discuss What is happening to domaining? Is it in crisis?

[infosec3]

This is an observation based on the low activity I see in the domain forums and other venues. For instance, lately, I have visited other domain forums and there are instances where you can see zero or only a handful of registered members connected. Even here on NamePros, the level of activity seems to have decreased.

On Clubhouse, for example, there used to be a lot of activity, with auctions where participants could count on at least a few sales per week (wholesale price).

But that is no longer the case. I know the economic crisis has deeply impacted the business, of course, but I ask myself if there are many domain investors who have given up and moved on? What do you think?

 

[kor]

why on earth your post got downvoted?

Because they post AI-generated content.

 

[.X.]

sales are still so-so , not great, but i have seen worse. the industry is making small to medium corrections. it will pick back up as usual.

 

[Hypersot]

@kor,
thanks for the heads-up. I never thought that AI would write 'That being said,' in a sentence. We learn something everyday.

 

[karmaco]

[off-topic]
@Zouniact ,
why on earth your post got downvoted?

Seriously, I'm seeing this trend lately with posts getting randomly downvoted. Am I missing something in what the up and down arrows are there for?

Could it be his post reads as generated not from his own thoughts? Considering 90% of his other postings are two words thanking Bob its not a stretch.

Just a thought after a quick look at it. Not sure what the downvotes reasoning was.

 

[karmaco]

@kor,
thanks for the heads-up. I never thought that AI would write 'That being said,' in a sentence. We learn something everyday.

That is one of the clues. As is furthermore. Its meant to sound conversational.

 

[basitchamp]

The domain industry undergoes changes, but it is not in crisis. Demand for quality domain names remains strong as businesses recognize their importance in establishing an online presence. Despite challenges, domaining continues to thrive.

 

[satsdifference.com]

gen z got interested in .eth but thats a sunk costs new.net failure imo

 

[satsdifference.com]

how about the state of NP

they keep restricting , banning, closing threads like never before can't even chat or share domains you own hardly

erasing this too?

its np you mean thats lacking chat!

https://www.namepros.com/threads/new-net.1165725/page-2#posts why closing most imp!

 

[eyedomainous]

While high-value namespace remains indispensable, the domain name game ecosystem is in perpetual crises because its all name and no game.

~90% of the ~2 Billion domains online are inactive... and most of those are Banned "Domaining" Pages.

Its hard to sell end-users on the value of domain names when its ecosystem is a banned wasteland. And, many former buyers are not future buyers because the names bought were banned and costly to index.

Like in real estate, and other industries, toxic feedback loops from over-exploited resources results in Loss.

This 'Loss' is evident in simple things like people not 'surfing the web' anymore -because there's too much junk online. To the actual end of website growth... and the namespace ecosystem beginning to contract ('die'), even as more people get online.

In the June 2023 survey we received responses from 1,106,671,903 sites across 255,487,423 domains and 12,106,503 web-facing computers. This reflects a loss of 2.7 million sites, 16.0 million domains, and an increase of 69,309 web-facing computers.
https://www.netcraft.com/blog/june-2023-web-server-survey/

 

[tonyk2000]

In the June 2023 survey we received responses from 1,106,671,903

Such an automated survey is meaningless. Hope they will receive 0 "responses" one day. Another bot? Many webhosting companies and/or website owners banned them already, on IP level, or would ban earlier or later.

This reflects a loss of 2.7 million sites, 16.0 million domains

This may also reflect how many sites are banning just one more spider or datagrabber

 

[Bob Hawkes]

Thanks for starting a discussion on an important topic, @infosec3 .

In terms of domain investing overall, I would say that the current time is probably more challenging than the last few years, for a few reasons, but mainly the state of the economy and business confidence. The domains in demand continue to change to some degree, and the domain sales rate is probably down, although it is difficult to say that with certainty with so many unreported sales. Rising auction prices, rising renewal fees, and higher interest rates are all challenges for domain investors. BTW thanks so much for the very illuminating data on venture capital by quarter, @Lox.

In terms of forums, as others noted, activity probably has some seasonal variation. I have not been on NamePros as long as many, but it seems to me it is a natural state that new investors are very active for awhile, then many drift away, while a few stay on long term.

