.mobi Death knell for mobile web?

[Rubber Duck]

http://www.siliconrepublic.com/news/news.nv?storyid=single10756

15.04.2008 - The mobile web is “limited at best and dying at worst” said former Yahoo! Mobile evangelist and programmer Russell Beattie as he shut down his mobile browser start-up Mowser barely a year after its launch.
“I don’t actually believe in the mobile web anymore,” said Beattie in a post on his official blog, explaining how he has come to believe that a web experience developed solely for the mobile handset is just not a concept that is taking off.

“Two years ago I was convinced the mobile web would continue to evolve in the west to mimic what was happening in countries like Japan and Korea, but it hasn’t happened, and now I’m sure it isn’t going to.”

Although there are around three billion mobile phones in use worldwide, Beattie claims the argument that this is tilting the online market in favour of the handset over the PC is simply not true because the current browser experience on a handset is not full enough, unless you are using a device like the iPhone or Nokia N95.

“Let’s face it, you really aren’t going to spend any real time or effort browsing the web on your mobile phone unless you’re using Opera Mini or have a smart phone with a decent browser – as any other option is a waste of time, effort and money,” he said.

Mowser was developed by Beattie as a service that takes regular websites developed for a standard PC or Mac browser and optimises or converts them for a mobile experience.

Theoretically, this gave Mowser an unlimited market but Beattie said analysis of the traffic passing though his site showed around 80pc was related to porn with an absence of a general market.

“Let me say that again clearly, the mobile traffic just isn’t there. It’s not there now, and it won’t be,” he said with an air of finality on his blog.

The solution, said Beattie, is the smart phone. Statistics may support this conclusion: a recent survey by US tech trends firm iSuppli showed that US consumers spend on average 12.1pc of their time using the iPhone for the mobile web, while users of other mobile handsets only use the net on their handsets 2.4pc of the time.

 

[mjnels]

using hype as a measuring stick is completely retarded... mobi HAS NOT disappointed me and ive been speculating since the release of the TLD.

its not my fault a bunch of people had idiotic expectations.... i formed my very own opinion and i repeat, .mobi HAS FAR EXCEEDED MY EXPECTATIONS... PERIOD!

 

[coast]

To add to my previous post.

That being said -- Mr. Beattie also sounds like a frustrated man, one who just had to close down his business and give up on his dreams. And 2 years does seem a bit premature to pull the plug on something like this.

If you read the actual post, he was in a considerable amount of debt for betting on his product that did not pay for itself nor did it pay for his lifestyle. The mowser product itself is quite useful and we use it on recalledtoys.mobi. At one point, however, it turned people off by going to a page of ads before allowing users to access the content. It simply wasn't making money for him because the business model he chose did not pan out.

The question a lot of people are asking now is "how do I make money on my .mobi websites." When the affiliates are mobile ready, that question will be a lot easier to answer. The two biggies, amazon and ebay, are not fully compliant on ready.mobi, scoring 3/5 each. That means unless you have end users with smartphones or newer standard phones, those transactions are likely to be missed for lack of horizontal scrolling or a frozen browser that is choking on graphics that are too large.

Now advertising agencies are starting to get serious about mobile web, so things are about to get interesting.

 

[hawkeye]

Well, clearly if they develop the site or intend to develop the site - they are the end user. However, I feel my questions are being lost. If you look past technical issues, my question is what are domain holders doing to help the mobi market? Granted, there are some developed sites - as you've clearly pointed out.

But, how many? and how many is enough? What is the registry doing, what are domain holders doing to promote and build? My fear is that they aren't doing enough besides a few examples here and there.

Anyhow - I feel my questions and points are getting lost in this crowd. I will retreat to safer ground.

