2008 Bubble

[dannbkk]

Today and the way the economy is globally this is the next best thing that could be happening apart from the bubble in 2000 except as Rick Shwartz said in his video on targeted traffic website recently the only difference is instead of people getting away from the internet as they did back than in the bubble they are getting more involved on the internet.

So this is exciting times right now for everyone in the domain name business!

 

[-REECE-]

Some October sales:
ZQR.com $4600
WXQ.com $4610
ZXW.com $5000
VWX.com $5000
I have a link in my sig to the LLL.com thread if you'd like full data on recent sales.

Can you show me some recent sales in that range? Would love to see them. Not that I don't believe you but would like to for myself what's going for that low and where. I might grab a couple.

 

[dannbkk]

I think sooner or later between 3 letter and 5 letters there will be a similar profit line.
As soon as we get more domainers investing in 6 letter this is when we will know that all the rest are going to always go up in value.

 

[dbtbandit67]

i dont know much about google, and their recent policy modifications, and how that may be giving domainers a hard time.. but i know this.

google does not dictate our future. we dictate our future. if we, as domainers, do not succeed, it will not be google's fault. it will be our fault.

there is a certain danger in exerting much energy staying angry at another company, instead of figuring out ways we can innovate. i am optimistic about the future. these are the best days of our lives, and right now is the best time to do business

just as long as a site is getting hits, the potential for monetization is there. we just need to figure it out.

 

[snoop]

It is public knowledge Googles margins are up, PPC/advertising revenue down.

If you are going to make this claim then please post the *actual figures* from Google results, I don't think this is the case at all. I've never seen any actual data that would support it.

Have a look at DBS,s (fabulous.com) quarterly profit compared to Googles quarterly profit. Google has been protecting it's share price at the expense of everyone, plus flexing it's monopoly control on advertising.

A large % of darkbluesea's revenue fall on their own portfolio is due to the very strong Australian dollar over the last quarter, continue quality control by Google very likely had an effect aswell. All parking co's have fixed revenue shares with Google so no real opportunity for Google to increase margins on an account like that. If they were going to do it it would happen on the little guys account and their is no evidence of that from Googles results either.

 

[-REECE-]

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AUDUSD=X&t=3m

If you are going to make this claim then please post the *actual figures* from Google results, I don't think this is the case at all. I've never seen any actual data that would support it.



A large % of darkbluesea's revenue fall on their own portfolio is due to the very strong Australian dollar over the last quarter, continue quality control by Google very likely had an effect aswell. All parking co's have fixed revenue shares with Google so no real opportunity for Google to increase margins on an account like that. If they were going to do it it would happen on the little guys account and their is no evidence of that from Googles results either.

 

[snoop]

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AUDUSD=X&t=3m

DBS's last lot of reports related to April-June, that was when the AUD was nearing it peaks. The graph above relates to the quater just ended (for which they have no released any results). Need to look at a graph of a couple of years to apprecate how much the Australian dollar had been rising over the previous year.

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AUDUSD=X&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

 

[Seabass]

All parking co's have fixed revenue shares with Google so no real opportunity for Google to increase margins on an account like that. If they were going to do it it would happen on the little guys account and their is no evidence of that from Googles results either.

The parking co's are allowed to audit Google to make sure they "Do no evil", but so far none have taken Google up on that supposedly from fear of retribution.

So the parking co's are as clueless as you or I what is going on.....except from maybe some inside source chatter.

I'm fairly certain I had also read that they had cut back payments for external traffic ...... I think I read it in G's 2nd quarter report...not sure.

 

[dannbkk]

these are the best days of our lives, and right now is the best time to do business

Totally agreed, and this is why I started this thread!

More companies are going under and individuals are either being fired or leaving their jobs now and are sitting at home and are being cautious with their money and are looking for other means and particularly making money on the internet is really what everyone is turning to in 2008.

You only have to look at the statistics of how many individuals are already using their time and how they see valueon the internet now more so in 2008. The millions of users on facebook is one example that how people can get easily influenced to one area on the internet and than hooked. Many domainers and Internet Investors and developers feel this same feeling.

So i think people are realising this time around..

This is why right now the difference between the bubble back in 2000 and now is that people have walked away from the internet back than in the bubble and realised how much they lost or opportunities they had lost if they had of just been in the game.

 

[-REECE-]

To quote Snoop, "Don't try to catch a falling knife".