Social media, particularly Twitter, has deflected some activity. I have always found it a little inconsistent that domain investors who (correctly) point out to potential buyers how important it is to own and use your own domain name, themselves invest so much time in a platform that is outside their control, and, increasingly of late, seems to change procedures on a whim. Anyway, just an observation, and something I felt long before the change in ownership.

I am surprised, and pleased, that NamePros remains so incredibly active. Other than a few general purpose discussion platforms, I literally cannot think of any forum in any other area that is nearly as big and active as NamePros. Hats off to those who maintained the technical strength of site over the years, the difficult balance of how much moderation, and in particular to each member who make this a worthwhile place to come to daily because of the quality information and points of view that are shared here every hour of every day.

So I don't think we are in crisis.

Thanks for the contributions in this discussion, everyone.

-Bob

 

[Mkt Sales Leads]

There is very little new in this business IMO creativity is at an all time low. But that's just my opinion I could be wrong.

This has been said before more than once on Domain Sherpa as well as on Twitter.

Even some OG domainers are reluctant to come to Namescon because they don't feel there's anything new/valuable to learn.

For now, people are happy to make their money quietly.

 

[Lox]

Networking - Build Your Connections ... AND LET the Word-of-mouth do the rest.

(Since Jan 2020 (Covid) the World reverted to the modern version of Word-of-mouth.)

Start now but 1st ... learn the difference between networking vs spamming.

(Search engine, social engine, landing pages, marketplaces, etc .... just a bunch of tools to get you started.)

Regards

 

[kor]

Networking - Build Your Connections ... AND LET the Word-of-mouth do the rest.

Could you elaborate this a bit more please?

 

[eyedomainous]

Such an automated survey is meaningless. Hope they will receive 0 "responses" one day. Another bot? Many webhosting companies and/or website owners banned them already, on IP level, or would ban earlier or later.

Then please provide a meaningful, non-automated, web server survey.

This may also reflect how many sites are banning just one more spider or data grabber

The Netcraft, monthly, web server survey is just that a SERVER survey. Servers, including proxy servers, can be counted. While hiding a server can be done, at a cost, its like having an 'unknown' phone number... it simply is not a smart move to get on the web to "hide" yourself and/or your business.

Of course, hidden servers host cybercrime domains... but Netcraft is in the business of finding them.
Also, because cybercrime domains victimize half-a-billion people, and cost the global economy Trillion$ each year, it makes my point that the domain ecosystem is in crisis.

Yes, Netcraft is just one data source... but they have been in the 'Cybercrime Disruption and Internet Data Mining' business for 30 years, provide a free monthly web survey, serve clients like the UK.gov and their tech has won awards, and has been incorporated into major software corps like Microsoft.

So I don't think we are in crisis.

For full context please read Bob's complete post above.

I hate to put it this way but... one of the signs of an ecosystem in crises is a steady increase in the number of rodent and scavenger species, and their heightened level of chatter... as the 'big game' predators have 'moved on' to other hunting grounds, or have been wiped-out... by 'development'.

Any biz ecosystem that sells ~1%, YoY, is in crises. Beyond that, check the boxes that apply to domaining:

The good news: the ecosystem has no place to go but up. But we need to move past denial and get to work.

 

[tonyk2000]

Servers, including proxy servers, can be counted.

Of course, hidden servers host cybercrime domains... but Netcraft is in the business of finding them.

Technically, server is a computer running (web)server software, which can host one or more websites. One may run a server A which hosts just one website, and a server B which hosts 1000 websites. Lets count them: 1+1. So, what does number 2 mean in any meaningful context? Nothing. So-called "survery" does not (and can not) count hosted websites. And, a good sysadmin would in many cases simply block parasiting non-human traffic from accessing the servers he manages (so such a survey would fortunately be unable to access and count his active servers). He woud be doing this not because he hosts cybercrime, but to protect his network from cybercriminals and non-human parasitic traffic. Which is why TOR is blocked in many places - it is 99,999% bot traffic trying to find and explore vulnerabilities. Amazon ec2 and OVH are other examples of bot traffic sources (I mean unwanted bots). Also, it is also the reason why cloudflare, which was originally used as anti-DDOS solution, is much more frequently used to filer bots. If the website is using cloudflare or alternative - then its original IP address is not public (cannot be found, accessed or "counted"). Btw, cybercriminials are now more advanced, they own webhosting companies and use own IP ranges.
All the above is sort of offtopic here. Typing it just to show that "webserver survey" is meaningless both in hosting industry context and in domaining industry context.

