Located in General Domain Discussion, started by hangtian, Sep 15, 2019
Does the future of domain names depreciate or appreciate? Explain why
99% of domain DO NOT have a future ... Because nobody will ever want to use them.
The remaining 1% DO have a future ... Because they are good to great domains that people will want to use.
Explaining anything further is really too long to put here ... you need to take time to learn about domains and domaining. About how to buy good domains that people will want to use at low enough prices so that of the very few that you sell, they will pay for the rest of your portfolio that does not sell.
Now go read all around NamePros .. there's enough information to keep you busy for days if not weeks. After that I also suggest you check out the blogs and podcast ...
I hope you will explain a bit more exactly what you mean by the question, @hangtian (and welcome to NamePros!).
As @Ategy.com wrote the vast majority of domain names that are currently held will never sell, and the majority that will sell will probably take years. That is depressing, I know, but realistic.
By being as informed as possible, working hard, focussing on real evidence and not depending on easy answers you might hear, having a plan, being open to being wrong and modifying your plan over time, etc. will improve your chances, but even breaking even is not at all easy. Some people do very well at domaining though.
If you meant, overall, are domains going up or down in price, that is hard to answer. The average price of publicly reported sales is going down somewhat, at least from 5+ years ago, but is that just because the quality of what is being sold is going down (since so many locked in) or that there are more domainers selling more names some of which at low prices. I am not sure. I read every day on NameBio those with past sales, and generally there are more down than up. But that may not mean what it seems to.
I think the future of domain investing is challenged by new search, voice and AI assisted presentation of results, and the great popularity of platforms like Wix that do not require a domain for each site.
I think there are opportunities for new uses of domain names however, and see evidence that some companies are moving from a single domain to use of multiple ones for different purposes.
Overall, I think if people decide they want control of their information on sites they manage, the future may be bright.
It is a tough question.
Well, as Ategy alluded to, so many factors may determine a good investment. It depends on the domain name, and the extension it sits on.
But to put it in a nutshell, domains that are instantly usable and recognizable, have a mass appeal- or at least the potential for a mass appeal (future tech, trends), will appreciate over time. Whereas domains that seem obscure, or are not combined or worded appealingly, or geared toward a very tiny niche, will likely depreciate.
I agree with this in general but I think one also needs to keep in mind how subscribed a niche is. Like blockchain is clearly important, no doubt, and many blockchain names have sold. But also, in some TLDs especially, it is way over-subscribed compared to any possible end use. As was pointed out with Libra I think something like 17000 domains are registered in it. Now even if Libra is a big thing and no TM issues, I can't perceive that anywhere near that many are needed.
On the other hand a niche could be small, but if you are the only one, or one of just a few, serving that niche, you might still do OK with your domain names (if, and it's a big if, you can get them noticed by the people in that niche).
But in terms of rapid flip and liquidity I agree entirely that names with broad appeal are way easier to flip to other domainers and perhaps easier to get looked at by end users.
Yep you'e right Bob. Great points. Getting the priority domain on a tiny niche is definitely not a bad thing. When it comes to the Libra example, which we could consider trend or future tech, I think this is one of the many nuances/gray areas for domain appreciation. I think in cases like this, unless you've grabbed a generic front-runner, its a risky endeavor.
Will depreciate for sure.
Everything changes. It's very wrong to assume domains will always be needed or their current form will never change or a better alternative will never be invented.
Homes still have addresses. Internet/sites aren't going anywhere, they usually have names.
They are used for centuries...
OP is asking about the aftermarket... per my understanding.
Current trend is down from year to year... due to oversupply.
Address form can change. Example? Just compare addressing system of SSD and spinning disk. in the very near future Address form using in spinnning HDD's will be extinct with HDD's. CD's have been replaced by flash memories long time ago. How long did we use CD's, HDD's and floppy disks? Not more than 30 years? How long do we use domain names? More than 30 years? Perhaps we are living in the last days of domain names?
Home addresses, even all types of addresses can completely extinct but it can take centuries. It's wrong to assume people will always use homes or at least in the way they have used since the last few thousands years.
We will use very different form of internet. Domain names have already being deprecating and their forms have already started to change with gTLD's, nTLD's, IDN's, decentralized domain names, DNSSEC, etc.. These are small signs of the ongoing changes in the form of domains. Those changes will never stop until they extinct domain names.
It's wrong to imagine the future with the current tech level and habits.
No, they need addresses. Or do you imagine a time when we just get rid of something that makes sense and works (addresses) and say something like, go to that brick house with 2 trees out front and blue door? This topic gets brought up every single year and not once has somebody made sense on it, why addresses will go away.
Then you did the old, talk about old technology going away for new technology. They went away because it was something that could be improved on.
