.mobi Death knell for mobile web?

[Rubber Duck]

http://www.siliconrepublic.com/news/news.nv?storyid=single10756

15.04.2008 - The mobile web is “limited at best and dying at worst” said former Yahoo! Mobile evangelist and programmer Russell Beattie as he shut down his mobile browser start-up Mowser barely a year after its launch.
“I don’t actually believe in the mobile web anymore,” said Beattie in a post on his official blog, explaining how he has come to believe that a web experience developed solely for the mobile handset is just not a concept that is taking off.

“Two years ago I was convinced the mobile web would continue to evolve in the west to mimic what was happening in countries like Japan and Korea, but it hasn’t happened, and now I’m sure it isn’t going to.”

Although there are around three billion mobile phones in use worldwide, Beattie claims the argument that this is tilting the online market in favour of the handset over the PC is simply not true because the current browser experience on a handset is not full enough, unless you are using a device like the iPhone or Nokia N95.

“Let’s face it, you really aren’t going to spend any real time or effort browsing the web on your mobile phone unless you’re using Opera Mini or have a smart phone with a decent browser – as any other option is a waste of time, effort and money,” he said.

Mowser was developed by Beattie as a service that takes regular websites developed for a standard PC or Mac browser and optimises or converts them for a mobile experience.

Theoretically, this gave Mowser an unlimited market but Beattie said analysis of the traffic passing though his site showed around 80pc was related to porn with an absence of a general market.

“Let me say that again clearly, the mobile traffic just isn’t there. It’s not there now, and it won’t be,” he said with an air of finality on his blog.

The solution, said Beattie, is the smart phone. Statistics may support this conclusion: a recent survey by US tech trends firm iSuppli showed that US consumers spend on average 12.1pc of their time using the iPhone for the mobile web, while users of other mobile handsets only use the net on their handsets 2.4pc of the time.

 

[DomainTalker]

A couple of points that folks have made above bear expanding on, I think...


(i) Working with a small(er) screen & small type pad.


Many of us over 30 just don't really understand how Gen Y - who've grown from their earliest years with mobile phones in hand - actually use the mobile phone. For them, its normal to text message - at high speed, and very often, and reading it all on a small screen...

For this entire generation they have no problem with what older generations see as a problem - ie small unit communication.....So, imo, for them to surf the web, seek info, perform transactions via a mobile phone, is just life as usual - and, with affordable mobile plan options, they'll move seamlessly from 500 text messages per month each, onto the mobile web for all (or most) of their needs.....They're already used to typing & reading with small pads & screens.


For Gen Y, and others, convenience of mobility will far outweigh what older people regard as 'awkward' manipulation of smaller units.


(ii) Different Expectations


I believe the the way to make sense of the mobile web is to understand that its value lies in a different expectation of use than the traditional use of the internet thus far.

Its true that we are used to using the PC web as a browsing tool, for example, and its possible that we won't do as much of that with current mobile phone technology & design.


But, its not unrealistic, imo, to imagine that there are a vast array of daily activities where the mobile phone becomes the tool of choice....Eg: sports scores, personal financial transactions of all kinds, booking tickets to entertainment and sporting events, checking stock prices, placing bets, porn of all kinds, GPS route mapping, checking property prices...etc etc etc......an unlimited array of useful - convenient - options where we can do these things NOW, wherever we are, Anytime, Anywhere...


In short, convenience will be king...


With convenience driving mobile usage - and people totally used to using small pads & screens in the driving seat (mainly Gen Y, at first) - I think value will be measured by convenient immediacy, and fast task accomplishment - and not luxurious browsing, and deep research. So, the expectations of what they will need, value, and get from mobile internet will be different to the traditional PC-web.


.mobi sites, for me, are not 'dumbing down' the web (with its simpler information presentation) - its making the shift from the 'luxurious browser' web, to the 'convenient immediacy' web, where the user wants it NOW, not LATER - and, is already entirely comfortable with text-based communication.


I can see that those whose experience of the internet has only (or largely) been keyboard & large screen would have trouble understanding the merits of a small screen & small keypad....But, there's an entire generation grown up with exactly that....


Mobile web & .mobi meet the expectations of the entire text-message generation(s) coming up....That's why its unstoppable, imo.

.

 

[mediaadvantages]

I just have one thing to add on here. If people hated typing on a phone so much or hated viewing the internet on their phone then why are smart phones the fastest growing electronic gadget all over the world?? There is no need to buy a smart phone unless you are interested in reading and replying to emails or viewing the mobile web. It may be hard for some to grasp...but just think about that for a little bit.

 

[labrocca]

Well stated coast. I love nothing more than a well laid out argument.

What do you feel are going to be the biggest challenges for mobi that might keep it from penetration of the masses?

 

[NewWorldArk]

The original CEO was replaced and there is a lot more being done by mTLD to reach out to domain name owners to find out what they need, and they are starting to implement it.

And on Behalf of that,
a little something from James Pearce their CTO http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_n7E5f8NjQQ

Credit to HipHop.mobi from the Forum of the One Below.

location: living in exile

and totally not warranted.

...your an absolute class act Scandi !!

 

[coast]

Well stated coast. I love nothing more than a well laid out argument.

Thank you for the compliment.

What do you feel are going to be the biggest challenges for mobi that might keep it from penetration of the masses?

