The future of .COM after new gTLDs boom! Big DROP?!

[New.Life]

According to the data and this simple chart:

http://www.registrarstats.com/TLDDomainCounts.aspx

Is there a BIG drop? Coming soon?

 

[JB Lions]

And since we'll be going into year 4 with new gtlds.

And first site was 1991, what happened 4 years later with .com? The only true domaining gold rush. 1995, give or take a year or so is when most of the truly premium keywords were gobbled up. Not happening here and the truly premium keywords in new gtlds are gobbled up by the registries, you fight over the leftovers (of extensions people settle for)

 

[New.Life]

about 95% as there weren't many other extensions out other than .net,/QUOTE]
...

I like it! I catched you!
Please list of startups! And please - %

 

[168]

So you mixed in 8 that aren't even new gtlds. And above about not .com, mixing in country codes and other extensions that are not new gtlds.



Next year we'll be going into year 4. Those new gtlds are there for those newly funded startups to use, around 2%. Tell me how around 2% is a great number. About 98% of newly funded startups are choosing something other than a new gtld, using DNGeek as a source. If somebody has other sources that go thru the startups and what they use, please post.

re read my post " It says , SOMETHING OTHER THAN .COM Nowhere does it say New "G"s
Yet another attempt to skew what I said to make yourself look ?
Your only quoting 1 source. Really ? I wouldn't hire you. Sorry. ( you can attack me for copy/paste again)
Like I already told you, do your own research.
I would greatly appreciate it if you refrained yourself until you do.
Happy Hunting

 

[New.Life]

And since we'll be going into year 4 with new gtlds.

And first site was 1991, what happened 4 years later with .com? The only true domaining gold rush. 1995, give or take a year or so is when most of the truly premium keywords were gobbled up. Not happening here and the truly premium keywords in new gtlds are gobbled up by the registries, you fight over the leftovers (of extensions people settle for)

Once again!

I just got domain "tech.care" about 3 weeks ago... Why do you talking about 3 years?!

So... you want me to sell it right away?! ...or what?

I can find buyer for less than 1 week!

https://www.google.com/search?q="tech+care"&biw=1600&bih=794&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjIgdzf6uHQAhUIPiYKHY-TDxEQ_AUICCgD


but... WHY?!

I know what I do!

And I know what will be!

 

[New.Life]

about 95% as there weren't many other extensions out other than .net

Nice - .NET

Friday Dec. 9, 2016.

http://www.registrarstats.com/TLDDomainCounts.aspx

 

[New.Life]

Why you skipped previous post?

"Who knew 40 years ago what sex.com means?"

Not, this one:

Theoretically, use The Time machine and give them all of this (sites, browsers) in 1987.

Will HELP .COM? NO!

What will HELP? TIME! + KNOWLEDGE + TECHNOLOGY .... + MASS MEDIA

 

[168]

And since we'll be going into year 4 with new gtlds.

And first site was 1991, what happened 4 years later with .com? The only true domaining gold rush. 1995, give or take a year or so is when most of the truly premium keywords were gobbled up. Not happening here and the truly premium keywords in new gtlds are gobbled up by the registries, you fight over the leftovers (of extensions people settle for)

Whot??
If you were paying attention there were a lot of premiums at regular fees. Since then some of the hold backs have been released,
some of the high reg fees have been reduced and will most likely continue to go down. Boo hoo the parties over. NOT.

Here's the history
It took .com 6 years to get 2m+ registrations with zero competition which is where the New "G"s were in 1 with hundreds of competitors
It took 8 years to get to 20+m registrations 1992 to 2000, which is where the New "G"s are in 3 with hundreds of competition
It took 12 years to get to a growth rally. Most of the growth for legacy's occurred in the last 12 years.

"1995, give or take a year or so is when most of the truly premium keywords were gobbled up"
You left out, "By investors not end users". You left out ".Com had a monopoly in the market from 1991 to 2013"
You left out, The first and second intro of new tlds were crap and most were restricted.

