I think they will use .com or .cn for their actual site as long as they expect / want traffic from around the world. I think they will use IDN.IDN for forwards to those sites, especially if they are not already well known. They can market the IDN.IDN inside of china as it's something more memorable and unique to get more traffic. I have a feeling any IDN, as long as both sides of the dot work together, will be very popular!
There are a lot of IDN you didn't list, those are good too, for the most part. I particularly like 机构 (agency) right now. It has ~330 registrations and almost 2 years old. There is huge opportunity there as many single characters are still available! It's like being able to register a single char .net or .org today! I have made posts concerning why this is so neglected, but no1 has any real answers.
Everyone wants to look professional, and these could be used for email accounts too! Use agency for example, and a person named xue shao, say they're in the business of taxes. using English their email might be
[email protected]. or something pinyin, problem is, those are translations, they can be forgotten or not even understood! But using IDN:
薛邵@税.机构 means the same thing, but it is a lot easier for a Chinese person to remember than those others.
Put yourself in their shoes, what makes sense, which do you appreciate? Finally people are starting to realize that IDN could be the next big thing.