Domain Sales in the Future

[999names]

I really cannot emphasize this enough.

I read stat reports after stat reports indicating how the governments across the globe are spending on their infrastructure to speed up their broadband which in many countries across the globe broadband is only available to 10 to 20 percent of the population even in some European countries.

I know domainers keep saying sales have not been as great as before. I know some are disappointed and are throwing their hands up. But let me tell you guys. My life is statistics and as far as I see the more people get on broadband the more domains are being sold. It s just like the research that was done in the 50's regarding every mile that gets paved certain amount of chevys get sold. I am telling you guys good short .coms and good cctlds will see price appreciations never seen before in the next 10 to 15 years. Why i say short .coms because as people from africa to sahara to india are getting online they either like their cctld or short .coms like numericals, and 3 or 4 characters. Some of you might say who 's going to hold domains for 10 to 15 years. I don't know but whomever holding them will be rewarded greatly. Statistics don't lie. You do the math.

Pay attention to fixed wireline stats and mobile broadband. By the end of 2011 there were only 590 million broadband subscribers in the world out of 7.046 billion.
http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/material/pdf/2011 Statistical highlights_June_2012.pdf

 

[namemarket]

Am I the only one here wondering what Broadband is? And a related question, whatever it may be, why would it enable the sale of more domains? Also don't know what "fixed wireline stats" are?

 

[jmcc]

Am I the only one here wondering what Broadband is?

The definition of broadband varies from country to country and is a function of the technological cluelessness of that country's government. Thus you can see 1Mb/s download rate being considered broadband for some countries whereas others may have 25Mb/s and upwards as standard for the bulk of the users in that country.

And a related question, whatever it may be, why would it enable the sale of more domains?

I don't think that it would. There's a large difference between the volume of registered domains and the volume of developed domains in a TLD. The percentages vary from TLD to TLD with some ccTLDs and .com being the most developed and the non-core TLDs like net/org/biz/info/mobi/asia etc being less developed. There are two things that drive domain name sales: a speculative bubble and usage. The speculative bubble is what encourages people to register domains in TLDs like .co ccTLD in the hope that these domains can be sold on for more than reg fee. Usage is a virtuous circle in that it is the real driver for TLD growth. The more developed the domains in a TLD, the more the users see that TLD; the more the users see that TLD, the more familiar they become with that TLD; the more users who see that TLD, the more domains are developed in that TLD because people know it and use it. Countries where the telecommunications infrastructure is well developed have a strong ccTLD/com axis with 80% or more of that country's domain footprint being along that axis.

Also don't know what "fixed wireline stats" are?

Fixed wire is essentially phoneline with DSL though it sometimes might include cable broadband.

Regards...jmcc

 

[999names]

The definition of broadband varies from country to country and is a function of the technological cluelessness of that country's government. Thus you can see 1Mb/s download rate being considered broadband for some countries whereas others may have 25Mb/s and upwards as standard for the bulk of the users in that country.

I don't think that it would. There's a large difference between the volume of registered domains and the volume of developed domains in a TLD. The percentages vary from TLD to TLD with some ccTLDs and .com being the most developed and the non-core TLDs like net/org/biz/info/mobi/asia etc being less developed. There are two things that drive domain name sales: a speculative bubble and usage. The speculative bubble is what encourages people to register domains in TLDs like .co ccTLD in the hope that these domains can be sold on for more than reg fee. Usage is a virtuous circle in that it is the real driver for TLD growth. The more developed the domains in a TLD, the more the users see that TLD; the more the users see that TLD, the more familiar they become with that TLD; the more users who see that TLD, the more domains are developed in that TLD because people know it and use it. Countries where the telecommunications infrastructure is well developed have a strong ccTLD/com axis with 80% or more of that country's domain footprint being along that axis.

Fixed wire is essentially phoneline with DSL though it sometimes might include cable broadband.

Regards...jmcc

Thank you for the detailed response. I really think broadband advancement has direct effects on cctld registrations.

This is how I conducted one of my sample studies for all who understand stats.

The target population of my research were the Chinese and Brazilian households residing in private dwellings. This target population made up of overseas visitors/tourists and diplomats of their respected governments. This unscientific sample included 100 families from both countries.