You left out 100 for 2 year reg, then eventually 70. and now .99cents-8.00

How convenient to compare a start up to an established monopoly
How convenient you assert a parallel of the first 6 years/no competition vs 3years/hundreds of competitors

Happy Hunting

 

[Bram C.]

Whot??
If you were paying attention there were a lot of premiums at regular fees. Since then some of the hold backs have been released,
some of the high reg fees have been reduced and will most likely continue to go down. Boo hoo the parties over. NOT.

Some new gTLD registries lowered their (renewal) fees yes. And some of the reserved domains have since then been released. Most registries however did no such thing. The "premium" keywords (at least what these registries are considering premium) with a lot of registries are still reserved or premium priced. Take the example of .blog which recently launched. I got spammed by them asking me to get bram.blog (my first name) for "only" $500 USD (and $500 per year, every year after). I passed of course.

It's not a secret that with the new gTLDs the registries are the new domainers. There are some decent domains to be found at regular prices but finding those isn't easy (and compared to .com the chance to sell them dramatically lower) as the whole idea of most new gTLD registries was (and mostly still is) that only the leftovers would get regular prices.

Here's the history
It took .com 6 years to get 2m+ registrations with zero competition which is where the New "G"s were in 1 with hundreds of competitors.
t took 8 years to get to 20+m registrations 1992 to 2000, which is where the New "G"s are in 3 with hundreds of competition
It took 12 years to get to a growth rally.

It took .com a while to get to a million registrations because the internet was new then. A lot of people didn't believe in the internet back then. Right now the internet isn't new so it's comparing apples to oranges.
Zero competition (which BTW isn't correct, .net and .org were available in 1985 as well) means nothing when back then there was little demand for anything related to the internet to start with.

Fast-forward to today there's too much supply released in a short amount of time (1000+ gtld extensions) whereas the demand in the last few years didn't grow that fast. If the demand almost stays the same then increasing the supply exponentially is absurd. Basic economics really.

 

[dordomai]

Yes
WHD.Global Domain/Hosting Events
Go.Global Registrar
PayPal.me Obvious
ABC.xyz Investor info
Facebook.Design Design Resources
Coffee.Club Obvious
BrewMasters. Club
Twitch.Tv Adobe

Seen These or have been there
Teach.Vegas Heard about this @ NameCon last yr
Escape.Ninga Heard about this via friend
724.Host @HostingCon LA
Freedom.Press SanFrancisco
Ta.co Seen it advertised but re directs to .com
I've also seen .biz/.co /.ai /.io driving around
BhMedia.co Thru NewCo.co SanFranCisco
Ginger.io Thru NewCo.co SanFranCisco
Kite.io Thru NewCo.co SanFranCisco
AltaMotors.co Electric Motorcycles Bay Area
Cheers

are you using any of these personally? I don't.

Most of these are .io,.me or .co which do get used from time to time.

Without these and without teach.vegas, which redirects:

WHD.Global Domain/Hosting Events
Go.Global Registrar
Facebook.Design Design Resources
Coffee.Club Obvious
BrewMasters. Club
Escape.Ninga Heard about this via friend
724.Host @HostingCon LA
Freedom.Press SanFrancisco

Personally I don't find the list impressive considering the fact that they have been available for 3 years.

You left out, The first and second intro of new tlds were crap and most were restricted.

..biz,.name and .info are not that bad compared to .bid, .fail, .rodeo and .gdn. They were not restricted. I would even say .biz and .info are better than most. The only reason why they are not perceived as good is because they are so unpopular in the real world and are viewed as cheap crap.

.tv, while a ccTLD, is better than 97% of the nGTLDs I would say. .co is also one of the better extensions.

.xxx is not that bad either and wasn't restricted.

 

[Kate]

Whot??
Here's the history
It took .com 6 years to get 2m+ registrations with zero competition which is where the New "G"s were in 1 with hundreds of competitors
It took 8 years to get to 20+m registrations 1992 to 2000, which is where the New "G"s are in 3 with hundreds of competition
It took 12 years to get to a growth rally. Most of the growth for legacy's occurred in the last 12 years.

