices I can't see most of them gaining much increase. They still need to be brandables, pronouncable, premium letters, and such to have any solid rising value imho. There are too many combinations for them to be considered a valued asset. I recommend development to gain a higher value. A LLLL.com with some PR is going to be worth more.

Stuff like xvbg.com will never rise that much. CCC.com's imho have proven their value for growth while LLLL.com's have not.

 

[snoop]

I couldn't find a thread on this so I figured I'd start one. What do you think the minimum price will be in a year or two? for an LLLL.com I've heard $500-$1000 in 2010 and $100-$150 in 2009 that seems outregious to me!

What is your opinion?

Some people were predicting $200-$400 by the end of this year when the minimum was $50-$60. Of course what actually happened is they have fallen to $10-$15. Personally I wouldn't be assuming much more than reg fee sized prices increases over the next couple of years. We are now in a bear (falling) market, any kind of grand speculation is likely to result in a loss. Make sure you a truly buying cheap, don't assume anything much in the way or rises and realize the chance of futher falls is not low. That $15 domain could just as easily be a $2 domain as a $25 domain, there is no floor.

Here is sobering thread of predictions people were making when the market was at its peak in February,

http://www.namepros.com/short-domain-discussion/430782-what-will-price-january-2009-llll.html?

 

[thenext88]

Well... up for sure. How much is questionable. Realistically I can see $75 being the cheapest in 2010. There's just too many LLLL.com as Snoop pointed out to expect anything major. But as more new people invest in LLLL.com, the price will go up. I think the biggest factor will be when people finally stop looking dumbfounded when I tell them I invested in some LLLL.com - because as far as economy goes... as a senior college student, who's going to have an engineering job next year... will I be able to buy more or less LLLL.com a year from now, regardless of what the economy does?

Multiply me by 10,000 - and what do you get?

So supply/demand will really be what decides the price in the end IMO. With 456,000 available, that's a lot. But... like I said, multiple me by 10,000 and all of a sudden LLLL.com are no where to be found. But of course, like I said, most of my friends look dumbfounded when I tell them about LLLL.com, which is a good thing - because more for me, for now!

 

[h2o]

It all goes back to finding the right buyer. If an end user wants a name bad enough, they may pay in the five digits. But no offense to the people that own domains like xjlq but i think those domains are useless (at least to english speaking people). I do have a domain drMX.com but that is brandable as it has "dr" and "mx" can be written as the "rx" logo.

These are my opinions. Don't shoot me.

 

[d0main]

Stuff like xvbg.com will never rise that much. CCC.com's imho have proven their value for growth while LLLL.com's have not.

I respectfully don't think this is true at all. Domains without type-in traffic are valued based on their price to end-users, and imho, LLLL's have a much better chance of finding end-users than CCC. I just can't see how Z3W.com could cost more than 10x than FZUK.com based on its brandability. If the price is coming from their rarity, one might ask why are some NNNNN.coms not even worth reg fee when CCC.coms cost $200+, when there are less than 2x as much NNNNN as CCC.

Personally, I own my fair share of LLLL.com's and I feel safe if not only for the fact that several large domain shops and veteran resellers still hold more of them than me and are still buying amidst this "bear market" as they consider their current prices to be bargains. If these deep pockets are willing to invest at least four figures in these random domains, then so should I. But it's still anyone's guess.

This post is kinda funny though:
http://www.namepros.com/2546329-post10.html

 

[snoop]

If the price is coming from their rarity, one might ask why are some NNNNN.coms not even worth reg fee when CCC.coms cost $200+, when there are less than 2x as much NNNNN as CCC.

When valuing a collectible rarity is a major factor but the item also has to have significance. Something like a ccc.com probably has greater significance than a 5 number .com, because they have a history of usage, at least the better ones do.

 

[maxeaus]

I think the kind of prices you have mentioned are unrealistic expectations in my opinion. It took 15 years (approx) for llll to sell out, it would thefefore be unreasonable to think they will suddenly become very valuable quickly.

Now having said this, it is interesting to note that China is becoming a large internet using country, and many poor letter combinations appear good for them. I have several rubbish llll.com that get traffic from (same llll.cn) Chinese sites.

If llll.com remain unavailabe, and are not dumped back on the market at reg fee, then long term, you would have to consider prices to rise. Many things could, or will affect this happening, such as increased extensions, and the continued effect of the softening world economy, to name only two. Many premium llll.com continue to rise as we speak, such as quad premium cvcv for example, and other premium combinations.

Like any investment, there is always a risk, so as a buyer you have to judge whether investing in llll.com is currently worth the risk or not, many say yes, many say no. You have to decide for yourself in the end. It is always good to diversify any investment/s you make, to reduce the risk of being over exposed in any one sector, such as llll.com, that is what i would currently suggest.

I still believe, that long term prices are up, but long term is more than two years in my opinion. My prediction is that prices will rise slowly over this time period (long term). At present, prices still look like falling further (short term).

 

[d0main]

You know, I'm getting frustrated the more I think about this (I began a few days ago). Are you telling that end-users are willing to pay more than $18k (!!!) for some stupid sounding NOTHING DOMAINS like baco.com, when they could easily pay reg fee for a good 5L.com? What's keeping the CVCV premium market buoyant but not any other collectible domain type? Is it because some domain company decided to call their company Sedo instead of Seedo? OR is it more possible that CVCV.com is about 100 times more inflated than crappy LLLL.com's are due to the SAME type of speculation from the domaining community? HMMMMMMMMMMMMM

 

[accent]

Any discussion of LLLL.com prices must include the overall economy. If the business climate is worse next year then the value of all domains on the reseller level will continue to fall - LLLL, generic or whatever. To go back to earlier threads and call those who were expecting higher prices foolish, omits that many of those posts included a caveat for the economy, and I think all should get that benefit. All domains are down, that is not a sign of weakness in LLLL.coms.

