2008 Bubble

[dannbkk]

Today and the way the economy is globally this is the next best thing that could be happening apart from the bubble in 2000 except as Rick Shwartz said in his video on targeted traffic website recently the only difference is instead of people getting away from the internet as they did back than in the bubble they are getting more involved on the internet.

So this is exciting times right now for everyone in the domain name business!

 

[NameCharger]

For actual sites..my revenue clicks have been increasing...care to explain that?

More expensive search bids could be driving more advertisers to the content network.

 

[equity78]

Then maybe people who own so-so domains (which it is unlikely they have pure type in traffic anyway) should use this downturn to trim their portfolio and focus on names they can develop and make more money then from developing. There are many who do not have big parking portfolio's in the first place. I mean the average 18 to 30 year old who got into domaining in 2005 or later does not have the generic portfolio a snoop or Frank Schilling has so maybe the whole hoopla around reg a name become a millionaire can go away and people can find something they like and know about and make money doing it. Again IMO

 

[Seabass]

More expensive search bids could be driving more advertisers to the content network.

That's an interesting thought.

 

[snoop]

Some are saying revenue is decreasing but I only see it for parking. For actual sites..my revenue clicks have been increasing...care to explain that?

Probably due to factors unique to your sites. If you take 10 people's stats you'll come to 10 different conclusions, I haven't heard of any overall trend of rising PPC rates for developed sites.

 

[goodkarmaco]

Wish I knew how to develope. I have a few web sites that I have made, type as you go, not sure how much revenue a person can make with those.

 

[-REECE-]

Now's an excellent time to learn

I hadn't done much in the way of web development for about 5 years and spent a lot of time in 2008 brushing up on everything new. It seems complicated, even a bit scary at first, but it's absolutely worth it in the end.

Certainly beats paying $100-$250+ for mini-sites which take 1 hour to build.

Wish I knew how to develope. I have a few web sites that I have made, type as you go, not sure how much revenue a person can make with those.

 

[maxeaus]

You seem to be quoting two different sets of numbers and drawing a false conclusion from that, the first is correct, it shows TAC rising over that period- ie the opposite to what people are suggesting-margins fell. TAC went from 75% to 77% over the year.

The second link is a completely different number it shows TAC expressed in terms of Google total revenue, not just partner revenue like the figures above do. Showing a figure of 28%-29%

Well i read it different. I read it as margins raised by Google over the last year. Ask anyone using a feed or adsense what their experience is, the proof is in the pudding so to speak.

Im not sure how you come to the conclusion you do. Once Google built up it's customer/publisher base, the margins were raised. As there is little competition now, it is only natural.

This is why the internet needs further competition from other advertising services. The quarterly results clearly show the margins raised. 23%(07) to 28% now.

Google dont offer forward earnings projections, and very seldom give market updates on goings on in the company, you must use past and present information to get a clear overall figure and draw a conclusion.

I have also spoken to several parking companies regarding this and they have confirmed it is the case. Although they are often on fixed traffic contracts they expect the next contracts to be not as good as the current ones, which were not as good as the previous ones before that.

 

[snoop]

Well i read it different. I read it as margins raised by Google over the last year. Ask anyone using a feed or adsense what their experience is, the proof is in the pudding so to speak.

Im not sure how you come to the conclusion you do. Once Google built up it's customer/publisher base, the margins were raised. As there is little competition now, it is only natural.

This is why the internet needs further competition from other advertising services.

You aren't reading it correctly I'm afraid, the TAC mentioned in the first example is 77%, that is the average revenue share paid to affiliates. 23% is Google's share =100%-TAC%= 23%.

To make it clear the TAC stated is 77%, Google profit is 23%. The TAC stated is not 23%.

The second example is a very different number,

"Google added that TAC as a percentage of revenues was 28% versus 29% in the prior year quarter."

That is TAC as a percentage of revenue, Google's entire revenue, not just the revenue from advertising on affiliate (adsense, parking etc) sites.

The quarterly results clearly show the margins raised. 23%(07) to 28% now.

