If there are a large number of names that drop, (which I think will be the case), I think the total number of .info registrations in Jan 2006 will be significantly higher than they were at the beginning of Sept, 2004, which is what, I'm sure, Afilias is also aware of, and counting on.
The group of .info names that will have the largest number of drops will be, of course, the names that are simply, just poor names- the one's that people rushed to reg, w/o giving much thought to what they were regging, and just wanted to get something in, to take advantage of the free offers. As most of you will recall, a little more than year ago, there was quite a carnival atmosphere, and many of us, including myself, were getting out there w/ some of our picks and regging a fair number of novelty names, that were cool, and a kick to put on the, "my info regs" show and tell threads, but are we really going to pay to hold onto some of these for another year when they come due?
It is easy, for anyone running mass searches, to see, that there is an inordinant amount of names that are registered only in the .com and .info tld's. These are the names that will take the second biggest hit in .info drops. Names that were good enough to draw interest, but not quite strong enough to warrant paying for them back than, and in many, (but not all), instances, are not strong enough terms for the other tlds to have been regged during the course of the past year.
There are also many cases in which a name was already regged in one or more of the other tld's, because the name fit particularly well, themeatically, w/ the other exts, and the .info domain was the latecomer which is showing the most recent creation date. This group, will have the strongest hold for the .infos that were new regs over the past year.
The bottom line, IMHO, is that Afilias infused life into .info, increased the number of total registrations in a massive way, and gave it a powerful kickstart, which will result in speeding up the tld's growth and enhance it's continued success. When, (relative to the norm), .info names appear to start dropping en masse, there will be cries of "Look what's happenning to . info! It's falling apart! I told everyone that .info sucks!"
But when the dust settles, after the good names that have dropped are picked up and again active, sitting in the smart domainer's porfolios, the nubers will show that the total number of .info registrations dwarf those of last year. Than, after a brief adjustment period, the value of .info domains will begin to climb and climb and climb. (IMHO)