Thanks,
Justin

Justin, I don't think your questions are 'being lost' here. It just seems somewhat puzzling that so many need to 'justify' a .mobi sale as being to an 'enduser' or to another 'domainer', as to whether it's a 'legitimate' sale and not just a 'flip'. Yet no one needs these same 'justifications' for other extensions be they .net, .info, .asia, .tv, or again LLLLs in any extension, as domain investments. The same critieria that some want to use to 'justify' the viability of a .mobi sale, 'do' apply to other domains and extensions, but are not. Whether .com has been around longer or not, really has nothing to do with buying a LLLL based on the 'hype' of these being a 'great investment', when the buyers who end up paying the most/highest to get one of these names, is left 'holding the bag' when the 'hype' of these dies down and they can't resell their investment.

I'm not disagreeing with you on your pov of 'if it's going to survive more enduser sales are needed to stimulate even further growth.' It just gets a little old, hearing the same need of certain criterias to validate the .mobi extension, but yet such are not unilaterrally applied to other extensions and 'domain investments'. JMO that's all.

 

[coast]

If you look past technical issues, my question is what are domain holders doing to help the mobi market? Granted, there are some developed sites - as you've clearly pointed out.

But, how many? and how many is enough? What is the registry doing, what are domain holders doing to promote and build? My fear is that they aren't doing enough besides a few examples here and there.

Thanks,
Justin

Developed .mobi domains are nowhere near critical mass yet. The registry has been talking with advertising agencies behind the scenes and those seeds are just beginning to sprout. Additionally, there are plans for a marketing forum similar to the mtld developer forum which will go a long, long way toward increasing brand awareness for .mobi domain names.

Several domain name owners including myself put out media releases which do better if you spring for the paid version.

Finally, I have a developer partner and we will be making a graphically-pleasing, fully compliant 5/5 sites as a paid service. Currently we are working with premium name owners but will be launching a similar service to the general public for non-premiums when we work out the details.

The simple fact of the matter is that it is up to individual domain name owners to have their sites developed and promoted. If you've read the Tipping Point you can see that we aren't anywhere close to that yet. Patience and action are required.

 

[TheGenesys]

I remember a similar topic about Rap & Hip Hop about 20 years ago...!! Check the Billboard top 10 Lately?

 

[thebiffenator]

I think .mobi is going to the dogs! www.purina.mobi

 

[Traveler]

Some of you apparently need to lookup what a strawman argument really means.

The funny thing is, until you joined the thread with all your spite against .mobi there was no arguement at all.

For whatever reason you are obviously compelled to attack people that don't agree with your view on .mobi. Sounds like sour grapes to me :hehe: :wave:

Everyone needs to chill out and give the mobile web time to develop. Because
it has not boomed over night does not mean it is doomed by any means!

Exactly!

 

[labrocca]

The funny thing is, until you joined the thread with all your spite against .mobi there was no arguement at all.

Spite? Hardly.

For whatever reason you are obviously compelled to attack people that don't agree with your view on .mobi.

Attack? Who have I attacked? When people don't agree with me I voice my opinion and place a well worded argument. You would be wise to do the same. I am discussing very clearly how the original post is reflective upon mobi and it's followers.

You need to seperate what you think is a personal attack with the fact that you just don't like my opinion. Also I have an uncanny ability to use convincing arguments in order to win almost any debate. If you want to argue the merits of mobi with me you better bring your A game.

Because it has not boomed over night does not mean it is doomed by any means!

And just because some of you have invested heavily in mobi doesn't mean you made the right decision. That's kind of the point that Beattie really does a good job of relaying. The mobile web isn't going to be the next big thing.

Maybe it's time you go read what a real professional domainer has to say.

http://frankschilling.typepad.com/my_weblog/2007/03/mobi_cashgrab.html

Good luck...and it's time I vanish back into the shadows. It's obvious mobineers still can't take bad news well or any legit criticism.

 

[Traveler]

Spite? Hardly.



Attack? Who have I attacked?

Let's review, shall we:

"Mobi fanatics continue to hold onto hope but one at a time they are jumping off the train."

"You mobineers hold on though...hold tight. It's just so damn amusing."

"I guess mobifans will hold onto ANYTHING to ignore bad news or reality. "

You may not call those statements an attack but they are certainly meant to antagonize and they are pretty unprofessional in my opinion.

Good luck...and it's time I vanish back into the shadows. It's obvious mobineers still can't take bad news well or any legit criticism.

