The future of .COM after new gTLDs boom! Big DROP?!

[New.Life]

According to the data and this simple chart:

http://www.registrarstats.com/TLDDomainCounts.aspx

Is there a BIG drop? Coming soon?

 

[dordomai]

. Remember kids born in 2000 will be salary earners in 2018, and will become a substantial part of the work force by 2020. They are the ones who "grew up" with NGTLD's and they will be the ones that big companies will be targeting to capture their disposable income

They don't grow up with nGTLDs. They used .com for most of their lives. This will not change much in the next 2-3 years.

Today less than 1% of web traffic is going to nGTLDs probably much less than that. They are not more exposed so much more than anyone else. Why is this so hard to accept?

There is still virtually zero exposure in terms of ad spending in this age group while billions of dollars going to .com. .

Maybe the next generation, the ones born today will be exposed more. As I said above, main consumer spending is always 40+. You need to wait for 40 years before they start moving and leading the market and that's optimistic or 20 years before they enter the workforce.

Can you wait 20-40 years?

 

[slader23]

Can you use paragraphs? :D

Can you not comment with irrelevant semantics?

 

[ZapNano]

Looks like the line continues to go up according to that chart. I imagine it'll be even better in the future once people smarten up, adjust and start rolling with the king. Could be a big drop in new gtlds next Summer, realization setting in etc. Might be a temp hit on .com as well, remember people getting caught up in all that Chinese this and that and buying all kinds of crap, weird combos etc.*** That drop is coming as well. But after that, back to the normal upward trend.

*** as an example, those 5Ls. See them on sale here at NP in bulk for .50 cents each. All that is going to drop.

The chart stat includes: NEW, DELETED, TRANSFERED AND GRACE PERIOD DOMAIN NAMES.

 

[slader23]

They don't grow up with nGTLDs. They used .com for most of their lives. This will not change much in the next 2-3 years.

Today less than 1% of web traffic is going to nGTLDs probably much less than that. They are not more exposed than anyone else. Why is this so hard to accept?

There is still virtually zero exposure in terms of ad spending in this age group while billions of dollars going to .com. .

Maybe the next generation, the ones born today will be exposed more. As I said above, main consumer spending is always 40+. You need to wait for 40 years before they start moving and leading the market and that's optimistic or 20 years before they enter the workforce.

Can you wait 20-40 years?

This is wrong. The highest purchasing power is given to those in the 40+ range, yes but who are they spending it on? Their kids. Who makes up for the majority of online sales? The young. Who is Nike trying to peddle their next Lebron too? Kids ages 12-21. It's much more complex than what your trying to describe. 1% today but I doubt that will be the same in 5 or 10 years. Also, I can easily wait 20 years, I'm in my 20's right now its not a problem.

 

[dordomai]

This is wrong. The highest purchasing power is given to those in the 40+ range, yes but who are they spending it on? Their kids. Who makes up for the majority of online sales? The young. Who is Nike trying to peddle their next Lebron too? Kids ages 12-21. It's much more complex than what your trying to describe. 1% today but I doubt that will be the same in 5 or 10 years. Also, I can easily wait 20 years, I'm in my 20's right now its not a problem.

Ok then report us your sales in 2036.

 

[slader23]

Ok then report us your sales in 2036.

I bet your the same guy who'd ask .com owners in 1996 to report their sales in 2016. This isn't a pissing contest, stop making surface level arguments and deal with the reality of whats happening and whats to come.

 

[dordomai]

I bet your the same guy who'd ask .com owners in 1996 to report their sales in 2016. This isn't a pissing contest, stop making surface level arguments and deal with the reality of whats happening and whats to come.

Millennials already got used to .com(they grew up with it) so the nGTLDs are too late for this group.

 

[GoKaizen]

Millennials already got used to .com(they grew up with it) so the nGTLDs are too late for this group.

Yup!

Of the 25-34 year-olds surveyed, 77.6% chose ‘I trust .co.uk and .com domains’

https://varn.co.uk/10/27/70-of-people-dont-trust-newer-website-domains/

 

[slader23]

Millennials already got used to .com(they grew up with it) so the nGTLDs are too late for this group.

As I suspected, you don't even understand the catalyst group that will initiate the change. A millennial is a person reaching adulthood at around the year 2000. NGTLD's are for generation Z not generation Y, we are heading towards the post millennial era, those born between 1995 and 2014.