If Google axes domain parking, the situation for most domains isn't going to improve anytime soon. Even as is, people are seriously kidding themselves if they don't think a severe recession will hurt advertising revenue -- Google reports huge revenue, yet look what the share price is at. Doesn't look like your average Google investor is bullish at present, nor should they be.

Domainers are even more exposed to the elements -- any decision Google takes affects us directly and hence, anything which detrimentally affects Google also affects us.

UDRP decisions are coming back more often lately ruling that auto-generated content which domainers have no control over can be evidence of bad faith on non-generic domains.

Lots of uncertainty at present.

Totally agreed, and this is why I started this thread!

More companies are going under and individuals are either being fired or leaving their jobs now and are sitting at home and are being cautious with their money and are looking for other means and particularly making money on the internet is really what everyone is turning to in 2008.

You only have to look at the statistics of how many individuals are already using their time and how they see valueon the internet now more so in 2008. The millions of users on facebook is one example that how people can get easily influenced to one area on the internet and than hooked. Many domainers and Internet Investors and developers feel this same feeling.

So i think people are realising this time around..

This is why right now the difference between the bubble back in 2000 and now is that people have walked away from the internet back than in the bubble and realised how much they lost or opportunities they had lost if they had of just been in the game.

 

[snoop]

To quote Snoop, "Don't try to catch a falling knife".

If Google axes domain parking, the situation for most domains isn't going to improve anytime soon. Even as is, people are seriously kidding themselves if they don't think a severe recession will hurt advertising revenue -- Google reports huge revenue, yet look what the share price is at. Doesn't look like your average Google investor is bullish at present, nor should they be.

Domainers are even more exposed to the elements -- any decision Google takes affects us directly and hence, anything which detrimentally affects Google also affects us.

UDRP decisions are coming back more often lately ruling that auto-generated content which domainers have no control over can be evidence of bad faith on non-generic domains.

Lots of uncertainty at present.

What I would say about parking is that it is one of only two external sources of cashflow for this industry, the other being enduser sales. Personally I would much rather be exposed to parking that any other element in this industry, it doesn't depend on other domainers coming into the industry and to a degree that revenue is based on sales generated by advertisers. Enduser sales are very exposed to economic conditions in my view, those purchases generally don't have a particularly clear ROI.

If Google and Yahoo axed parking (very unlikely in my view) the whole industry would go down like a lemon though. All we'd be left with would be enduser sales and in a recesssion they will be weak. There would be no liquidity in the reseller market. I wouldn't like to see domain prices if parking went down, it wouldn't be pretty.

Regading UDRP etc, I don't think is any great tide of decisions against domainers or parking, it is like it always was in terms of some decisions being perceived as bad for domainers or parking. In a recession though I think we will see the UDRP and courts getting used less. Who wants to spend a whole lot of money on lawyers when your company is struggling?

 

[Seabass]

In a recession though I think we will see the UDRP and courts getting used less. Who wants to spend a whole lot of money on lawyers when your company is struggling?

I know we are not technically in a recession, but as soon as the sh*t hit the financial fan I got UDRP'd on a one word generic domain I have owned since Oct. 1995..... the other company never even contacted me to voice a concern. They just want the domain. I spoke to Berryhill (great guy), and he thinks the other party has no chance.

Anyhow.....I'm convinced they thought it was an opportune time to serve me a plate of crap to see if I would walk away from the dinner table. Instead I sent the plate back to the chef.

 

[dbtbandit67]

you guys are forgetting extremely important sources of income, and thats advertising revenue as a result of developing a site that people would like coming to, and have a benefit in coming to. even if parked pages were taken away, internet growth is on the rise.

not everyone on namepros is a re-seller, or into buying a bunch of domains and simply parking them. it's not appropriate to think that a passive system of parking domains could be set up, and you could expect to live off that forever.

domains, like all business, are susceptible to change, and we have to evolve and adapt as well. it's inconvenient, but that's how we're going to survive the tides

 

[-REECE-]

I would estimate 90%+ of NPers are pure domainers and/or "expert mini-site" developers. There aren't many domainers who have websites more complicated than a forum -- that's just a reality of domaining today.