 

[twiki]

I have to step in and note that there is a lot of ignorance in this thread. Also, it has derailed offtopic.

People dislike bots for some reason, whatever that is (fake traffic and whatnot).

Bots are tools. Like a hammer, they can be used for good or bad. Either for nails, or for breaking someone's head. This doesn't make bots bad.

However, a lot of today's technology depends on bots. The basic Google search? Depends on bots. About everything we use also depends on it. In fact 95% of traffic is bot generated (and I had the chance to measure it firsthand).

AWS and OVH are just 2 cloud providers out there. About any other cloud provider that allows crawling could host bots, or spiders or crawlers by older names. Is that bad? Well it depends on what they do.

Many of NP here surely do SEO. The biggest bot providers out threre are Ahrefs, Majestic etc. You're gonna see these hitting your site more often than others. Why? Because the nature of the service requires it, massive scan of everything out there. And it's a positive service many use.

Now people who secure servers and protect stuff? They also use platforms that run such bots.

Note: I've been working on a system based on worldwide scan that is approaching launch.

One of the 3 applications we will provide is called OSINT, which is nothing else than "open source intelligence". Basically gathering data that can be found open source. We don't scan for vulnerabilities; it's more similar to a search engine, but security researchers can use the system to find data to guide them, such as header or page data. And yes it all relies on a large amount of bots.

We're also going to offer a privacy global search engine (think DuckDuckGo but with its own data) with an API that can be used for various things, and a backlink service API.

We might also offer domain services but will see. Such as an new breed of TLD checker and domain insights etc. In fact, our database is, in essence, a domain database as well.

These are all good things, relying on bot technology. But again, it depends on the moral of the user rather than the technology itself. Just like AI, bots can be used for great things or bad things but that doesn't make them good or bad.

Oh, and networks don't block any bots instantly... but those scanning for vulnerabilities, yes.

We do have a similar database now and I could replicate the same results. Indeed it has been astonishing how few working sites are out there. 98% or so of domains are either dead, parked or in any case not doing anything useful. The content world is not the visible part of the iceberg, but rather only a small portion on the tip of it.

Anyway, interesting discussion but hope it doesn't derail further.

Oh, and for whoever doesn't see yet, we're in a recession, folks. Don't be afraid to call it by name.

That's all there is, no surprise here. All that money printing... duh!

 

[Datalife]

I noticed Godaddy Appraisal has changed its algo recently, and downgraded all domains by quite a bit.

Does this exert a negative impact too? I'm sure it does.

 

[twiki]

I noticed Godaddy Appraisal has changed its algo recently, and downgraded all domains by quite a bit.

Does this exert a negative impact too? I'm sure it does.

The tool is based on actual sales data so ... it makes sense to downgrade.

I'm pretty sure though that buying power and spending restraint are the factors, not necessarily what the tool says.

 

[eyedomainous]

V

 

[eyedomainous]

Technically, server is a computer running (web)server software, which can host one or more websites. One may run a server A which hosts just one website, and a server B which hosts 1000 websites. Lets count them: 1+1. So, what does number 2 mean in any meaningful context? Nothing. So-called "survery" does not (and can not) count hosted websites. And, a good sysadmin would in many cases simply block parasiting non-human traffic from accessing the servers he manages (so such a survey would fortunately be unable to access and count his active servers). He woud be doing this not because he hosts cybercrime, but to protect his network from cybercriminals and non-human parasitic traffic. Which is why TOR is blocked in many places - it is 99,999% bot traffic trying to find and explore vulnerabilities. Amazon ec2 and OVH are other examples of bot traffic sources (I mean unwanted bots). Also, it is also the reason why cloudflare, which was originally used as anti-DDOS solution, is much more frequently used to filer bots. If the website is using cloudflare or alternative - then its original IP address is not public (cannot be found, accessed or "counted"). Btw, cybercriminials are now more advanced, they own webhosting companies and use own IP ranges.
All the above is sort of offtopic here. Typing it just to show that "webserver survey" is meaningless both in hosting industry context and in domaining industry context.

