mwzd said:
It does, specially with a ccTLD.
Try any .in recent sale. Poker dot in <= $3k on Estibot.
But I guess once these get fed into your db the results will catchup!
Yes Poker.in is an exception - it's 3k estibot vs 60k real sale price. Not quite 1k vs 100k though, and I haven't seen that happen though of course it's possible. I maintain that such a large discrepancy (while not impossible) is generally unlikely. I agree that ccTLD's are harder for EstiBot and this sort of discrepancy is more likely with them. That's because of lack of sales data for statistical analysis. For instance, the .in sales database is too small and there is too much variance to avoid this type of error from happening.
As you said, I'll try to improve as more sales data come in.
John Doe said:
Estibot gives you rough "technical" analysis based on keyword frequency, search activity, backlinks, extension, taken extensions and traffic. Automated system doesn`t catch usability, how this name fits to endusers business, willingness to pay, emotional appeal etc which are more important than technical categories. Importan component of market value is price of similar name sales. Does Estibot consider any sales data in his valuating formulas or not, I don`t know.
Similar name sales is a very good, but very dangerous appraisal method. I've seen many appraisals use "similar" name sales based on similar keywords, resulting in an irrelevant comparison and poor appraisal. As you say, there is the emotional appeal and usability etc - all this can change with a single letter, let alone a word.
Estibot uses a large previous sales database (namebio.com plus my own), and in fact the very heart of the estibot method is comparison to similar name sales. However, because of the difficulties involved in automating a similar name value comparison, the algorithm does this slightly differently than you might think, and although this is of course a work in progress, I've tested many approaches and the current one delivers by far the best results, when statistical analysis is applied.
The method is not perfect of course, but what I'm trying to do is find a way to standardize domain values and figure out a way to give a standardized appraisal, a measure of the fundamental characteristics of a domain name, and the probable ballpark value in the current market. This value then needs to be adjusted for the special conditions you mentioned, and especially adjusted to the motivation of the buyer and seller.
This way I am hoping to provide a tool that can be used as the starting point of domain valuation.
It's not easy, but I keep trying...