Chad, let this breakdown help you:
1. The registrar will hold onto the expired domain name from 1-45 calendar
days. If not renewed by then, they'll delete it from their own records.
2. Once deleted by the registrar, the Registry will put it in Redemption Period
(.com and .net) or Pending Delete/Restorable (.org, .info, and .biz) for 30
calendar days in their database. The last registered owner has one very last
chance of getting it back before it reaches the point of no return.
3. If not "redeemed" by the domain's last registrar by then, the Registry will
put the name on "Pending Delete" for 5 calendar days before releasing it on
the 6th, ideally, at around 1-2PM EST.
4. Check the last updated date from the Registry, then add 36 days from it.
It'll tell you when the name will, ideally, be available.
On the other hand, if the name in question is a rather common or very highly
desired name, you might have to "fight" for it using the "backorder" services
like SnapNames, Pool, etc. That is, if you really want that name and you have
the money to burn.
Is the name that important?