Can you give the expiry date?
Edit:
Anyway, here are both scenarios:
If the domain has expired and is within day 0-45 after expiry it will be on auction at namejet with a minimum bid of $69. During this time the expiry date will show as if it is renewed for one more year. For instance if it expired on 15 Feb 2011, on the whois it will show as 15 Feb 2012 however this is not true. Never trust the whois with expired domains.
If it is not sold there it will eventually reach pending delete and will drop on around day 70-75.
How do you know if the domain was not sold in the first auction?
Simple. On day 46, check the whois and the expiration day will go back to 15 Feb 2011.
So here is what you need to do for this specific domain:
Wait until day 50 after expiry. Then check whois. If it shows a date that is in the past in the expiration date area, then the domain will drop. Therefore you need to backorder. Namejet.com backorder costs $69 and Snapnames.com costs $59, but you said you don't want to pay so much. Name.com costs $40 but that's too much too. Therefore you can try a godaddy backorder. It was something like $23. There is also a guy here at namepros who does cheap pending delete dropcathing.
Notice that if the domain is sold in the first auction it will never reach pending delete stage. Also notice that even if reaches pending delete and somebody backorders it at snapnames, you can not beat snapnames with another dropcatcher.
Btw, with this kind questions you need to give two pieces of information: registrar and expiry date. Said that, I have never seen anybody giving both data when asking the same question.