Good Bye and good luck with your wave of the future new keyword "GEO" names. Hope they work out better for you than your "blook" names. :D :hehe:

 

[Keith]

Spite? Hardly.





And just because some of you have invested heavily in mobi doesn't mean you made the right decision. That's kind of the point that Beattie really does a good job of relaying. The mobile web isn't going to be the next big thing.



.

Dude, the mobile web is going to be huge!!
I can see you doubting .mobi but the mobile web :D

As far as real domainers...get ready for the next generation. It's
the typical out with the old in with the new that is happening right
before your eyes.

This does'nt mean .com or the traditional web will be void. It's just
time for trends to move forward as they always do :sold:

BTW, it's always great to hear your 2 cents Labrocca :wave:

 

[Kate]

Dude, the mobile web is going to be huge!!

I've been hearing this for over a decade
But I have always said patience is a must in domaining

 

[thebiffenator]

Not for anything but it is interesting!

read this article

http://www.russellbeattie.com/notebook/1008931.html



here is his new article as is stated by the OP
http://www.siliconrepublic.com/news/news.nv?storyid=single10756


Quoted from the first link from Rus's site

"I'll admit I've gone back and forth on my opinions of the new .mobi TLD. But I've finally made the firm decision that it's definitely a step forward for the mobile web. Sometimes I'd wonder if we really needed Yet Another Domain Name or if a new domain name would cause confusion, or if separating out addresses for the mobile web was really a good idea. But I have finally decided once and for all it's a Good Thing(TM)"

Any thoughts?

 

[MaguirePhD]

My view

The biffenator:

The .mobi extension is another cog in an ever-expanding communications network that will bear good and bad depending upon the applcation.

A sharp knife in the hands of a madman is a problem but in the hands of a skilled surgeon it is a life saver.

Technlogy brings about new jobs and eradicates others. As technology expands the number of people providing goods and services shrinks and not concentrically or arithmetically...but exponentionally.

They just didn't dream up the term horsepower when they said " this tractor pulling this trailer has 460 horsepower. " Effectively, it could do the
transporting work of 460 horses.

Expansion is good but at a price. What will that price be? Substanial.
Will the good outweigh they bad. Probably.

Look at Wal-Mart, the nations largest retailer. They were alowed to expand under the capitistic system with unbridled growth.

Today Wal-Mart imports 12% of all the goods manufactured in China. That company is also responsible for 19% of all the buisnesses closing in America. From the Mom and Pop stores to the major carpet mills of the Carolinas, WalMart has disrupted matters.

Is expansion always good? No. Will it happen anyway? Yes.

In closing,.mobi is here and it is not going anywhere or drying up as some in this forum have stated. While I full well realize that they are making their prediction based on their knowledge of the Internet, Web or whatever it is termed. The crucible need not be the Internet. It needs to be the world economy of which the Internet is but a mere component.

Doc.

 

[DomainTalker]

A sharp knife in the hands of a madman is a problem but in the hands of a skilled surgeon it is a life saver.

Nicely said, Doc...

...and the points you make are sound, imo...

I'll leave the moral dimension as to whether the mobile web, in general, or .mobi, in particular, is good for society, or not, to others...I'm sure that it will be a bit of both - there will be winners and losers (eg Walmart takes away jobs in one sector - and has created a lot of jobs in another).


For me, the internet has become ubiquitous - its central now to the everyday lives of billions of people. Many of us cannot function well in today's society without it (how're things in your life when the email goes down?)

...Similarly, its a fair bet (based on what we know of human nature, and how it responds to self-interest, and convenience) that the mobile version of the web will become just as totally intertwined in the lives of people living in developed societies (in Japan, apparently 60% of mobile phone users don't have a PC anymore (they do all their online stuff on their mobile device, including phones). South Korea isn't far behind. So, its happening.

....Look at how people have taken to the cordless phone in their homes - and many have done away with a fixed line phone, altogether....Its not hard to imagine that soon we will be as frustrated at having to go to a fixed place (ie a desktop) to perform transactions, as we are now if our car doesn't start perfectly when we turn the key (not all that long ago, cars were unreliable).