I firmly believe that in the long term LLLL.coms are undervalued greatly in relation to the overall domain market and that they are a sector that will grow more rapidly than most others when the macro economic downturn is over, whenever that is. And yes, I do still anticipate that eventually LLLL.coms will be valued at about 1/26 the value of comparable LLL.coms. But it will take a number of years to shake out the short term investors before that happens.

 

[snoop]

To go back to earlier threads and call those who were expecting higher prices foolish, omits that many of those posts included a caveat for the economy, and I think all should get that benefit. All domains are down, that is not a sign of weakness in LLLL.coms.

Firstly when those predictions were being made (Feb 2008), the rest of the domain market had already slumped by a large %. Only now that prices have fallen do people point to the economy as the reason, the prevailing view previously with lll.com and llll.com owners is that they would keep going up despite the financial problems.

Secondly, if you look at that thread nobody posted any kind of caveat with their prediction, especially not yourself.

 

[tzsxc]

I don't get y the hate with LLLL's. It is just like any other market segment. Look at LLL.biz and LLL.us and tell me how they are doing. I don't agree with the pumpers or all the dumpers in the past.

For the pumpers; The fact that the support for the crappy names were generally weak for me signaled those pie in the sky numbers were ridiculous.

For the dumpers; Not sure what joy is there to flush the entire LLLL com market down the toilet. Day in and day out postings...

You know, I'm getting frustrated the more I think about this (I began a few days ago). Are you telling that end-users are willing to pay more than $18k (!!!) for some stupid sounding NOTHING DOMAINS like baco.com, when they could easily pay reg fee for a good 5L.com? What's keeping the CVCV premium market buoyant but not any other collectible domain type? Is it because some domain company decided to call their company Sedo instead of Seedo? OR is it more possible that CVCV.com is about 100 times more inflated than crappy LLLL.com's are due to the SAME type of speculation from the domaining community? HMMMMMMMMMMMMM

Not saying baco was not over-priced. 5L's are good names. I have some. But in general life gets tougher as you add more letters. Just type in

SLC
SLCC
SLCCC

into google and you'll get an idea. Saying baco is overpriced but i would rather pay that price than a 6-7k crappy LLL. Remember that baco is essentially a LLL as well since it really is BA-co for any company with acronym BAC.

 

[domainator1]

I think any short .com domain less then 5 letters will be worth hundreds if not thousands in years to come.. lll.com is worth over 5k now but only a few years ago selling for well under 1k, as domaining grows everyone will want to own a short domain, if you had a chance at a lll.com now would you get it? lets just remember how fast the internet is growing.. there are more then 450,000 people online! as the internet grows so will domainers! alot of people will want to own an llll.com for an investment.. and most investors dont sell at a loss.. making the price surely go up!

 

[accent]

Firstly when those predictions were being made (Feb 2008), the rest of the domain market had already slumped by a large %. Only now that prices have fallen do people point to the economy as the reason, the prevailing view previously with lll.com and llll.com owners is that they would keep going up despite the financial problems.

Secondly, if you look at that thread nobody posted any kind of caveat with their prediction, especially not yourself.

I know there were many others who recognized that a bad economy could postpone a "Golden Age" for LLLL.coms. I did a search of my posts for "economy" and found:

From February, 2008 - that is the month that you reference:

http://www.namepros.com/short-domain-discussion/431608-how-spot-good-llll-com-lllll.html
02-12-2008, 07:10 PM Post 4

This is a hot market, with very solid fundamental reasons that it has a way to go yet. There may be corrections downward, and the overall economy is a real concern.

(Bolding added)

http://www.namepros.com/short-domain-discussion/234598-true-value-of-lll-com.html
Post 7
09-04-2006, 08:34 PM

.... If reg fees are raised to the sky, if hundreds of gTLDs are approved, if the world economy tanks ....

I worry too much.

There was a collector market in tulip bulbs, too.

http://www.namepros.com/short-domain-discussion/249180-there-any-4-letter-com-domains.html
post 10
10-21-2006, 12:01 AM

..... Of course if the over-all economy or the domain market go in the dumper then things would not be happy in llll-ville.

http://www.namepros.com/short-domain-discussion/266071-llll-com-after-10-year.html
Post 9
12-06-2006, 07:51 PM

And, most important - what will the over-all world economy be like? Depression or prosperity? Peace or war?

http://www.namepros.com/short-domain-discussion/284473-what-marketing-price-llll-com-net.html
01-22-2007, 06:07 AM Post 8

..... The overall economy is the controling factor in my opinion.

------------------

http://www.namepros.com/400375-a-poll-for-llll-com-investors-2.html
11-27-2007, 09:18 PM post 32

The economy is the elephant in the room, however, and a major stock market fall (I do not consider what we have yet seen to be major) could cause massive dumping, delaying the rise of the LLLL.com tiger.

=======================================================
Then there was this exchange between you and i:

http://www.namepros.com/short-domain-discussion/266071-llll-com-after-10-year.html
12-07-2006, 08:58 PM Post 25

I suspect think you'll find the initial buyout will probably only hold for 12 months or less.

My response - Post 32:

Why? Most LLLL.coms are already taken and the buy rate is exceeding the drop rate. The pool of buyers is increasing in domains overall, soon this small (relatively) puddle of remaining LLLL.coms will be gone. The only major thing I see that could stop it is a recession in the world economy.

Again, bolding added.

I was and still am very bullish on the long term prospects of LLLL.coms. But I never said they were immune from the overall economy.

raining caveats and dogmas