Chinese Real Estate bubble has popped. Domain bubble popping next?

[Premium gTLD]

The real Chinese investment money is, or was, in foreign real estate. The sky-high domain valuations based on Chinese investors looking for a place to park some cash followed real estate investing.

If you have an investment model based on purchasing random LLLL.net, LLLLL.com, NNNN.com, NNNNN.com or NNNNNN.com, it might be time to dump as many of those domains as possible right now because it appears the Chinese investment bubble is about to pop.

WSJ - Chinese Pull Back

Chinese Demand for Real Estate Waning

 

[djum]

5% x 3200000 = 160000.

It's not pronouncable, brandable names, but 5 consonants in a row. Western domainers have no purpose for them except for resell to Chinese. I'll be surprised if more than 30-50K is registered by Western domainers in last few months.Only 5-10K of LLLL.net were registered by non-Chinese.

 

[alcy]

well thats what we were talking about.. that 60/40 of them regged by westerners with purpose to resell to chinqa

 

[djum]

My numbers show that 95%+ of 5L chips registrations came from Ename, MAFF, Hangzhou Aiming, BizCn and other Chinese registrars. The few whois I checked showed Chinese names on them.

 

[McDuke]

imo, China is doing what it does best, unhostile takeovers with open arms and big smiles.

 

[DnSpy]

https://www.namepros.com/threads/chinese-perspective.889841/

Chinamobi posted some sales in china

Moreover, When they pull the money from real estate, they need a better place to invest. Of course domain names are better investment . Since internet usage is growing day by day.

and Checkout the Chinese Singles day sales: around 9Billion in hours, compared with last year 2Bn
Which clearly shows Online activity gets improved in China.

moreover , i dont support crappy domains.

I dont know whether Chinese like those domains or not . But it is a speculation of domainers that "chinese may like those domains ".

 

[Templr]

Remember the Chinese gov were selling public the ethos of real estate investing ages ago, way before the paper stocks.

Anyway, I'll keep an eye on the Chinese domain marketplace first.

 

[DomainVP]

I was one of those people warning about a real estate bubble a decade ago. I received the same sort of pushback and downplaying when I brought it up as is being shown in the responses here. If someone's financial and emotional well being is tied to there not be a problem, they will not acknowledge the problem or even the possibility of a problem.

It's not just real estate - China has had their stock market bubble this year, too. They're sending people to jail over that. Their economy, and economic forecasts, have been a house of cards for years, and they're doing whatever they can to keep it going - including naming and blaming 'economic conspirators' and speculators.

Domains as a safe haven investment make no sense. They're second only to physical real estate in-country to being easily discovered and confiscated. If the government in china wants to confiscate a domain they know right where to look - the registrar - and what to do - order them to turn it over or else.

If you had money you wanted to get out of china, and out of reach of the government, would anyone here seriously put it into domains that could be taken away not by physically having to locate it, but by just going to the registrar who they can find in one second?

Well thought out position that makes perfect sense... which is why I concur that nobody will respond or acknowledge it. Just about everyone in domaining has been saying that if the realty market in China goes, so will China domains... but when it goes all of the sudden people want to back track and use 1 day of sales data.

It's December, by late Jan a new story will be written and god only know what that will be - but it's very likely that prices will be a great deal lower than they are today.

Anyone holding a premium position at the prices today that were bought for a fraction of their value or at regfee would be foolish not to at least consider unloading. I hate to keep using BTC as an example, but there were plenty of people that wished their sold their .05 cent BTC at $800 - $900 per, rather than $250 because they held it too long.

Everything is the same, everything ends, and this is likely the end.

 

[djum]

Anyone holding a premium position at the prices today that were bought for a fraction of their value or at regfee would be foolish not to at least consider unloading

Time to unload LLNN, huh?

 

[CJ6]

Time to unload LLNN, huh?

If anyone wants to unload their NNNN, NNN, NN, N, LLNN, LLLL, etc I will repay them their registration fee.

 

[decode]

The real estate bubble, like the market trouble they had should only add to the value of domains. People will look for somewhere safe to invest their money, something that gives them control. We'll see, keep in mind that some of the numerics may be rising from a few large players, my theory on domain values increasing or providing stability is for broad market names.

 

[The New Guy]

The real estate bubble, like the market trouble they had should only add to the value of domains. People will look for somewhere safe to invest their money, something that gives them control. We'll see, keep in mind that some of the numerics may be rising from a few large players, my theory on domain values increasing or providing stability is for broad market names.

The problem is, the money is gone. Poof. It was theoretical riches - fortunes made on paper, except for a select few who cashed out ahead of time. The rest were the poor suckers who made those people rich.

If you want to get an idea of the boom and bust nature of china's economic fads, read stories about the luxury dog bubble. Yes, luxury dog bubble. People were going nuts paying tens, even hundreds of thousands of dollars for dogs because they were popular. Then they stopped being popular and the dogs were abandoned or sold for dog food themselves.

And non chinese buyers as a data point to prove it's not a china only bubble? Ever hear of the greater fool theory of investing? They might not be Chinese buyers, but buyers who think they can sell to chinese buyers, or sell to people who think they can sell to chinese buyers.

