2008 Bubble

[dannbkk]

Today and the way the economy is globally this is the next best thing that could be happening apart from the bubble in 2000 except as Rick Shwartz said in his video on targeted traffic website recently the only difference is instead of people getting away from the internet as they did back than in the bubble they are getting more involved on the internet.

So this is exciting times right now for everyone in the domain name business!

 

[maxeaus]

Yes and no i think. Buying in a falling market is hard work let me tell you, selling in a falling market is even harder. If this crisis drags on for years then eveyone will be affected in some way.

It will be exciting when there is a recovery that's for sure. The internet has been the last sector to be hit in this financial mess, lets hope it is the first to recover.

 

[GoneWalkabout]

If there are any historical lessons to be learned from the past then they are that, in a time of recession, the bullsh^t is removed from the table.

Only those with great common sense or practical innovation will win through.

If we are not seeing it already, we will soon see the flight to quality names (and therefore higher prices) in the .com sector but the reduction in value in lower quality names in that area. People no longer want to take the same kind of chances as before and will pay more for the stability of generic names over 'brandables'.

I also see a move toward the more innovative alternatives to .com names. For almost all televisual projects I see the .TV doing very well. Recent large sales are proving the point.

As for domain names in general the future for good quality names is as bright as ever. The biggest problem may come from the reduction in advertising revenue.

 

[Seabass]

Today and the way the economy is globally this is the next best thing that could be happening apart from the bubble in 2000 except as Rick Shwartz said in his video on targeted traffic website recently the only difference is instead of people getting away from the internet as they did back than in the bubble they are getting more involved on the internet.

So this is exciting times right now for everyone in the domain name business!

Are they using the Net more? It would stand to reason......but I am seeing lower uniques across the board...... except on domains that have to do with certain financial info. like CDRates, dollar crash, currency conversion, etc......

 

[dbtbandit67]

i agree and disagree. gentlemen, these are the best days of our lives. and take advantage of it. this is the absolute best time to do business, especially in domains, don't let anyone telling you otherwise.

however, i don't believe that a bubble is growing. bubbles typically grow during prosperity, when people become overconfident and overpay. when these bubbles pop, the following is in a recession. right now we are in a recession. so i dont see any bubbles growing in most industries any time soon.

as google's profits have shown, the internet will continue to grow even in today's times

 

[-REECE-]

Google's revenue is growing because they're ripping off me, you, and every single domainer and webmaster who uses them as an upstream provider.

Those domains which were making $10-$15/year are barely breaking even in many cases now and VeriSign gouging us during a recession isn't making things better.

Brandables have already taken a large hit (many down 80%+) -- I expect it's time for "dictionary domains" and multi-keyword domains to take another hit. Between the 2 extremes of generics and the junk which gets sold on a revenue multiple, there's a lot of domains which really stand to lose significantly if Google continues (and why wouldn't they?) to rip domainers off more and more in an effort to appease their shareholders.

 

[goodkarmaco]

Reece is seeing this the way it is. A big slowdown, all across the board. I would be happy to own food bank .com right now. That is a search term that will grow greatly soon!

 

[snoop]

I also see a move toward the more innovative alternatives to .com names. For almost all televisual projects I see the .TV doing very well. Recent large sales are proving the point.

Hang on, didn't you just say "the bullsh^t is removed from the table." in times like this?

Google's revenue is growing because they're ripping off me, you, and every single domainer and webmaster who uses them as an upstream provider.

I've never seen any evidence of Google's margins from external traffic growing in any significant way. The concept of Google "ripping people off" is somewhat of a myth in my view. What is happening is Google and Yahoo are tightening things significantly in terms of quality control , plus advertising "supply" seems to be increasing fairly quickly.

 

[dbtbandit67]

Google's revenue is growing because they're ripping off me, you, and every single domainer and webmaster who uses them as an upstream provider.

Those domains which were making $10-$15/year are barely breaking even in many cases now and VeriSign gouging us during a recession isn't making things better.

Brandables have already taken a large hit (many down 80%+) -- I expect it's time for "dictionary domains" and multi-keyword domains to take another hit. Between the 2 extremes of generics and the junk which gets sold on a revenue multiple, there's a lot of domains which really stand to lose significantly if Google continues (and why wouldn't they?) to rip domainers off more and more in an effort to appease their shareholders.

try to understand where google is coming from. how many ad-clicks result in sales? in today's economy, i bet not a lot

i am as optimistic as ever in the business of domaining. if we're not happy with adsense/bidvertiser, it's our responsibility to innovate, and find different ways to monetize sites

if i had an established site drawing a lot of visitors, i would think about negotiating privately with advertisers. you have more control over what the ads look like, where their located, what they say, etc.

 

[-REECE-]

"Traffic Quality" just another way to give domainers the short end of the stick. Other than CPA, how exactly does one differentiate traffic quality beyond location and click fraud? Google won't give us an answer to that one, now will they? They'll pull your feed if they so please without even giving you a reason.

Do no evil.

I've never seen any evidence of Google's margins from external traffic growing in any significant way. The concept of Google "ripping people off" is somewhat of a myth in my view. What is happening is Google and Yahoo are tightening things significantly in terms of quality control , plus advertising "supply" seems to be increasing fairly quickly.