Most folks understand web server and site surveys, like all automated surveys, provide meaningful approximate results... that people, industry and Govs use to make estimates.

There are ways to detect servers that can't be blocked, and Netcraft explains how to locate hidden servers:
https://www.netcraft.com/solutions/other-solutions/internet-data-research/

This issue is meaningless. Provide exact domain data, or live with the estimated counts.

 

[Jeff_Libert]

There was a time, ~1999 - 2001, when folks shared a bit more.

As time passed those who did realized there were a fair number of folks who also "knew stuff" but kept such info to themselves. This caused many to question sharing useful insights, often insights that had a "learning cost" of time and money. This lead to "why give it away for free" thinking.

Then there was the time of STFU messaging, that is, "your sharing will kill the goose that is laying the golden eggs". Think: exact match domains. People keep talking about them. Google says "Enough already!" and changes their algo.

Then, as economies move up and down, folks also realize they have better things to do than "be chatty".

Then came wave after wave of folks want to make a name for themselves, to stand out from the crowd, and so much of the volume of content was just about the incessant need to publish. No significant value. Much parroting of one another. Etc.

Somewhere along the way domaining, competitive SEO of websites, etc. became global and the entire process became more competitive / challenging and, as a result, there was less time to kill chatting or even less desire to share.

FWIW, I learned a long time ago that once people began publicly chatting about ~keys to success those keys rarely held any advantage. Those who work hard on carving out or creating an advantage would usually already be 2 or 3 steps ahead of what the "public experts" were touting. (Heck, 20 years ago I learned that if any "secret" was so good at making money NOBODY - at least in their right mind - would be sharing that secret, even at a paid monthly fee rate).

FWIW, odds are you have no idea how others who are making coin domaining are doing. It invariably comes down to the quality of the domains that you hold and how rational your pricing is . . and how patient you can afford to be . . and what your personal cash flow is and how good you are at cash flow management . . which ties into patience. In other words, can you afford to be patient.

I see very little opportunity in the current market. I see the same old same old "shilling" of new TLDs. Anyone rememeber the hype about .mobi domains? Ditto .info for informational websites? The folks that buy the hype rarely have success in reselling the hype.

There's still the market for those attemtping to acquire a winning lottery ticket by crafting catchy or creative domains. As far as I can see that's just like the lottery: you can spend a lot of money on those lottery tickets and NEVER win or win back a small percentage of what you have laid out.

I wish everyone all the luck in the world but, AFAIC or AFAICanSee, the odds of success as a domainer in 2023 are more challenging than ever.

Lastly, I don't publcly report my sales, but I've had a few in 2023 so - after ~25 years - I'm still in the game . . but . . meh . . in some respects domaining is a bit more of a PITA than it was in 2007 or '08 or '13 or '15.

I wistfully remember the days when domain parking revenue could support a LARGE portfolio's renewal costs and still provide a nice net-revenue stream. Now? Meh.

Still, if you hold a number of decent domains, you can cover renewals fees . . up to the point where the registrars or central registry keeps jacking up prices . . and then, as you drop domains to conserve cash flow . . you watch . . sometimes painfully . . as noobs or machines pick up your droppings in hopes of better days. #SMH #Sigh

 

[Hypersot]

FWIW, I learned a long time ago that once people began publicly chatting about ~keys to success those keys rarely held any advantage. Those who work hard on carving out or creating an advantage would usually already be 2 or 3 steps ahead of what the "public experts" were touting. (Heck, 20 years ago I learned that if any "secret" was so good at making money NOBODY - at least in their right mind - would be sharing that secret, even at a paid monthly fee rate).