Remember, something that can't go on forever, won't. This can't go on forever. One day it's going to pop, and people who bought in at the high will lose money.

And for the "there are only X number of XXXXX type domains" as a rationale - I remember being told "they aren't making any more land" as a reason the real estate bubble would never pop. Well, they didn't make any more land, but it did pop. The problem there is the same as the problem here- people are not selling to end users, they are selling to other people who think they're going to sell it to another user, and hope that somewhere up the chain there is a greater fool to give them more money than they spent.

 

[Wannabean]

All bubbles pop but prices for domains will still rise in the long run. Internet growth (and the internet will grow) means domain values will outperform inflation and prove a solid long term investment.

In the meantime there will be ups and downs. Enjoy the ride

 

[urlurl]

if they are not investing in real-estate they will invest in something else... wasn't the boom in domain investing a result in part of the Chinese pulling the money out of their stock market.

 

[DomainVP]

Time to unload LLNN, huh?

I buy LLNN.COM's for end user use, not to trade as chips.

It won't matter to me what the liquid price of a LLNN, or any domain, ever. My goal is to sell at above-premium end user prices.

I am very specific about the LLNN's I invest in, and if I do have any LLNN's that are 'chips' I bought them so cheap that it does not effect my position because they are already valued at more than what I acquired them at - and rising.

So no, I will not be dropping any LLNN's any time soon.

 

[djum]

So you prefer to be foolish then, in your own words

- holding a premium position Check
- bought for a fraction of their value or at regfee Check
- would be foolish not to at least consider unloading Check

LLNN will be rising when all market rising. If you certain "this is likely the end" then it's foolish to think that everything will crash and LLNN that not even tracked by Chaomi, will be rising.

 

[DomainVP]

So you prefer to be foolish then, in your own words

- holding a premium position Check
- bought for a fraction of their value or at regfee Check
- would be foolish not to at least consider unloading Check

LLNN will be rising when all market rising. If you certain "this is likely the end" then it's foolish to think that everything will crash and LLNN that not even tracked by Chaomi, will be rising.

All of your "CHECKS" are only true IF you bought domains using the 'CHIP' criteria. I own LLNN's I justifiably wouldn't sell for any less than $10k.

Again, I'm not looking to Chip-trade on the rise and fall of the "Chip" market. I buy LLNN's, just as I do LLLL's, based on potential END USER criteria as an undervalued namespace that is starting to pick up steam as a format used by businesses worldwide.

Not looking to get into another nit-pick forum troll back-and-forth with you. Many people have told you the same exact thing in other threads - in the end you do you Dimitri.

 

[djum]

I just find it funny, that you contradicting yourself on many counts, then trying to invent some fantastic explanation, why what you said is true.

A lot of funny people here, one thinks that floor for any LLL.com is 100K, you won't sell LLNN for less than 10K. End users are black swan, they unpredictable. You can think you maximized your chances with certain name, but then sell totally different name for more money than sure shot one.

Here's your chance to load up inventory for $10000 end-user sales
https://www.namepros.com/threads/100-chinese-premium-llnn-com-sale-ft75-nt57-pr71-etc.899334/

 

[RWD]

I'll tell you this about the Chinese and USA real estate. I live (born and raised in northern new England) in a small ivy league college town. The Chinese are buying mountains here (several hundred acre lots) They are investing in everything from ski mountains to Chocolate shops. The Chinese economy over there may be down & hurting but it's because they are moving the big money out of China.... My two cents

 

[djum]

I'll tell you this about the Chinese and USA real estate. I live (born and raised in northern new England) in a small ivy league college town. The Chinese are buying mountains here (several hundred acre lots) They are investing in everything from ski mountains to Chocolate shops. The Chinese economy over there may be down & hurting but it's because they are moving the big money out of China.... My two cents

That has a very good explanation. Every time I go skiing to Pocono or Vail, 1/3 of visitors are Asian. They just love skiing, not sure why, but it is so. Make sense to buy house, so you can stay in when go to the mountain or rent out, to fellow countrymen in other time.

 

[hugegrowth]

Don't know about a Chip domain downturn, there are some NNNNN.com hitting $4,000 each on GD auction today.

 

[alcy]

addd.com

10k today

how about that

 

[headsupp]

addd.com

10k today

how about that

Nuff said.

 

[frank-germany]

there is no point in arguing if the prices will going up or down
you will see the price go up

and you will see the price going down
but not for the same domain


if you want to get out
send me your domains

 

[frank-germany]

Luck is just result of thorough preparation. (c) R. Heinlein.

you can trust him !

if somebody knows about future then Heinlein

 

[djum]

Meanwhile... generic 4L.nets are taking a nosedive while LLNN's have risen... despite what the market is doing.

Imagine that.

Right, generic .nets doing so bad, that I just recently sold 30 in 1 day. And another one for $600 to end user.
So bad they doing.

Remind me how generic LLNN are doing?
The ones with 0,4, A, E, I, O, U, V.
Are they even all bought out yet? Probably not, and you not going to compare generic with generic, you want to compare generic LLLL.net with chip LLNN, lol.

As usual you trying to compare apples with oranges, just like last time April sales with September sales.
Typical @DomainVP pumping LLNN and spreading some anti-LLLL.net propaganda.