....

How convenient to compare a start up to an established monopoly
How convenient you assert a parallel of the first 6 years/no competition vs 3years/hundreds of competitors

Happy Hunting

It's true, it's hard to compare 'back then' vs 'now'. The circumstances are completely different.

In 1993 the Internet simply wasn't mature, even the infrastructure was not ready. In the early days few people had an internet connection at home and they were often on 14.4K modems... it's normal that the early growth was less exponential.

While there are millions of new extensions registered today we know very well that the figures are hugely inflated and a big portion of that growth is purely artificial and not sustainable. Until 1999 .com domains cost $50/year. Price dotcom domains at $0.01 and you will see the stats take off
Simple zone file analysis also indicates massive speculation in many extensions (parking rate >= 50%), the registries being the biggest speculators. Of course there is a lot of speculation in dotcom too. But it shows that genuine end user demand is more limited than people think.
The numbers are being skewed and manipulated to mislead people into thinking new extensions are getting a warm reception (Hello Mr Negari ). Of course the raw numbers are not telling the whole story.
New extensions should be mainstream by now if the figures were really truthful and meaningful.

Something I have often noticed over the years, is that newcomers to the industry know they missed boat, but they are hoping that the dotcom boom of the 90s will repeat somehow. Every time a new extension was released in the past, there were domainers to hail it as the next big thing. IDNs at some point were touted as the 'new wave'.
.mobi was the 'new' Internet, the mobile Internet that would bury the desktop
etc

End users are less gullible than domainers on the whole.

 

[jmcc]

Simple zone file analysis also indicates massive speculation in many extensions (parking rate >= 50%), the registries being the biggest speculators.

This is a major problem with relying upon iffy internet "stats. Much of the PPC parking in various gTLDs and ccTLDs is down to the registrars parking undeveloped domains on PPC rather than speculative registrations being PPC parked. This is not immediately apparent from zone file analysis. Measuring usage is a very complex process even for those who actually know what they are doing. The reality is that the percentages of PPC parking, holding pages and domains for sale in some gTLDs are much higher than others. This isn't evidence of massive speculation. It is non-development with small amounts of speculation. (Some new gTLDs are very poor in terms of low development and this is often due to heavy discounting leading to non-development and the widespread use of domain names for landers and affiliates.)

Of course there is a lot of speculation in dotcom too. But it shows that genuine end user demand is more limited than people think.

I would agree with this to an extent. With the legacy gTLDs, there's a considerable overlap between gTLDs in terms of the same domain being registered across various gTLDs. The .COM/NET crossovers are the largest. However there's also a crossover with ccTLDs and .COM and to a lesser extent the non-COM legacy gTLDs.

The numbers are being skewed and manipulated to mislead people into thinking new extensions are getting a warm reception (Hello Mr Negari ). Of course the raw numbers are not telling the whole story.

Discounting and freebies has created massive problems in tracking the popularity of TLDs. The problem with mass discounting as practiced by the .XYZ registry is that it locks a gTLD into a boom and bust cycle. The registry is forced to keep doing new discounting deals with registrars to keep the new registrations ahead of the drops.

New extensions should be mainstream by now if the figures were really truthful and meaningful.

They should be making an impact but it is too early for them to become mainstream just yet. The new gTLDs are competing with the COM/ccTLD axis in most countries and that occupies 80% or more of a country's domain name footprint. Looking at the new gTLDs as a single global market TLDs misses that important point that these new gTLDs, are effectively competing with other TLDs in that 20% of the market. The geo gTLDs are actually competing directly with the local ccTLD. Given their far more competitive market, some of the geo gTLDs are doing a lot better than some expected.

Something I have often noticed over the years, is that newcomers to the industry know they missed boat, but they are hoping that the dotcom boom of the 90s will repeat somehow.