 

[dordomai]

Yup!



https://varn.co.uk/10/27/70-of-people-dont-trust-newer-website-domains/

, and while 29.1% of men said that they trust all domains the same, only 22.9% of women felt the same. We also found big differences in results when comparing the different age ranges of the UK, as younger respondents seemed much less trusting of new domains than their older counterparts.

according to this the younger trust them less, maybe because they are more internet savy and learned to associate them with spam.

As I suspected, you don't even understand the catalyst group that will initiate the change

what makes you so sure that they will be changing something? Maybe they will block them?

 

[slader23]

according to this the younger trust them less, maybe because they are more internet savy and learned to associate them with spam.



what makes you so sure that they will be changing something? Maybe they will block them?

I'm sure amazon haters thought the same way with Amazon Go. What makes you so sure that they will be changing something? Maybe they will block them? The next generation is always more efficient than its predecessors and the technology/social systems/ economy reflect that. The internet evolves the same way. We have passed the first phase and are entering the second. If you don't believe me why not get the ugly truth from the guy who you can thank for your all your domains in the first place, Paul Mockapetris the creator of the DNS. I'm sure he'll explain things in a more concise manner. This was 3 years ago BTW. If you want to skip the part on name collisions, start at 5:00.

 

[Kuffy]

I already said that. Read carefully. Good .coms will get even more expensive, for now.

Apologies. I got a bit put off by the large block of text, so I'm afraid I missed your post.

 

[slader23]

Apologies. I got a bit put off by the large block of text, so I'm afraid I missed your post.

No problem, at least your nice about it .

 

[wormfood]

I strongly believe that domain investors should be holding onto their premium ngtlds, not trying to flip them. Fast money is a notion perpetuated by this forum but when it comes to taking advantage of new frontiers, its better to wait and let the market appreciate so you can maximize your ROI.

There aren't very many investors that have "premium" ones because good stuff is being held back at premium prices.
You can't even *have* very many high quality domains in one of these TLDs because there are usually so few things that fit nicely. That's why generic extensions that just mean "this is a website" work so well. It leaves everything open..
For example, regarding .repair..
A generic TLD doesn't force you to try and come up with something that ends in repair like rapid.repair or to keep from using the word repair in your name (so that the domain doesn't sound stupid). You can get repairexperts.com, repairexperts.co.uk.. What are you going to do, register repairexperts.repair or experts.repair? Would you really want to own experts.repair if you were the Repair Experts? That's not very memorable and doesn't match your brand correctly.
Or is there .expert(s) already?

Now I'm considering.. what would be decent in .repair?
adjective.repair
producttoberepaired.repair
adjective + product.repair
place + product.repair
place + adjective.repair
brandables like autoexperts.repair

It's unlikely anyone is going to pay you a premium for the last three. That leaves how many product and adjective domains for investment?
And like I said before, you're cutting out all the other ways a brand name or generic can be written.
You can't even use synonyms in it without sounding kinda dumb, imo. WeFixPhones.repair. At least it looks better than WeRepairPhones.repair though.
In .com, you can have AutoRepairSpecialists.com, AutoRepairExperts.com, etc.

Random question: what are you going to do about other languages.. make new TLDs in every language?

Oh yeah, sorry about my paragraph comment. It just annoyed me a bit.

 

[platey]

.com is recognised globaly as the global standard extension and i don't see that changing any time soon

the big bucks are for nn.? And LL.?

.com

 

[slader23]

There aren't very many investors that have "premium" ones because good stuff is being held back at premium prices.
You can't even *have* very many high quality domains in one of these TLDs because there are usually so few things that fit nicely. That's why generic extensions that just mean "this is a website" work so well. It leaves everything open..
For example, regarding .repair..
A generic TLD doesn't force you to try and come up with something that ends in repair like rapid.repair or to keep from using the word repair in your name (so that the domain doesn't sound stupid). You can get repairexperts.com, repairexperts.co.uk.. What are you going to do, register repairexperts.repair or experts.repair? Would you really want to own experts.repair if you were the Repair Experts? That's not very memorable and doesn't match your brand correctly.
Or is there .expert(s) already?

Now I'm considering.. what would be decent in .repair?
adjective.repair
producttoberepaired.repair
adjective + product.repair
place + product.repair
place + adjective.repair
brandables like autoexperts.repair

It's unlikely anyone is going to pay you a premium for the last three. That leaves how many product and adjective domains for investment?
And like I said before, you're cutting out all the other ways a brand name or generic can be written.
You can't even use synonyms in it without sounding kinda dumb, imo. WeFixPhones.repair. At least it looks better than WeRepairPhones.repair though.
In .com, you can have AutoRepairSpecialists.com, AutoRepairExperts.com, etc.