All we need is the Telcos, mobile phone producers, & ISP providers, to provide us with seamless, global, affordable, secure, reliable, wireless communication plans for mobile phones - and...BOOM...!!, imo.


As for .mobi's place in the mobile universe....

My own view is that the dedication of made-for-mobile technology - for all mobile phones (that's at the heart of the .mobi mobile competitive advantage) - makes .mobi much more, imo, than simply another internet extension. Its a system.....Other 'mobile' work-arounds are good - just not as good.


I feel that, as the thousands of people that use the mobile phone for web-browsing today, become tens and then hundreds of thousands - and then millions - they will expect & seek a device that makes it easy to access the info on their necessarily small portable screen...No scrolling, No slow downloads, No big costs to download heavy (designed-for-PC) sites....I believe .mobi (where every site is guaranteed cheap & fast to load for them) will be the natural choice...


Yes, it'll take time to establish...But, as the developed world goes increasingly mobile web (as I think it will), then folks will want a cheap & hassle-free experience.

.mobi - and its technology - will provide that...


I think .mobi will be just HUGE, in time.

.

 

[MaguirePhD]

Agree entirely

DomainTalker:

It's time is here, it will happen because technology will always develop to assuage the whimsical desires and spending habits of the consumer.

I was born around the time TV was first making it here in the U.S., so I have a little history in watching technology unfold.

Doc

 

[labrocca]

Dude, the mobile web is going to be huge!!

Yes and no. Mobile communication is going to be huge (arguable it already is). One can look at Japan for their many innovations (early adoptors?). Just the other day I realized I left my house without my wallet but did have my cell phone. I certainly wished I could swipe my smartphone at a register for a latte.

What we do on the internet is surf the web. We type a lot...we click a lot. Mobile imho doesn't work that way. Voice utilities will have to get better so we can speak to our phones for commands. Typing on most cells or portables simply stinks. Viewing the screen stinks...mobi does a half-arse job by dumbing down the user experience. It's not a step forward for mobile web...it's a step backwards. It's not a new technology and it's not even proprietary. I can use whatever .mobi site onto a .com and there would be ZERO difference.

As far as real domainers...get ready for the next generation. It's the typical out with the old in with the new that is happening right before your eyes.

It's this loudly pronounced enthusiasm that makes me ill. I am unfortunately old enough to have heard it a THOUSAND times yet it comes true only a few. Everyone wants to believe they are into the next big thing. It's a delusion of grandeur. If you really pay attention to the trend. If you really carefully examine mTLD. You wouldn't be so enthusiastic imho.

In closing,.mobi is here and it is not going anywhere or drying up as some in this forum have stated.

I don't see anyone making radical claims like that except mobi enthusiasts trying to polarize opinions. mTLD is obviously not going to close shop...has any extension after it's opening cease to exist? No! .mobi is here to stay..but so what. .name and .coop and .aero and now .asia are all here...all have their place...each represents a different ideal.

What I don't see is real close examination of mobi or mTLD by proponents. I just read words of encouragement and hope. That's fine but it should be tempered with some reality. There is now enough history of mTLD to understand the ideals of this company. I never trusted them...call me a simple skeptic of anyone with big ideas. However here we are about 18 months later and many of their early ideas are now in the trash can. It was those ideals (ecosystem, RFP) that hooked most enthusiasts.

I think for the most part the only people that really "get it" are domainers. Domainers are NOT trend setters...they are trend FOLLOWERS. That's how you make money.

http://fsbfeatures.blogs.fsb.cnn.com/2007/11/16/accessing-the-internet-from-cellphones/

That's a great example of a CNN blog post and it would seem most replies are from mobi domainers. You can see how many of them are familiar faces just advertising their mobi's.

BTW, it's always great to hear your 2 cents Labrocca

And you just proved my point that mobineers can convince themselves of anything.