The dotCom boom of the 1990s was followed by the bursting of the bubble in 2000 and the massive drops from 2000 to 2003. This is when a lot of the stalwarts of the domaining business got a lot of domain names when they dropped. The ICANN domain name life cycle has now been subverted by the registrars so that domain names with traffic are diverted to their own auction sites rather being allowed to drop naturally.

Every time a new extension was released in the past, there were domainers to hail it as the next big thing. IDNs at some point were touted as the 'new wave'.
.mobi was the 'new' Internet, the mobile Internet that would bury the desktop
etc

The .MOBI is a special case in that it wasn't competition from other TLDs that killed it but rather technological advances and decisions. Apple's iPhone and the rise of smartphones hit the .MOBI's main selling point for a sparse, almost completely text based, mobile web by improving the quality of displays. The Apple decision to put .COM completion feature also marked the end for .MOBI as a mass market TLD. The quality and resolution of mobile devices (smartphones and tablets) has improved dramatically since 2006 or so.

End users are less gullible than domainers on the whole.

The one thing that a lot of domainers seem to ignore when it comes to new TLDs is the switching cost for end users. End users who have made considerable investments in site development, branding and stationery are far more reluctant to switch to a new TLD and the argument that a new TLD domain name is a "better match" for their business ignores the fact that people already use and know the existing website and domain name.

Regards....jmcc

 

[Kate]

It's true, switching to another extension or just changing the domain name is not an obvious move at all. It can be beneficial if done right but end users are often afraid of disrupting their SEO, mail etc and they are not eager to fix something that ain't broken.
Domainers always solicit end users about their domain names, as if purchasing them was a no-brainer, but they never care to explain how to transition smoothly, nor offer to make the switch for them. It's no wonder the success rate is low, even when the name offered for sale qualifies as an upgrade.

So I have always thought new extensions were geared at new businesses or established companies but for new projects. If you don't mind showing off your rookie status.

 

[Internet.Domains]

When ever I hear that the New G's are a complete failure or won't succeed, I can't help but to think about the Titanic...Every expert, every engineer and every person said, "the Titanic is unsinkable." ....It did not take too long for the Titanic to lay on the bottom, silent, unable to hear the experts.

 

[New.Life]

Say Goodbye to 127M .COM

http://www.registrarstats.com/TLDDomainCounts.aspx

 

[GoKaizen]

Experts...

Monte Cahn - "Another good example is .IRISIH you know, there are a lot of people that relate, people feel like they are Irish, love the Irish,

Howard Neu - "Or .ITALIAN"

Monte - "Right, there is not going to be a .ITALIAN but there is going to be .IRISH. So you know, that is probaby going to be a very successful TLD.

.KIWI has resorted to zone stuffing.

http://www.domainanimal.com/kiwi-gains-170000-domain-registrations-in-two-weeks-yeah-right/

.IRISH has not done well.

https://ntldstats.com/tld/irish

Especially compared to .IE.

https://www.iedr.ie/domain-stats/

The one thing that a lot of domainers seem to ignore when it comes to new TLDs is the switching cost for end users. End users who have made considerable investments in site development, branding and stationery are far more reluctant to switch to a new TLD and the argument that a new TLD domain name is a "better match" for their business ignores the fact that people already use and know the existing website and domain name.

Regards....jmcc

Christa Taylor, who's brokering .BUZZ, has not switched her website for gTLD financial consulting to a new G. Still uses DotTba.COM... should tell you something.

 

[dordomai]

When ever I hear that the New G's are a complete failure or won't succeed, I can't help but to think about the Titanic...Every expert, every engineer and every person said, "the Titanic is unsinkable." ....It did not take too long for the Titanic to lay on the bottom, silent, unable to hear the experts.

.rodeo is unsinkable ?

 

[Internet.Domains]

.rodeo is unsinkable ?

There will be winners and losers with the New G's, just as there are with .Com........Quality is key in relation to both the New G's and .Com......Most of the .coms registered are worthless, its the good quality ones that sell. Same with New G's...