Random question: what are you going to do about other languages.. make new TLDs in every language?

Oh yeah, sorry about my paragraph comment. It just annoyed me a bit.

There is Repair.Expert because there is a .expert ngtld. Also when it comes to repair names I own one of the best ones in the ngtld, which I got dropped for non premium renewals, Rapid.Repair. I plan on holding this for a minimum of 5 years.

Your not going to find many better because in that entire tld there are less than 1000 good one word combinations. When it comes to ngtlds the most value goes to perfect keyword strings like Work.Place, Net.Work and Heart.Surgery , Function alliterations like Rapid.Repair and commonly used phrases like Easy. Credit, Simple.Tax and others. Value drops off a cliff once you have two words+ngtld, unless its something absolutely spectacular.

There have already been new tlds in other languages. French(.Paris), Spanish(.Casa and .Juegos), German (.reisen) and Japanese IDN ngtlds already exist don't be surprised when more show up as the internet evolves further. These other language ngtlds are targeted to native speakers so I don't expect a lot of movement in them until ngtlds become adopted more. In terms of value these are the least valuable extensions, except for maybe .juegos because it means games in Spanish.

 

[dordomai]

There aren't very many investors that have "premium" ones because good stuff is being held back at premium prices.
You can't even *have* very many high quality domains in one of these TLDs because there are usually so few things that fit nicely. That's why generic extensions that just mean "this is a website" work so well. It leaves everything open..
For example, regarding .repair..
A generic TLD doesn't force you to try and come up with something that ends in repair like rapid.repair or to keep from using the word repair in your name (so that the domain doesn't sound stupid). You can get repairexperts.com, repairexperts.co.uk.. What are you going to do, register repairexperts.repair or experts.repair? Would you really want to own experts.repair if you were the Repair Experts? That's not very memorable and doesn't match your brand correctly.
Or is there .expert(s) already?

Now I'm considering.. what would be decent in .repair?
adjective.repair
producttoberepaired.repair
adjective + product.repair
place + product.repair
place + adjective.repair
brandables like autoexperts.repair

It's unlikely anyone is going to pay you a premium for the last three. That leaves how many product and adjective domains for investment?
And like I said before, you're cutting out all the other ways a brand name or generic can be written.
You can't even use synonyms in it without sounding kinda dumb, imo. WeFixPhones.repair. At least it looks better than WeRepairPhones.repair though.
In .com, you can have AutoRepairSpecialists.com, AutoRepairExperts.com, etc.

Random question: what are you going to do about other languages.. make new TLDs in every language?

Oh yeah, sorry about my paragraph comment. It just annoyed me a bit.

at the moment the trend is towards short and generic extensions like .to, .co, .io but not long words on the right of the dot.

this type of one extension for each niche looks cute if you use the best examples but horrible if you use poor ones.

It is also relatively limited and can only serve a part of the market. It is in some way also backwards. Having each website under it's appropriate niche extension reminds me of pre-2000 directory style navigation.

It is clumsy and inefficient and inflexible and requires operating thousands of extensions and registries.

That's a horrible solution IMO. It's not modern. It's backwards in some ways.

I don't think it stands a chance of being adapted or replacing the current navigation system.

More generic domains like .online or .web will do better in that regard. They make more sense and are more compatible with what we have.

Large brands would have they power to cause change by moving everything to their .brand but I don't see anything gained from that only disadvantages.

So my guess is .niche will remain an alternative choice and .brand will be used for various non-consumer niche operations of large corporations.

Extensions like .online and .web will behave similar to .co and .net

 

[slader23]

.com is recognised globaly as the global standard extension and i don't see that changing any time soon

the big bucks are for nn.? And LL.?

.com

I see LL.com NN.com and 1 word .com getting a lot more expensive in the future. However middle tier domains will get cheaper because that is where the price ceiling of premium ngtlds will end up in the short run. Premium NGTLDs provide consumer choice for the middle bracket of domain buyers, which will bring down the prices of middle tier .com premiums because of increased competition, i.e two word .com vs one word ngtld string this is were there will be an incredible amount of competition.