It seems that a lot of domainers fail to grasp that small but important fact.

Thanks for a great post.

 

[twiki]

There was a time, ~1999 - 2001, when folks shared a bit more.

As time passed those who did realized there were a fair number of folks who also "knew stuff" but kept such info to themselves. This caused many to question sharing useful insights, often insights that had a "learning cost" of time and money. This lead to "why give it away for free" thinking.

Then there was the time of STFU messaging, that is, "your sharing will kill the goose that is laying the golden eggs". Think: exact match domains. People keep talking about them. Google says "Enough already!" and changes their algo.

Then, as economies move up and down, folks also realize they have better things to do than "be chatty".

Then came wave after wave of folks want to make a name for themselves, to stand out from the crowd, and so much of the volume of content was just about the incessant need to publish. No significant value. Much parroting of one another. Etc.

Somewhere along the way domaining, competitive SEO of websites, etc. became global and the entire process became more competitive / challenging and, as a result, there was less time to kill chatting or even less desire to share.

FWIW, I learned a long time ago that once people began publicly chatting about ~keys to success those keys rarely held any advantage. Those who work hard on carving out or creating an advantage would usually already be 2 or 3 steps ahead of what the "public experts" were touting. (Heck, 20 years ago I learned that if any "secret" was so good at making money NOBODY - at least in their right mind - would be sharing that secret, even at a paid monthly fee rate).

FWIW, odds are you have no idea how others who are making coin domaining are doing. It invariably comes down to the quality of the domains that you hold and how rational your pricing is . . and how patient you can afford to be . . and what your personal cash flow is and how good you are at cash flow management . . which ties into patience. In other words, can you afford to be patient.

I see very little opportunity in the current market. I see the same old same old "shilling" of new TLDs. Anyone rememeber the hype about .mobi domains? Ditto .info for informational websites? The folks that buy the hype rarely have success in reselling the hype.

There's still the market for those attemtping to acquire a winning lottery ticket by crafting catchy or creative domains. As far as I can see that's just like the lottery: you can spend a lot of money on those lottery tickets and NEVER win or win back a small percentage of what you have laid out.

I wish everyone all the luck in the world but, AFAIC or AFAICanSee, the odds of success as a domainer in 2023 are more challenging than ever.

Lastly, I don't publcly report my sales, but I've had a few in 2023 so - after ~25 years - I'm still in the game . . but . . meh . . in some respects domaining is a bit more of a PITA than it was in 2007 or '08 or '13 or '15.

I wistfully remember the days when domain parking revenue could support a LARGE portfolio's renewal costs and still provide a nice net-revenue stream. Now? Meh.

Still, if you hold a number of decent domains, you can cover renewals fees . . up to the point where the registrars or central registry keeps jacking up prices . . and then, as you drop domains to conserve cash flow . . you watch . . sometimes painfully . . as noobs or machines pick up your droppings in hopes of better days. #SMH #Sigh

Hmm. I just realized I'm doing better than I was aware.

I agree to you in everything. I saw the old times, although I was very inexperienced back then and got out of the game, and came back in way too late without any portfolio. If only I kept the old names.

I've been quite worried this year, but not because I cannot pay for renewals from domain sales. I have a sinking larger operation with another unrelated business line going bust. (BTW new great IT projects are rolling, but it takes time to get to profit with that) .

I was worried about a sinking ship, and domain revenue has been covered like half of the business and more. Which means I saw there is not much room to float. But while I was more or less afloat overall, domains have actually still bringing significant positive return - including in 2023.

In that, I realize now, I'm quite lucky. Especially running with a fleet of not-so-impressive drops and handregs - all being, of course, just handregs.

I do not agree with those that claim business as usual. It might be business as usual but only for a small number of investors who have a large profit margin. For most folks here, trading run-of-the-mill domains (more or less), times are rough. In that, again, I feel lucky right now.

Thanks for this. It has helped me perceive the actual situation correctly; which in turn helps me to not worry anymore - at least for the wrong thing.

 

[Grego85]

What about the NP marketplace? Anyone else noticed very little action there lately? Seems like nothing is selling.