 

[Kate]

Say Goodbye to 127M .COM

Using a one-day diff as proof a TLD is tanking ? A year to year overview would be more representative.
Nonetheless we are expecting a purge of Chinese crap, not just in .com.

Experts...
...
Monte - "Right, there is not going to be a .ITALIAN but there is going to be .IRISH. So you know, that is probaby going to be a very successful TLD.

Successful, maybe he means for the registry or his company. Success is defined by one's own perspective.

 

[dordomai]

Say Goodbye to 127M .COM

Show attachment 44992

http://www.registrarstats.com/TLDDomainCounts.aspx

Chinese crap is dropping. Millions of domains will drop also in the nGTLDs.

 

[Internet.Domains]

Using a one-day diff as proof a TLD is tanking ? A year to year overview would be more representative.
Nonetheless we are expecting a purge of Chinese crap, not just in .com.


Successful, maybe he means for the registry or his company. Success is defined by one's own perspective.

I wouldn't consider Monte as an expert on New G's.....He is doing the New G's a huge disservice by allowing mostly worthless New G's in the Namescon auction. It almost seems as if the auction is rigged to show that the .coms bring in more money. Super premium .coms are in the auction, but sub par New G's (except for Travel.Agency). The Namescon auction will be touted as a success for .com and disaster for New G's, but that is due to the quality......Apples vs. Oranges, when it should be Apples vs. Apples...

 

[wwwweb]

I wouldn't consider Monte as an expert on New G's.....He is doing the New G's a huge disservice by allowing mostly worthless New G's in the Namescon auction. It almost seems as if the auction is rigged to show that the .coms bring in more money. Super premium .coms are in the auction, but sub par New G's (except for Travel.Agency). The Namescon auction will be touted as a success for .com and disaster for New G's, but that is due to the quality......Apples vs. Oranges, when it should be Apples vs. Apples...

Well said most of these guys are sales guys, they will go where the commission is, right now gtld's give you a bigger slice of the pie because they need to in order to grow.

.com is more mature, and saturated, and doesn't need to, as renewals are around $8, so margins are tight.

Another issue with GTLD's, many people are clueless about is T&C, each company has it's own contracts, and the most worrisome one is in regards to price increases, as there is no real cap.

I own both, but I feel more secure within my .com ownership. Try getting a deal wrapped up with an end user, then have it go sideways when it comes to them having to pay another $300 to transfer the domain to their register. Not fun

 

[Internet.Domains]

"I own both, but I feel more secure within my .com ownership. "

Exactly. As an analogy I will use the stock market...The .coms are like "blue chip" stocks. Relatively safe, liquid and generally more expensive with tight returns. The New G's are like "penny stocks". Risky, not as easy to sell, but can offer a large return at times....There is money to be made in both.

 

[dordomai]

Say Goodbye to 127M .COM

Show attachment 44992

http://www.registrarstats.com/TLDDomainCounts.aspx

https://namestat.org/s/newgtld-summary

New gTLD Total Registrations 24,915,818 ➡
- added 34,477
- removed 68,955
Net Gain -34,478

 

[JB Lions]

after new gTLDs boom!

Dropped over 160,000 in last week.

https://ntldstats.com/tld

Summer is coming.

 

[Al Cohol]

I wouldn't consider Monte as an expert on New G's.....He is doing the New G's a huge disservice by allowing mostly worthless New G's in the Namescon auction. It almost seems as if the auction is rigged to show that the .coms bring in more money. Super premium .coms are in the auction, but sub par New G's (except for Travel.Agency). The Namescon auction will be touted as a success for .com and disaster for New G's, but that is due to the quality......Apples vs. Oranges, when it should be Apples vs. Apples...

How can you run an auction with registry reserved nGTLD's, most of which have ridiculous pricing on both the acquisition and renewal side.

It is bad enough that the public has zero awareness of the nGTLD's but coupled with the ridiculous pricing structure of "premium" names this experiment failed before launch.

The nGTLD's at auction at Namescon are the cream of the crop in terms of investor owned names and it is sad but emblematic of this disastrous rollout nGTLD's.