With due respect, I believe that when building something useful to the masses, it is not constructive to name the reason it will fail; otherwise, why bother building in the first place? I believe obstacles are to be overcome, not placed in the path of those who are doing the constructing. I believe answering this question would place further obstacles on the path, so I am going to take a pass.

If, on the other hand, you would like to know what is the likely means for the mobile internet to be accepted by the masses (dot mobi in particular), I would be happy to discuss that with you instead. That's not to say you will be convinced, because it may be that you are in the "I'll believe it when I see it" category, whereas the mobi enthusiasts are in the "I'll see it when I believe it" category. The former is a legitimate position for someone who is looking for a sure thing, and the latter is a legitimate position for someone who has a vision in his or her mind and then is willing to do the work to make the reality fit the picture in his or her head. I fall into the second category. But I digress...

 

[labrocca]

With due respect, I believe that when building something useful to the masses, it is not constructive to name the reason it will fail; otherwise, why bother building in the first place? I believe obstacles are to be overcome, not placed in the path of those who are doing the constructing. I believe answering this question would place further obstacles on the path, so I am going to take a pass.

Interesting...that might be the philosophical difference that creates many of the arguments here. I believe that it's overcoming obstacles that lead to success. If you can know what each hurdle is you must jump then it makes it easier to surpass them. What you are describing to me sounds more like blind faith where you don't open your eyes to any potential problems.

I really don't know what else to say to you. When I read your post it was very interesting because it was very optimistic. I don't consider myself a pessimist but I tend to be able to spot problems with ease. Your rosy picture of mobi and the mobile web now seems to be blinders instead. Maybe if you could view mobi with more of an open mind you wouldn't be as rosy about the future. It's very easy to get into the trap of a yellow brick road.

 

[coast]

What you are describing to me sounds more like blind faith where you don't open your eyes to any potential problems.

My eyes are wide open, thank you very much. I just choose to focus on how to solve those problems rather than creating reasons for something not to work. The biggest threat? That's easy - m dot. However, I don't think the success of one precludes the success of another. Anyone who is smart is diversified.

I really don't know what else to say to you. When I read your post it was very interesting because it was very optimistic. I don't consider myself a pessimist but I tend to be able to spot problems with ease. Your rosy picture of mobi and the mobile web now seems to be blinders instead. Maybe if you could view mobi with more of an open mind you wouldn't be as rosy about the future. It's very easy to get into the trap of a yellow brick road.

I do have an open mind. However, I do know this: mobile advertising is surpassing traditional media at an ever-expanding pace. While most .mobi sites are simple and fast loading for maximum ease of use, others are javascript but are courteous enough to let users know that they need to upgrade their phones if they can't handle the code.

edit: Again, there are .com's making zero dollars parked and there are .mobi's making hundreds with content and advertising. There are .mobi's that make nothing. Domain name selection and development has to be done intelligently to work in any tld.

 

[-REECE-]

Some people were way too optimistic about .mobi and continue to be... I like the extension, have a sizeable investment in it, and expect to make a reasonable profit over time. I don't expect to "get rich quick" off mobi, nor domaining in general...

I have to agree with Jesse wrt domainers largely being followers. I find it somewhat laughable that people hesitated to buy LLLL.coms at $7 and now happily pay $40+ for the same name 6 months afterwards... What's changed, other than renewal fees now being six months closer?

Where this delusion of grandeur comes from, I do not know, but I've noticed people like to believe they have a chance at striking it rich - be it LLLL.coms, .mobi, a lottery ticket... For every person that "gets rich quick", there's a hundred who worked hard and spent little for decades... Why people continue to believe in the Hollywood fairy tale is something I can't understand... Is every 30 year old non-millionaire out there stupid or are a few domainers living in la-la land (aka Hypomanic DN Journal Disorder)?

Where this faulty logic comes from, I have no clue... I'll continue to invest intelligently in .mobi, as I have in LLLL.coms this past year. Investing in "hype", paying "hype-inflated" prices, and truly believing you're on to something huge ahead of the masses is best left for fools and those with money to burn.

edit: And I'd take anything coming from anyone associated with Yahoo with a serious grain of salt.

 

[coast]

Speaking of transcoding,

Sprint PCS is going to mess up your .com but not your .mobi

 

[zambian0]

The generational transition and technological evolution of not just the mobile internet and browsing experience but the entire communication process, will be the key to the survival of .mobi.

It's seems quite clear that the old school of domainers who have embraced, harnessed and profited from the potential of the .com boom are adamant in their dislike and opposition to this tld. Their arguments are valid and certainly applicable, where as the new generation of domain investors who all missed the boat so to speak and me being one of them, have invested and maintained the belief that this will be the new horizon.

There is not doubt that .mobi has potential must it must happen now. A pioneer in this extension is required from both a mass market saturation standpoint and provision of a product that will not only entice users/developers but also the business community as a whole to embrace the mobile web experience.

I really don't believe that over time as most have pointed out, the .mobi will become the benchmark for mobile web users and browsers. The transcoding and other technical characteristics and feautures of this tld will erode over time as advances will surely allow the established domains to again assert their authority and might. It's a fact that the most successful online ventures/tld's/products/businesses have always been the pioneers and the first to enter the market. Examples are plenty and the established benchmarks.

I do have a vested interest in this extension however if .mobi is to ever take off, it must be NOW or never

 

[DomainTalker]

Trying to rep you, coast - but, NP won't let me...


Good work here...

.