The 28% is not "a margin", it is the opposite, an expense "traffic acquisition cost"

 

[Seabass]

I have also spoken to several parking companies regarding this and they have confirmed it is the case. Although they are often on fixed traffic contracts they expect the next contracts to be not as good as the current ones, which were not as good as the previous ones before that.

What baffles me is how complacent all these parking companies are to keep doing biz as usual......even though signs are everywhere about the lower payouts and the direction of G. To add extra insult now is a economy with a blown head gasket.

They just seem to be sitting around waiting for G to tell them to drop their pants and bend over the barrel. Why would they not be doing more to diversify their offerings to assuage any coming disaster to their earnings?

Really the parking co's are leaving the market challenges up to domainers since they don't want to change the status-quo.

 

[maxeaus]

You aren't reading it correctly I'm afraid, the TAC mentioned in the first example is 77%, that is the average revenue share paid to affiliates. 23% is Google's share =100%-TAC%= 23%.

To make it clear the TAC stated is 77%, Google profit is 23%. The TAC stated is not 23%.

The second example is a very different number,

"Google added that TAC as a percentage of revenues was 28% versus 29% in the prior year quarter."

That is TAC as a percentage of revenue, Google's entire revenue, not just the revenue from advertising on affiliate (adsense, parking etc) sites.



The 28% is not "a margin", it is the opposite, an expense "traffic acquisition cost"

You may actually be right on the second point, as my own research leads me to a higher figure than 28%, maybe in the low 30%'s, which is why i believe the stock analysts were caught short on the quarterly estimates.

Personally i think Google stock is now a strong buy, others obviously think it is a sell, which is why it has fallen so much, although currency moves are partly to blame.

I have no problem with how Google chooses to run it's business model, but it would be nice if they were more open about it IMO. Basically if you, (or i )think there has been no margin change i would be selling stock, increased margins is a buy on the stock.

Its a good way to hedge your bets as a publisher. They have increased their publisher base also which is again good news.

We will have to beg to differ. Thats why investers buy or sell stock is it not?

 

[goodkarmaco]

I'm going to look into classes at my local tech school to develope web sites, I am sick as hell of getting screwed by parking companies and their lack of transparency. They can screw others who have shit names.

My ( at least 200 out of my 500 ) domains do get good traffic. I get pennies for it.

 

[Seabass]

I'm going to look into classes at my local tech school to develope web sites, I am sick as hell of getting screwed by parking companies and their lack of transparency. They can screw others who have shit names.

My ( at least 200 out of my 500 ) domains do get good traffic. I get pennies for it.

There are a lot of nice generics that used to make $5 or $6 dollars a day that only make $2 a day now. I know how you feel. Some of that loss is the economy, but the rest is G's bigger hand in the pie.

I know some guys with some of the best names imaginable, types with 5,000 uniques a day, and even they have been getting nailed.....so G is doing it to everybody. One unbelievably great domain was making $1,500 a day and now struggles to make $350. The guy with that domain is already working on pulling it out of parking and developing it.......especially b/c he says they keep pulling back even more on the earnings every month and he does not know when it will stop.

Looks like I might begrudgingly get back into cranking out sites ; I don't like getting fleeced. I really don't want to do it though. I like finding domains.....it's like looking for buried treasure. I'm giving it another month or so and if things don't improve I'm going to steer this boat towards new waters.....just like you. Right now I am on the fence contemplating what I want to do.

I suspect there is an small army of domainers making some pivotal decisions in their businesses right now. How could they not?

 

[Jasonn]

There are a lot of nice generics that used to make $5 or $6 dollars a day that only make $2 a day now. I know how you feel. Some of that loss is the economy, but the rest is G's bigger hand in the pie.

I know some guys with some of the best names imaginable, types with 5,000 uniques a day, and even they have been getting nailed.....so G is doing it to everybody. One unbelievably great domain was making $1,500 a day and now struggles to make $350. The guy with that domain is already working on pulling it out of parking and developing it.......especially b/c he says they keep pulling back even more on the earnings every month and he does not know when it will stop.