What? People are going to live somewhere, it's need direction (address).
We still use the original internet as it was designed in 80s.
Only IPv6 was added due to the current size of internet.
It is just new game for ICANN and few other companies...
Like another extension for your browser, no any new technologies here.
In other words, all these tons of TLDs could be started in 80s, were no any technical barriers.
Everything first changes form and then becomes extinct, except one thing, the change itself.
When you have noticed the first changes in form, you can make sure its end has started.
When you have noticed major changes more frequently than the changes you have noticed in your own form (health, social/financial status, etc) then you can make sure you will see its end before you die.
I showed above how address form has changed in data storage tech. This will affect all computers and operating systems. It's easy to imagine similar "improvements" will be seen in home addresses and domain names.
Domain names will first change form. This period has started very quickly after the first domain was born. Form changes in domain names are very frequent. We might be only one more major change far from the end of domain names.
It's possible to use mail box (a.k.a PO box) address instead of real home address. Mail box has an address but its form is different. It is a real address only for post office employees. It's not a direction to a real location for anyone else. It has one major function or effect. While you still need an address (virtual or real), you don't need a home to send/receive postal mails. So having home has lost one advantage. If this trend in the form of home has started, we can expect this trend will never end. When home loses enough advantages, being a home owner will be meaningless. This can apply to everything, including addresses while I agree and already said address will be around for a very long time. Because address is used to locate a place. Since there is no known major change in the form of "place", address will be around. Please note that there is one common thing that is constant, all of these are abstract things created by human brain, not by the nature itself. Abstract things created by human brain will change faster than natural things like creation of new species, oceans or planets. Abstract things change very quickly. But as our lifetime is very short, we just don't notice how fast abstract things change and assume all those will last forever. This is a fallacy.
I agree. But form of internet has changed, dial-ups, DSL, fiber, 3G, 5G, mobiles, satellite ISP's etc. After a few additional changes it can potentially turn to a complete different thing. As IP form has changed with ipv6, we can assume we will not use IP numbers as we use today. If I go further it's quite possible we will not use websites, hence domain names, browsers, etc. It can be a complete different thing that does not require domain names or unlimited number of extensions can possibly work for free after some major changes in DNS protocol. Having a brand dot com maybe meaningless as "brand dot anything" or even "brand anything anything" can perfectly work. Then it may be impossible protect TM or TM can change its form and may not apply domain names. Therefore brands may stop bothering with domain names for their online presence. Or internet can go out of control completely, can turn to a chaotic place and big brands may force governments to label the internet as illegal. They can start campaigns against internet on alternative media channels and can easily have enough number of supporters in case of a referendum is needed in some countries.
Oh boy. You mention dial-up, dsl, fiber........... with all that people were going to sites with.............an address. You're really not posting anything new. Again, every year we have people come post this stuff.
domains have a future
even the sun has a future
but only for 5 billion years
domains may live shorter
@frank-germany Lifetime is only one point. There is also usage popularity issue when determining future demand. Horses are still around but they are no longer most favorite vehicle of the majority. Also technological developments are only one factor. Anything can change usage popularity.
Supply side is another issue. Even if domain names will be around for a very long time in the exact form of today, possible increase in supply would lower domain value. This has already happened partially with plenty of new TLD's and IDN's and likely already has dropped domain value. Com is the king as a result of common habit. This can change in the future. EMD's are no longer great SEO factor, and so on. Domain value keeps dropping in general. Most people think premium and quality domains are different and if you have quality names their value will always raise. No, all of them are domains are in the same boat.
I was worried about this
and in 2014
I just stopped being worried at all
Domains have a future for the next 20 years.
Premium domains will appreciate, poor quality domains will depreciate.
How do I know ?
I came back from the future
I still don't understand: what sense in this futurology (xx years ahead)???
For almost all registrants - risks are limited to 1 year.
You can always stop, just don't renew.
Only for the top dogs
Right now, gTLD's are growing in popularity, as are what I'm going to call blockchain domains for dApps and all (.eth and all that.) Also, Google algorithm will change to accommodate rising popularity in gTLD and content quality.
So if you're asking will the .com have a future, that depends on technology and consumer behaviour.
Bob stated that prices are falling, loosely speaking from me here. But as he said, there are a number of variables that correlate with this trend. Could be more people selling more rubbish, again speaking loosely.
I guess, like in finance we watch institutional investors, watch the heavyweights. If they start moving domains then something is up.
My opinion, .com has at least a decade in it before anything serious affects the value of genuine mid 5 figure .com domains. Research and you'll see: Blockchain, will grow in 6, cryptoassets cap will triple in 6 from 2.16 to 6.68. These will be the backbone behind new tech, like the internet and computers have been.
Separate names with a comma.