This is an unscientific sample because of its small sample size and sample errors associated with national estimates for example breakdown of each region and the respondents socioeconomic status wasnt calculated. Neverthelessless it is an estimate research.

Definitions:
Broadband was self identified by the respondents. Meaning as long as it is non-analogue or not dial up it was considered broadband in their eyes.

Fixed line
Broadband needed to be connected through their land line and not a mobile phone.

2 questionnaires were given one to dial up users one to broadband users.

Variables
Broadband users total 52. Dial up users total 48.
Brazilian 77 Chinese 34
Mean domain registrations 3.95 for broadband users
Standard deviation of .63
Mean domain registrations for dial up users 2.73
SD .62

Clearly with this unscientific data broadband usage increases the domain registrations in the respected homeland.

This indicates we are just in the start of the great cctld sales.

 

[jmcc]

As a country becomes more connected (more broadband and more developed websites) there's also a ccTLD effect where the numbers of local ccTLD domains registered in that market overtakes the numbers of gTLD domains registered. This is due to more local small businesses developing websites in the local ccTLD. The .com TLD is typically a global TLD but the local ccTLD allows a kind of targeting not possible with .com. The other aspect that might not be apparent at first is that broadband is "always on" and so people are continually connected. With dialup, the user has to go through the connection process to get online.

The other important thing for domaining is that .com rules do not generally apply in ccTLDs (especially non-English language ccTLDs).

Regards...jmcc

 

[999names]

As a country becomes more connected (more broadband and more developed websites) there's also a ccTLD effect where the numbers of local ccTLD domains registered in that market overtakes the numbers of gTLD domains registered. This is due to more local small businesses developing websites in the local ccTLD. The .com TLD is typically a global TLD but the local ccTLD allows a kind of targeting not possible with .com. The other aspect that might not be apparent at first is that broadband is "always on" and so people are continually connected. With dialup, the user has to go through the connection process to get online.

The other important thing for domaining is that .com rules do not generally apply in ccTLDs (especially non-English language ccTLDs).

Regards...jmcc

Exactly as more local business people develop more websites in that particular cctld more people notice. The more people notice the higher the registrations in that extension and what makes this easy is developing websites and seting up businesses online with the fast Internet downloads of broadband and as you mention people continually are connected and make this possible therefore .com rules would not apply to cctlds. I actually see that with .in now from India and .pl and .pe extensions of Poland and Peru.

 

[ecalc]

Clearly with this unscientific data broadband usage increases the domain registrations in the respected homeland.

Correlation doesn't imply causation. A might cause B, B might cause A, A might cause B and bidirectionally B might cause A, C might cause A and B, C might cause A and D might cause B, etc. Sleeping with your shoes on may correlate with headaches but the cause of both may be in the refrigerator. What is clear is that internet traffic is growing and in some corners domaining is all about the traffic. Excelsior!

 

[999names]

Correlation doesn't imply causation. A might cause B, B might cause A, A might cause B and bidirectionally B might cause A, C might cause A and B, C might cause A and D might cause B, etc. ....... What is clear is that internet traffic is growing and in some corners domaining is all about the traffic. Excelsior!

Or it can be that x is causing A B C and D

X being the broadband connection making the traffic larger.

 

[ecalc]

Broadband growth may be driving domain registrations but causation is tough to prove and it has not been proven here. The suggestion that "good short .coms and good cctlds will see price appreciations never seen before in the next 10 to 15 years" requires another big leap of faith. You may be right but I can think of a few things that might spoil that party. In my opinion, come 2027, investors will look back 15 years and wish they had invested every spare red cent on distressed real estate.

 

[999names]

Broadband growth may be driving domain registrations but causation is tough to prove and it has not been proven here. The suggestion that "good short .coms and good cctlds will see price appreciations never seen before in the next 10 to 15 years" requires another big leap of faith. You may be right but I can think of a few things that might spoil that party. In my opinion, come 2027, investors will look back 15 years and wish they had invested every spare red cent on distressed real estate.

I can't disagree with distressed real estate bro. It's tangible. Good call.