Looks like I might begrudgingly get back into cranking out sites ; I don't like getting fleeced. I really don't want to do it though. I like finding domains.....it's like looking for buried treasure. I'm giving it another month or so and if things don't improve I'm going to steer this boat towards new waters.....just like you. Right now I am on the fence contemplating what I want to do.

I suspect there is an small army of domainers making some pivotal decisions in their businesses right now. How could they not?

Have you tried parked? I believe they use yahoo and not google.

 

[snoop]

You may actually be right on the second point, as my own research leads me to a higher figure than 28%, maybe in the low 30%'s, which is why i believe the stock analysts were caught short on the quarterly estimates.
..............................

We will have to beg to differ. Thats why investers buy or sell stock is it not?

Give it up, your original comments were completely flawed, not much point telling me you have now done your "own research", come back when you have some genuine data.

 

[duceman]

My ppc has gone from an average of .30 RPC to .05 in the last 10 days. Quite amazing .....

 

[Seabass]

Have you tried parked? I believe they use yahoo and not google.

I've been using them since they opened for biz and they have always been just about the best, if not the best.

But lately.....they have gone a little flat too. However, I would never count them out.....they are a stand-up company.

My ppc has gone from an average of .30 RPC to .05 in the last 10 days. Quite amazing .....

I have seen some low days in uniques and RPC lately, but ever since the 22nd of October there has been an unprecedented decline in uniques and RPC, and subsequent earnings. I'm seeing it at Fabulous and Parked..... the two main co's I use.

 

[goodkarmaco]

Sheep get sheared

Seabass you say it well for many of us. If we do navigate to something else, it will drive a spike into the coffin of parking companies everywhere and we would hold the power of the internet. I like what you said, you do not want to do that as you like finding domains as they are hidden treasures.

Evidently the parking companies don't think so. After you get fleeced you tend to protect your asset.

 

[Seabass]

Seabass you say it well for many of us. If we do navigate to something else, it will drive a spike into the coffin of parking companies everywhere and we would hold the power of the internet. I like what you said, you do not want to do that as you like finding domains as they are hidden treasures.

Evidently the parking companies don't think so. After you get fleeced you tend to protect your asset.

Really, the only way to control the internet to any degree would be to control the advertisers and/or the consumers.

A model not reliant on any other vendor is a must. A good example is Universities , com. I'm friends the guy that runs/owns that site......he does not need G, Y, or anyone......just his advertisers that he signed up to accept student applications. He's sitting in a good position.

If we went to BANS, Wordpress, FrontPage, Dreamweaver, whatever to make sites......we would still need to control the advertisers/customers (can't be done at all with BANS). If we rely on Adsense or eBay or any other third party vendor then we will never be in control 100%.

It'll be a long time a comin' before domainers make the move....I'm sure it would be slow and gradual.....if ever. Domainers are generally scared of development. Only an axe dropping by G or Y would cause the needed pandemonium for a mass exodus and a collapse of parking co's, or another 50% drop in earnings.

We may see just that happen, however.

 

[labrocca]

I have one site with 4 seperate revenue streams. The biggest earner..I have forum members buy VIP access for a small fee. That small fee adds up. You need to diversify your streams in lots of directions to protect against downturns in a sector. I have parking, google, adbrite, clients, members, and direct ad sales all earning for me at any given time. Oh...plus whatever I make from domain or site sales.

 

[Seabass]

I have one site with 4 seperate revenue streams. The biggest earner..I have forum members buy VIP access for a small fee. That small fee adds up. You need to diversify your streams in lots of directions to protect against downturns in a sector. I have parking, google, adbrite, clients, members, and direct ad sales all earning for me at any given time. Oh...plus whatever I make from domain or site sales.

That's a sweet position. I'm not very diversified at all, other than an exceptionally well diversified portfolio of domains......but it does not seem to be helping with the downturn since G, and maybe Y, are taking the money back from every niche in parking. Even the ones in a downturn that get better traffic now are still not paying what they should/did.

I wonder what someone like Frank Schilling would do if the plug was pulled on him? Send it to Ask? Hard to imagine though.