 

[labrocca]

The internet is about websites. Domains are just the location. It's search engines that provide most of the traffic. Take away parking and domaining gets cut down to a smaller percentage for most.

Earnings for most is about ad revenue. Advertisers if wanting to cut budgets start first imho at the parking level. Networks like Adsense will continue to generate income and Google is tightening it's output for parking. All my sites are continuing to earn while anything I have parked has been disappointing.

 

[-REECE-]

There's no way (at least to my knowledge) Google can prevent people from squatting domains and subsequently setting them up with Google ad feeds. Google profits from cybersquatting/typosquatting just the same, if not moreso than the person who actually registers and parks the trademark infringing domain.

With how much Google has grown over the years and how small a slice type-in traffic is of their advertising revenue, I really wonder how long it'll be before they pull the plug on domain parking altogether. They really have nothing to gain and potentially everything to lose if companies start going after Google en masse for being complicit, and to a large extent, being the reason for cybersquatting.

 

[labrocca]

There's no way (at least to my knowledge) Google can prevent people from squatting domains and subsequently setting them up with Google ad feeds

Easily. Make it against their TOS which it partially is already (MFA's) and then ban accounts and don't pay them (which they often do).

They really have nothing to gain and potentially everything to lose if companies start going after Google en masse for being complicit, and to a large extent, being the reason for cybersquatting.

Yup...that's why imho it's inevitable.

 

[Seabass]

I agree with Labrocca and Reece.

I have noticed some key advertisers on both Yahoo and Google pulling out of a couple niche markets I like to buy domains in, and consequently my earnings have gone down.......

I also agree that Google is stealing/taking back......whatever.....b/c I have been watching the stats on some of these domains for over ten years and that is my conclusion. It's just to fishy to accept anymore. Some of the income dips are incredible. Funny thing is I am now starting to experience the same thing with Yahoo..... which typically has been more stable income for me.

Earnings have pulled back so far over the last year and a half, and Google's earnings are always rosy...... so where do we draw the line?

 

[snoop]

Other than CPA, how exactly does one differentiate traffic quality beyond location and click fraud?

I think they largely use conversion data to gauge traffic quality.

 

[dannbkk]

I think every website owner who is serious about making money from ppc should put half their ads in google and the other half of ads from yahoo and see which makes more money.

I also heard someone who bought a website on Iraq made alot of money too.

But I think the overall domain business particularly with buying and selling is going to be even more profitable over the next coming months if not years as this is a time in the economy that people are struggling and losing business, their homes and are in desperate need and some in which may have nothing else left but domains which they would be prepared to sell at crazy prices.

So I think the market will have a few bargains mixed in somewhere as the prices correct themself. 3 letter.com's went low, and is slowly getting back up again, and may stay low or go lower again too? but regardless , I think we are in for a wonderful ride.

 

[labrocca]

3 letter.com's went low, and is slowly getting back up again

I keep reading this as if it's true. LLL.com's dipped back to what they were 6 months ago. If anything they just rose too much too quickly. Had you bought a LLL.com a year ago it would have been about $3500 where right now it's still over $6000. How in any stretch of the imagination is that low? Even if you had bought at it's peak 3-4 months ago for $7500. You're still worth over $6000. Again..hardly a drop. Compare that to housing or even the stock market. Many people have had their 401ks drop by as much as 50%.

The dow is down about 40% from a year ago but was declining already for the entire year. That's not true for dot coms.

IMHO though...market investment is probably the best bet for higher returns as a rebound of even 20% will gain an investor good return.

 

[-REECE-]

LLL.coms are at min wholesale around $4500 right now -- 3Character.com is way off this month. Considering they've been going up at a similar rate since 2003, seemingly month after month without correction, this certainly is noteworthy. Compare $4500 today versus $7600 in June -- very big drop over the past few months.

I keep reading this as if it's true. LLL.com's dipped back to what they were 6 months ago. If anything they just rose too much too quickly. Had you bought a LLL.com a year ago it would have been about $3500 where right now it's still over $6000. How in any stretch of the imagination is that low? Even if you had bought at it's peak 3-4 months ago for $7500. You're still worth over $6000. Again..hardly a drop. Compare that to housing or even the stock market. Many people have had their 401ks drop by as much as 50%.

The dow is down about 40% from a year ago but was declining already for the entire year. That's not true for dot coms.

IMHO though...market investment is probably the best bet for higher returns as a rebound of even 20% will gain an investor good return.

 

[maxeaus]

I've never seen any evidence of Google's margins from external traffic growing in any significant way. The concept of Google "ripping people off" is somewhat of a myth in my view. What is happening is Google and Yahoo are tightening things significantly in terms of quality control , plus advertising "supply" seems to be increasing fairly quickly.

It is public knowledge Googles margins are up, PPC/advertising revenue down. Have a look at DBS,s (fabulous.com) quarterly profit compared to Googles quarterly profit. Google has been protecting it's share price at the expense of everyone, plus flexing it's monopoly control on advertising.

 

[labrocca]

LLL.coms are at min wholesale around $4500 right now

Can you show me some recent sales in that range? Would love to see them. Not that I don't believe you but would like to for myself what's going for that low and where. I might grab a couple.