Ask 10 domainers what AJAX stands for or even how to implement it. Ask them about the latest W3C web standards or about SEO beyond link building and article submissions... Most won't have a clue what you're talking about.

you guys are forgetting extremely important sources of income, and thats advertising revenue as a result of developing a site that people would like coming to, and have a benefit in coming to. even if parked pages were taken away, internet growth is on the rise.

not everyone on namepros is a re-seller, or into buying a bunch of domains and simply parking them. it's not appropriate to think that a passive system of parking domains could be set up, and you could expect to live off that forever.

domains, like all business, are susceptible to change, and we have to evolve and adapt as well. it's inconvenient, but that's how we're going to survive the tides

 

[snoop]

not everyone on namepros is a re-seller, or into buying a bunch of domains and simply parking them.

For anyone who owns more than a handful of domains that is what they are doing. That's what domaining is, making money from the name isself. Some people have lots of sites with average quality content to try and attract search engines visits though at the end of the day it is little different to parking and has the the same quality perception issues.

 

[cache]

it is a great time to buy

 

[maxeaus]

If you are going to make this claim then please post the *actual figures* from Google results, I don't think this is the case at all. I've never seen any actual data that would support it..

Here it is, public information from one year ago, no 3 on google for traffic aquisition costs (TAC), 23% and people were starting to complain.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/10/22/dont-get-cocky-google.aspx

If they were going to do it it would happen on the little guys account and their is no evidence of that from Googles results either.

Heres the latest quartely report, it's now 28%, down from 29% last quarter!!!
Again read the TAC. This is only a Nasdaq company report, hardly public!


http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/N...tle=Google Q3 EPS tops estimate; shares surge

Nope, no evidence to suggest this at all!

For those statistically challenged this is the margin Google take from Adsense publishers.

 

[goodkarmaco]

One thing is for sure, many, many names are not being renewed as more and more of us need that money for household expenses. It pains me to keep renewing when nothing is going on. We like our names yet some have to fall due to economic conditions.

 

[NameCharger]

Google's revenue is growing because they're ripping off me, you, and every single domainer and webmaster who uses them as an upstream provider.

Diving deeper into the evil monopoly that M$ wanted to become, one finds that the big g is also ripping off advertisers as well by tightening up quality scores & revealing bid prices to get 1st page. Over the past month I've seen some of the highly competitive verticals have to increase bids 30-60% to get to 1st page.

 

[labrocca]

not everyone on namepros is a re-seller, or into buying a bunch of domains and simply parking them. it's not appropriate to think that a passive system of parking domains could be set up, and you could expect to live off that forever.

Not everyone but surely the vast majority.

I would estimate 90%+ of NPers are pure domainers and/or "expert mini-site" developers. There aren't many domainers who have websites more complicated than a forum -- that's just a reality of domaining today.

Ask 10 domainers what AJAX stands for or even how to implement it. Ask them about the latest W3C web standards or about SEO beyond link building and article submissions... Most won't have a clue what you're talking about.

lol...Reece you and I are probably the only two people in this thread that can do it without a google search. My development skills are getting extensive. I even sysadmin my own servers and right now my largest income is client work. I don't even advertise here for that stuff either.

One thing is for sure, many, many names are not being renewed as more and more of us need that money for household expenses. It pains me to keep renewing when nothing is going on. We like our names yet some have to fall due to economic conditions.

As my development gets stronger I am starting to get more focused and letting a lot of stuff go that I know I don't have time to develop. I like having domains and selling them but pruning my 500+ domains down to a nice 200-250 would please me greatly. The hard part is deciding what to sell, what to drop, and what to renew. I wish I could have 25 sites instead of the 100+ I have. However I have an addiction to buying. Grr..

Over the past month I've seen some of the highly competitive verticals have to increase bids 30-60% to get to 1st page.

Yup and as a publisher it's making me happy. Some are saying revenue is decreasing but I only see it for parking. For actual sites..my revenue clicks have been increasing...care to explain that?

 

[snoop]

Here it is, public information from one year ago, no 3 on google for traffic aquisition costs (TAC), 23% and people were starting to complain.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2007/10/22/dont-get-cocky-google.aspx


Heres the latest quartely report, it's now 28%, down from 29% last quarter!!!
Again read the TAC. This is only a Nasdaq company report, hardly public!

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/N...tle=Google Q3 EPS tops estimate; shares surge

Nope, no evidence to suggest this at all!

For those statistically challenged this is the margin Google take from Adsense publishers.

You seem to be quoting two different sets of numbers and drawing a false conclusion from that, the first is correct, it shows TAC rising over that period- ie the opposite to what people are suggesting-margins fell. TAC went from 75% to 77% over the year.

The second link is a completely different number it shows TAC expressed in terms of Google total revenue, not just partner revenue like the figures above do. Showing a figure of 28%-29%