 

[dordomai]

The major players are all losing money despite having other revenue streams as well.

http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/mmx.L?ltr=1
http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/name
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/cnic.L?ltr=1

 

[slader23]

at the moment the trend is towards short and generic extensions like .to, .co, .io but not long words on the right of the dot.

this type of one extension for each niche looks cute if you use the best examples but horrible if you use poor ones.

It is also relatively limited and can only serve a part of the market. It is in some way also backwards. Having each website under it's appropriate niche extension reminds me of pre-2000 directory style navigation.

It is clumsy and inefficient and inflexible and requires operating thousands of extensions and registries.

That's a horrible solution IMO. It's not modern. It's backwards in some ways.

I don't think it stands a chance of being adapted or replacing the current navigation system.

More generic domains like .online or .web will do better in that regard. They make more sense and are more compatible with what we have.

Large brands would have they power to cause change by moving everything to their .brand but I don't see anything gained from that only disadvantages.

So my guess is .niche will remain an alternative choice and .brand will be used for various non-consumer niche operations of large corporations.

Extensions like .online and .web will behave similar to .co and .net

Thankfully the creator of the DNS doesn't think the way you do. It is more efficient because each niche is segmented by registry and regulated by the owners of that registry. This adoption is a reflection of how humans have advanced technology. Your computer and software is itemized into folders and directories, your files are itemized by the extension .exe, .rar, .iso, .html, .tar, .pdf, .csv, .xls, .doc, .bin and many more, even companies use these types of systems to distinguish their operation structures. Unfortunately, few people are able to understand how clear and logical the adoption of ngtlds are to the evolution of the internet because they can only view things from a simplistic perspective.

 

[dordomai]

Thankfully the creator of the DNS doesn't think the way you do. It is more efficient because each niche is segmented by registry and regulated by the owners of that registry. This adoption is a reflection of how humans have advanced technology. Your computer and software is itemized into folders directories, your files are itemized by the extension .exe, .rar, .iso, .html, .tar, .pdf, .csv, .xls, .doc, .bin and many more, even companies use these types of systems to distinguish their operation structures. Unfortunately, few people are able to understand how clear and logical the adoption of ngtlds are to the evolution of the internet because they can only view things from a basic perspective.

little to do with logic. More with money(your money too). Look at the people involved and behind it then you get an idea what the intent was.

 

[wormfood]

It would be interesting to quantify / estimate how many domains are "investable" (long-term) in a certain new TLD, and then look up the reg fees and renewals of those domains.
Like I argued before, there are just too many ways that it can look ugly and sound bad.. and leave out nice brands and generics (where will those have to go, yea, .com or ccTLD.) Yes, there are some great word.word ones, but the question is how many, and how much do they cost? Especially to renew.. (the prices can reduce over time though, I guess. hopefully they won't go up on people )

 

[slader23]

little to do with logic. More with money(your money too). Look at the people involved and behind it then you get an idea what the intent was.

Everything has to do with money and saying it has nothing to do with logic belittles the work of the people who made it their life's work to develop the system you exploit to sell your domains. They knew this time would come and as my referenced video shows they also believe that this adoption is the next step in the evolution of the internet, otherwise we will stagnate and the system will ossify. Money fuels both logical and illogical endeavors, you could say the same thing with power, love and lust..its just human nature.

 

[dordomai]

Everything has to do with money and saying it has nothing to do with logic belittles the work of the people who made it their life's work to develop the system you exploit to sell your domains, they knew this time would come and as my referenced video shows they also believe that this adoption is the next step in the evolution of the internet, otherwise we will stagnate and the system will ossify. Money fuels both logical and illogical endeavors, you could say the same thing with power, love and lust..its just human nature.

the nGTLDs were primary a money grab for a few registries and ICANN sold their soul for short-term profits. That is what happened. Consumers never wanted them. Business never wanted them. Techies didn't want them.

The game is now mostly about finding someone to buy a product that has little demand.

 

[wormfood]

The argument that .com is "too saturated" is a bit crazy.
It's like saying that there is not enough land left on Earth.. so we'd better start moving to other planets.

No, people die and their domains expire or their businesses fail etc. Then we can reuse them..
Or domainers die or fail at domaining lol..and drop their domains. Just joking, of course there are many reasons.
Plus, there is *almost always* a decent way you can append a word or thing to your domain and still have a presentable .com. Or you can get the .net (In other words, you're moving to the suburbs? :P)

But by no means do we *need* new tlds right now because we are "running out of space."
There will probably be many more people coming online, but I think that will boost ccTLDs, not these new extensions.