 

[scandiman]

I don't see anyone making radical claims like that except mobi enthusiasts trying to polarize opinions.

hmmm... over 27,000 posts at NP contain ".mobi "ecosystem" | R.I.P. 8-X"

I think for the most part the only people that really "get it" are domainers. Domainers are NOT trend setters...they are trend FOLLOWERS. That's how you make money.

Sure, tell that to Rick Schwartz and the others buying up great names when most everyone else said the web is dead. That's what I call getting ahead of trends, not following them. Your contempt for .mobi and it's enthusiasts is blinding your perspective. You go ahead and keep on following though.

 

[coast]

I'm a mobi enthusiast and proud of it. I'll bring my "A" game any time you want. I will treat you and your position with respect, and ask that you do the same for me.

It's not a new technology and it's not even proprietary. I can use whatever .mobi site onto a .com and there would be ZERO difference.

There are transcoding mechanisms built into .mobi that are not built into .com, so actually it is a new technology. Because of the transcoding, you can have two sites in one. In the grand scheme of things, it's not that expensive to register or develop a .mobi name to do basic things. A good example is http://brangus.mobi. If you go to that site on a computer, you could find out the history of the organization and find out a number of interesting things. If you are literally out in a field with your mobile phone, you can pick which brangus cattle are available so you know which ones to buy. It's actually a pretty useful way to get information.

Even if that were not the case, I see .mobi as a branding issue, .com for computers, .mobi for mobile phones. A lot of companies are starting to agree, not just the earliest adopters. Additionally, I see this as a brand that is appealing to people younger than most of us, which is why I don't expect most people over 30 to get on board with it, although many of us have. Text messaging and microblogging are second nature to this demographic, which is why Nordstrom.mobi is a smart move. Expect others to follow.

What I don't see is real close examination of mobi or mTLD by proponents. I just read words of encouragement and hope. That's fine but it should be tempered with some reality. There is now enough history of mTLD to understand the ideals of this company. I never trusted them...call me a simple skeptic of anyone with big ideas. However here we are about 18 months later and many of their early ideas are now in the trash can. It was those ideals (ecosystem, RFP) that hooked most enthusiasts.

Perhaps you didn't notice, but there's a new sheriff in town over there. The original CEO was replaced and there is a lot more being done by mTLD to reach out to domain name owners to find out what they need, and they are starting to implement it. Honestly, this is the most accessible tld I've ever heard of - taking out average Joe and Jane domain name owners to fancy dinners just to hear what they have to say at their "happenings"? The one I attended had only five domainers - myself and an investment group of four people. They would've had every right to cancel for non-participation, but did they? No. They showed up, two of them, high-level mTLD execs and grilled us as hard as we grilled them for four hours over a 5-star meal about what we wanted and how they could make it happen. If you are anywhere near Boca Raton next week I would highly suggest attending the next one. Is .com doing that? I would say these people are listening and making improvements on a daily basis.

I think for the most part the only people that really "get it" are domainers. Domainers are NOT trend setters...they are trend FOLLOWERS. That's how you make money.

That's traditional domaining, and mobile domaining is not traditional. There is no built in traffic that you can park and click on, and if that's what you want you're in the wrong playground. We have serious developers here who want to provide decent content to people. Maybe it will pay off big, maybe it won't. There are plenty of parked .com names that make a penny a month if they are lucky, and there are plenty of .mobi names that are making hundreds of dollars from admob every month. Anyone who doesn't want to build sites and add content is right to stay out of the extension. Just know what you are saying "no" to and please don't disrespect those of us that are building something useful for people.

 

[gou]

Yes and no. Mobile communication is going to be huge (arguable it already is). One can look at Japan for their many innovations (early adoptors?). Just the other day I realized I left my house without my wallet but did have my cell phone. I certainly wished I could swipe my smartphone at a register for a latte.

The number one use of cell phones in Japan is the internet (checking e-mails, surfing the web, etc.) You can't type fast on your mobile device because you're not used to it. Typing on cell phones to a Japanese person is second nature. I know this for a fact because I lived in Japan for a long time. この文章も数秒あれば十分書けます。

 

[ctx]

dot mobi is a service market, not a "surf the web" market.